npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第6页

Projected changes in extreme windstorms and high-wind cyclone tracks across model resolutions 极端风暴和强风气旋路径在模式分辨率上的预估变化

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01526-1

Rui Zhang, Olivier Asselin, Dominique Paquin, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor

{"title":"Projected changes in extreme windstorms and high-wind cyclone tracks across model resolutions","authors":"Rui Zhang, Olivier Asselin, Dominique Paquin, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01526-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01526-1","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme windstorms cause substantial socioeconomic damage across many Northern Hemisphere regions, yet uncertainty remains whether their frequency will increase or decrease under global warming. Here, using a multi-member ensemble of HighResMIP global models (low- to high-resolution, coupled and atmosphere-only) together with regional dynamically downscaled simulations, we investigate future changes of extreme windstorms and their dynamical origins. Results suggest extreme windstorms over the northeastern USA and southeastern Canada will increase significantly, regardless of model resolution or coupling strategy, and consistently across global and regional simulations. This increase occurs despite a decline in overall mid-latitude cyclone numbers and is driven by more intense cyclones — including transitioning tropical cyclones — tracking into the region. Low-resolution simulations produce more frequent and larger windstorms than high-resolution ones, due to the lower 99th-percentile wind speeds and hence exceedance threshold and their larger eddy length scale which implies overestimation of the Rossby deformation radius. Low-resolution simulations also exhibit higher low-level baroclinicity and available potential energy (APE), yet weaker eddy kinetic energy (EKE) than simulations performed at high resolution. This indicates less efficient APE-to-EKE conversion. Our findings reveal a robust projected increase in extreme windstorm risk for northeastern North America and underscore that quantitative projections of synoptic-scale hazards require atmospheric grid spacing of ~25–50 km, finer than the ~100 km traditionally considered adequate for synoptic-scale modeling.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A cross-timescale oceanic bridge linking intraseasonal atmospheric forcing to ENSO predictability 连接季节内大气强迫与ENSO可预测性的跨时间尺度海洋桥梁

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01531-4

Lina Song, Jianing Wang, Yuanlong Li, Fan Wang

{"title":"A cross-timescale oceanic bridge linking intraseasonal atmospheric forcing to ENSO predictability","authors":"Lina Song, Jianing Wang, Yuanlong Li, Fan Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01531-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01531-4","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical western Pacific upper ocean circulation is traditionally regarded as a passive ENSO response, yet its active role in ENSO preconditioning remains unclear. Using observations and model experiments during 1993–2025, we show that pre-winter intraseasonal zonal current variability (U ISV) systematically intensifies before El Niño and weakens before La Niña. Approximately 80% of ISV amplitude is explained by Indian Ocean Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) related wind forcing. Repeated MJO-driven U ISV generates a persistent low-frequency response through cumulative upper-ocean dynamical adjustment, enhancing Kelvin-wave-induced zonal heat advection and central-Pacific heat accumulation. U ISV intensifies approximately 8 months before ENSO onset, provides complementary long-lead upstream predictive information for ENSO preconditioning beyond monthly-mean circulation alone, and improves Niño-3.4 reconstruction (r = 0.73). Our findings identify a cross-timescale ocean dynamical bridge through which repeated MJO-driven intraseasonal ocean variability contribute to seasonal-to-interannual climate variability and marine heat waves.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Two decades of observations capture rapid warming of marginal permafrost across the 0 °C threshold 二十年的观测捕捉到边缘永久冻土的快速升温超过0°C的阈值

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-09-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01528-z

Chenyang Peng, Yu Sheng, Jichun Wu, Jia Liu, Shizhen Li, Yajuan Zao, Dongliang Luo

