International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Assessing household underestimation of hurricane food shortages via large language model agent simulation","authors":"Junkang Xu,&nbsp;Chao Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105734","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105734","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food shortages are a significant challenge to public health during natural disasters like hurricanes. Household food shortages during disasters often result from limited access to grocery stores, limited supplies of food, and limited preparation of food at home before a disaster. Existing literature has examined food shortages regarding food supply security and access to food providers. Little is known about how households estimate the duration of food shortages and make decisions about food preparation before disasters. This research proposes a method to quantify the causal impacts of socio-demographics, past experiences, economic status, and trust in community infrastructure on the estimation of food preparation, which also informs effective warning information to enhance the food preparation of households. We adopt a post-Hurricane Harvey household survey conducted in Harris County to apply Generalized Structural Equation Models and find that households with past hurricane experience are more prone to underestimating the impacts than those without such experience. Single-gender households underestimate food shortages more than balanced-gender households, while education is not a significant determinant. Furthermore, we incorporate the decision mechanisms into the Large Language Model and simulate household estimation of food shortages to different types of warning information tailored by economic, infrastructure, and social impacts. Warning information emphasizing infrastructure impacts is found to be effective for most households, while social impact-focused warning significantly improves elderly households’ estimations. Our work offers insights into human perceptions of disaster impacts and customized warning interventions in reducing the underestimation of hurricane-induced food shortages and emphasizes the need for context-specific delivery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105734"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cascading impacts of individual failures across critical infrastructures: The case of upper dam breach in pumped-storage hydropower schemes","authors":"Panagiotis Dimas ,&nbsp;Archontia Lykou ,&nbsp;Akis Zarkadoulas ,&nbsp;Georgia-Konstantina Sakki ,&nbsp;Andreas Efstratiadis ,&nbsp;Christos Makropoulos ,&nbsp;Argyro Louloudi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105736","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105736","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The assessment of critical infrastructures vulnerable to cascade failure phenomena requires a holistic viewpoint accounting for the full cause-effect chain. A key case is the upper dam failure in pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) systems, which can severely impact downstream infrastructures. This study proposes a generalized framework to examine the potential consequences of this catastrophic event, which is then showcased to a planned pumped-storage system in the Aliakmon River basin, Greece. It integrates hydrodynamic simulations and semi-empirical approaches to assess dam failure mechanisms and flood wave propagation, impulse wave generation, flood routing through the lower reservoir, and resulting risks. Several scenarios are deployed through HEC-RAS and BASEbreach models, accounting for the influence of terrain on wave dynamics and flood propagation. Impulse waves generated by sudden water inflows are modeled using theoretical and semi-empirical methods, with key parameters such as wave amplitude, run-up, and attenuation evaluated under both 2D and 3D propagation conditions. The core scientific question is whether wave heights and run-up remain within safety thresholds, and how resilient PSH systems are under cascading failures. The framework supports enhanced risk assessment, resilient hydropower design, and sustainable water-energy infrastructure planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105736"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144764033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the urban flood risk mitigation and cost-effectiveness of green roofs: A case study of Kunming, China","authors":"Shouquan Yang ,&nbsp;Lihong Yang ,&nbsp;Jing Tan ,&nbsp;Zhiyong Yuan ,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Xie ,&nbsp;Xingfeng Fu ,&nbsp;Zhengtao Peng ,&nbsp;Tong Xu ,&nbsp;Jianglong He ,&nbsp;Lei Zhao ,&nbsp;Shihan Bai ,&nbsp;Songyun Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105738","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105738","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a key sponge city infrastructure, green roofs serve as an effective source control measure for mitigating increasingly frequent urban flooding. Nevertheless, studies remain scarce regarding post-implementation flood risk variations and cost-benefit analysis of green roof retrofits. This study adopted a combination of monitoring and simulation methods to calibrate the parameters of green roofs. We further employed evaluation metrics and scenario simulations to analyze their impact on urban flood risk, supplemented by a life cycle cost-benefit assessment focusing on runoff regulation and flood damage reduction. Results indicate that: (1) The implemented green roofs effectively reduced runoff from rainfall events below 21 mm, with the calibrated model showing high validity (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient = 0.829). (2) Green roofs reduce overall runoff and surface water accumulation, thereby lowering flood risks. But its effectiveness wanes as rainfall increases. Under moderate, heavy, and storm rainfall conditions, the reduction in runoff in high-risk areas was 58.94 %, 8.99 %, and 2.86 %. (3) Over a 30-year lifecycle, the cost of implementing 0.97 km² of green roofs is about 149.45 million dollars, while the benefits from water regulation and flood loss reduction amount to approximately 511.14 million dollars, yielding a cost-effectiveness ratio of 0.2924.