npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第9页

An intrinsic low-frequency atmospheric mode of the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon 印度尼西亚-澳大利亚夏季季风的内在低频大气模式

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00792-1

Yu Liang, Shang-Ping Xie, Honghai Zhang

引用次数: 0

CMIP6 models project a shrinking precipitation area CMIP6 模型预测降水区域将缩小

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00794-z

Andreas Dobler, Rasmus E. Benestad, Cristian Lussana, Oskar Landgren

引用次数: 0

Spatially compounding flood-nocturnal heat events over adjacent regions in the Northern Hemisphere 北半球相邻地区洪水-夜间高温事件的空间复合效应

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00795-y

Ruidan Chen, Jianbin Liu, Siao Tang, Xiaoqi Li

{"title":"Spatially compounding flood-nocturnal heat events over adjacent regions in the Northern Hemisphere","authors":"Ruidan Chen, Jianbin Liu, Siao Tang, Xiaoqi Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00795-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00795-y","url":null,"abstract":"Compound events have become more frequent and diverse under global warming. This study specifically focuses on a type of compound events termed spatially compounding flood-nocturnal heat events over adjacent regions. Five flood hotspots are identified to compound with adjacent nocturnal heat. The flood and nocturnal heat are linked via a water vapor transport belt, with flood over the region of prominent water vapor convergence and ascending anomalies and nocturnal heat over the extension region with moderately increased humidity and weak vertical motion anomaly. The compound events for all the hotspots occur more frequently recently, with commonly positive contribution from the increasing trends of nocturnal temperature (TN) but various contribution from the trends of precipitation (Pr) and Pr-TN correlation. The positive contribution of enhanced Pr-TN correlation results from the enhanced variability of the circulation accompanied with water vapor transport. This study highlights the influence of atmospheric circulation variability on compound events.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00795-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Significant winter Atlantic Niño effect on ENSO and its future projection 冬季大西洋厄尔尼诺现象对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的显著影响及其未来预测

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00790-3

Jae-Heung Park, Young-Min Yang, Yoo-Geun Ham, Hyun-Su Jo, Hyo-Jin Park, So-Eun Park, Chao Liu, Gagan Mandal, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug

{"title":"Significant winter Atlantic Niño effect on ENSO and its future projection","authors":"Jae-Heung Park, Young-Min Yang, Yoo-Geun Ham, Hyun-Su Jo, Hyo-Jin Park, So-Eun Park, Chao Liu, Gagan Mandal, Soon-Il An, Jong-Seong Kug","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00790-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00790-3","url":null,"abstract":"The Atlantic Niño, a primary climatic variability mode in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, exhibits pronounced variability not only in boreal summer but also in winter. However, the role of the winter Atlantic Niño in trans-basin interactions remains underexplored compared to its summer counterpart. Through analysis of observational reanalysis data since the mid-twentieth century, here we found that the winter Atlantic Niño significantly influences the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), surpassing the impact of summer Atlantic Niño, with a longer lead time. This effect is reasonably captured in the CMIP6 Historical simulations from a multi-model ensemble perspective. Further analysis of the global warming scenario projects that the influence of winter Atlantic Niño on ENSO will persist into the future, in contrast to the reduced impact of summer Atlantic Niño. Therefore, these findings underscore the importance of further investigating the winter Atlantic Niño to gain a comprehensive understanding of trans-basin interactions and their future changes.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00790-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of the QBO vertical structure on June extreme high temperatures in South Asia QBO 垂直结构对南亚 6 月极端高温的影响

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00791-2

Jiali Luo, Fuhai Luo, Fei Xie, Xiao Chen, Zhenhua Wang, Wenshou Tian, Fangrui Zhu, Mingzhen Gu

{"title":"The impact of the QBO vertical structure on June extreme high temperatures in South Asia","authors":"Jiali Luo, Fuhai Luo, Fei Xie, Xiao Chen, Zhenhua Wang, Wenshou Tian, Fangrui Zhu, Mingzhen Gu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00791-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00791-2","url":null,"abstract":"Using observation data and numerical simulations, we have demonstrated that the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) can predict extreme high temperatures (EHTs) in South Asia in June. The vertical structure of the QBO plays a crucial role in this prediction. When the QBO in June shows easterlies (westerlies) at 50 hPa and westerlies (easterlies) at 70 hPa, more (fewer) EHT events occur. This likely results from the QBO’s vertical structure causing positive (negative) temperature anomalies in the lower stratosphere and negative (positive) static stability anomalies near the tropical tropopause. These anomalies enhance (weaken) convective activity over the equatorial Indian Ocean, leading to anomalous circulation with ascending (descending) air over the equatorial Indian Ocean and descending (ascending) air over northern and central South Asia. This suppresses (promotes) convection over northern and central South Asia, affecting cloud formation and precipitation. Consequently, more (less) solar radiation reaches the region, along with weaker (stronger) evaporative cooling effects, warming (cooling) the surface and creating a background state conducive to (against) EHT events. Additionally, the opposite zonal winds at 30 hPa and 50 hPa in April may serve as a reference factor for predicting the probability of EHT events in northern and central South Asia. This study provides a potential approach for forecasting tropospheric extreme weather events based on stratospheric signals.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00791-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Faster dieback of rainforests altering tropical carbon sinks under climate change 雨林枯死速度加快改变气候变化下的热带碳汇

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00793-0

Debashis Nath, Reshmita Nath, Wen Chen

引用次数: 0

Intraseasonal shift in the wintertime North Atlantic jet structure projected by CMIP6 models CMIP6 模式预测的冬季北大西洋喷流结构的季节内变化

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00775-2

Marina García-Burgos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Tim Woollings, Ricardo García-Herrera

