{"title":"Concepts and Methods for Identifying Species Niche Edges, Potentially Truncated Edges, and Climate Risks and Opportunities","authors":"Nora Schlenker, John W. Williams","doi":"10.1111/geb.70241","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70241","url":null,"abstract":"Aim Unmitigated climate change will subject species to environments unlike any experienced for millions of years, creating new risks and opportunities for species, especially where niches are truncated and novel climates open previously unavailable portions of the fundamental niche. Here we present a conceptual framework and explore methods for identifying niche edges, potentially truncated edges, and the risks and opportunities associated with changing climate prevalence. Innovation We provide conceptual and methodological frameworks to identify and quantify potentially truncated edges and associated risks and opportunities which can be incorporated into studies regarding conservation biology and novel ecosystems. This method uses multidimensional kernel density analysis to identify portions of the niche that are particularly susceptible to climate changes, the potentially truncated niche edges. Climate‐prevalence analysis then identifies which portions of the niche, including edges, may become more (opportunity edge) or less (risk edge) common in the future. Using three North American tree species, we test the sensitivity of this method to different representations of climate (via dimension reduction) and species‐specific available climates (via buffer distance), discuss the geographic and environmental distributions of potentially truncated edges and risk/opportunity edges, and recommend future implementations of this method in research and conservation. Main Conclusions Niche‐edge and climate‐prevalence analyses together help identify populations sensitive to changes in climate and assess climate risk or opportunity. Estimates of edge frequency and climate‐prevalence risk/opportunity are sensitive to climate dimensionality, with 4‐dimensional representations recommended over 2‐dimensional representations, and to buffer distance, with buffers > 100 km showing the best performance. This new method complements traditional approaches for assessing species‐level effects of climate change, such as species distribution models, and can help conservation planning by identifying populations that are particularly vulnerable to disappearing climates versus populations poised to leverage the opportunities associated with novel climates, with perhaps surprising effects.","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147736844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Laura Sergeant, Paulina E. Pinto, Bastien Castagneyrol, Jean-Claude Gégout, Hervé Jactel, Neil Pederson, Cyrille Rathgeber, Damien Bonal
{"title":"Climate Change Has Impacted Tree Growth in Temperate and Boreal Forests Since the Beginning of the 21st Century, a Meta-Analysis Tells Us","authors":"Laura Sergeant, Paulina E. Pinto, Bastien Castagneyrol, Jean-Claude Gégout, Hervé Jactel, Neil Pederson, Cyrille Rathgeber, Damien Bonal","doi":"10.1111/geb.70239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70239","url":null,"abstract":"The first decade of the 21st century has marked a worsening of anthropogenic climate change which could induce a slowdown in tree growth. However, no consensus has emerged from studies published so far, as positive, negative, or no changes in long-term tree growth in temperate and boreal forests were locally found. We conducted a meta-analysis to reveal whether an overall change in tree growth trends has emerged in the last few decades and to determine which factors may have driven any such changes.","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147735636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wang Cai, Yuan Liu, YunAo Li, Min Cao, Carol C. Baskin, Jerry M. Baskin, Adriana Alzate, Renske E. Onstein, Jie Yang
{"title":"Joint Influence of Seed Dormancy and Dispersal Syndrome on Dispersal Distance and Range Size Across Two Climate Regions","authors":"Wang Cai, Yuan Liu, YunAo Li, Min Cao, Carol C. Baskin, Jerry M. Baskin, Adriana Alzate, Renske E. Onstein, Jie Yang","doi":"10.1111/geb.70234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.70234","url":null,"abstract":"Aim Long distance dispersal and the ability to delay germination under unfavourable conditions (dormancy) are critical for plant persistence and range expansion. However, how dispersal syndrome and dormancy interactively shape maximum dispersal distance and species range size across climate regions remains unclear. We tested the hypothesis that a trade‐off between dormancy and dispersal distance operates differently in animal‐mediated versus abiotic dispersal systems, and that climate modulates their influence on range size. Location Global. Time Period Current. Major Taxa Studied Seed plants. Methods We compiled data on dormancy, dispersal syndrome, maximum seed dispersal distance and range size for 631 plant species across 118 families worldwide. We used linear mixed effects models to examine how dormancy and dispersal syndromes interactively shape seed dispersal distance and range size across tropical and temperate regions. Results Non‐dormant species had larger maximum dispersal distances than dormant species, but only in abiotic dispersal systems, consistent with a trade‐off between dispersal and persistence traits (dormancy). In contrast, animal‐mediated dispersal led to larger dispersal distances than abiotic dispersal, regardless of whether species were dormant or not. The influence of dormancy and dispersal syndrome on range size was climate‐dependent. In tropical regions, animal‐mediated dispersal enhanced range size, while dormancy had little effect. In temperate regions, maximum seed dispersal distance was positively associated with range size, but neither dormancy nor animal‐mediated dispersal significantly affected range size. Main Conclusions The interplay between seed dormancy and dispersal syndromes shapes seed dispersal distance and species range size in climate‐specific ways. Animal‐mediated dispersal promotes larger maximum dispersal distances and larger range sizes in tropical regions. In contrast, in abiotic dispersal systems, dormancy leads to relatively small dispersal distances, but dormancy itself does not affect range sizes in temperate or tropical regions. Understanding dispersal‐dormancy dynamics is essential for predicting how plants will respond to environmental changes.","PeriodicalId":176,"journal":{"name":"Global Ecology and Biogeography","volume":"283 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147719652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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