npj Climate and Atmospheric Science最新文献_第9页

Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes 越来越多的人为气候变化在区域性每周极端火灾中留下了印记

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01021-z

Sifang Feng, Jakob Zscheischler, Zengchao Hao, Emanuele Bevacqua

{"title":"Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes","authors":"Sifang Feng, Jakob Zscheischler, Zengchao Hao, Emanuele Bevacqua","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01021-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01021-z","url":null,"abstract":"Wildfires cause large damage to natural and human systems. Despite the clear connection between human-induced climate change and increased fire weather risk, a global, systematic attribution of observed extreme fires to human-induced climate change is lacking. Here, we address this gap by first linking observed regional weekly burned area extremes (>85th percentile) to the fire weather index (FWI) during the fire seasons of 2002–2015 via a logistic regression model, and then using simulations from climate models to quantify the impact of human-induced climate change. Focusing on regions with good predictability of the statistical model, we find that human-induced climate change was responsible for a fraction equal to 8% (±4%, standard deviation across climate models) of the predicted probability of more than 700 regional fire extremes on average, thereby increasing the probability of experiencing a fire extreme across 15 out of 19 analysed regions. While higher temperature is the main driver of the increased fire extreme probability, shifts in precipitation, relative humidity, and/or wind speed substantially modulated fire changes across many regions. Mainly because of warming, the probability of extreme fires attributable to human-induced climate change increased by 5.2%/decade globally over 2002–2015, in line with an acceleration of the climate-driven enhancement of fire extremes over the last decades that may continue in the near future. These findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable fire management strategies.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143862916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to the recent tropical La Niña-like cooling pattern 平流层臭氧消耗促成了近期热带地区类似拉尼娜现象的降温模式

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01020-0

Yue Dong, Lorenzo M. Polvani, Yen-Ting Hwang, Mark R. England

引用次数: 0

Predictable equatorial Atlantic variability from atmospheric convection-ocean coupling 大气对流-海洋耦合带来的可预测赤道大西洋变率

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01041-9

Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Mojib Latif

引用次数: 0

Air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in Chinese cities: insights from a multi-city analysis during the pandemic’s first wave 中国城市的空气污染和COVID-19死亡率：来自大流行第一波期间多城市分析的见解

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01042-8

Songtao Wang, Tianyu Liu, Yaqian Su, Jiayuan Hao, Mu Qiao, Suyang Liu

{"title":"Air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in Chinese cities: insights from a multi-city analysis during the pandemic’s first wave","authors":"Songtao Wang, Tianyu Liu, Yaqian Su, Jiayuan Hao, Mu Qiao, Suyang Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01042-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01042-8","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigated the association between air pollutant exposure and COVID-19 mortality using a generalized additive model (GAM) with a negative binomial distribution, analyzing data from 45 Chinese cities. The pollutants assessed were nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), and particulate matter (PM2.5). Results showed that a 10 µg/m3 increase in NO2 was associated with a 28.3% rise in COVID-19 mortality risk (RR = 1.283, 95% CI: 1.143–1.351). PM2.5 significantly increased mortality risk only in Wuhan (RR = 1.212, 95% CI: 1.110–1.323). In contrast, SO2 and O3 were protective, with O3 reducing mortality risk by up to 11.1% at certain lag periods. Stratified analysis indicated a markedly stronger effect of NO2 in southeastern regions. These findings highlight the need to address air pollution in pandemic preparedness and call for further research on its regional impacts to guide targeted public health interventions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143862917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Future changes in tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific under climate change 气候变化下北太平洋西部热带气旋路径的未来变化

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01036-6

Xi Cao, Renguang Wu, Xianling Jiang, Yifeng Dai, Pengfei Wang, Changgui Lin, Difei Deng, Ying Sun, Liang Wu, Shangfeng Chen, Yuanhao Wang, Xiao Xiao

