Mi Yan, Zhengyu Liu, Bin Wang, Xinwei Kong, Liang Ning, Qin Wen, Jian Liu
{"title":"The response of AUSM to precession forcing and its relation to EASM and EAWM","authors":"Mi Yan, Zhengyu Liu, Bin Wang, Xinwei Kong, Liang Ning, Qin Wen, Jian Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01084-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01084-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The East Asian monsoon (EAM) and the Australian monsoon (AUM), which constitute the two subsystems of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, are dynamically linked through cross-equatorial flows while also responding distinctly to external forcings. Although previous studies have examined their relationships across various timescales, their connection at the orbital timescale remains underexplored. Through a series of simulations, we demonstrate that Australian Summer Monsoon (AUSM) precipitation varies out of phase with East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation at the precession timescale due to local insolation changes. At the same timescale, the relationship between AUSM circulation and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation is weak. This weak linkage arises from the precession-induced inter-hemispheric insolation gradient, which diminishes cross-equatorial flow and consequently weakens the dynamical links between AUSM and EAWM circulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144097345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Effy B. John, Karthik Balaguru, L. Ruby Leung, Gregory R. Foltz, Samson M. Hagos
{"title":"Faster recovery of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-induced cold wakes in recent decades","authors":"Effy B. John, Karthik Balaguru, L. Ruby Leung, Gregory R. Foltz, Samson M. Hagos","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01029-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01029-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Intense winds associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) generate surface ocean cooling in their wakes, which can persist for several weeks in their aftermath. While multi-decadal observations of the sea surface have shown a substantial warming of the ocean, long-term changes in cold wake recovery time remain largely unknown. Here we find a trend toward faster recovery of TC cold wakes in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) since 2001. This is due primarily to a decrease in the strength of the North Atlantic trade winds, which reduces evaporative cooling of the ocean. The faster damping of TC cold wakes has led to a significant increase in the intensification of subsequent TCs that encounter lingering wakes from prior TCs, with a magnitude that is about 9% of that from long-term warming of the ocean. Finally, earth system model simulations indicate that the observed decrease in the cold wake recovery time will likely continue into the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144087880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The synergistic effect of the North Pacific and the North Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature on winter–spring cold events in Eastern North America","authors":"Kai Ji, Ruiqiang Ding, Linlu Mei","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00892-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00892-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cold events occur in North America (NA) frequently, which pose a significant threat to extensive damage to traffic and agriculture. Research on cold events in NA has mainly focused on the individual impacts of the sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, with less analysis of their synergistic effect. Here we utilize observational data and numerical experiments to show that the positive North Pacific Victoria mode (VM) and the negative North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST exert significant synergistic effects on the winter–spring cold events in eastern NA via Rossby waves propagation. Specifically, the VM-related negative western North Pacific (WNP) SST anomalies are linked to upper-tropospheric wind convergence anomalies in situ, which excite a Rossby wave train from the WNP to the North Atlantic and thus strengthen the high-level negative geopotential height anomalies (GHAs) over eastern NA and the positive air-ocean feedback over the North Atlantic. As a result, the negative GHAs strengthened by the positive VM and negative NTA SST cause increased extreme cold events. Further results reveal that the negative GHAs and cold events in eastern NA during the co-occurrence of the positive VM and negative NTA SST events are more than three times stronger than those for the two kinds of single events. This study suggests that the synergistic effect of the positive VM and negative NTA SST anomalies could advance our comprehensive understanding of the combined effect of the inter-basin SST anomalies on the mid-to-high-latitude climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144087879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yajun Wu, Jianfei Peng, Xiaoguo Wang, Peiji Liu, Yan Liu, Fuyang Zhang, Jinsheng Zhang, Bin Sun, Jingqiao Zhang, Kai Song, Pengfei Song, Lin Wu, Ting Wang, Song Guo, Hongjun Mao
