Lixia Pan, Jiepeng Chen, Xin Wang, Haigang Zhan, Wen Zhou, Johnny C. L. Chan
{"title":"More autumn tropical cyclone genesis in the South China Sea during El Niño to La Niña transition","authors":"Lixia Pan, Jiepeng Chen, Xin Wang, Haigang Zhan, Wen Zhou, Johnny C. L. Chan","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00947-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00947-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Previous studies focused on the spatial diversity of ENSO’s influence on tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP), with less emphasis on temporal evolution. This study examines the variability of TC genesis in the WNP during boreal autumn (September-November) across three types of La Niña transitions: cyclic, multi-year, and episodic. The findings highlight significant differences, particularly in the South China Sea’s (SCS) role within the WNP region. During a cyclic La Niña, the SCS TC frequency is approximately 2.6 times greater than those of the other two types due to higher local humidity from increased water vapor transport from the Indian Ocean and convergence in the SCS, driven by an anomalous cyclone in the SCS and Maritime Continent. Observations and model simulations revealed that a warmer sea surface temperature in the Philippine Sea, a delayed effect of the preceding El Niño, triggered this cyclonic circulation and moisture influx.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143435329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gang Xue, Yanhong Zheng, Shouyi Huang, Guangming Meng, Mei He, Yajie Wei, Ruoxin Li, Youfeng Ning, John Dodson, Hai Cheng, Yanjun Cai
{"title":"Dipolar hydroclimate pattern changes in southwest China during the last deglaciation","authors":"Gang Xue, Yanhong Zheng, Shouyi Huang, Guangming Meng, Mei He, Yajie Wei, Ruoxin Li, Youfeng Ning, John Dodson, Hai Cheng, Yanjun Cai","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00940-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00940-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Deciphering the driving forces behind spatial heterogeneity of regional hydroclimate changes is significant for developing strategies for water management. This study presents speleothem δ<sup>18</sup>O, δ<sup>13</sup>C and Mg/Ca records spanning the last deglaciation from Yingpan Cave, northeastern Yunnan in southwestern China. Speleothem δ<sup>13</sup>C and Mg/Ca indicate a gradual drying trend in northeastern Yunnan, aligning well with the variations in central China but contrasting with those of central-southern Yunnan. We propose that a decreased zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in tropical Pacific (El Niño-like) shifted the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) southwestward, leading to wetter conditions in northeastern Yunnan. Meanwhile, decreased precipitation in central-southern Yunnan was driven by weakened Indian summer monsoon rainfall associated with El Niño-like conditions, creating a dipolar hydrological pattern in Southwest China. Our results indicate that the spatial heterogeneity of hydroclimate can be modulated by the same triggers but have different processes and mechanisms and hence responses.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143435158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chenyang Xu, Kaiming Xia, Zhehan Huang, John J. Qu, Ashbindu Singh, Ziqian Ye, Qingquan Li, Jizhe Xia
{"title":"Global PM2.5 exposures and inequalities","authors":"Chenyang Xu, Kaiming Xia, Zhehan Huang, John J. Qu, Ashbindu Singh, Ziqian Ye, Qingquan Li, Jizhe Xia","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00941-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00941-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Inequalities in exposure to PM2.5 reflect disproportionate distribution of health risks across populations. This study assesses global PM2.5 exposure inequalities and associated trends since 2000. Results show that 118 countries reduced intra-country inequalities, but global disparities intensified due to widening gaps between developing and developed regions. By identifying pathways and country-specific contributions to global inequalities, we show that environmental policy shifts in major economies can rapidly reshape global inequality patterns.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143435160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"How much do atmospheric depressions and Mongolian cyclones contribute to spring dust activities in East Asia?","authors":"Feifei Mu, Stephanie Fiedler","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00929-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00929-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Severe East Asian dust storms occur in spring due to dust-emitting winds in the Gobi Desert associated with Mongolian cyclones. The present study performs the first quantitative assessment of the contributions of Mongolian cyclones to springtime dust activity in East Asia, based on multiple reanalyses and observational datasets for 2001–2022. Atmospheric depressions dominate dust activities in Northern China, explaining ~90–92% of the total dust emissions in the Gobi Desert and ~88–93% of the dust aerosol optical depth (<i>τ</i>) downwind, depending on the dataset. Mongolian cyclones, defined as long-living and mobile atmospheric depressions, explain almost half (~34–47%) of the Gobi’s total dust emissions and <i>τ</i> downwind, and are the primary driver of high-impact dust storms. The number of Mongolian cyclones, along with the dust activity, has decreased since 2001, with a spatial pattern of the dust emission trend that is consistent with the northward shift of cyclone tracks.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"85 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143418480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yang Du, Hanxiong Che, Zier Bao, Yiliang Liu, Qing Li, Miao Hu, Jiawei Zhou, Shumin Zhang, Xiaojiang Yao, Quan Shi, Chunmao Chen, Yan Han, Lingshuo Meng, Xin Long, Xin Qi, Chen He, Yang Chen