{"title":"Future changes in tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific under climate change","authors":"Xi Cao, Renguang Wu, Xianling Jiang, Yifeng Dai, Pengfei Wang, Changgui Lin, Difei Deng, Ying Sun, Liang Wu, Shangfeng Chen, Yuanhao Wang, Xiao Xiao","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01036-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01036-6","url":null,"abstract":"The current study, leveraging large ensemble high-resolution atmospheric model simulations (d4PDF) with three warming scenarios, uncovers potential shifts in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks within the western North Pacific (WNP) under future warming. Both northward and eastward migrations are detected in projected TC tracks. TC tracks north of 40°N are projected to surge by 25% and 65%, respectively, under the future 2 K and 4 K warming scenarios. Meantime, TC tracks south of 40°N and east of 160°E are projected to increase by 15% and 36%, respectively, under the two warming scenarios. These changes in TC tracks are intimately linked to shifts in TC genesis locations and alterations in large-scale steering flows. Specifically, the increase in TC tracks north of 40°N is attributed to a slowdown of the TC movement due to slow-down of westerly steering flows. The increase in TC tracks east of 160°E is closely associated with the rise in TC genesis east of 160°E due to an anomalous cyclone. Additionally, there is a decrease in projected TC landfalling along the East Asian coast, predominantly attributable to the reduced TC genesis west of 160°E. Our findings emphasize the heightened vulnerability of high-latitude regions in China and Japan to TC hazards under future warming conditions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"91 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143847219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ocean-atmosphere feedbacks key to NAO decadal predictability 海洋-大气反馈是NAO年代际可预测性的关键

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01027-7

Casey R. Patrizio, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Doug M. Smith, Dario Nicolì

{"title":"Ocean-atmosphere feedbacks key to NAO decadal predictability","authors":"Casey R. Patrizio, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Doug M. Smith, Dario Nicolì","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01027-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01027-7","url":null,"abstract":"Evidence has emerged that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may be predictable on decadal timescales, which may greatly benefit society given the significant climate impacts that accompany the NAO. However, the mechanisms behind the apparent decadal predictability of the NAO, including the role of ocean-atmosphere interactions, have not yet been pinned down. In this study, the decadal prediction skill for the NAO and the interactions with the underlying ocean are assessed in retrospective forecasts spanning 1960–2020 using eight different decadal prediction systems (DPSs) and observation-based data. We find considerable spread in NAO skill across the DPSs and critically, that this is linked to differences in the representation of ocean-NAO interactions between the systems. Evidence is shown that NAO skill is related to positive feedback between subpolar SSTs and the NAO, which varies in strength between DPSs yet may still be too weak even in the most skillful systems compared to an observational estimate. We also report evidence that the positive feedback is opposed by a delayed negative feedback between the NAO and the ocean circulation, which is used to further explain the disparities in NAO skill across systems. Our findings, therefore, suggest that North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions are central to NAO decadal predictability.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143841386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unstable permafrost regions experience more severe heatwaves in a warming climate 在气候变暖的情况下，不稳定的永久冻土地区会经历更严重的热浪

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01037-5

Xiangfei Li, Lin Zhao, Shuo Wang, Xinghua Cheng, Lingxiao Wang

{"title":"Unstable permafrost regions experience more severe heatwaves in a warming climate","authors":"Xiangfei Li, Lin Zhao, Shuo Wang, Xinghua Cheng, Lingxiao Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01037-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01037-5","url":null,"abstract":"Heatwaves are causing catastrophic consequences on natural and socioeconomic systems yet they remain under-investigated in permafrost regions. Using simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we present a comprehensive assessment of recent and future heatwaves across the permafrost regions of the Northern Hemisphere (PRNH). Our focus is on the characteristics of summer and winter heatwaves as well as their potential implications for infrastructure stability. Results show that the PRNH has experienced increasing heatwaves over the past decades and is projected to face more frequent and intense heatwaves, especially under higher warming levels. Globally, summer heatwaves occur more frequently, whereas winter heatwaves exhibit higher intensity, with distinct regional behaviors. Both summer and winter heatwaves in the Arctic and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) occur more frequently than that in mid-latitude regions. The mid-latitudes present the strongest summer heatwaves, while the Arctic endures the most severe winter heatwaves. Historically, the Arctic and the QTP have been more affected by winter heatwaves due to their longer heatwave days and stronger intensity compared to summer heatwaves. Under warming scenarios, the Arctic is projected to continue facing greater winter heatwave pressure on account of the quick-enhancing intensity. Conversely, the QTP will be more affected by summer heatwaves due to their longer and rapidly growing heatwave days. Further analyses indicate that permafrost regions with high geohazard potential (GP) will come under greater summer heatwave stress, particularly in the Arctic and QTP, associated with longer heatwave days. The high-GP regions in Eurasia, however, are expected to bear more severe winter heatwaves driven by higher intensity. These findings deepen our understandings of heatwaves in PRNH and highlights the potential impacts of heatwaves on geohazards in permafrost regions.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143847244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding the driving mechanisms behind triple-dip La Niñas: insights from the prediction perspective 了解La三倾Niñas背后的驱动机制：从预测角度的见解