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105738"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Onshore probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments through compounding the dynamic interactions of sea level rise, tidal levels, and land use changes: A case study of Banda Aceh, 20 Years after the 2004 Aceh Tsunami","authors":"Tursina ,&nbsp;Syamsidik ,&nbsp;Shigeru Kato ,&nbsp;Mochammad Afifuddin ,&nbsp;Muhammad Daffa Al Farizi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105733","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105733","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a probabilistic tsunami hazard assesment (PTHA), due to the influence of sea level rise and its interaction with tides and land use/cover change. The city of Banda Aceh (Indonesia) was chosen as the location of this research study because it is vulnerable to tsunami hazards and coastal hazards, including sea level rise (SLR). The 90 tsunami scenarios were simulated, consisting of 6 earthquake magnitudes of Mw 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, 8.8, 9.0, and 9.2, five phases of tidal levels, and SLRs of 50 and 100 years. As an aspect of vulnerability, land use/cover changes (LULC) are projected for the next 50 and 100 years. Several observation points represent the variety of land use/land cover in Banda Aceh, in terms of tsunami height and analysis of hazard curves. According to the findings of the study, there is a significant difference between PTHA without SLR, and PTHA with SLR influence. This significant difference is also observed when the tsunami propagates at high tide, compared to low tide. The interaction between sea level rise and high tides provides a significant impact on tsunami height and land use and land cover in Banda Aceh. Tsunami interaction with tides and sea level rise shortens the return period of tsunami probability. These results show that the dynamic interaction of tsunami waves between tides, sea level rise, and land use/land cover cannot be ignored in assessing the tsunami hazard, in order to gain more precise estimations. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to another region with a similar condition. With the potentially increasing coastal hazards in the future, due to climate change, that can have a greater impact on the tsunami disaster, this implies the need for Integrated Coastal Zone Management for tsunami risk reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105733"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DamageCAT: A deep learning transformer framework for typology-based post-disaster building damage categorization","authors":"Yiming Xiao,&nbsp;Ali Mostafavi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid, accurate, and descriptive building damage assessment is critical for directing post-disaster resources, yet current automated methods typically provide only binary (damaged/ undamaged) or ordinal severity scales. This paper introduces DamageCAT, a framework that advances damage assessment through typology-based categorical classifications. We contribute: (1) the BD-TypoSAT dataset containing satellite image triplets from Hurricane Ida with four damage categories – partial roof damage, total roof damage, partial structural collapse, and total structural collapse – and (2) a hierarchical U-Net-based transformer architecture for processing pre- and post-disaster image pairs. Our model achieves 0.737 IoU and 0.846 F1-score overall, with cross-event evaluation demonstrating transferability across Hurricane Harvey, Florence, and Michael data. While performance varies across damage categories due to class imbalance, the framework shows that typology-based classification can provide more actionable damage assessments than traditional severity-based approaches, enabling targeted emergency response and resource allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105704"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling the non-linear impact of multiple pandemics on small and micro enterprises: a longitudinal study of operational challenges","authors":"Fan Li ,&nbsp;Matteo Rubinato ,&nbsp;Kai Wu ,&nbsp;Lin Wang ,&nbsp;Songdong Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105737","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105737","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the dynamic impacts of multiple Covid-19 pandemic waves on operational challenges is crucial for mall and micro enterprises (SMEs) to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability. This study employs a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model to analyze operational challenges faced by SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, based on time-series data collected from 592 SMEs in Dongguan, China, between June 2021 to December 2022. The findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic growth has nonlinear impacts on customer loss, business interruptions, and supply chain issues, while its influence on cost increases is linear. These effects vary by lag periods and risk regimes. Customer loss and supply chain challenges show greater fluctuations in high-risk regimes but moderate responses in low-risk regimes. Conversely, business interruptions exhibit milder fluctuations in high-risk regimes and pronounced shifts in low-risk ones. This study offers a scientific basis for SMEs owners and policymakers to design adaptive, stage-specific measures. Insights from these findings can strengthen SMEs’ crisis management strategies, contributing to the stability and sustainable development of the economy and society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105737"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144826557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Communicating natural hazards science advice: Understanding scientists', decision-makers’, and the public's perceptions of the scientific process","authors":"Emma E. H. Doyle ,&nbsp;Jessica Thompson ,&nbsp;Stephen R. Hill ,&nbsp;Matt Williams ,&nbsp;Douglas Paton ,&nbsp;Sara E. Harrison ,&nbsp;Ann Bostrom ,&nbsp;Julia S. Becker","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105731","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How individuals perceive scientific processes impacts their interpretation of, trust in, and use of, science advice particularly when managing uncertain natural hazard risk. We explored a) how diverse stakeholders understand how science of natural hazards is produced, and b) how this relates to their ontological, epistemological, and philosophical views of science. Using inductive analysis of semi-structured interviews with 31 participants involved in the management of natural hazards in Aotearoa New Zealand (including non-scientists), we produced three leading themes describing their views: 1) ‘Science is a way of seeing the world’; 2) ‘Science has limitations’; and 3) ‘Knowledge evolves’.