{"title":"Evolution of atmospheric high-molecular-weight Organonitrates (HMW ONs) in urban Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China","authors":"Yang Du, Hanxiong Che, Zier Bao, Yiliang Liu, Qing Li, Miao Hu, Jiawei Zhou, Shumin Zhang, Xiaojiang Yao, Quan Shi, Chunmao Chen, Yan Han, Lingshuo Meng, Xin Long, Xin Qi, Chen He, Yang Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00928-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00928-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometry was used to investigate the characterization of aerosol organonitrates (ONs). ONs featured high-molecular-weight (HMW), high unsaturation, and high functionalization. Under high air pollution events, the number of N<sub>1</sub>O<sub>x</sub> class ONs composed of aliphatic and aromatic compounds increased with high levels of oxidation. In the daytime, highly unsaturated aliphatic-ONs were continuously produced. In the nighttime, the atmospheric oxidation of NO<sub>3</sub> radicals promoted ONs. N<sub>2</sub>O<sub>x</sub> class ONs were mainly comprised of multi-generation oxidated aliphatic compounds with high unsaturation. Most of the N<sub>2</sub>O<sub>x</sub>-ONs were from cooking. Biomass burning also played an indelible role in the formation of ONs. In the daytime, atmospheric photodegradation led to the removal of the HMW ONs, especially aliphatic ONs. During nighttime, the NO<sub>3</sub> oxidation radicals inhibited the generation of ONs, especially anthropogenic ONs. This study improves the understanding of the source, formation, and evolution of HMW ONs under the demand for continuous PM mitigation.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"183 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143418074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Formation mechanisms of the Central and Eastern Atlantic Niño","authors":"Heng Liu, Lei Zhang, Antonietta Capotondi, Xin Wang, Hanjie Fan, Baiyang Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00938-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00938-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Atlantic Niño is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability of the tropical Atlantic, prominently influencing climate conditions over local and remote regions. A recent study has identified two types of Atlantic Niño–central and eastern Atlantic Niño (CAN and EAN), with warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies centered in the central and eastern basins, respectively. Here we investigate their formation mechanisms by performing a mixed layer heat budget analysis and conducting numerical experiments. Results show that the development of both types is contributed by upper-ocean vertical processes caused by westerly wind anomalies. Furthermore, anomalous horizontal advection also plays an important role but is associated with distinct physical processes in the CAN and EAN. The difference is related to the climatological distribution of tropical Atlantic SST, exhibiting two warm centers located in the southwest and northeast tropical basins during boreal spring. Consequently, eastward current anomalies during Atlantic Niño cause warming only in the western-central equatorial Atlantic south of the equator, contributing to the formation of CAN. In contrast, Ekman convergence anomalies cause SST warming in the southwest and northeast equatorial Atlantic during CAN and EAN, respectively, favoring both types. We further analyze initiation mechanisms for the two Atlantic Niño types and find that CAN and EAN are triggered by the subtropical South Atlantic warming and oceanic Kelvin waves, respectively. These results suggest that the two Atlantic Niño types are associated with distinct physical drivers.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143401278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carla M. Roesch, Emilie Fons, Andrew P. Ballinger, Jakob Runge, Gabriele C. Hegerl
{"title":"Decreasing aerosols increase the European summer diurnal temperature range","authors":"Carla M. Roesch, Emilie Fons, Andrew P. Ballinger, Jakob Runge, Gabriele C. Hegerl","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00922-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00922-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The diurnal temperature range (DTR), the difference between daily maximum and minimum temperature, is important for the impact of extreme temperatures, but despite physical links to aerosol forcing previous studies have struggled to attribute observed DTR changes to aerosols. Using causal inference, we can clearly identify aerosols as a driver of European DTR change since 1940. Following a decrease from the 1940s, since the 1980s the European DTR has increased by about 0.5K due to a reduction in European aerosol emissions leading to cooler nights relative to days. Agreement between causal effects estimated from observations with those estimated for two CMIP6 models evaluates the models’ microphysical and radiative parameterizations. From causal effects, we also derive effective radiative forcing estimates of aerosols on surface shortwave during European summer, which amount to [−1.7; −1.5] Wm<sup>−2</sup> in observations and one model, while it is less negative in the other model ([−0.9; −0.8] Wm<sup>−2</sup>).</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143401280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yuanfang Chai, Yao Yue, Louise Slater, Chiyuan Miao