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01004-0

Han-Ching Chen, Yu-Heng Tseng, Jo-Hsu Huang, Ping-Han Juang

{"title":"Understanding the driving mechanisms behind triple-dip La Niñas: insights from the prediction perspective","authors":"Han-Ching Chen, Yu-Heng Tseng, Jo-Hsu Huang, Ping-Han Juang","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01004-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01004-0","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the mechanisms and predictability of multi-year La Niña events, focusing on the 1998–2001 and 2020–2023 triple-dip events, using a physically based statistical ENSO prediction model (EPM). The results highlight distinct driving mechanisms behind these two events. The 1998–2001 event was primarily initiated by substantial negative heat content anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, which resulted from the preceding strong El Niño. These negative heat content anomalies played a crucial role in sustaining cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) into the third year. In contrast, the 2020–2023 event, which lacked significant negative heat content anomalies, was characterized by persistent equatorial easterly wind anomalies induced by extratropical forcing from the Southern Hemisphere. The EPM successfully captures these differences, with tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling being the dominant factor in predictability for 1998–2001, especially during the second year, whereas extratropical forcing played a key role in improving forecasts for 2020–2023. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating extratropical influences to enhance the prediction skill of multi-year La Niña events, especially those with atypical tropical precursors.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143836849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Increasing probability of extreme rainfall preconditioned by humid heatwaves in global coastal megacities 全球沿海特大城市的潮湿热浪导致极端降雨的可能性增加

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01023-x

Poulomi Ganguli, Bruno Merz

{"title":"Increasing probability of extreme rainfall preconditioned by humid heatwaves in global coastal megacities","authors":"Poulomi Ganguli, Bruno Merz","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01023-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01023-x","url":null,"abstract":"Hot–wet compound events, the sequential occurrence of humid hot days followed by extreme rainfall, can cause catastrophic consequences, often exceeding the impacts of the isolated occurrence of each event. The urban-coastal microclimate is confounded by complex interactions of land–sea breeze circulations, urban effects of convection and rainfall, and horizontal advection of moisture, which can favor the hot–wet compound occurrence. We present the first observational assessment (1951–2022) of summertime hot–wet compound events across global coastal megacities. We find a significant (P < 0.001) increase in the frequency of hot–wet compound events in both hemispheres: on average, ~3 events in the 1950s to 43 events in the 2020s. Cities with upward trends in the frequency of hot–wet compound events are situated < 30 km from coasts, with cities in the southern hemisphere showing faster hot-to-wet transition times (<3 days) than cities in the northern hemisphere. Further, 26 out of 29 sites show increased extreme precipitation, reaching 153%, when humid heat amplitude rises from the 50th to 90th percentiles. Understanding hot–wet compound interactions over the world’s coasts is highly relevant for climate change impact assessment and informing climate adaptation.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143836850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Population aging mitigates food consumption-induced non-CO2 GHG emissions in China 人口老龄化缓解了中国食品消费引起的非二氧化碳温室气体排放

IF 9 1区地球科学

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01038-4

Kaijie Chen, Tao Huang, Xiaodong Zhang, Xinrui Liu, Xiaohu Jian, Hong Gao, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Yunchao Jiang, Yuan Zhao, Jianmin Ma

{"title":"Population aging mitigates food consumption-induced non-CO2 GHG emissions in China","authors":"Kaijie Chen, Tao Huang, Xiaodong Zhang, Xinrui Liu, Xiaohu Jian, Hong Gao, Shu Tao, Junfeng Liu, Yunchao Jiang, Yuan Zhao, Jianmin Ma","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01038-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01038-4","url":null,"abstract":"China has been experiencing rapidly growing agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aged population owing to its vast population and enormous food demands. However, the response of non-CO2 GHG emission to population aging-related food consumption is unclear. The food inspection survey reveals a significant difference in ruminant meat and staple food grain (typically rice) consumption between aged and young populations during the past decades. As a result, this dietary pattern in the aging population of 60+ reduce non-CO2 GHG emissions from 1.0 Tg CO2eq in 2005 to 10.1 Tg CO2eq in 2020 by one order of magnitude. By 2050, the net total non-CO2 GHG emissions from population aging-induced changes in food consumption will be further reduced by 34.5 Tg CO2eq under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), of which 86.8% is attributed to decreasing ruminant meat consumption (RMC), or 29.9 Tg CO2eq, accounting for 15.3% of total non-CO2 GHG emission from China’s RMC in 2050.","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143836851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0