{"title":"Intraseasonal shift in the wintertime North Atlantic jet structure projected by CMIP6 models","authors":"Marina García-Burgos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Tim Woollings, Ricardo García-Herrera","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00775-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00775-2","url":null,"abstract":"The projected winter changes of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (EDJ) under climate change conditions have been extensively analysed. Previous studies have reported a squeezed and elongated EDJ. However, other changes present large uncertainties, specifically those related to the intensity and latitude. Here, the projections of the EDJ in a multimodel ensemble of CMIP6 are scrutinised by using a multiparametric description of the EDJ. The multimodel mean projects non-stationary responses of the EDJ latitude through the winter, characterised by a poleward shift in early winter and equator migration in late winter. These intraseasonal shifts (rather than a genuine narrowing) explain the previously established squeezing of the EDJ and are linked to the future changes in different drivers: the 200 hPa meridional temperature gradient and Atlantic warming hole in early winter, and the stratospheric vortex in late winter. Model biases also influence EDJ projections, contributing to the poleward shift in early winter.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00775-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142377228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation 北方夏季季内振荡引起的西北太平洋极端高温和野火风险增加

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00766-3

Sandro W. Lubis, Ziming Chen, Jian Lu, Samson Hagos, Chuan-Chieh Chang, L. Ruby Leung

{"title":"Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation","authors":"Sandro W. Lubis, Ziming Chen, Jian Lu, Samson Hagos, Chuan-Chieh Chang, L. Ruby Leung","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00766-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00766-3","url":null,"abstract":"The occurrence of extreme hot and dry summer conditions in the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) has been known to be influenced by climate modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other variations in tropospheric circulation such as stationary waves and blocking. However, the extent to which the subseasonal remote tropical driver influences summer heat extremes and fire weather conditions across the PNW remains elusive. Our investigation reveals that the occurrence of heat extremes and associated fire-conducive weather conditions in the PNW is significantly heightened during the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) phases 6-7, by ~50–120% relative to the seasonal probability. The promotion of these heat extremes is primarily attributed to the enhanced diabatic heating over the tropical central-to-eastern North Pacific, which generates a wave train traveling downstream toward North America, resulting in a prominent high-pressure system over the PNW. The ridge, subsequently, promotes surface warming over the region primarily through increased surface radiative heating and enhanced adiabatic warming. The results suggest a potential pathway to improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions of heatwaves and wildfire risks in the PNW by improving the representation of BSISO heating over the tropical-to-eastern North Pacific.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00766-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Projected Antarctic sea ice change contributes to increased occurrence of strong El Niño 预计南极海冰变化导致强厄尔尼诺现象增多

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00789-w

Jiping Liu, Zhu Zhu

{"title":"Projected Antarctic sea ice change contributes to increased occurrence of strong El Niño","authors":"Jiping Liu, Zhu Zhu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00789-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00789-w","url":null,"abstract":"Current climate models suggested that Antarctic sea ice cover would decrease substantially under cumulative CO2 emission, but little is known whether large decrease in Antarctic sea ice can influence the occurrence of strong El Niño. Using time slice coupled and uncoupled model experiments, we show that in response to half reduction of Antarctic sea ice projected near the end of the 21st century, the frequency of strong El Niño would be increased by ~40%. It is contributed by enhanced thermocline, Ekman, and zonal advective positive feedbacks that are partly offset by enhanced thermodynamic damping. The strong warming and weakened westerly winds in the southeastern Pacific generate an anomalous Rossby wave propagating into the eastern subtropical and tropical Pacific, favoring stronger El Nino, and air-sea coupling and ocean feedbacks play a critical role in the teleconnection. Unexpectedly, compare to halved Antarctic sea ice, the ice-free Antarctic leads to a decrease in the frequency of strong El Niño, which is largely due to a substantial increase in thermodynamic damping. We also show that a large portion of the increase of strong El Niño events under greenhouse warming might be connected with Antarctic sea-ice loss, though increased greenhouse gas plays an important role.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00789-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142374094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluation of atmospheric moisture transport to the Tibetan Plateau from 33 CMIP6 models 从 33 个 CMIP6 模型评估青藏高原的大气水汽输送情况

IF 8.5 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00785-0

Yigang Liu, Jing Gao, Yilong Wang

{"title":"Evaluation of atmospheric moisture transport to the Tibetan Plateau from 33 CMIP6 models","authors":"Yigang Liu, Jing Gao, Yilong Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00785-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41612-024-00785-0","url":null,"abstract":"Atmospheric moisture transport is pivotal in regulating water resources over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). With the growing concerns about climate change, understanding the evolution of atmospheric moisture transport over the TP has become increasingly critical. however, the spatiotemporal distinctions of this transport remain poorly understood in the CMIP6 models. Here, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of simulated historical atmospheric moisture transport from 33 CMIP6 models, utilizing a novel methodology that assesses the accuracy of model simulations in replicating regional atmospheric moisture transport over the TP. Our results indicate that the CMIP6 models generally succeed in reproducing the broad spatial patterns of atmospheric moisture transport. Nonetheless, substantial errors occur during the monsoon period, primarily attributable to inaccuracies in the location, movement, and intensity of the simulated Indian summer monsoon. The coarser resolution and poor representation of physical processes are potential reasons for errors in atmospheric moisture transport simulation over the TP. The Failure to simulate the terrain blocking on atmospheric moisture transport exacerbates these deficiencies, leading to significant discrepancies. Of the 33 CMIP6 models we investigated, over one-third displayed serious deficiencies in this regard. While coarser resolution and orographic gravity waves are plausible factors, they do not fully account for all the results obtained in this study. Insufficiently detailed or inaccurate topographic data used in the models may also contribute to this deficiency. This study highlights the necessity of using rigorously evaluated models to develop effective regional adaptation strategies over the Tibetan Plateau.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00785-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142362912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0