International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Effects of wire rope isolators on seismic life-cycle cost of UHV bypass switch","authors":"Chang He ,&nbsp;Kunning He ,&nbsp;Liqiang Jiang ,&nbsp;Qiang Xie ,&nbsp;Zhenyu Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The seismic isolation devices reduce the seismic vulnerability of the electrical equipment. Accurately assessing the seismic life-cycle cost (SLCC) of the electrical equipment is beneficial in guiding the design and enhancing the seismic resilience of electrical substations and converter stations. To evaluate the effects of the isolator devices on the seismic life-cycle cost of electrical equipment, a SLCC evaluation model was proposed in this study, and the evaluation was conducted on an ultra-high voltage (UHV) bypass switch (BPS) with wire rope isolators (WRI). The model takes into account equipment purchase, maintenance, transportation and installation costs and indirect losses caused by power outages. Afterward, the SLCC and break-even time of the UHV BPS with and without WRIs in different regions were analyzed. The results indicate that beyond the break-even time, the BPS with WRIs becomes more economically viable. Moreover, its economic viability increases as the service life extends. Therefore, in high seismic cost risk areas, it is recommended to adopt seismic isolation devices to ensure the secure and economically efficient operation of electrical equipment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104917"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines based on a coupled weighted Bayesian network","authors":"Jing Zhang ,&nbsp;Haiyong Cheng ,&nbsp;Shunchuan Wu ,&nbsp;Guanghua Wu ,&nbsp;Rujun Tuo ,&nbsp;Weihua Liu ,&nbsp;Xinglong Feng ,&nbsp;Zhengrong Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mines mined by the natural caving method are prone to underground debris flow disasters, resulting in mud gushing blocking roadways, equipment damage and even casualties, which seriously affect the safe operation of mines. To carry out a risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines, quantify the interactions among risk factors in the process of disasters, and identify the main disaster-causing paths, DEMATEL-ISM was used to analyze 18 risk factors related to material sources, geology, water sources and processes. A multilevel network structure model was constructed, and the model was mapped to a Bayesian network (BN). Based on the N-K model, the degree of risk coupling was calculated, the nodes in the BN were coupled and weighted, and diagnostic reasoning for underground debris flows was realized based on posterior probability. The results showed that the risk of debris flow increases with increasing coupling factor. The factors of water source, geology and ore drawing ranked at the top in terms of the probability change rate of the BN nodes, and a main disaster-causing path was obtained by diagnostic reasoning, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of underground debris flow prevention and control measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104922"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A methodology for assessing multiple hazards applied to Sweden","authors":"Johan Björck ,&nbsp;Margaret McNamee ,&nbsp;Jonathan Wahlqvist ,&nbsp;Magnus Larson ,&nbsp;Fainaz Inamdeen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive efforts through various international initiatives to reduce global warming, it has been determined that human induced climate change is here, that the present scale of disruption of the climate is unprecedented and will continue. Increasing weather volatility can be expected, which will most likely increase exposure to weather related hazards, e.g. wildfires, flooding. The aim of this paper is to present an index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method to assess wildfires and flooding hazard for two municipalities within Sweden. The method is designed to be used by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) for planning purposes and can be modified to take the local FRS's capabilities and local conditions into account, thereby improving hazard preparedness at a local level. The analysis presented indicates that, while the frequency of multi-hazard overlap from wildfires and flooding is greatest in more northern parts of Sweden, the method provides important information even when applied to areas with limited overlap. A variation of the hazard assessment using a box kernel sliding window was studied to investigate the sensitivity of the model for rapid variations of an individual hazard level. Given that resource needs will typically spread over several days for large scale natural hazards, the box kernel approach is valuable in helping to identify a span of days when resources associated with incident response might be needed. In the future, the model should be expanded to include additional single hazards, the application to additional municipalities and extension to FRS planning exercises for natural hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104934"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Post-disaster housing recovery estimation: Data and lessons learned from the 2017 Tubbs and 2018 Camp Fires","authors":"Jeonghyun Lee ,&nbsp;Rodrigo Costa ,&nbsp;Jack W. Baker","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Post-wildfire housing recovery is a complex process for which systematically collected data remains scarce. Consequently, our ability to anticipate obstacles and plan for housing recovery from future events is limited. This study leverages housing permit datasets collected in Santa Rosa and Unincorporated Sonoma County, impacted by the 2017 Tubbs Fire, and Paradise, impacted by the 2018 Camp Fire. Permit and tax assessor data are combined to gain insights into the recovery processes for these communities. Although the percentage of rebuilt destroyed homes varies significantly between regions, the peak construction demand occurs around 1.5 years after each wildfire, with a substantial decline in the reconstruction rate after 2.5 years. Moreover, the pace of transition from permit application to reconstruction completion