International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第9页

Ground subsidence and disaster risk induced by groundwater overexploitation: A comprehensive assessment from arid oasis regions

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105328

Binbin Fan , Xuguo Shi , Geping Luo , Olaf Hellwich , Xiaofei Ma , Ming Shang , Yuangang Wang , Friday U. Ochege

{"title":"Ground subsidence and disaster risk induced by groundwater overexploitation: A comprehensive assessment from arid oasis regions","authors":"Binbin Fan , Xuguo Shi , Geping Luo , Olaf Hellwich , Xiaofei Ma , Ming Shang , Yuangang Wang , Friday U. Ochege","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105328","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105328","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water resources in arid regions are limited, with socio-economic development largely dependent on groundwater extraction, particularly in irrigated oases. Excessive groundwater use can lead to aquifer depletion and land subsidence, yet the mechanisms linking subsidence to groundwater changes across different hydrological units remain inadequately understood. This study investigates the spatiotemporal deformation characteristics in the Sangong River Watershed, China, using InSAR data from 2004 to 2021. The results indicate that subsidence primarily occurs in the upper alluvial plain oases, exhibiting cyclic patterns that correspond with agricultural activities. Subsidence has intensified in recent years, with more severe impacts observed between 2014 and 2021 compared to 2004 to 2010. Regression coefficients between groundwater levels and subsidence vary significantly, influenced by the transition from a single-layered phreatic aquifer to a multilayered phreatic-confined aquifer system. Field investigations at Liuyuhu Farm and Binghu Reservoir highlighted severe infrastructure damage caused by seasonal and differential subsidence. Overexploitation of groundwater before 2006 initiated subsidence, which worsened as cropland expanded by 32.6 % and groundwater extraction increased by 353 % from 2006 to 2014. Although government interventions from 2015 to 2021 reduced extraction rates, drought conditions from 2019 to 2021 exacerbated subsidence, resulting in a cumulative deformation volume of 5.1 × 10<sup>7</sup> m<sup>3</sup> by 2021. The findings underscore the inadequacy of current water resources to meet agricultural demands, leading to continued extraction from static groundwater reserves, which intensifies surface subsidence. This situation necessitates urgent and more effective groundwater management strategies to mitigate further ground subsidence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105328"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Neglecting property-level food risk adaptation measures lead to overestimation in flood risk analysis – An empirical study

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105326

Nele Rindsfüser , Markus Mosimann , Sibilla Ernst , Margreth Keiler , Andreas Paul Zischg

{"title":"Neglecting property-level food risk adaptation measures lead to overestimation in flood risk analysis – An empirical study","authors":"Nele Rindsfüser , Markus Mosimann , Sibilla Ernst , Margreth Keiler , Andreas Paul Zischg","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105326","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105326","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Combining structural and non-structural mitigation measures is a strategy for managing flood risk. Besides structural flood alleviation schemes and land-use planning, property-level flood risk adaptation (PLFRA) measures are complementary measures for effective flood risk management. However, quantitative knowledge about the implementation and damage-reducing effects on building structure of PLFRA measures is scarce. Accordingly, the mitigation of vulnerability is rarely considered in flood risk assessment. Here, we collect data on PLFRA measures through a field survey, present a method for incorporating PLFRA into flood risk analysis, and conduct an analysis of their damage-reducing effects. With this approach, flood risk analysis is based on known object-specific vulnerability, rather than on assumptions on overall risk reduction by PLFRA measures. The results show that 16 % of the buildings are protected through PLFRA measures, and the expected annual damage (EAD) is reduced by around 18 %. On average, the PLFRA measures protect the respective houses against flood damage up to a flow depth of 0.6m. Further, 17 % of the buildings had a level of protection that could not be attributed to explicit PLFRA measures but was still considered effective. The average protection level of all buildings is up to 0.3m, and the EAD is reduced by around 23 %. If all buildings in the hazard zones were protected by PLFRA measures with a protection level of 0.5m, the EAD could be reduced by 50 %. The results presented provide robust evidence that neglecting PLFRA measures in flood risk analysis leads to an overestimation of flood risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105326"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143473898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pre-disaster flood prevention funds allocation and benefit analysis considering social vulnerability to enhance urban sustainable flood resilience

