Global Ecology and Biogeography最新文献

{"title":"The Diverse Reactions of Butterflies and Zygaenids (Lepidoptera) to Climate Change—A Large Scale, Multi-Species Study","authors":"Robert Birch,&nbsp;Lennart Nebel,&nbsp;Yannick Chittaro,&nbsp;Gabriel Hermann,&nbsp;Robert Trusch,&nbsp;Jörg Gelbrecht,&nbsp;Gregor Markl","doi":"10.1111/geb.70112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70112","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>An extensive dataset was used to decipher the different responses of 46 species of butterflies and Zygaenids (Lepidoptera) to climate change. The study included more than 1.5 million observations from four databases in Europe, with a south–north extension of about 1200 km from south-eastern France, via Switzerland and Baden-Württemberg (Germany) to Brandenburg (Germany). Altitude information was only available for France and Switzerland.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Europe.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>1894 to 2022.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Taxa Studied</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Lepidoptera, 46 species.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Linear models were used to investigate the change over time of the beginning, median, and end of the flight period, as well as the change in altitude. The length of the flight period and the altitudinal range of two time periods were compared. Distribution curves were interpreted with respect to changes in voltinism.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The beginning and the median of the flight period were increasingly earlier in 100% of the significant changes, while the end of the flight period was later in 69%. Below a mean altitude of about 1000 m, species were more likely to change phenology, while above 1500 m, altitude shift was more likely. In terms of voltinism, 47% of the distribution curves showed no change, 27% a major shift from one generation to another, 20% an additional generation, and 6% a merging of generations.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusion</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Four major responses to climate change were identified: no response (6 species in France, 5 in Switzerland), change in phenology (19 in France, 13 in Switzerland), change in altitude (11 in France, 21 in Switzerland) and change in both (2 in France and 7 in Switzerland). This study provides evidence that the response of Lepidoptera to climate change is variable and that these responses differ not only between species but also between regions. Ecological traits are used to discuss these differences in the species considered here.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/geb.70112","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144935075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Microbial Responses to Temperature Change Mediated by Nutrient Enrichment","authors":"Wenqian Zhao,&nbsp;Ang Hu,&nbsp;Janne Soininen,&nbsp;Jianjun Wang","doi":"10.1111/geb.70111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70111","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Understanding of the mechanisms in community reorganisation and predicting species distribution are challenging because species responses to warming vary notably. We assessed thermal responses of aquatic bacterial communities in 167 stream biofilms and 480 field aquatic microcosms on subtropical and temperate mountainsides with contrasting climates, and examined the joint effects of temperature and nutrients on thermal responses.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Galong and Qilian mountains of the Tibetan Plateau, China.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Time Period&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;July to September in 2018.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Major Taxa Studied&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Bacteria.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We examined bacterial communities using high-throughput sequencing. We quantified aggregated thermal responses of bacterial communities for each sample based on changes in species abundance along temperature gradients. Finally, we studied the effects of temperature change and nutrient enrichment on thermal responses using structural equation models.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Bacterial species showed consistent responses to temperature change within each climate zone in streams or microcosms. The magnitude of positive and negative thermal responses increased and decreased with lower rRNA operon copy numbers, respectively. In the two contrasting climate zones, the community-level thermal responses consistently increased with rising temperatures. Bacterial phyla and classes with diverse species thermal responses showed greater sensitivity of thermal responses to warming. Unexpectedly, thermal responses were more sensitive to warming at higher and lower nutrients in the subtropical wet and the temperate arid climate zones, respectively. The divergence is explained by the fact that nutrients showed stronger effects on thermal responses in the temperate arid than in the subtropical wet climate zones, while temperature was dominant in both climate zones. The result was consistent in streams and microcosms.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Our synthesis across two contrasting habitats and climates clearly shows consistent patterns in microbial thermal responses along temperature gradients. Sensitivity of thermal responses to warming is mediated by nutrient enrichment. Our findings provide a novel understanding ","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144935258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Indirect Effects of Temperature Drive Gradients in Fish Food Web Properties","authors":"Azenor Bideault,&nbsp;Matthieu Barbier,&nbsp;Arnaud Sentis,&nbsp;Michel Loreau,&nbsp;Dominique Gravel","doi":"10.1111/geb.70110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70110","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Understanding the direct (e.g., on biological rates) and indirect (e.g., through changes in species richness) effects of temperature on food web properties, in the context of latitudinal gradients and climate warming. We focus on species interactions and predict variations in two metrics of food web properties: trophic control and temporal variability.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Global oceans.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Time Period&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;2001–2018.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Major Taxa Studied&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Marine fish species.