npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

{"title":"Inconsistent influence of temperature, precipitation, and CO2 variations on the plateau alpine vegetation carbon flux","authors":"Lixin Dong, Xufeng Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00975-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00975-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The superimposed fluctuations of temperature, precipitation, and CO₂ concentration are crucial for the Alpine Vegetation Carbon Flux on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This study updates the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Model (LPJ) with plant functional types native to alpine regions and assimilates the daily LAI remote sensing datasets. And, the influence of climate factors and CO₂ concentration on Alpine Vegetation carbon fluxes was simulated. Validation against field data shows the model accurately simulates daily GPP with <i>R</i>² of 0.8332 and 0.8608, RMSE of 1.96 and 1.485 for 2013–2014, respectively. For NEP, the RMSE are 1.15 and 1.19 for the same years. The research reveals the pronounced spatiotemporal variations of carbon fluxes were highly responsive to temperature changes. Precipitation shows a more consistent interannual variation relationship with carbon fluxes than temperature does. Notably, NPP/GPP increase only with concurrent rises in CO₂ and precipitation, highlighting the superimposed implications of climate-induced carbon flux changes in Alpine vegetation.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143570490","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon uptake of an urban green space inferred from carbonyl sulfide fluxes","authors":"Jesse Soininen, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Pekka Rantala, Liisa Kulmala, Hermanni Aaltonen, Leena Järvi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00958-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00958-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With several cities worldwide pursuing carbon neutrality in the upcoming decades, there is an increasing interest in quantifying cities’ anthropogenic carbon emissions using atmospheric observations. The challenge with both in-situ and remote sensing methods is, however, that the observations include both anthropogenic and biogenic signals. To reduce uncertainties in anthropogenic emission estimations, it is critical to partition biogenic fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the observed data. In this study, we, for the first time, examine the suitability of carbonyl sulfide (COS), a proxy for photosynthesis, on partitioning biogenic CO₂ uptake from the ecosystem exchange measured with the eddy covariance (EC) technique over an urban area in Helsinki, Finland. The urban vegetation acts as a clear sink for COS whereas anthropogenic processes show minimal COS emissions within the source area of the measured net carbon flux. We show that two different COS flux-based methods are able to produce the dynamics of photosynthesis by an independent light-response curve-based estimation. Together with commonly used soil and vegetation respiration proxy, we removed biogenic signals from the urban net CO₂ exchange and demonstrated that together with CO₂ fluxes, COS flux can successfully be used to get realistic estimations of anthropogenic carbon emissions using the EC method.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Association of fine particulate matter constituents with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the effect modification of genetic susceptibility","authors":"Meiqi Xing, Feipeng Cui, Lei Zheng, Yudiyang Ma, Jianing Wang, Linxi Tang, Ning Chen, Xinru Zhao, Yaohua Tian, Binbin Su","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00967-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00967-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigated the link between long-term exposure to PM_2.5 components and the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using UK Biobank data. The exposure dataset, derived from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) model, included elemental carbon (EC), organic matter (OM), ammonium (NH₄⁺), nitrate (NO₃⁻), and sulfate (SO₄²⁻). The risk of COPD was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model, and the contribution of each component was evaluated with quantile g-computation. A polygenic risk score for COPD was used to explore genetic interactions with PM_2.5 constituents. Adjusted hazard ratios showed an increased risk for each component and the mixed exposure, with SO₄²⁻ (40.8%) contributing the most. We observed synergistic effects between genetic risk and exposure to PM_2.5, EC, NH₄⁺, and SO₄²⁻, accounting for 10–18% of total COPD risk. Prolonged exposure to PM_2.5, especially SO₄²⁻, increased the risk of COPD, with genetic factors modifying the effect.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143561289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergent response of aridity index to historical land use and land cover change","authors":"Tao Tang, Jun Ge, Haiyun Shi, Junji Cao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00978-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00978-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>By using model simulations, we show that historical land use and land cover change since 1850 has impacted aridity index (AI) worldwide, causing divergent responses in different regions. Locally, AI tends to increase (getting humid) in reforestation regions and most humid regions. Owing to these changes, the area of the humid zone expanded insignificantly by 0.22% of the global land area at the expense of drylands.