npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

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Global atmospheric distribution of microplastics with evidence of low oceanic emissions 微塑料在全球大气中的分布以及海洋排放低的证据
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00914-3
Shanye Yang, Guy Brasseur, Stacy Walters, Pablo Lichtig, Cathy W. Y. Li
{"title":"Global atmospheric distribution of microplastics with evidence of low oceanic emissions","authors":"Shanye Yang, Guy Brasseur, Stacy Walters, Pablo Lichtig, Cathy W. Y. Li","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00914-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00914-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent investigations based on sea–air transfer physical mechanistic studies suggest that the global ocean’s contribution to atmospheric microplastic emissions is significantly lower (four orders of magnitude) than previously estimated. However, no atmospheric models or observations have yet validated this lower emission flux, leaving the analysis without adequate validation and practical significance. Here, we provide quantitative estimates of the global atmospheric microplastic budget based on this reduced oceanic flux. Our model aligns well with observed atmospheric microplastic concentrations and suggests that the ocean functions more as a sink than a source, contributing only ~0.008% of global emissions but accounting for ~15% of total deposition. This challenges the previous view of the ocean as the primary atmospheric microplastic source, urging a reassessment of pollution mitigation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143518747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A source-weighted Benthic minus Planktonic radiocarbon method for estimating pure ocean water age 估算纯海水年龄的源加权底栖生物减去浮游生物放射性碳方法
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00952-x
Jinbo Du, Sifan Gu, Zhengyu Liu, Lingwei Li, Ning Zhao
{"title":"A source-weighted Benthic minus Planktonic radiocarbon method for estimating pure ocean water age","authors":"Jinbo Du, Sifan Gu, Zhengyu Liu, Lingwei Li, Ning Zhao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00952-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00952-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper introduces the Benthic minus-weighted-Planktonic (BwP) age method to estimate the pure water age of the deep ocean. It combines radiocarbon data with water mass composition evolution in an ocean model under realistic surface forcings accounting for multiple water sources, marine reservoir age, and the evolving atmospheric <span>({14atop}C)</span> content. Instead of using local planktonic radiocarbon age, the source water radiocarbon age is derived from global planktonic data weighted by their water mass contributions, with weights simulated by dye tracers. An iterative approach is used to account for the effect of the temporal variation of the atmospheric radiocarbon or the so-called projection age issue. In this ocean model, we demonstrate that our BwP age effectively reproduces the pure water age that results from the interior ocean circulation. Preliminary application to the North Pacific suggests that the pure water age at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is not much older than today.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143518754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
ENSO’s impact on linear and nonlinear predictability of Antarctic sea ice ENSO对南极海冰线性和非线性可预测性的影响
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00962-9
Yunhe Wang, Xiaojun Yuan, Yibin Ren, Xiaofeng Li, Arnold L. Gordon
{"title":"ENSO’s impact on linear and nonlinear predictability of Antarctic sea ice","authors":"Yunhe Wang, Xiaojun Yuan, Yibin Ren, Xiaofeng Li, Arnold L. Gordon","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00962-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00962-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While the influence of ENSO on Antarctic sea ice variability is well-known, its role in sea ice predictability, both linear and nonlinear, remains unexplored. This study utilizes deep learning models to quantify ENSO’s impact on Antarctic sea ice predictability. We find that ENSO events exert cross-timescale influences on sea ice’s subseasonal linear and nonlinear predictability. Within a 3-week lead time, ice persistence is the primary source of predictability. Beyond this period, ENSO becomes a key source of Antarctic sea ice predictability, with El Niño enhancing ice linear predictability more than La Niña. Specifically, El Niño improves ice linear predictability by 25.6%, 19.6%, and 30.4% in the A-B Sea, Ross Sea, and Indian Ocean, respectively, at an 8-week lead time. La Niña mainly enhances ice nonlinear predictability, particularly in the Ross Sea. We demonstrate that ENSO provides additional sources for Antarctic sea ice predictability primarily through generating more extensive ice anomalies. These insights deepen our understanding of sea ice predictability and are crucial for advancing forecasting models.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143507333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intensified exposure to compound extreme heat and ozone pollution in summer across Chinese cities 中国城市夏季极端高温和臭氧复合污染加剧
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00966-5
Jingling Su, Limin Jiao, Gang Xu
{"title":"Intensified exposure to compound extreme heat and ozone pollution in summer across Chinese cities","authors":"Jingling Su, Limin Jiao, Gang Xu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00966-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00966-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change and air pollution are interconnected global crises, with concurrent heatwaves and extreme ozone levels threatening public health. This study investigates urban population exposure to concurrent extreme heat and ozone pollution across Chinese cities from 2003 to 2020, using high-resolution (1 km) daily temperature and ozone data. We quantify annual exposure rates at national and city levels, distinguishing contributions from urban population growth and compound event frequency. Findings show a 67% increase in compound exposure over 18 years, with 38% of cities, particularly in the North China Plain, exhibiting significant upward trends. Population growth mainly drives exposure in southern cities, while rising event frequency has a greater impact in northern regions. Core urban areas have become critical hotspots, with some major cities’ centers contributing over 80% to total exposure in 2020. The results highlight the urgent need for targeted climate adaptation strategies to mitigate health risks in urban environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143507296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic configuration before quasi-biennial oscillation disruptions revealed from the perspective of planetary waves 从行星波的角度揭示准两年振荡中断前的动态结构
