npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献

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Nonlinear responses of the South Asian High to the Asian tropopause aerosol layer in summer 南亚高压对夏季亚洲对流层顶气溶胶层的非线性响应
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01085-x
Yuanjing Song, Wenshou Tian, Kai Qie, Yifeng Peng, Songjie Mao
{"title":"Nonlinear responses of the South Asian High to the Asian tropopause aerosol layer in summer","authors":"Yuanjing Song, Wenshou Tian, Kai Qie, Yifeng Peng, Songjie Mao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01085-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01085-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL) causes significant regional radiative forcing which may influence the tropospheric weather and climate. Our analysis reveals that the intensified ATAL weakens the South Asian High (SAH) and the South Asian Monsoon. The ATAL leads to increases in diabatic heating in the upper troposphere in the SAH region, induces an anomalous upward flow which decreases the adiabatic heating and causes cooling anomalies in the upper troposphere in the SAH region, and ultimately weakens the SAH (diabatic heating mechanism). However, responses of the SAH to the ATAL are nonlinear. Model results indicate that when the ATAL intensity is doubled, a temperature inversion occurs in the upper troposphere which tends to stabilize the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and prevent the upward moisture transport (static stability mechanism). The reduced latent heat release induces middle and upper tropospheric cooling in the SAH region, thereby weakens the SAH.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144130242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneity in ice sheets- vs. monsoon rainfall-induced silicate weathering from high to low latitudes 从高纬度到低纬度冰盖与季风降雨诱导的硅酸盐风化的异质性
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01079-9
Xuguang Feng, Jianjun Zou, Xuefa Shi, Zhengyao Lu, Hai Cheng, Yi Zhong, Zhengquan Yao, Zhaojie Yu, Hanying Li, Zhi Dong, Debo Zhao, Han Feng, Jiang Dong, Kunshan Wang
{"title":"Heterogeneity in ice sheets- vs. monsoon rainfall-induced silicate weathering from high to low latitudes","authors":"Xuguang Feng, Jianjun Zou, Xuefa Shi, Zhengyao Lu, Hai Cheng, Yi Zhong, Zhengquan Yao, Zhaojie Yu, Hanying Li, Zhi Dong, Debo Zhao, Han Feng, Jiang Dong, Kunshan Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01079-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01079-9","url":null,"abstract":"<p>One of the most challenging problems in paleoclimate research is how orbital cyclicities forced Earth’s climate variations during the late Quaternary. To address this issue, we investigated the differences in silicate weathering, a sensitive climate indicator, at different latitudes on orbital timescales by examining geochemical and clay mineral data from the mid-latitude Sea of Okhotsk and integrating published weathering records from low to high latitudes. Results show that silicate weathering in the mid-latitude Sea of Okhotsk responded sensitively to both temperature and rainfall, indicating the combined influence of ice sheets and low-latitude monsoons. However, silicate weathering is more sensitive to temperature in high-latitude regions, and to rainfall in tropical areas. Therefore, ice sheets primarily control silicate weathering at high latitudes, whereas monsoon rainfall has greater influences in tropical areas. These findings seem to support the “Milankovitch–Kutzbach” hypothesis, which proposes that ice sheets and monsoons together control orbital-scale climate variations of Earth.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144130286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal characteristics of summer extreme precipitation over the Inner Tibetan Plateau in recent decades 近几十年青藏高原夏季极端降水时空特征
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01089-7
Zhiyuan Ding, Yao Ha, Yijia Hu, Yimin Zhu, Haixia Dai, Zhong Zhong
{"title":"Spatiotemporal characteristics of summer extreme precipitation over the Inner Tibetan Plateau in recent decades","authors":"Zhiyuan Ding, Yao Ha, Yijia Hu, Yimin Zhu, Haixia Dai, Zhong Zhong","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01089-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01089-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP), serving as a critical component of the Asian hydrological circulation, has witnessed an increase in summer extreme precipitation events under global warming. However, the spatiotemporal characteristics and underlying mechanisms of the events remain insufficiently understood. This study identifies two distinct synoptic patterns that govern summer regional extreme precipitation events (REPEs) over the ITP from 1979 to 2020. The first pattern (REPE1, constituting 50.5% of the events) is characterized by a Rossby wave train inducing a negative-positive-negative geopotential height anomaly, accompanied by moisture convergence via southwesterlies and convective updrafts over the southeastern ITP. Conversely, the second pattern (REPE2, 49.5%) features a persistent positive-negative-positive geopotential height anomaly associated with mid-to-high latitude circulation, along with moisture convergence driven by southeasterlies and ascending motions over the southwestern ITP. Moreover, both REPE1 and REPE2 have exhibited increased frequencies post-2010, with REPE2 showing a more pronounced upward trend. The rising frequencies of REPE1 and REPE2 have contributed significantly to the increase in extreme precipitation over the ITP in recent decades.