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143546828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Moderate climate sensitivity due to opposing mixed-phase cloud feedbacks","authors":"Ivy Tan, Chen Zhou, Aubert Lamy, Catherine L. Stauffer","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00948-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00948-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Earth’s climate sensitivity quantifies the ultimate change in global mean surface air temperature in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Recent assessments estimate that Earth’s climate sensitivity <i>very likely</i> lies between 2.3 °C and 4.7 °C, with the representation of clouds in climate models accounting for a large portion of its uncertainty. Here, we adjust the climate sensitivity of individual contemporary climate models after using satellite observations to alleviate biases in their representation of mixed-phase clouds. A resulting moderate average climate sensitivity of 3.63 ± 0.98(1<i>σ</i>) °C arises due to opposing responses of clouds. While increasing the proportion of liquid within cold clouds prior to CO₂ doubling increases climate sensitivity via transitions from solid to liquid hydrometeors, a strongly opposing increase in reflective cloud cover decreases climate sensitivity. This emphasizes the need to reconsider the role of mixed-phase cloud cover changes in climate sensitivity assessments.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143538980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observationally constrained global NOx and CO emissions variability reveals sources which contribute significantly to CO2 emissions","authors":"Shuo Wang, Jason Blake Cohen, Luoyao Guan, Lingxiao Lu, Pravash Tiwari, Kai Qin","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00977-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00977-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global high-resolution emission inventories of trace gases require refinement to align with ground-based observations, especially for extreme events and changing sources. This study utilizes two satellites to globally quantify NO₂ and CO concentrations on daily to weekly scales and estimate emissions with uncertainty bounds, grid-by-grid, for regions with significant variability in 2010. These emissions demonstrate overall increased emissions and identify missing sources compared with various inventories. The NO_x and CO emissions are 5.76 × 10⁵–6.25 × 10⁶ Mt/yr and 1.06 × 10⁷–2.78 × 10⁷ Mt/yr, representing a mean 200% and 130% increase. Significant emissions originate from typical and atypical sources, exhibiting short-to-medium-term variability, primarily driven by biomass burning and anthropogenic activities, with substantial redistribution and compression due to long-range transport. The extra CO emissions chemically decay into CO₂, resulting in an increase in CO₂ mass equivalent to 3.5% of CO₂ emissions from Central Africa and 6.1% from Amazon, reflecting the importance of addressing CO from biomass burning.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143546826","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Eurasian ice sheet formation promoted by weak AMOC following MIS 3","authors":"Lu Niu, Gregor Knorr, Lars Ackermann, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Gerrit Lohmann","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00982-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00982-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Eurasian ice sheet complex (EIS) was the third largest ice sheet complex at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Although temporal and spatial evolution of the EIS during the last glacial cycle has not been well-established, strong evidence indicates the existence of nearly ice-free conditions during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). Between MIS 3 and the LGM, the EIS likely experienced substantial expansions. These expansions were accompanied by decreasing boreal summer insolation, a slight reduction in greenhouse gases, and millennial-scale abrupt shifts between stadial and interstadial conditions. Using the state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM with asynchronously coupled dynamic ice sheets, we performed transient simulations focusing on this period. Our study shows that the formation of the EIS resembles a bifurcation transition. Only in case of a relatively weak background Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a sufficiently large thin ice/snow cover develops to accommodate a subsequent ice volume growth as Northern Hemisphere summer insolation further decreases. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments show a large non-linearity in surface mass balance changes in response to varying temperature and precipitation, indicating a high sensitivity of the EIS buildup. Our study highlights the large complexity and strong non-linearity of the Earth system induced by internal climate feedbacks, particularly the interactions between ice sheets and other climate components.