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We use a modelling approach coupled with a global dataset of fish food webs. Species occurrences are obtained from data sources, while trophic interactions are predicted by a size-based niche model calibrated with a global interaction dataset. Interaction strengths are constrained by allometric scaling laws for predation and biomass. We investigate how predictors varying with latitude (temperature, species richness, productivity, food web structure) drive latitudinal variations in trophic regulation and variability.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Our results suggest a latitudinal gradient in two metrics of community dynamics, with both trophic feedback strength (underlying phenomena such as cycles and cascades) and temporal stability increasing with latitude. In our model, this variation is tied directly and indirectly to temperature, and we find that direct effects of temperature are weaker than (or at most equal to) indirect effects. The direct effect on interaction rates decreases trophic feedbacks yet increases variability. The organism-level temperature–size rule is found to increase both feedback and variability. Finally, community-level indirect effects (species richness and connectance) impact trophic control but not variability. Climate warming moderately affects trophic control, variability and total biomass, but more strongly alters individual species biomass.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Our study improves understanding of the drivers of latitudinal variation in food web properties and helps disentangle the direct and indirect effects of temperature. Indirect effects are pr","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/geb.70110","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144923829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural and Compositional Disturbance Legacies Mediate the Resistance of European Forests to Repeated Disturbances","authors":"Niko Kulha,&nbsp;Georges Kunstler,&nbsp;Björn Reineking,&nbsp;Mikko Peltoniemi,&nbsp;Juha Honkaniemi,&nbsp;Kari T. Korhonen,&nbsp;Paloma Ruiz-Benito,&nbsp;Miguel A. Zavala,&nbsp;Pedro Rebollo,&nbsp;Julien Barrere","doi":"10.1111/geb.70106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70106","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Climate change is altering forest disturbance regimes across Europe. Structural and species diversity are generally thought to enhance disturbance resistance. However, how disturbances affect stand structure and tree species diversity remains untested across broad spatial gradients and for multiple disturbance agents. Furthermore, determining how disturbance-induced changes affect resistance to subsequent disturbances is critical for understanding forest dynamics in the face of global change.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The forests of Finland, France and Spain.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Time Period&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;1986–2020 &lt;span&gt;ce&lt;/span&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Major Taxa Studied&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Trees.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We examined the effects of tree size and tree species diversity on resistance to fire, wind, biotic and snow disturbances using a National Forest Inventory dataset of 4827 disturbed plots. We quantified disturbance resistance as the tree mortality response to different severity disturbances. We modelled the immediate disturbance-driven changes in structural and tree species diversity, and predicted how these changes affect resistance to subsequent disturbances.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;High structural diversity increased stand resistance to snow disturbance, and high species diversity decreased resistance to fire. Severe disturbances consistently decreased structural and species diversity across all disturbance agents. However, both diversity metrics increased after low severity snow disturbances, and structural diversity increased after low severity biotic disturbance. Resistance to subsequent disturbance increased after low severity fire and low to moderate severity wind disturbances. Biotic and snow disturbance had the opposite effect, with moderate severity disturbances decreasing resistance to subsequent disturbance more than low severity disturbances.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Structural and species diversity had little effect on plot-level disturbance resistance. Severe disturbances consistently decreased structural and species diversity, while low to moderate severity disturbances can increase these ","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/geb.70106","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Productivity Gradient Explains Global Bird Specialisation Better Than Climate Stability","authors":"Rafael Malmagro,&nbsp;Vicente García-Navas,&nbsp;Tharaka S. Priyadarshana,&nbsp;Felix Neff,&nbsp;Pelayo Barrios,&nbsp;Carlos Martínez-Núñez","doi":"10.1111/geb.70107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70107","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Historical and contemporary environmental factors are hypothesised to influence the degree of ecological specialisation of species. Long-term climate stability might facilitate specialisation by promoting stable environments and diversification (climate stability hypothesis). In contrast, current stress–productivity gradients could also moderate specialisation through: (i) environmental filtering in stressful (e.g., arid) environments or (ii) accumulation of specialised species in highly productive regions.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Pliocene-present.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Major Taxa Studied</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Birds.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We tested whether different specialisation facets (climate, diet and habitat) in bird assemblages are better explained by long-term climate stability or current stress-productivity gradients while accounting for latitude, longitude, biogeographic realm, taxonomic species richness and the evolutionary age of the assemblages at a global scale.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Long-term climatic stability was a weak predictor of bird specialisation after accounting for latitude. In contrast, aridity showed a consistent negative association with climate, diet, and habitat specialisation, even after controlling for latitude and species richness. Species richness was strongly positively associated with diet specialisation, suggesting the influence of niche filling processes. In addition, specialisation was more pronounced in high-productivity environments, indicating that greater niche availability fosters specialisation. Notably, the effects of aridity and assemblage mean evolutionary age on specialisation differed between hemispheres. While negative associations dominated in Southern realms, the Palearctic and Nearctic realms in the Northern Hemisphere showed more positive trends. This hemispheric contrast underscores the context-dependency of environmental effects on specialisation and points to biogeographic history as a potential modulator of these patterns.