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144113968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of water vapor on stratospheric temperature after the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption: direct radiative cooling versus indirect warming by facilitating large particle formation 2022年亨加汤加火山喷发后水汽对平流层温度的影响:通过促进大颗粒形成的直接辐射冷却与间接变暖
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01056-2
Xi Chen, Jun Wang, Meng Zhou, Zhendong Lu, Lyatt Jaegle, Luke D. Oman, Ghassan Taha
{"title":"Impact of water vapor on stratospheric temperature after the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption: direct radiative cooling versus indirect warming by facilitating large particle formation","authors":"Xi Chen, Jun Wang, Meng Zhou, Zhendong Lu, Lyatt Jaegle, Luke D. Oman, Ghassan Taha","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01056-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01056-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The unprecedented water vapor amount (WV, 150–160 Tg) injected by the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai not only directly cooled the stratosphere, but also facilitated the formation and growth of sulfate particles, indirectly heating it. Here, we developed analytical models constrained by satellite observations to quantify these contrasting roles of WV in stratospheric temperature perturbations. Our analysis revealed that condensation and nucleation processes facilitated by abundant WV accounted for ~90% of the observed particle radius growth, from 0.1–0.2 µm to 0.35–0.45 µm. Despite increased aerosol extinction due to particle growth, a cooling of up to −4 K was observed in the mid-stratosphere, persisting for over a year since February, with over 60% attributed to WV radiative cooling. Conversely, in the lower stratosphere, ~50% of the observed 1–2 K warming was attributed to the radiative heating of large particles that formed in upper layers and settled down gravitationally.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"131 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144097347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The response of AUSM to precession forcing and its relation to EASM and EAWM 澳洲高原对岁差强迫的响应及其与东亚高原和东亚高原的关系
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01084-y
Mi Yan, Zhengyu Liu, Bin Wang, Xinwei Kong, Liang Ning, Qin Wen, Jian Liu
{"title":"The response of AUSM to precession forcing and its relation to EASM and EAWM","authors":"Mi Yan, Zhengyu Liu, Bin Wang, Xinwei Kong, Liang Ning, Qin Wen, Jian Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01084-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01084-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The East Asian monsoon (EAM) and the Australian monsoon (AUM), which constitute the two subsystems of the Asian-Australian monsoon system, are dynamically linked through cross-equatorial flows while also responding distinctly to external forcings. Although previous studies have examined their relationships across various timescales, their connection at the orbital timescale remains underexplored. Through a series of simulations, we demonstrate that Australian Summer Monsoon (AUSM) precipitation varies out of phase with East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation at the precession timescale due to local insolation changes. At the same timescale, the relationship between AUSM circulation and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation is weak. This weak linkage arises from the precession-induced inter-hemispheric insolation gradient, which diminishes cross-equatorial flow and consequently weakens the dynamical links between AUSM and EAWM circulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144097345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Faster recovery of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-induced cold wakes in recent decades 近几十年来北大西洋热带气旋引起的寒流恢复较快
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01029-5
Effy B. John, Karthik Balaguru, L. Ruby Leung, Gregory R. Foltz, Samson M. Hagos