is similar across all three regions. Using this finding, we propose a methodology to forecast the number of parcels rebuilt per unit of time based on observations from prior events. A proof-of-concept application of the proposed methodology indicates that it estimates long-term housing recovery patterns based on permit application data collected within one year of the event. These findings indicate that a longitudinal housing recovery data database would help forecast housing recovery from future disasters by providing a source for early empirical validation of predictive models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104912"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of drought and climate change on economy, environment and human health in southern Iran: A qualitative study","authors":"Neda Malek Mohammadi ,&nbsp;Narges Khanjani ,&nbsp;Bahram Bakhtiari ,&nbsp;Yunes Jahani","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drought and climate change are one of the most important environmental health challenges of the current century. It has been predicted that the occurrence of drought, its intensity, and its adverse effects on the environment, human health, societies, and economy will increase in the coming decades. This qualitative content analysis study aimed to explore the impact of drought on the lives of people living in the south of Iran. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews with farmers, urban and rural officials, and physicians. A total of 25 interviews were conducted. All interviews were recorded and then transcribed. Data were analyzed using MAXQDA version 18. The concepts raised by interviewees regarding the consequences of drought were categorized into four themes, including economic consequences, environmental hazards, health consequences, and adaptation options; and most of these consequences were inter-related. Participants believed that drought has affected the soil, environment, ecosystem, and the quality and quantity of water, and this can lead to extensive effects on humans’ physical, mental, and community wellbeing. Drought can also cause adverse economic effects, which can further intensify its adverse effects. It seems like the adverse effects of drought in Iran are severe and destructive, and this is due to the mismanagement of water and environmental resources and other socio-economic problems. Fundamental changes in the management of water and environmental resources are necessary.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104937"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to Natech accident triggered by earthquakes in a liquor storage tank area","authors":"Tianming Ma ,&nbsp;Jiajun Zou ,&nbsp;Yuan He ,&nbsp;Hong Zhao ,&nbsp;Yanyu Chu ,&nbsp;Dongyao Zhang ,&nbsp;Chuyuan Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Damage to industrial equipment caused by earthquakes is a typical Natech accident. Earthquake damage may cause tank failures and trigger accidental releases of hazardous substances, even a series of fires and explosions, forming a natural hazard-induced domino chain (NHDC), which poses a serious threat to the processing industry. In this study, a whole-process quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology for earthquake-induced domino accident chains is proposed. In the framework of QRA, specific probit models are used to quantify the damage of earthquakes and to assess the probability of storage tank failure. Besides, pool fires following the leakage of the failed tanks were considered to be the consequence of the earthquake Natech accident. The Mudan thermal radiation model and the threshold model were used to identify the propagation paths of domino effects. Case studies were carried out to investigate the dynamic evolution of fire-related domino effects in different credible accident scenarios, including multiple initial accidents co-occurring. The results show that the combination of multiple initial accident scenarios takes less time to complete domino effect escalation of the overall scenario than a single initial accident scenario and will significantly increase the regional risk indices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104957"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing and mitigating dwelling collapse risk due to extreme precipitation: A comprehensive study using CNN-RF and GeoDetector","authors":"Yinan Wang ,&nbsp;Juan Nie ,&nbsp;Zhenxiang Xing ,&nbsp;Zhenbo Wang ,&nbsp;Chengdong Xu ,&nbsp;Heng Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dragon boat rain, the most common extreme precipitation form in South China from May to June with more similar spatial distribution, caused serious loss of people's lives and property. The dwelling collapse is one of the main losses. Previous studies have paid little attention to the dwelling collapse risk caused by dragon boat rain (DCRDBR), the coupling model with CNN and RF applied to its assessment, and the influence of the precipitation process and interaction of natural and social factors on it. To fill these gaps, the CNN-RF was used to calculate the DCRDBR and the DCRDBR map was drawn. The Geodetctor was used to identify the main influencing factors and influencing factor interactions of DCRDBR, due to the spatial stratified heterogeneity of DCRDBR and the ability to obtain the determinant power of single factor and factor interaction. The results show that the F1 score and the AUC value of CNN-RF are 0.96 and 0.81, respectively. The spatial distribution of DCRDBR obtained by CNN-RF is high in the northeast and low in the southwest Guangdong Province. The total precipitation has the strongest determinant power (q = 0.54) followed by Slope (q = 0.52). The average determinant power of factors describing the precipitation process is 0.25. The combination of total precipitation and GDP/capita has the strongest determinant power of all combinations of natural and socio-economic factors (q = 0.72) followed by the total precipitation and ratio of urban population (q = 0.71). This study demonstrates the ability of CNN-RF applied to the DCRDBR assessment due to the integration of feature extraction and anti-overfitting ability, and identifies the influence of