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00874-0
Yang He, Xiaoqian Zhu, Zheng Sheng
{"title":"Dynamic configuration before quasi-biennial oscillation disruptions revealed from the perspective of planetary waves","authors":"Yang He, Xiaoqian Zhu, Zheng Sheng","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00874-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00874-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere shows a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which is an important reference for climate prediction and stratosphere-troposphere interaction. However, the periodicity of the QBO was disrupted during the 2015/16 and 2019/20 Northern Hemisphere winters, raising big challenges to its predictability and attracting widespread attention. Previous studies have indicated that planetary wave (PW) activity from mid-latitude in the lower stratosphere is one of the main sources for the reversal of the zonal wind field, our results show that in addition to that, the presence of dissipated eastward-moving waves in the middle stratosphere can be important for the formation of QBO disruptions. The above two wave signs appear successively before the disruption, exert strong negative forcing on the background flow, and together form a dynamic configuration that occurs before the tropical stratospheric circulation anomalies. It may be necessary to take this PW dynamic configuration into account when predicting future QBO disruptions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143507332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Incomplete mass closure in atmospheric nanoparticle growth 大气纳米颗粒生长中的不完全质量闭合
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00893-5
Dominik Stolzenburg, Nina Sarnela, Federico Bianchi, Jing Cai, Runlong Cai, Yafang Cheng, Lubna Dada, Neil M. Donahue, Hinrich Grothe, Sebastian Holm, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Tuukka Petäjä, Juha Sulo, Paul M. Winkler, Chao Yan, Juha Kangasluoma, Markku Kulmala
{"title":"Incomplete mass closure in atmospheric nanoparticle growth","authors":"Dominik Stolzenburg, Nina Sarnela, Federico Bianchi, Jing Cai, Runlong Cai, Yafang Cheng, Lubna Dada, Neil M. Donahue, Hinrich Grothe, Sebastian Holm, Veli-Matti Kerminen, Katrianne Lehtipalo, Tuukka Petäjä, Juha Sulo, Paul M. Winkler, Chao Yan, Juha Kangasluoma, Markku Kulmala","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00893-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00893-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nucleation and subsequent growth of new aerosol particles in the atmosphere is a major source of cloud condensation nuclei and persistent large uncertainty in climate models. Newly formed particles need to grow rapidly to avoid scavenging by pre-existing aerosols and become relevant for the climate and air quality. In the continental atmosphere, condensation of oxygenated organic molecules is often the dominant mechanism for rapid growth. However, the huge variety of different organics present in the continental boundary layer makes it challenging to predict nanoparticle growth rates from gas-phase measurements. Moreover, recent studies have shown that growth rates of nanoparticles derived from particle size distribution measurements show surprisingly little dependency on potentially condensable vapors observed in the gas phase. Here, we show that the observed nanoparticle growth rates in the sub-10 nm size range can be predicted in the boreal forest only for springtime conditions, even with state-of-the-art mass spectrometers and particle sizing instruments. We find that, especially under warmer conditions, observed growth is slower than predicted from gas-phase condensation. We show that only a combination of simple particle-phase reaction schemes, phase separation due to non-ideal solution behavior, or particle-phase diffusion limitations can explain the observed lower growth rates. Our analysis provides first insights as to why atmospheric nanoparticle growth rates above 10 nm h<sup>−1</sup> are rarely observed. Ultimately, a reduction of experimental uncertainties and improved sub-10 nm particle hygroscopicity and chemical composition measurements are needed to further investigate the occurrence of such a growth rate-limiting process.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"185 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143495528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Importance of the vertical mixing process in the development of El Niño Modoki 垂直混合过程在El Niño Modoki发展中的重要性
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00973-6
Tomoki Tozuka
{"title":"Importance of the vertical mixing process in the development of El Niño Modoki","authors":"Tomoki Tozuka","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00973-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00973-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stands out as the most prominent interannual climate mode, profoundly affecting global climate. This phenomenon exhibits remarkable diversity and is commonly classified into two groups based on the location of maximum sea surface temperature anomalies. One of the two flavors with the maximum anomalous warming in the central equatorial Pacific is called El Niño Modoki. It has been suggested that anomalous zonal advection primarily contributes to the development of the positive sea surface temperature anomalies. Using outputs from a realistic ocean model simulation, here I show for the first time that anomalous vertical mixing makes a dominant or comparable contribution to the anomalous zonal advection during the development of El Niño Modoki in four out of six simulated events. The present finding provides a significant advancement in the understanding of El Niño Modoki, potentially contributing to more reliable future projections of ENSO.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143495526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How different is tropical cyclone precipitation over land and ocean? 热带气旋在陆地和海洋上的降水有何不同?