{"title":"Two decades of observations capture rapid warming of marginal permafrost across the 0 °C threshold","authors":"Chenyang Peng, Yu Sheng, Jichun Wu, Jia Liu, Shizhen Li, Yajuan Zao, Dongliang Luo","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01528-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01528-z","url":null,"abstract":"Marginal warm permafrost is nearing 0 °C, but its transition across this threshold remains poorly constrained by limited long-term observations. We analyzed up to two decades of ground-temperature records from 59 boreholes on the northeastern Qinghai–Xizang Plateau, including four sites undergoing advanced degradation near or across 0 °C. Bias-corrected ERA5-Land data showed rapid regional warming (median 0.56 °C decade−1), consistent warming across the 4100–4600 m elevation range containing most boreholes, and an upward shift in mean annual air temperature beginning in 2021. Several boreholes remained near 0 °C for prolonged periods despite atmospheric warming, indicating latent-heat buffering and delayed warming at depth. As buffering weakened, ground temperatures shifted upward and warmed more rapidly. At the most rapidly degrading site, a late-season subzero layer approximately 13 m thick disappeared between 2021 and 2023 after several years of near-zero temperatures. Profile changes were consistent with talik development and limited thermal recovery, although annual late-season measurements cannot confirm year-round talik conditions. Contrasting vegetation greenness coincided with differing ground-temperature responses, suggesting that local surface conditions influenced degradation timing. These observations show that marginal permafrost can undergo rapid, nonlinear degradation near 0 °C and that continued regional warming may promote similar transitions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Non-stationary atmospheric pathways limit seasonal predictability of Eurasian autumn snow impacts on East Asian winter temperature 非平稳大气路径限制了欧亚秋雪对东亚冬季温度影响的季节可预测性

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-31 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01529-y

OkYeon Kim, Suyeon Moon

{"title":"Non-stationary atmospheric pathways limit seasonal predictability of Eurasian autumn snow impacts on East Asian winter temperature","authors":"OkYeon Kim, Suyeon Moon","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01529-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01529-y","url":null,"abstract":"Eurasian autumn snow has been widely regarded as a source of East Asian winter predictability, yet its influence is strongly non-stationary. Here we show that this non-stationarity reflects a reorganization of the dynamical pathway rather than a simple loss of snow forcing. Using multiple snow products, ERA5 diagnostics, and ECMWF SEAS5 hindcasts, we identify a spatially organized October Eurasian snow mode that is more closely linked to East Asian winter temperature than basin-mean snow loading. Observations indicate that snow memory partly persists into early winter, whereas the intermediate atmospheric pathway is substantially less stable: tropospheric circulation adjustment weakens, and the snow-WAFz and WAFz-AO10 relationships are weak, seasonally and vertically dependent, and not consistently significant across periods. Despite this variability in the intermediate pathway, the October snow-East Asian winter temperature relationship remains comparatively robust across periods. The final East Asian temperature response is limited by a reorganized downward/regional projection. SEAS5 reproduces the upstream snow predictor reasonably well but fails most clearly at the WAFz-AO10 stage, where none of the ensemble members reproduces the observed sign of the relationship. This contrast identifies dynamical pathway fidelity, rather than snow representation alone, as a key constraint on seasonal predictability.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148899612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rising vapor pressure deficit and fuel availability exacerbate the dispersion of intra-annual burned area 不断上升的蒸汽压差和燃料可用性加剧了年内燃烧面积的分散

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01524-3

Hongtao Xu, Ziqian Zhong, Rui Tang, Yuanfang Chai, Fei Zhang, Yichen Li, Xiaoqi Hu