precipitation processes and the interaction of natural and socio-economic factors on the DCRDBR. It provides a solid scientific basis for crafting strategies to mitigate the impact of dragon boat rain and is conducive to the city's sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104918"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling myths: Assessing beliefs in disaster management misconceptions among first responders and the general public","authors":"A. Alkalai Tavori ,&nbsp;B. Adini","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Though studies of various global disasters highlighted predictable human behavior, a gap is noted between common perceptions, including those of professionals, and actual responses. Misconceptions are widespread and negatively impact disaster response. First responders play a crucial role in disaster management, and their decisions are influenced by their assessment of public behavior during disasters. Therefore, understanding prevalent beliefs among first responders is of great importance.</div><div>The aim of the study was to examine the extent of misconceptions among first responders and the public regarding behavior during disasters. The cross-sectional study was conducted using a structured quantitative questionnaire that included 25 statements, of which 19 were misconceptions. Respondents included &gt;500 first responders (police officers, emergency medical services’ providers, and firefighters) and individuals from the public.</div><div>The findings showed that first responders believe in some misconceptions to a greater extent than the general public, such as their belief that panic, mass evacuation, and public disorder are characteristic behaviors during disasters.</div><div>As first responders are required to demonstrate expertise in predicting human behavior during disasters, the findings demonstrate a substantial gap in their knowledge and beliefs. The research underscores the need for developing mechanisms to reduce misconceptions and enhance skills in disaster management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104965"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coastal infrastructure typology and people's preference-based grey-green-hybrid infrastructure classifications using a latent class model: A case study of Japan","authors":"Yui Omori ,&nbsp;Koichi Kuriyama ,&nbsp;Takahiro Tsuge ,&nbsp;Ayumi Onuma ,&nbsp;Yasushi Shoji","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Following the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, multiple lines of defence applying various approaches to structural/non-structural coastal defence has gained momentum. These changes have led to accelerate the development of hybrid infrastructure, which combines artificial and natural features, to provide essential defense functions while also harnessing the benefits of ecosystem services, including recreation and biodiversity conservation in Japan. However, the higher the number of services and stakeholder groups targeted, the lower is the capacity to maximise the delivery of each service and simultaneously fulfil the specific needs of each stakeholder group. This study conducted an online survey across Japan and obtained 861 valid responses for the analysis, elucidating the optimal balance between artificial and natural feature using a latent class model. Additionally, we examined whether the anticipated risk of the Nankai Trough earthquake and tsunami influenced perceptions of coastal infrastructure. The results showed that 81.7 % of our respondents favoured hybrid infrastructure, which can be classified into five distinct types with varying levels of grey and natural components. Furthermore, individuals who undertook personal tsunami preparedness measures, such as reviewing hazard maps and participating in evacuation drills, were more inclined to prefer hybrid infrastructure. In contrast, those who were less prepared for tsunamis or took no action tended to lean towards the exclusive installation of either grey or natural infrastructure. There was no statistically significant difference in Nankai Trough tsunami-prone area in preferable coastal infrastructure types; however, it highlighted the potential needs and importance for hybrid infrastructure to be multi-objective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104992"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beliefs that predict support for needs-based disaster aid distribution","authors":"Shannon Callaham ,&nbsp;Andrea Mah ,&nbsp;Ezra Markowitz","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104967","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster aid distribution in the U.S. worsens social inequities. Public demand to incorporate needs or social vulnerability into disaster aid policy could lead to more equitable disaster recovery. In two studies (<em>N</em> = 664) we examined what predicts preferences for needs-based disaster aid (Study 1) and then tested whether we could increase support for this kind of policy (Study 2). In Study 1, we asked participants to rate disaster aid distribution policies and report on beliefs that previous research suggests would relate to policy preferences. Social Dominance Orientation and Conservatism predicted less support for needs-based aid. People who did not endorse common disaster myths (e.g., that crime rates increase after a disaster), and who saw climate change or wealth distribution as causes of disaster harm supported needs-based aid. In Study 2, we developed messages targeting these three beliefs and compared them to a control message. While our intervention did not influence support for needs-based aid, it did shift the targeted beliefs, which were again positively associated with support for needs-based aid. Findings from Study 2 also shed light on participants’ own reasoning behind their preferences, which may prove useful for policy design and framing as well. Our studies highlight beliefs and other factors that relate to preferences for different types of disaster aid and provide an entry point for future equity efforts in disaster recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104967"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}