npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第8页

Drivers of mesoscale convective aggregation and spatial humidity variability in the tropical western Pacific

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00848-2

Adrian Mark Tompkins, Alejandro Casallas, Michie Vianca De Vera

引用次数: 0

Increased longitudinal separation of equatorial rainfall responses to Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño under global warming

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00933-0

Zixiang Yan, Bo Wu, Tim Li, Matthew Collins, Tianjun Zhou, Wen Zhou

{"title":"Increased longitudinal separation of equatorial rainfall responses to Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific El Niño under global warming","authors":"Zixiang Yan, Bo Wu, Tim Li, Matthew Collins, Tianjun Zhou, Wen Zhou","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00933-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00933-0","url":null,"abstract":"El Niño induced equatorial precipitation centers shift to different longitudinal positions during Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, resulting in distinct global climate responses. However, it remains unexplored how EP and CP El Niño forced precipitation changes may differ under global warming. Here, we find that the longitudinal separation of precipitation centers in EP and CP El Niño events is projected to increase under global warming. Specifically, the precipitation anomalies during EP El Niño events will shift further eastward, while those during CP El Niño will intensify in their original positions. This change is attributed to the amplified equatorial thermocline feedback as the mean thermocline shoals. A more meridionally confined El Niño structure under global warming generates extra boundary layer moisture convergence in situ. This intensifies the precipitation anomalies in CP El Niño but shifts the precipitation center eastward towards the maximum sea surface temperature anomaly center in EP El Niño. The projected increased longitudinal separation of precipitation centers suggests that the differences in global climate impacts between EP and CP El Niño events will intensify under global warming.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143477456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A zonal asymmetry in boreal winter surface temperature trend and its recent reversal over the Northern Hemisphere continents

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00963-8

Ye-Jun Jun, Seok-Woo Son

引用次数: 0

Health impact assessment on life expectancy gains ascribed to particulate matter reduction

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00953-w

Xiao Lin, Richard T. Burnett, Junyan Xi, Jianjun Bai, Yining Xiang, Tian Tian, Zhiqiang Li, Shimin Chen, Jie Jiang, Weihua Hu, Xiaowen Wang, Ying Wang, Zhicheng Du, Wangjian Zhang, Yuantao Hao

{"title":"Health impact assessment on life expectancy gains ascribed to particulate matter reduction","authors":"Xiao Lin, Richard T. Burnett, Junyan Xi, Jianjun Bai, Yining Xiang, Tian Tian, Zhiqiang Li, Shimin Chen, Jie Jiang, Weihua Hu, Xiaowen Wang, Ying Wang, Zhicheng Du, Wangjian Zhang, Yuantao Hao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00953-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00953-w","url":null,"abstract":"How the shape characterization of the concentration-response relationships between particulate matter (PM) and all-cause mortality influences life expectancy (LE) gains remains unclear. Based on the Pearl River Cohort, the 2021 World Health Organization air quality guidelines, and an integrated comparative risk assessment framework, we identified sigmodal relationships between PM2.5, all-cause mortality, and LE reduction. A 10-unit increase in PM2.5 was associated with an excess mortality risk of 31.2% (95% uncertainty interval: 27.6–35.0%). Reducing PM2.5 to the guideline threshold of 5 μg/m3 could prevent 0.193 (0.175–0.212) million deaths, contributing to a 4.07–year (3.60–4.52) average LE gain. In contrast, PM2.5 reductions by 5.6% and 10% resulted in smaller LE gains of 0.33 (0.28–0.38) and 0.58 (0.49–0.67) years, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for the nonlinear relationship in air pollution control and provide essential incentives for tailoring sustainable plans to enhance population longevity.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143473457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of solar elevation angle on the net radiative effect of tropical cyclone clouds

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00964-7

Liang Hu, Dae-Hui Kim, J. Scott Tyo, Elizabeth A. Ritchie

引用次数: 0

Typhoon induced mesoscale cyclonic eddy a long neglected linkage between atmosphere ocean and climate