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Globally, stress-productivity gradients better explain patterns of","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/geb.70107","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144905440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Correction to Cold and Dark Captivity: Drivers of Amphibian Longevity","authors":"","doi":"10.1111/geb.70097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70097","url":null,"abstract":"<p><b>Stark G., Meiri S. Cold and dark captivity: Drivers of amphibian longevity. <i>Global Ecol Biogeogr</i>. 2018; 27: 1384–1397</b>. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12804.</p><p>After the authors changed all the mass data and the two longevity data points, they re-ran all analyses using the new dataset. The authors found similar results and patterns to the original results in their paper (see corrected tables and figures below). Indeed, if anything, patterns and results are somewhat stronger now than in their published, problematic analyses (the new analyses have steeper slopes for body size and higher model <i>R</i>² values).</p><p>We apologize for these errors.</p><p><b>Corrected amphibian longevity results</b>.</p><p>For the original, published results without the newly corrected data, see the appendix below.</p><p>Corrected Results: the results now obtained using the new body mass values for all species and corrected longevities for the giant salamanders, <i>Andrias davidianus</i> and <i>Andrias japonicus</i>.</p><p>Below are the corrected results for the published paper: Stark, G., &amp; Meiri, S. (2018). Cold and dark captivity: Drivers of amphibian longevity. <i>Global Ecology and Biogeography</i>, 27(11), 1384–1397. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12804.</p><p><b>Corrected TABLE 1</b> Linear regression (longevity ~ body size) using PGLS results based fixed dataset (max body size fixed and 2 species' longevities corrected using data from AnAge).\u0000 </p><p><b>Corrected TABLE 2</b> Minimal adequate model for the analysis of all amphibian species.\u0000 </p><p><b>Corrected TABLE 3</b> Minimal adequate model for the analysis of Anura order only.\u0000 </p><p><b>Corrected TABLE 4</b> Minimal adequate model for the analysis of Urodela order only.\u0000 </p><p>Appendix: Published tables and the figure that needed corrections.</p><p><b>Below is the original version, as published. The corrections for these tables and the figure appear above</b>.</p>","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/geb.70097","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144869237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Moving Beyond Temperature Metrics in Coral Bleaching Prediction Using Interpretable Machine Learning","authors":"Mandy W. M. Cheung,&nbsp;Milani Chaloupka,&nbsp;Karlo Hock,&nbsp;Peter J. Mumby","doi":"10.1111/geb.70105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70105","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Marine heatwaves are the greatest threat to coral reefs, but the interplay between other physical environmental factors often influences the thermal sensitivity of corals. While existing coral bleaching algorithms largely depend on temperature-related metrics, such relationships may not hold under climate change when corals experience thermal and environmental variability that may shape bleaching susceptibility. Our aim is to use an interpretable machine learning-based approach to explore the effects and critical thresholds of thermal history and environmental drivers on bleaching outcomes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Time Period</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>2016–2020.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Location</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Major Taxa Studied</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Scleractinia corals.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A spatially cross-validated ordinal random forest model was applied to predict 2643 observed coral bleaching outcomes of three levels using 19 potentially informative environmental parameters (i.e., predictors) across three bleaching events on the GBR. We estimated the importance and marginal effects of each predictor using the SHapley Additive exPlanations method. Using the 10 most important predictors, we then fitted and applied a model to predict bleaching on unsurveyed reefs with predictor properties that the model had high confidence in.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our model predicted bleaching intensities with 80% accuracy. While accumulated heat stress was the strongest predictor, non-linear interactions between drivers resolved observed bleaching outcomes and showed that heat stress alone could not always predict bleaching responses. Reefs with weak currents or high water clarity showed higher bleaching risk even with moderate heat stress. Severely heated reefs with high cloud cover or recent exposure to higher thermal stress exhibited lower bleaching risk.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We show that corals respond to acute heat stress differently depending on thermal history, water flow and light availability. Integrating environmental heterogeneity into coral bleaching algorithms, reef vulnerability assessment and ","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/geb.70105","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144861906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Different Macroevolutionary Trajectories Lead to Contrasting Ecogeographical Patterns in Two Widespread Frog Radiations","authors":"Helena Martínez-Gil,&nbsp;Antigoni Kaliontzopoulou,&nbsp;Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai","doi":"10.1111/geb.70109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70109","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Large-scale evolutionary radiations often occur through marked climatic gradients, which can promote morphological variation. However, opposite trends to the well-known ecogeographical rules can be observed in closely related clades across different geographic regions. Here, we compared macroscale patterns of morphological diversification between two geographically separated evolutionary radiations of widespread frogs to assess how morphological diversity has arisen and tested whether distinct ecogeographical rules operate at broad spatial scales.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Eurasia and America.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Time Period&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;~ 50 Mya.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Major Taxa Studied&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Rana&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;Lithobates&lt;/i&gt; genera.