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Projected increase in ENSO-induced US winter extreme hydroclimate events in SPEAR large ensemble simulation","authors":"Jin-Sil Hong, Dongmin Kim, Hosmay Lopez, Sang-Ki Lee, Andrew Mercer, Nathaniel C. Johnson","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00972-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00972-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observational records during the past several decades show a marked increase in boreal winter extreme US hydroclimate events, with extreme floods and droughts becoming more common. Coincidentally, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a key driver of US precipitation and associated extreme hydroclimate on interannual time scales, has also increased in amplitude and is projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century. This study examines future changes in ENSO and its impacts on the US winter extreme hydroclimate events (e.g., drought and flood) by using a large ensemble simulation. Results in this study show that both the amplitude of ENSO and ENSO-induced atmospheric teleconnections are projected to strengthen, leading to a significant increase in US precipitation variability and extreme hydroclimate events, albeit with notable regional differences. Signal-to-noise ratio analysis shows that the ENSO signal explains a significantly increased fraction of the total variance in US winter precipitation compared to non-ENSO factors (i.e., noise), suggesting a growing role of ENSO in future US extreme hydroclimate events. Further analysis shows that while both the increase in ENSO amplitude and the atmospheric response to ENSO have a similar impact on the hydroclimate over the Southeast and Southwest US, the amplification of the atmospheric response to ENSO plays a more dominant role in the Northeast US.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Thresholds in East Asian marginal seas circulation due to deglacial sea level rise","authors":"Xun Gong, Yang Yu, Xuefa Shi, Xiaopei Lin, Guangliang Liu, Zhi Dong, Xuesong Wang, Jiong Zheng, Lester Lembke-Jene, Gerrit Lohmann","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00927-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00927-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>East Asian marginal seas (EAMS) circulation is closely configurated by sea level rise during the last deglaciation. Here, we perform simulations to reconstruct the EAMS circulation on the basis of sea levels from −90 to 0 m of the present, using a high-resolution regional ocean circulation model under present-day fixed surface and lateral boundary conditions. Our results show that the EAMS circulation underwent twice abrupt changes: a rapid initiation of its modern structure when sea level rise exceeded −40 m, followed by a temporary overshoot of the Japan-Sea throughflows at −5 m. These nonlinear processes are caused by the opening of the Soya Strait and thus formation of the modern EAMS-circulation structure, and a transient absence of the circulation resembling a Kuroshio Large Meander following around-island integral constraint, respectively. Conceptually, our findings introduce the around-island integral constraint on abrupt shift in the global marginal-sea circulation during the last deglaciation.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143526204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Equatorial convection controls boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the present and future climates","authors":"Aditya Kottapalli, P. N. Vinayachandran","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00959-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00959-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is the major mode of tropical intraseasonal variability during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), it partly controls the dry and wet spells of the ISM and thus is crucial for agricultural yield in the country. Understanding the future of BSISO is essential as it has been established recently that the large-scale BSISO environment enhances the probability of extreme rainfall events enormously. In this study, the ability of Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to capture the northward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is examined using a counting algorithm. A composite moisture budget reveals the difference in moisture dynamics between the above-average-performing (AAPM) and below-average-performing (BAPM) models. The AAPM composite has a stronger horizontal moisture advection ahead of the convection centre than the BAPM composite. The weaker wind and moisture perturbations in the BAPM mainly cause this difference in the horizontal moisture advection between AAPM and BAPM. The BAPM composite shows a weaker equatorial convection signal compared to the AAPM composite, resulting in weaker wind and moisture perturbations and a lesser number of northward propagations. Finally, we understand the future of BSISO by examining the projections of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 370 (SSP370) from the available AAPMs. The background moisture will be enhanced uniformly in the future, leading to no substantial change in gradients. The equatorial convection amplifies and broadens in the future projections, leading to very little change in the wind perturbations. This results in the enhancement of BSISO rainfall by 63% in the Bay of Bengal and 42% in the Arabian Sea. However, the proportion of northward propagations remains the same as moisture advection remains the same. The study implies that with a correct representation of BSISO’s equatorial convection, the prediction of BSISO and extreme rainfall associated with BSISOs becomes more reliable.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"431 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143518746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}