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00946-9

Jia-Yi Lin, Hua Ho, Ganesh Gopalakrishnan, Zhe-Wen Zheng, Ruo-Shan Tseng, Jiayi Pan, Chung-Ru Ho, Quanan Zheng

{"title":"Typhoon induced mesoscale cyclonic eddy a long neglected linkage between atmosphere ocean and climate","authors":"Jia-Yi Lin, Hua Ho, Ganesh Gopalakrishnan, Zhe-Wen Zheng, Ruo-Shan Tseng, Jiayi Pan, Chung-Ru Ho, Quanan Zheng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00946-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00946-9","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates typhoon-induced mesoscale cyclonic eddies (TIME) in the western North Pacific. A total of 69 potential TIME candidates (1995–2018) were identified using global mesoscale eddy trajectory atlas and JTWC typhoon data. Subsequently, systematic analysis procedures were applied to those candidates. Analysis revealed that three cyclonic ocean eddies (COEs) were likely triggered by typhoons Rosie (1997), Nida (2009), and Ma-on (2011). Numerical modeling with a regional ocean modeling system (ROMS) reconstructed the ocean environment during these events. Semi-idealized experiments confirmed that typical TIME events arise from the energy transfer between kinetic and potential energy, with vertical diffusion and horizontal advection contributing significantly to COE spin-up. Divergence and vertical advection terms suppress excessive COE growth. Given the increasing intensity and slower movement of typhoons due to global warming, more TIMEs are expected in the future. Stronger, longer-lasting TIMEs may have significant climate impacts and should be a focus of future research.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"82 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143470610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of the centennial changes in ENSO on the rise of the Chinese Qing empire

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00950-z

Weiyi Sun, Bin Wang, Jian Liu, David A. Bello, Ulf Büntgen, Elena Xoplaki, Deliang Chen, Hui Shi, Nicola Di Cosmo

{"title":"Impact of the centennial changes in ENSO on the rise of the Chinese Qing empire","authors":"Weiyi Sun, Bin Wang, Jian Liu, David A. Bello, Ulf Büntgen, Elena Xoplaki, Deliang Chen, Hui Shi, Nicola Di Cosmo","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00950-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00950-z","url":null,"abstract":"The demise of the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) and the rise of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) marked an epochal moment in Chinese and world history. Attention has been given to the North China droughts during 1627–1643 that destabilized the Ming Dynasty. However, there is little attention paid to how climate influenced the rise of a minority Manchu state in Northeast China and its conquest of the Ming. Here, we find that contrasting climate conditions between North and Northeast China persisted over a six-decade period (1581–1644), which diversely affected economic, societal, and political changes at the regional level. Five successive megadroughts ravaged North China, while relatively wet and mild climate conditions prevailed in the Manchu homeland of Northeast China. Furthermore, in the early decades of Manchu rule in North China (1645–1680), increased precipitation facilitated the Qing Dynasty’s consolidation. Reconstructions and climate model simulations revealed that these unusual climatic patterns were influenced by the centennial variation of clustering El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and were amplified by the Little Ice Age cooling. These findings shed light on how long-term contrasting future climate changes could lead to divergent socioeconomic responses, potentially increasing the risk of conflict between neighboring states.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143462913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A new last two millennium reanalysis based on hybrid gain analog offline EnKF and an expanded proxy database

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00961-w

Fen Wu, Liang Ning, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Wenqing Hu, Mi Yan, Fangmiao Xing, Lili Lei, Haohao Sun, Kefan Chen, Yanmin Qin, Benyue Li, Chuanxi Xu