{"title":"Emissions and potential tracer screening of semivolatile/intermediate-volatility organic compounds from urban vehicle fleets","authors":"Yajun Wu, Jianfei Peng, Xiaoguo Wang, Peiji Liu, Yan Liu, Fuyang Zhang, Jinsheng Zhang, Bin Sun, Jingqiao Zhang, Kai Song, Pengfei Song, Lin Wu, Ting Wang, Song Guo, Hongjun Mao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01078-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01078-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Semi-/intermediate volatile organic compounds (S/IVOCs) are important precursors for secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and ozone formation. Vehicle emissions from real-world vehicle fleets are significant anthropogenic source, but their emission profiles and chemical fingerprints remain inadequately characterized. Here, we combined tunnel observation with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry to investigate vehicular S/IVOCs emissions. We identified 256 vehicle-related compounds with fleet-average emission factors (EFs) of 16.4 ± 12.1 mg·km<sup>−1</sup>·veh<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>, comprising 67.2% VOCs, 24.3% IVOCs, and 8.5% SVOCs. VOCs accounted for the majority of ozone formation potential (OFP, 84.8%), whereas VOCs, IVOCs, and SVOCs contributed to SOA formation potential at different times. Importantly, our speciated-based SOA estimation enhanced SOA production estimates by 44.1–76.9% compared to traditional approach. We identified eight potential vehicle-related tracers in S/IVOC range through volcano plots and hierarchical clustering analysis, which could benefit future source apportionments. Our work also offers a novel perspective for screening tracers from various sources beyond vehicle-related emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"132 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Assessing direct radiative effect of aging black carbon using an advanced aerosol optics module AI-NAOS and the climate model CAM6","authors":"Xuan Wang, Xingru Wu, Lei Bi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01080-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01080-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Large uncertainties still exist in the estimation of black carbon (BC) radiative forcing due to incomplete representation of BC optical properties. To address this, this study employed the AI-based nonspherical aerosol optical scheme (AI-NAOS), coupled with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), to comprehensively estimate the optical properties of the aging BC and its direct radiative effect (DRE). The AI-NAOS was obtained from a database of accurate optical properties of encapsulated fractal aggregates computed from the invariant imbedding T-matrix method (IITM). With this scheme, the aging progress of BC in the CAM6 can be explicitly resolved by the volume fraction and the optical properties can be efficiently inferred from the deep neural network (DNN) in real time. Based on decadal-long simulations from 2010 to 2020, the BC DRE of fractal aggregates was estimated to be +0.3 w/m<sup>2</sup> globally and +1.3 w/m<sup>2</sup> over East Asia, representing decreases of 40.0% and 38.1%, respectively, compared to spherical assumptions. Additionally, an idealized scenario was considered where BC quantities were increased tenfold. In this scenario, the aging process was minimized due to insufficient hygroscopic aerosols for encapsulating BC aerosols. Compared to the normal scenario, the incremental ratio of radiative effects based on the fractal aggregate model was 11.1 globally and 9.1 over East Asia, whereas it was 7.6 globally and 5.3 over East Asia based on spherical assumptions. These results indicate that, compared to spherical assumptions, stronger enhancement of BC DRE could be produced using more realistic models in scenarios with higher BC emission. Whether the radiative effect is reduced or enhanced using realistic particle models depend on the competing roles of particle nonsphericity and encapsulation (lensing effect) in influencing BC absorption capabilities.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144083200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet","authors":"Junyi Xiu, Xianan Jiang, Renhe Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01076-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01076-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiawei Xu, Ben Silver, Rong Tang, Nan Wang, Xin Huang, Aijun Ding, Steve R. Arnold
{"title":"A model assessment of the relationship between urban greening and ozone air quality in China: a study of three metropolitan regions","authors":"Jiawei Xu, Ben Silver, Rong Tang, Nan Wang, Xin Huang, Aijun Ding, Steve R. Arnold","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01054-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01054-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impact of biogenic emissions on ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) has significant implications for air quality management. We analyze biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions resulting from urban greening in three major Chinese cities, and impacts on tropospheric ozone. Urban greening BVOCs contributed 1.9 ppb (2.5%), 1.9 ppb (3.3%), and 3.6 ppb (5.9%) to O<sub>3</sub> formation in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, respectively. Temperature-driven enhancement in urban BVOCs produces significantly enhanced O<sub>3</sub> on hot days. Guangzhou shows the highest summer temperatures, and the impact of the BVOC isoprene on O<sub>3</sub> is more significant. The urban BVOC contribution to O<sub>3</sub> is concentrated downwind of each city, due to transport processes. Estimated O<sub>3</sub>-related mortality in the cities was 900–2000 people during summertime, with 6–14% of the O<sub>3</sub>-related deaths attributable to urban BVOC emissions. The potential contribution of urban isoprene-emitting vegetation to air quality should be considered alongside the potential benefits of urban greening in future policy-making decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Methane emissions from industrial wastewater treatment systems decoupling from industrial growth in China over the past two decades","authors":"Ying Chen, Haiyan Li, Lu Lu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01074-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01074-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Industrial wastewater typically contains high concentrations of contaminants and should be treated before being released into the environment, discharged to a sewer, or recycled for reuse. Large amounts of greenhouse gases are produced during the treatment processes of industrial wastewater, yet are scarcely considered in the emission estimation of the wastewater sector. Here, we present a comprehensive methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) emission inventory for industrial wastewater treatment in China from 2000 to 2021, employing industry-specific emission factors (EF), contrasting with previous estimations that rely on a uniform EF without differentiating between industries. We demonstrate here that total CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from industrial wastewater treatment in China were 2.4 Tg in 2000 and 1.4 Tg in 2021, showing an increasing trend during 2000–2012 and a substantial decline afterward, which is attributed to government-led control measures aimed at promoting cleaner production practices and optimizing industrial structures. Eastern coastal provinces exhibit higher emissions than inland regions, with Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, and Jiangsu collectively contributing more than 50% of total emissions. We identify the Textile and Light Industry as the pivotal sector for mitigating CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from industrial wastewater treatment. This sector is responsible for 82.9% of total CH<sub>4</sub> emissions, despite contributing less than 19.0% to the national total value-added industrial output. By 2035, around 48% of CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from industrial wastewater treatment could be reduced, primarily driven by stringent mitigation measures in the Textile and Light Industry. Our study reveals a decoupling relationship between CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from industrial wastewater treatment and industrial growth and proposes the Textile and Light Industry as a priority sector for CH<sub>4</sub> mitigation efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143945766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dazhi Xi, Hiroyuki Murakami, Ning Lin, Michael Oppenheimer
{"title":"Shifts of future tropical cyclone genesis date in north atlantic and north pacific basins: an ensemble modeling investigation","authors":"Dazhi Xi, Hiroyuki Murakami, Ning Lin, Michael Oppenheimer","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01077-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01077-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Changes in the tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal cycle can have profound impacts on compound hazards associated with TCs, such as consecutive summer rainfall and TC-heatwave compound events. However, only a few studies have explored future changes in TC seasonality, and they reach discrepant conclusions. In this study, we perform a high-resolution coupled climate simulation to study the future TC seasonal cycle and investigate the mechanisms of possible changes. The model simulation shows that, under the shared socio-economic pathway 5 8.5 scenario, the mean genesis date will shift significantly to later in the season in Northeastern Pacific (ENP) and North Atlantic (NA) but shift to later or earlier depending on the subregions in Northwestern Pacific (WNP). These shifts in TC seasonal cycles are induced by seasonally asymmetric changes in TC-favorable environmental conditions, which arise from seasonally asymmetric changes in large-scale circulation patterns, including the monsoon troughs, jet stream, and tropical zonal circulation.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143979701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Diana Francis, Ricardo Fonseca, Narendra Nelli, Charfeddine Cherif, Yesobu Yarragunta, George Zittis, Andries Jan de Vries
{"title":"From cause to consequence: examining the historic April 2024 rainstorm in the United Arab Emirates through the lens of climate change","authors":"Diana Francis, Ricardo Fonseca, Narendra Nelli, Charfeddine Cherif, Yesobu Yarragunta, George Zittis, Andries Jan de Vries","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01073-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01073-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In April 2024, the United Arab Emirates experienced unprecedented rainfall, triggering severe flooding and widespread disruption. Here we investigate the driving mechanisms, localized impacts, and potential influence of human-driven climate change on this extraordinary event. Our findings strongly suggest that anthropogenic climate change is amplifying the frequency of extreme events like that of 16 April 2024. The event was primarily fueled by the interaction of a potential vorticity streamer with an active Red Sea Trough, a powerful upper-level jet, and the advection of warm, moisture-laden air from a warmer Arabian Sea. High-resolution satellite data reveal a clear link between urbanization, population density, and the severity of flood impacts in major cities, alongside a remarkable greening of the desert that lingered into the summer months.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143979703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}