{"title":"Emergent constraints indicate slower increases in future global evapotranspiration","authors":"Yuanfang Chai, Yao Yue, Louise Slater, Chiyuan Miao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00932-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00932-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Projections of global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) are plagued by sizeable uncertainties. Here, we uncover bivariate emergent constraint relationships between projected global ET trends (2015–2100) and historical vapour pressure deficit (VPD) trends (1980–2014) under the low emission scenario of SSP126 when water supply is sufficient, and with historical precipitation trends under the high emission scenarios of SSP370 and SSP585 when water availability is limited, across 28 CMIP6 models. Combining multiple observational datasets into a Hierarchical Emergent Constraint framework, we find the raw CMIP6 models overestimate future annual ET growth rates. The original projections of 0.233 ± 0.107 mm year<sup>−1</sup> (SSP126), 0.360 ± 0.244 mm year−<sup>1</sup> (SSP370) and 0.506 ± 0.365 mm year<sup>−1</sup> (SSP585) are adjusted downwards to 0.193 ± 0.074 mm year<sup>−1</sup>, 0.272 ± 0.184 mm year<sup>−1</sup> and 0.391 ± 0.299 mm year<sup>−1</sup>. The revised projection uncertainties are reduced by 18.1–31.1%. These findings highlight the value of incorporating observational constraints to improve the reliability of ET projections, which are critical for understanding the future global water cycle.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143393094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Carbonate radical ion as a key driver of rapid atmospheric sulfate formation","authors":"Yangyang Liu, Xiao Li, Qiuyue Ge, Xiaozhong Fang, Tao Wang, Wenbo You, Wei Wang, Lifang Xie, Kejian Li, Kedong Gong, Le Yang, Runbo Wang, Jilun Wang, Licheng Wang, Minglu Ma, Tingting Huang, Hongbo Fu, Jianmin Chen, Xinyi Dong, Liwu Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00905-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00905-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Carbonate radical anion (<span>({{rm{CO}}}_{{3}^{.-}})</span>) is generally considered as a marginal intermediate that rarely regulates atmospheric-relevant reactions of significance. Unexpectedly, in this work, employing a suit of the in-field measurements, lab-based validations, improved kinetic numerical calculations, and chemical transport modeling, we demonstrate that <span>({{rm{CO}}}_{{3}^{.-}})</span> gives a significantly overlooked contribution (~54.4%) to overall secondary sulfate formation during dust storm-relevant episodes and ~236.3% increase of SO<sub>2</sub> uptake over mineral dust pathway during haze-relevant periods. GEOS-Chem modeling results further emphasize the important position of this radical ion in dust-driven SO<sub>2</sub> oxidation chemistry. Our finding leaves this active intermediate no longer a marginal oxidant currently prevailing in the framework of the atmospheric science community. More importantly, after considering this rapid dust-driven sulfate formation channel mediated by carbonate radicals during pollution episodes, this study provides a clear indication that high priority should be given to reducing alkaline soil dust emissions to achieve benefits for air quality.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143393092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Renguang Wu, Bin Yu, Hans-F. Graf, Qingyu Cai, Jun Ying, Wanqiu Xing
{"title":"Atlantic multidecadal variability controls Arctic-ENSO connection","authors":"Shangfeng Chen, Wen Chen, Renguang Wu, Bin Yu, Hans-F. Graf, Qingyu Cai, Jun Ying, Wanqiu Xing","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00936-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00936-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The springtime Arctic Oscillation (AO), a dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, influences the subsequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by triggering westerly wind bursts over the equatorial western Pacific. It thereby provides a source of predictability of ENSO. However, the influence of AO on ENSO is not stable in time, the causes of which have not been well addressed. This study shows that the AO-ENSO relationship has exhibited multi-decadal variations that are primarily caused by the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). During the negative AMV phases, the strengthening of the Pacific center of the AO induces stronger atmospheric and sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. Those anomalies generate pronounced westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific via air–sea interaction process, leading to a strengthened impact of the spring AO on ENSO. Observations and North Atlantic Pacemaker experiments confirm the AMV impact on the Pacific center of the AO by changing the strength of the Aleutian Low and the polar vortex. This study highlights the importance of AMV as a key factor controlling the impact of AO on ENSO and tropical climate variability.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143375275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}