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00970-9
Lihao Chen, Zhanhong Ma, Jianfang Fei
{"title":"How different is tropical cyclone precipitation over land and ocean?","authors":"Lihao Chen, Zhanhong Ma, Jianfang Fei","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00970-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00970-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is a major cause of severe floods and landslides. This study compares the characteristics of TC precipitation over land and ocean in the Northern Hemisphere using satellite data from 2001 – 2020. An analog selection method is used to pair each landfalling TC case with an oceanic case of the same intensity and similar atmospheric environmental conditions. Here we show robust discrepancies in rainfall rate and pattern for TCs over land and ocean. The average rain rates of landfalling TCs are 27.8% lower than those of oceanic TCs. Nonetheless, the rainfall is more intense on the right side of landfalling TCs compared with oceanic TCs. This left-right difference pattern tends to be more pronounced for TCs with faster translation speeds. Numerical simulations indicate that the increased surface friction and moisture convergence are largely responsible for the increased rainfall rate on the right side of landfalling TCs.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143486261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rapid evolution of energetic lightning strokes in Mediterranean winter storms 地中海冬季风暴中高能雷击的快速演变
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00965-6
I. Kolmašová, O. Santolík, A. Kolínská, S. Pédeboy, R. Lán, L. Uhlíř
{"title":"Rapid evolution of energetic lightning strokes in Mediterranean winter storms","authors":"I. Kolmašová, O. Santolík, A. Kolínská, S. Pédeboy, R. Lán, L. Uhlíř","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00965-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00965-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The occurrence of winter lightning concentrates in a few specific regions in the world, including the Mediterranean, where electromagnetic signatures of this interesting dangerous phenomenon have not yet been studied in detail. We investigate the initial stage of energetic negative cloud-to-ground winter lightning flashes in the West Mediterranean region using broadband magnetic field measurements (5 kHz–90 MHz) recorded in winter 2014/2015, which was unusually rich in global lightning activity. We found that the winter pre-stroke processes leading to the high peak current lightning (&lt;−100 kA) lasted on average only 1.7 ms (in one case only 220 µs). Rapid evolution of energetic lightning indicates that leader initiation charge centers can be as low as 500 m above the ground. The measured distribution of pre-stroke pulse amplitudes and interpulse intervals can be used to model the charge structure in the lower thundercloud dipole and to derive the properties of in-cloud lightning channels.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143486262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate warming and influenza dynamics: the modulating effects of seasonal temperature increases on epidemic patterns 气候变暖和流感动态:季节性温度升高对流行病模式的调节作用
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00968-3
Wenxi Ruan, Yinglin Liang, Zhaobin Sun, Xingqin An
{"title":"Climate warming and influenza dynamics: the modulating effects of seasonal temperature increases on epidemic patterns","authors":"Wenxi Ruan, Yinglin Liang, Zhaobin Sun, Xingqin An","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00968-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00968-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The underexplored impact of climate change on influenza outbreak severity and duration hampers our understanding of how climate-driven changes affect transmission dynamics. Our study employs the SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model to simulate incremental temperature rises (2.5 °C, 5 °C, 7.5 °C, and 10 °C) in winter and summer. Results show warming significantly influences infections across seasonal, interannual, and decadal scales. Higher temperatures significantly impact infection rates, especially in autumn and winter, with long-lasting effects extending 5-6 years. Sustained warming lowers the total infection numbers compared to pre-warming levels. When winter and summer experience simultaneous warming, infection fluctuations during the warming period are mainly driven by winter warming. Winter warming also lowers the peak-to-trough infection ratio, reducing epidemic intensity fluctuations. Additionally, parameter choices can significantly affect the impact of warming on infection rates. Warming of varying intensity and duration can significantly impact influenza outbreaks, potentially altering their seasonal patterns in a global warming context.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"141 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143495523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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