South Pacific Oscillation contributes to multi-year ENSOs

Abstract

Multi-year El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, where the warming (El Niño) or cooling (La Niña) extends beyond a single year, have become increasingly prominent in recent decades. Using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) plays a crucial, previously unrecognized role in determining whether ENSO evolves into a multi-year event. Specifically, when an El Niño (La Niña) triggers a positive (negative) SPO in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere during its decaying phase, the SPO feedbacks onto the tropical Pacific through the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature mechanism, helping sustain ENSO into a multi-year event. This SPO–ENSO interaction is absent in single-year ENSO events. Furthermore, whether ENSO can trigger the SPO depends systematically on the central SST anomaly location for El Niños and the anomaly intensity for La Niñas, with interference from atmospheric internal variability. These findings highlight the importance of including off-equatorial processes from the Southern Hemisphere in studies of ENSO complexity dynamics.