{"title":"Faster recovery of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-induced cold wakes in recent decades","authors":"Effy B. John, Karthik Balaguru, L. Ruby Leung, Gregory R. Foltz, Samson M. Hagos","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01029-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01029-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Intense winds associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) generate surface ocean cooling in their wakes, which can persist for several weeks in their aftermath. While multi-decadal observations of the sea surface have shown a substantial warming of the ocean, long-term changes in cold wake recovery time remain largely unknown. Here we find a trend toward faster recovery of TC cold wakes in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) since 2001. This is due primarily to a decrease in the strength of the North Atlantic trade winds, which reduces evaporative cooling of the ocean. The faster damping of TC cold wakes has led to a significant increase in the intensification of subsequent TCs that encounter lingering wakes from prior TCs, with a magnitude that is about 9% of that from long-term warming of the ocean. Finally, earth system model simulations indicate that the observed decrease in the cold wake recovery time will likely continue into the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144087880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The synergistic effect of the North Pacific and the North Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature on winter–spring cold events in Eastern North America 北太平洋和北热带大西洋海温对北美东部冬春冷事件的协同效应
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00892-y
Kai Ji, Ruiqiang Ding, Linlu Mei
{"title":"The synergistic effect of the North Pacific and the North Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature on winter–spring cold events in Eastern North America","authors":"Kai Ji, Ruiqiang Ding, Linlu Mei","doi":"10.1038/s41612-024-00892-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00892-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cold events occur in North America (NA) frequently, which pose a significant threat to extensive damage to traffic and agriculture. Research on cold events in NA has mainly focused on the individual impacts of the sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, with less analysis of their synergistic effect. Here we utilize observational data and numerical experiments to show that the positive North Pacific Victoria mode (VM) and the negative North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST exert significant synergistic effects on the winter–spring cold events in eastern NA via Rossby waves propagation. Specifically, the VM-related negative western North Pacific (WNP) SST anomalies are linked to upper-tropospheric wind convergence anomalies in situ, which excite a Rossby wave train from the WNP to the North Atlantic and thus strengthen the high-level negative geopotential height anomalies (GHAs) over eastern NA and the positive air-ocean feedback over the North Atlantic. As a result, the negative GHAs strengthened by the positive VM and negative NTA SST cause increased extreme cold events. Further results reveal that the negative GHAs and cold events in eastern NA during the co-occurrence of the positive VM and negative NTA SST events are more than three times stronger than those for the two kinds of single events. This study suggests that the synergistic effect of the positive VM and negative NTA SST anomalies could advance our comprehensive understanding of the combined effect of the inter-basin SST anomalies on the mid-to-high-latitude climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144087879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Emissions and potential tracer screening of semivolatile/intermediate-volatility organic compounds from urban vehicle fleets 城市车辆中半挥发性/中间挥发性有机化合物的排放和潜在示踪剂筛选
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01078-w
Yajun Wu, Jianfei Peng, Xiaoguo Wang, Peiji Liu, Yan Liu, Fuyang Zhang, Jinsheng Zhang, Bin Sun, Jingqiao Zhang, Kai Song, Pengfei Song, Lin Wu, Ting Wang, Song Guo, Hongjun Mao
{"title":"Emissions and potential tracer screening of semivolatile/intermediate-volatility organic compounds from urban vehicle fleets","authors":"Yajun Wu, Jianfei Peng, Xiaoguo Wang, Peiji Liu, Yan Liu, Fuyang Zhang, Jinsheng Zhang, Bin Sun, Jingqiao Zhang, Kai Song, Pengfei Song, Lin Wu, Ting Wang, Song Guo, Hongjun Mao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01078-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01078-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Semi-/intermediate volatile organic compounds (S/IVOCs) are important precursors for secondary organic aerosols (SOA) and ozone formation. Vehicle emissions from real-world vehicle fleets are significant anthropogenic source, but their emission profiles and chemical fingerprints remain inadequately characterized. Here, we combined tunnel observation with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry to investigate vehicular S/IVOCs emissions. We identified 256 vehicle-related compounds with fleet-average emission factors (EFs) of 16.4 ± 12.1 mg·km<sup>−1</sup>·veh<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>, comprising 67.2% VOCs, 24.3% IVOCs, and 8.5% SVOCs. VOCs accounted for the majority of ozone formation potential (OFP, 84.8%), whereas VOCs, IVOCs, and SVOCs contributed to SOA formation potential at different times. Importantly, our speciated-based SOA estimation enhanced SOA production estimates by 44.1–76.9% compared to traditional approach. We identified eight potential vehicle-related tracers in S/IVOC range through volcano plots and hierarchical clustering analysis, which could benefit future source apportionments. Our work also offers a novel perspective for screening tracers from various sources beyond vehicle-related emissions.