Wenxin Cao, Yixuan Zheng, Shaohui Zhang, Zbigniew Klimont, Xian’en Wang, Fangming Jiang, Zhulin Qi, Chuchu Chen, Yueyi Feng, Zechen Zhang, Hongkuan Zang, Yu Lei, Gang Yan
{"title":"Co-drivers of air pollutant and CO2 emissions in China from 2000 to 2020","authors":"Wenxin Cao, Yixuan Zheng, Shaohui Zhang, Zbigniew Klimont, Xian’en Wang, Fangming Jiang, Zhulin Qi, Chuchu Chen, Yueyi Feng, Zechen Zhang, Hongkuan Zang, Yu Lei, Gang Yan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01124-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Revealing how historical energy and environmental policies interacted with socioeconomic factors to shape the trends in air pollutant and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions is crucial for developing effective future pollution-carbon co-control strategies. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework combining a detailed sectoral emission inventory, index decomposition analysis, and a clustering algorithm to investigate China’s synergetic patterns of air pollutant and CO<sub>2</sub> emissions across 15 socioeconomic sectors from 2000 to 2020 and uncover the co-drivers behind these trends, with detailed temporal, sectoral, and spatial dynamics revealed. Our analysis suggests that historical policies have effectively curbed air pollutant emissions, while abating CO<sub>2</sub> emissions remains a challenge. Energy and climate policies, particularly those focused on structural adjustments, are increasingly instrumental in driving pollution-carbon co-reduction. Compared to the earlier period, the fractional contribution of energy and climate policies to emission reductions of SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>, PM<sub>2.5,</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> increased by 1.3-8.6 times during 2010-2020, respectively. Substantial regional heterogeneity in emission co-drivers underscores the need for tailored strategies, such as adopting advanced energy-saving technologies in areas dominated by energy-intensive industries and accelerating the clean energy transition in regions endowed with renewable resources. Our study would provide actionable insights for formulating effective pollution-carbon co-control strategies in China and beyond.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01124-7","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Revealing how historical energy and environmental policies interacted with socioeconomic factors to shape the trends in air pollutant and CO2 emissions is crucial for developing effective future pollution-carbon co-control strategies. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework combining a detailed sectoral emission inventory, index decomposition analysis, and a clustering algorithm to investigate China’s synergetic patterns of air pollutant and CO2 emissions across 15 socioeconomic sectors from 2000 to 2020 and uncover the co-drivers behind these trends, with detailed temporal, sectoral, and spatial dynamics revealed. Our analysis suggests that historical policies have effectively curbed air pollutant emissions, while abating CO2 emissions remains a challenge. Energy and climate policies, particularly those focused on structural adjustments, are increasingly instrumental in driving pollution-carbon co-reduction. Compared to the earlier period, the fractional contribution of energy and climate policies to emission reductions of SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and CO2 increased by 1.3-8.6 times during 2010-2020, respectively. Substantial regional heterogeneity in emission co-drivers underscores the need for tailored strategies, such as adopting advanced energy-saving technologies in areas dominated by energy-intensive industries and accelerating the clean energy transition in regions endowed with renewable resources. Our study would provide actionable insights for formulating effective pollution-carbon co-control strategies in China and beyond.
期刊介绍:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols.
The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.