{"title":"Rising vapor pressure deficit and fuel availability exacerbate the dispersion of intra-annual burned area","authors":"Hongtao Xu, Ziqian Zhong, Rui Tang, Yuanfang Chai, Fei Zhang, Yichen Li, Xiaoqi Hu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01524-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01524-3","url":null,"abstract":"Continuing climate warming is creating more favorable burning conditions both within and outside the core fire seasons, such as drier vegetation, increased fuel load, and more frequent lightning. These changes are expected to reshape wildfire regimes, with profound implications for wildfire management practices and the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, limited knowledge exists regarding how the seasonal regimes of wildfires respond to continued warming and what consequences this has for fire-related carbon emissions. Our analysis of satellite-derived burned area data reveals a widespread increase in the dispersion of burned area, particularly in most regions of Eurasia, South America, and Australia. Nonetheless, estimates based on the fire weather index tend to underestimate these increases. This increasing dispersion of burned area is primarily driven by increased vapor pressure deficit and fuel availability, which promote more burned areas outside the core fire season. Nevertheless, the increased dispersion of burned area does not lead to a synchronous rise in the dispersion of fire-related carbon emissions. This decoupling occurs because carbon emission per unit of burned area significantly rises within the core fire season but insignificantly changes outside it. Our results highlight the critical role of warming in reshaping seasonal wildfire regimes and have important implications for wildfire management and global carbon budget estimation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global fire activity exacerbates extreme PM2.5 pollution 全球火灾活动加剧了极端的PM2.5污染

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01527-0

Qian Wu, Song Hong, Chao He, Lei Zhang, Shuai Shi, Bin Chen, Lanzhou Chen

{"title":"Global fire activity exacerbates extreme PM2.5 pollution","authors":"Qian Wu, Song Hong, Chao He, Lei Zhang, Shuai Shi, Bin Chen, Lanzhou Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01527-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01527-0","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme PM2.5 pollution events pose substantial threats to public health and environmental sustainability. However, under climate change, the relationship between global fire activity and extreme PM2.5 pollution remains insufficiently understood. Using 0.25° × 0.25° gridded data from 2004 to 2023, this study employs quantile regression models to assess the influence of global fire activity on extreme PM2.5 pollution. Results show that fire activity has a significant positive relationship with PM2.5 concentrations across all quantiles, with this relationship becoming particularly pronounced under extreme pollution conditions. At the 95th percentile, the fire-related regression coefficient reaches 0.899 (p < 0.05), which is 2.9 and 4.5 times higher than the coefficients at the 50th (0.310) and 10th (0.197) percentiles, respectively. Spatial autocorrelation analysis further reveals that regions where extreme PM2.5 pollution is strongly associated with fire activity exhibit significant spatial clustering (Moran’s I = 0.036, p < 0.01). Notably, Canada in North America, Siberia in Asia, Brazil in South America, and Indonesia in Southeast Asia are identified as the most strongly affected regions. These findings improve understanding of the role of fire activity in extreme PM2.5 pollution and provide important evidence for strengthening global air quality management and emergency response strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unintended winter–early spring warming over North America caused by tropical and subtropical deployment of marine cloud brightening 热带和亚热带海洋云变亮的部署造成了北美地区冬季和早春的意外变暖

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01525-2

Siyu Zhao, Long Cao, Yu Fang, Panxi Dai, Jiaying Zhang

{"title":"Unintended winter–early spring warming over North America caused by tropical and subtropical deployment of marine cloud brightening","authors":"Siyu Zhao, Long Cao, Yu Fang, Panxi Dai, Jiaying Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01525-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01525-2","url":null,"abstract":"Marine cloud brightening (MCB) aims to reduce global warming, but its regional impacts remain uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model, we implement MCB over a portion of tropical and subtropical oceans under SSP2-4.5. Despite overall cooling, MCB induces significant warming over mid-eastern North America in winter-to-early spring. The response originates mainly in the tropical and subtropical eastern Pacific, where MCB cools the atmosphere by reflecting solar radiation. This change modifies extratropical circulations through Gill-type and Rossby wave responses. The circulation changes warm mid-eastern North America via two pathways: suppressed synoptic disturbance activity, which reduces cloud cover and increases downward shortwave radiation, and enhanced positive temperature advection. This MCB-induced warming resembles that associated with a strong La Niña event, with implications for snowpack and water resources. Our results highlight potential unintended risks of regional MCB and the need for a better understanding of process-level teleconnection response to climate intervention strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Maritime Continent freshening intensifies the observed La Niña-like warming 海洋大陆的清新加剧了观测到的La Niña-like变暖