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"132 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing direct radiative effect of aging black carbon using an advanced aerosol optics module AI-NAOS and the climate model CAM6 利用先进气溶胶光学模块AI-NAOS和气候模式CAM6评估老化黑碳的直接辐射效应
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01080-2
Xuan Wang, Xingru Wu, Lei Bi
{"title":"Assessing direct radiative effect of aging black carbon using an advanced aerosol optics module AI-NAOS and the climate model CAM6","authors":"Xuan Wang, Xingru Wu, Lei Bi","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01080-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01080-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Large uncertainties still exist in the estimation of black carbon (BC) radiative forcing due to incomplete representation of BC optical properties. To address this, this study employed the AI-based nonspherical aerosol optical scheme (AI-NAOS), coupled with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), to comprehensively estimate the optical properties of the aging BC and its direct radiative effect (DRE). The AI-NAOS was obtained from a database of accurate optical properties of encapsulated fractal aggregates computed from the invariant imbedding T-matrix method (IITM). With this scheme, the aging progress of BC in the CAM6 can be explicitly resolved by the volume fraction and the optical properties can be efficiently inferred from the deep neural network (DNN) in real time. Based on decadal-long simulations from 2010 to 2020, the BC DRE of fractal aggregates was estimated to be +0.3 w/m<sup>2</sup> globally and +1.3 w/m<sup>2</sup> over East Asia, representing decreases of 40.0% and 38.1%, respectively, compared to spherical assumptions. Additionally, an idealized scenario was considered where BC quantities were increased tenfold. In this scenario, the aging process was minimized due to insufficient hygroscopic aerosols for encapsulating BC aerosols. Compared to the normal scenario, the incremental ratio of radiative effects based on the fractal aggregate model was 11.1 globally and 9.1 over East Asia, whereas it was 7.6 globally and 5.3 over East Asia based on spherical assumptions. These results indicate that, compared to spherical assumptions, stronger enhancement of BC DRE could be produced using more realistic models in scenarios with higher BC emission. Whether the radiative effect is reduced or enhanced using realistic particle models depend on the competing roles of particle nonsphericity and encapsulation (lensing effect) in influencing BC absorption capabilities.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144083200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet 从副热带急流的波浪扰动看东亚冬季风的亚季节变率与马登-朱利安涛动的联系
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01076-y
Junyi Xiu, Xianan Jiang, Renhe Zhang
{"title":"Linking the subseasonal variability of the East Asia winter monsoon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation through wave disturbances along the subtropical jet","authors":"Junyi Xiu, Xianan Jiang, Renhe Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01076-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01076-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite an urgent demand for reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions to guide disaster preparedness, our current climate models show limited S2S prediction skill, particularly for precipitation, due to an inadequate understanding of the key processes that drive regional S2S variability. Here we demonstrate that the leading subseasonal variability mode of precipitation over the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) region is not only closely tied to the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), but also linked to precipitation and temperature extremes worldwide, influenced by a circumglobal Rossby wave-train along the subtropical westerly jet. Despite a close phase-lock relationship between the MJO and subseasonal EAWM precipitation, our findings indicate that the MJO itself may only play a minor role in the subseasonal EAWM variability. Given its significant impact on the S2S variability of global weather extremes, we call for coordinated community efforts to enhance the understanding and prediction of the circumglobal Rossby wave-train.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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