{"title":"A new last two millennium reanalysis based on hybrid gain analog offline EnKF and an expanded proxy database","authors":"Fen Wu, Liang Ning, Zhengyu Liu, Jian Liu, Wenqing Hu, Mi Yan, Fangmiao Xing, Lili Lei, Haohao Sun, Kefan Chen, Yanmin Qin, Benyue Li, Chuanxi Xu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00961-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00961-w","url":null,"abstract":"This paper systemically assesses the performances of two assimilation methods, i.e., the Offline Ensemble Kalman Filter (OEnKF) and the Hybrid Gain Analog Offline EnKF (HGAOEnKF) with three proxy databases, on reconstructing the temperature and precipitation during the last two millennia. The results show that, among three databases, increasing the number of proxy records significantly improves the reconstruction skill for both assimilation methods, with a larger improvement in HGAOEnKF. In the instrumental era, six reconstructions have comparable skill (similar correlation coefficients, CEs, and RMSEs) when validated against out-of-sample proxy records and instrumental reanalyses. During the pre-industrial era, HGAOEnKF shows better assimilation performance by improving the background field of assimilation when the number of proxy records is limited. Compared with the temperature reconstruction, the skill of precipitation reconstruction is relatively lower. The proxy records from the ocean contribute more to the temperature reconstruction skill with both assimilation methods. Finally, a new reanalysis product (NNU-2ka Reanalysis) is generated through the HGAOEnKF with the expanded proxy database.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143462910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Anomalous temperature in North Tropical Atlantic linked to Brazilian Cerrado fires

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00945-w

Hyo-Jeong Kim, Jin-Soo Kim, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jae-Heung Park, David Milodowski, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Mathew Williams

{"title":"Anomalous temperature in North Tropical Atlantic linked to Brazilian Cerrado fires","authors":"Hyo-Jeong Kim, Jin-Soo Kim, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jae-Heung Park, David Milodowski, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Mathew Williams","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00945-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00945-w","url":null,"abstract":"Brazilian Cerrado has the largest annual burned area (BA) in South America, with strong interannual variability. However, there is limited understanding of which climatic drivers lead to the interannual variability of Cerrado fires. This study found sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) are positively correlated with the Cerrado BA. Positive SSTAs over the NTA modulate the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) position, which suppresses atmospheric convection over the Cerrado region. While NTA SSTA peaks March, the precipitation reduction in Cerrado is pronounced during June–August, since the ITCZ shifts northward and the local monsoon weakens. This leads to moisture deficits for the following months, significantly enhancing fire activity in August–October. This result implies NTA can exert an independent influence on Cerrado in addition to the traditionally considered factor, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This improves the predictability of fire activity because NTA precedes the fire season by 7 months.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143470611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Beaufort sea ice loss contributes to enhanced health exposure to fire weather over Southeast Asia

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00954-9

Guanyu Liu, Jing Li, Tong Ying, Yueming Dong, Zhenyu Zhang, Chongzhao Zhang, Qiurui Li

{"title":"Beaufort sea ice loss contributes to enhanced health exposure to fire weather over Southeast Asia","authors":"Guanyu Liu, Jing Li, Tong Ying, Yueming Dong, Zhenyu Zhang, Chongzhao Zhang, Qiurui Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00954-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00954-9","url":null,"abstract":"Fires are a major source of air pollutants in Southeast Asia. Over the past few decades, there has been an increase in fire activities in this region, and the causes are not entirely clear. By analyzing multiple observational and reanalysis datasets, as well as conducting climate model simulations, we uncover a distinct positive impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Southeast Asian fire weather. There is a possibility that the fall in the autumn Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) over the Beaufort Sea the year prior contributes to the increase in boreal spring fire activity in Southeast Asia. This sea ice reduction generates a local low warm anomaly, triggering an upper atmosphere Rossby wave train that propagates from the tropical Pacific to Southeast Asia and arrives in Southeast Asia as a high-pressure anomaly with descending air. Moreover, two meridional cells originating from equatorial and polar regions intensify the sinking airflow. This Arctic-driven teleconnection causes high pressure with warmer and dryer surfaces in Southeast Asia, creating favorable conditions for fire ignition and expansion. Based on the fire weather classification criteria, a negative change in SIC of one standard deviation below the climatological mean will expose over 500 million people to very high levels of fire pollution across Southeast Asia, and the number of people exposed to extreme fires will be 1000 times greater than in the present scenario. The above-mentioned mechanism has great implications for projecting decadal air quality and developing relevant health policies to cope with climate change in Southeast Asia.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"146 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143462912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0