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01523-4

Ziyang Cao, Mingting Li, Arnold L. Gordon, Dongxiao Wang

{"title":"Maritime Continent freshening intensifies the observed La Niña-like warming","authors":"Ziyang Cao, Mingting Li, Arnold L. Gordon, Dongxiao Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01523-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01523-4","url":null,"abstract":"The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent (MC) is the site of intense atmospheric convection, associated with the Walker Circulation, which significantly influences global climate. Observations reveal decreasing sea surface salinity (SSS) in the MC region since 1960, which was a consequence of enhanced freshwater flux. The observed sea surface temperature (SST) increasing trends of the tropical Pacific in the past decades exhibit La Niña-like patterns, with enhanced western tropical Pacific warming and eastern cooling, which diverge from many climate model results. This study explores how MC freshening influences the La Niña-like pattern under global warming. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that imposed MC freshening enhances near-surface stratification, shoaling the mixed layer and amplifying western Pacific warming. The intensified zonal SST gradient strengthens the Walker circulation, enhancing easterly winds and equatorial upwelling, thereby cooling the eastern Pacific. CMIP6 simulations analysis corroborates that salinity-modulated stratification significantly influences Pacific SST patterns, underscoring the need for improved observations and model performance of the MC region water cycle, as well as associated upper-ocean thermohaline stratification patterns.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global-regional nested forecasting of soil moisture 全球-区域土壤湿度的巢式预测

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01522-5

Quan. Zhang, Yuze. Sun, Wenbin. Liu, Yichuan. Zhang, Jiaolong. Ying, Yanyan. Huang, Yanfei. Xiang, Dongxiao. Xu, Shuo. Wang, Le. Yu, Xiaomeng. Huang

{"title":"Global-regional nested forecasting of soil moisture","authors":"Quan. Zhang, Yuze. Sun, Wenbin. Liu, Yichuan. Zhang, Jiaolong. Ying, Yanyan. Huang, Yanfei. Xiang, Dongxiao. Xu, Shuo. Wang, Le. Yu, Xiaomeng. Huang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-026-01522-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01522-5","url":null,"abstract":"Soil moisture is a key component of the Earth system and is important for ecosystem functioning and water resources. However, existing approaches still face limitations in soil moisture forecast skill and spatial resolution. Here, we develop an Artificial Soil Moisture Forecasting Model (ASM) with a global–regional nested framework that links global low-resolution prediction with regional high-resolution forecasting. ASM consistently outperforms representative deep learning models across forecast lead times, with ablation experiments confirming the contributions of its major architectural components. Compared with ECMWF, ASM more closely reproduces ERA5 soil moisture fields and preserves greater spatial heterogeneity at 1° resolution. At a 14 day lead time, ASM achieves an ACC of 0.612, demonstrating reliable early-subseasonal forecast skill. At the regional scale, ASM provides 0.1° soil moisture forecasts for Henan Province, China, and Southern Africa, while improving extreme drought detection relative to ECMWF-driven forecasts. Attribution analysis shows that antecedent soil moisture is the dominant predictor, accounting for 61.2% of the total attribution and highlighting the importance of soil moisture memory. Soil-moisture-only autoregressive experiments further highlight that external atmospheric forcing remains essential for maintaining forecast skill. Overall, ASM provides an scalable and interpretable framework for synoptic-to-early-subseasonal soil moisture forecasting.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"180 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148853471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Indian Ocean Dipole extremes extend seasonal predictability of North China Plain summer heat 印度洋偶极子极端事件延长了华北平原夏季高温的季节性可预测性

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-08-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-026-01521-6

Zhaolu Hou, Jianping Li, Lei Wang, Yina Diao, Shixin Zhen

引用次数: 0