</div><div>Across Scientist, non-Scientist, and Lay public groups, there was broad agreement on the fundamental steps of the scientific process, aligning mostly with a hypothetico-deductive process. However, many discussed how others may have different perspectives of scientific approaches, truth, and reality. These are informed by training, disciplinary biases, cultural practices, and personal experience of hazards and associated science.</div><div>We propose that individuals who recognise different worldviews and philosophies of science will experience higher levels of communication and cognitive uncertainty, which encourages information seeking behaviour and can improve communication efficacy, particularly during high pressure events. We conclude with three communication lessons: 1) be transparent about the processes and causes of change in natural hazards science advice; 2) communicate as both trusted individuals as well as through collective Science Advisory Group (SAG) systems; and 3) provide accessible structures and language to help lay people articulate scientific processes they often intuitively understand, rather than just simplifying information.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105731"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unpacking drought impacts and adaptive strategies in Morocco – perspectives from small-scale farmers","authors":"Elisabeth A. Shrimpton ,&nbsp;Tanaya Sarmah ,&nbsp;Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan ,&nbsp;Sanaa Malki ,&nbsp;Ahmed Jelloul ,&nbsp;Mohammed Ouikhalfan ,&nbsp;Abdelaziz Nilahyane ,&nbsp;Lamfeddal Kouisni ,&nbsp;Da Huo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105732","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105732","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Droughts in North Africa are increasing in frequency and severity. The most vulnerable include small-scale farming communities and the associated small businesses with wide-ranging impacts and demands on local communities, food production, water allocation, and energy requirements. Our solution-orientated study supports the mitigation of impacts and the management of droughts in two case study areas within Morocco. A 2-day workshop was conducted to engage with local farmers in Settat and El Jadida to better understand the drought impacts and associated adaptive strategies. A Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) approach was used to actively engage and interact with the farmers and to gain an understanding of the interconnections between drought, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies, and issues to their livelihood and as seen through their experiences. The perspectives give new insights into where the policy interventions for the most impact in the system might be.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105732"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"HydroLang FRAM: Web-based framework for comprehensive flood risk and mitigation assessment and communication","authors":"Moiyyad Sufi ,&nbsp;Carlos Erazo Ramirez ,&nbsp;Ibrahim Demir","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105735","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105735","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the frequency and impact of floods increase, real-time systems for assessing and sharing flood risk and mitigation information are becoming increasingly important for supporting stakeholder engagement, decision-making, and public awareness. This study presents a web-based framework developed to improve access to and use of flood-related information for risk and mitigation assessment. Built on HydroLang, the framework includes a modular analysis library for evaluating and communicating flood risks and mitigation options. It supports the acquisition and visualization of flood damage data and provides tools for exploring mitigation strategies across different flooding scenarios and vulnerable regions. The system is designed with scalability in mind, enabling use by a range of users, including municipal planners and system developers. We demonstrate the framework's application through case studies that highlight its integration capabilities and practical utility in flood risk management workflows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105735"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144772786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolving emotions: Tracing social media narratives in the wake of the Manchester Arena Bombing","authors":"Leydy Alejandra Castellanos ,&nbsp;Abla Edjossan-Sossou ,&nbsp;Nadejda Komendantova","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105722","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105722","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Individual's behavior and sentiment in online environments have become increasingly reactive to disaster events. Monitoring and analyzing these behaviors and sentiments in the context of manmade disasters provides valuable insights for crisis management professionals. These analytical processes help develop a comprehensive understanding of evolving situations, support effective response strategies, and contribute to societal stability. Employing appropriate methodologies and tools enables the capture and tracking of semantic shifts in social media communications, offering a means to observe their evolution over time.</div><div>In this study, we present research conducted on the Manchester Arena Bombing incident in the United Kingdom, which occurred on May 22, 2017, focusing on leveraging data from Twitter (now X). Using Orange, a text-mining analysis software, we explored key discussion topics and their dynamics from messages published immediately after the incident up to a week and a month later. The results demonstrate the evolution of emotional expressions in citizens’ messages during each disaster phase analyzed, including the prevalence of negative and positive sentiments during the recovery phase.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105722"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}