Co-drivers of air pollutant and CO2 emissions in China from 2000 to 2020

IF 8.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Wenxin Cao, Yixuan Zheng, Shaohui Zhang, Zbigniew Klimont, Xian’en Wang, Fangming Jiang, Zhulin Qi, Chuchu Chen, Yueyi Feng, Zechen Zhang, Hongkuan Zang, Yu Lei, Gang Yan
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Abstract

Revealing how historical energy and environmental policies interacted with socioeconomic factors to shape the trends in air pollutant and CO2 emissions is crucial for developing effective future pollution-carbon co-control strategies. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework combining a detailed sectoral emission inventory, index decomposition analysis, and a clustering algorithm to investigate China’s synergetic patterns of air pollutant and CO2 emissions across 15 socioeconomic sectors from 2000 to 2020 and uncover the co-drivers behind these trends, with detailed temporal, sectoral, and spatial dynamics revealed. Our analysis suggests that historical policies have effectively curbed air pollutant emissions, while abating CO2 emissions remains a challenge. Energy and climate policies, particularly those focused on structural adjustments, are increasingly instrumental in driving pollution-carbon co-reduction. Compared to the earlier period, the fractional contribution of energy and climate policies to emission reductions of SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO2 increased by 1.3-8.6 times during 2010-2020, respectively. Substantial regional heterogeneity in emission co-drivers underscores the need for tailored strategies, such as adopting advanced energy-saving technologies in areas dominated by energy-intensive industries and accelerating the clean energy transition in regions endowed with renewable resources. Our study would provide actionable insights for formulating effective pollution-carbon co-control strategies in China and beyond.

Abstract Image

2000 - 2020年中国大气污染物和CO2排放的共同驱动因素
揭示历史能源和环境政策如何与社会经济因素相互作用,从而形成空气污染物和二氧化碳排放的趋势,对于制定有效的未来污染-碳联合控制战略至关重要。在此,我们开发了一个综合分析框架,结合详细的行业排放清单、指数分解分析和聚类算法,研究了2000年至2020年中国15个社会经济部门空气污染物和二氧化碳排放的协同模式,揭示了这些趋势背后的共同驱动因素,并揭示了详细的时间、行业和空间动态。我们的分析表明,历史上的政策已经有效地遏制了空气污染物的排放,而减少二氧化碳的排放仍然是一个挑战。能源和气候政策,特别是那些以结构调整为重点的政策,在推动污染-碳共同减排方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。2010-2020年,能源和气候政策对SO2、NOx、PM2.5和CO2减排的贡献率分别增加了1.3 ~ 8.6倍。排放共同驱动因素的巨大区域异质性凸显出有必要制定有针对性的战略,例如在能源密集型产业占主导地位的地区采用先进的节能技术,在拥有可再生资源的地区加快清洁能源转型。我们的研究将为中国和其他国家制定有效的污染-碳协同控制战略提供可操作的见解。
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来源期刊
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.30%
发文量
87
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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