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We combined phylogenetic, morphological, climatic, and microhabitat data for 65 species of &lt;i&gt;Rana&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;Lithobates&lt;/i&gt; and used phylogenetic comparative methods to identify which factors have played a major role in the phenotypic diversification of the two radiations.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Morphological evolution in Eurasian subclades closely followed phylogenetic relatedness, with slow and constant rates of body size diversification through time. By contrast, American species showed accelerated rates of body size evolution in one subclade. Adaptive models (OU) best explained the morphological evolution of this radiation despite the lack of significant correlations with climatic variables, suggesting that selective pressures might have driven adaptation. Discordant ecogeographical trends were also found between radiations: Eurasian species followed Bergmann's rule and the water conservation hypothesis, while no clear trend was observed among American species.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Overall, different evolutionary trajectories between the two radiations lead to contrasting ecogeographical patterns, highlighting that distinct selective pressures and adaptive mechanisms can play very different roles in the evolution of phylogenetically related clades. Our research demonstrates that ecogeographical rules should not be considered universally applica","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/geb.70109","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144853700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental Predictability in Phylogenetic Comparative Analysis: How to Measure It and Does It Matter?","authors":"Ming Liu,&nbsp;Louis Bell-Roberts,&nbsp;Carlos A. Botero,&nbsp;Charlie K. Cornwallis,&nbsp;Stuart A. West","doi":"10.1111/geb.70108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70108","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aim</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Abiotic environmental conditions shape ecological and evolutionary processes, yet quantifying their influence on organisms remains challenging due to variation among metrics and their intercorrelations. This study evaluates the utility of temporal environmental predictability measures and assesses their explanatory power in phylogenetic comparative analyses.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Innovation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We systematically compare widely used metrics of predictability and explore their correlations with environmental means and variances in a global meteorological dataset. Using cooperative breeding birds as a case study, we assess the impact of including predictability metrics in phylogenetic comparative analyses. We demonstrate the consequences of choosing specific metrics and the trade-offs between increased data inclusion and model interpretability.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Predictability metrics, though intuitively meaningful, have been conceptualised and quantified with diverse approaches. We found that different measures of predictability can exhibit contrasting global patterns and strong correlations with other environmental quantities. Therefore, our findings caution against overloading statistical analyses with correlated predictors, highlighting the need for a thoughtful selection of environmental metrics to avoid spurious interpretations in ecological and evolutionary studies.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/geb.70108","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144853701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Large-Scale Variation in Biodiversity–Ecosystem Functioning (BEF) Relationships in Aquatic Metacommunities on Terrestrial Islands","authors":"Joren M. Snoeks,&nbsp;Aranya Pathak-Broome,&nbsp;James G. Hagan,&nbsp;Bram Vanschoenwinkel","doi":"10.1111/geb.70100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70100","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Aim&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Recent work has shown that the biodiversity of potential colonists in a landscape (the local species pool) may be more important for ecosystem functioning than the biodiversity in local habitat patches. However, it is unknown how such biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships may change across different biomes. To explore such patterns, nested insular ecosystems where variation in local biodiversity and local species pool biodiversity can be reliably quantified can provide important insights.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Location&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Rock pool metacommunities on isolated rocky outcrops (i.e., inselbergs) in Africa, Australia, Europe, and North America.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Time Period&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Sampling: 2011–2019.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Major Taxa Studied&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Freshwater invertebrates.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We assembled a large-scale dataset of invertebrate metacommunities from replicated rock pool clusters on inselbergs as a model system to test the ability of local biodiversity and local species pool biodiversity to explain community biomass in organisms with different survival strategies (active or passive dispersers). To test our hypotheses, we used a combination of directed acrylic graph-based path analyses and general linear mixed-effects models.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Results&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The biodiversity of the local species pool was influenced by climate but did not significantly impact community biomass. Instead, local environmental gradients seem to override any species pool effects on community biomass. However, in line with expectations, the relationship between local biodiversity and biomass varied across inselbergs. Contrary to expectations, inselberg prominence did not influence the BEF slope. However, in drier conditions, the BEF relationship weakened for active dispersers, likely reflecting environmental limits on recolonisation. Thus, climate and dispersal strategy jointly shaped how biodiversity influenced community biomass.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Main Conclusion&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;This study illustrates that even in a simple ecosystem there can be substantial geographical variation in the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning that may be partially explained by environmental conditions and by the survival strategy of the organisms considered.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/s","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"34 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144773435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}