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105324

Jiahao Zhong , Yanmei Yang , Zegen Wang , Junnan Xiong , Yinxiang Xu , Jingtao Hao , Yongkang Ma , Gaoyun Shen , Zhiwei Yong

{"title":"Pre-disaster flood prevention funds allocation and benefit analysis considering social vulnerability to enhance urban sustainable flood resilience","authors":"Jiahao Zhong , Yanmei Yang , Zegen Wang , Junnan Xiong , Yinxiang Xu , Jingtao Hao , Yongkang Ma , Gaoyun Shen , Zhiwei Yong","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105324","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105324","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of global climate change and rapid urbanization, floods are increasingly frequent and intense, and the scientific allocation of pre-disaster flood prevention funds is essential for enhancing cities' preparedness for sustained flood protection. However, existing studies often overlook urban social vulnerability in allocating funds for pre-disaster flood prevention and quantitatively analyze the benefits of the allocated flood prevention funds. To solve this problem, relevant indicators like socioeconomic factors, infrastructure, and environmental conditions were used to assess social vulnerability (SoVi). Based on the assessment results, a Disaster Prevention Funding Allocation Model based on Social Vulnerability Assessment (SO-FAOM) was constructed, which aims to reduce the overall social vulnerability index and the number of extremely vulnerable areas. In this model, Geodetector was used to establish a hierarchical quantification mechanism for benefit coefficients across different levels of priority support, and NSGA-II and TOPSIS were employed to solve for the optimal allocation. Applied it to Wenzhou City to obtain the optimal allocation of funds and quantitatively analyze the benefits generated by the funds. Additionally, with the same total investment, the benefits of the Flash Flood Intensity Scheme (FFIS) and SO-FAOM allocation results were compared. FFIS reduced the total SoVi by 4.2 % and the number of extreme SoVi zones by 35.5 %, while SO-FAOM achieved reductions of 5.8 % and 57.0 %, respectively. Results showed that the scientific allocation of flood prevention funds by incorporating socioeconomic factors pre-disaster could help maximize the effectiveness of the use of funds and improve the city's ability to sustain flood protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105324"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143464878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Challenges and opportunities in Nepal's early warning communication

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105318

Dinanath Bhandari

{"title":"Challenges and opportunities in Nepal's early warning communication","authors":"Dinanath Bhandari","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nepal is exposed to various hazards year-round, particularly those related to hydro-meteorological factors, which can lead to disasters. Recently, advancements in communication technology have enhanced the ability to predict these hazards, allowing for timely preventive measures before disasters occur. An effective communication system is essential for any early warning system. This system should include institutional arrangements, technologies, media, and a mechanism to mobilize human resources to relay messages to various audiences, especially communities at risk.</div><div>This study utilized a mixed-methods approach, incorporating participatory assessment techniques to gather and analyse data from multiple sources, including literature reviews, key informant interviews, group discussions, and field observations.</div><div>The study found that Nepal's current institutional mechanisms for early warning systems related to floods and landslides have significant gaps and ambiguities in the roles and responsibilities of agencies at all three levels of government, as well as among various sectoral agencies. Additionally, the creation and distribution of early warning messages often fail to take into account important factors such as the choice of media, message format, language, and accessibility for particularly vulnerable groups. As a result, these messages frequently do not prompt the necessary actions to save lives and protect assets.</div><div>The paper recommends strengthening communication mechanisms at the national, local government, and community levels. Communication should involve a variety of audio, visual, text, and other messaging forms using appropriate media, including radio, television, phone calls, news portals, social media, and face-to-face interactions. This diverse approach will help ensure that everyone receives messages promptly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105318"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143465055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The adaptive shift: Embracing complexity in disaster and emergency management

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105323

Todd Miller, Loic Le Dé, Katherine Hore

{"title":"The adaptive shift: Embracing complexity in disaster and emergency management","authors":"Todd Miller, Loic Le Dé, Katherine Hore","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105323","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105323","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster and Emergency Management (DEM) systems are increasingly challenged by the complexity and interconnectedness of today's DEM environment. While rigid, phased-based approaches to DEM provide valuable structural frameworks, they often fail in addressing the dynamic, non-linear, and unpredictable nature of contemporary disasters. This paper critically examines key challenges in DEM, including non-linearity, complexity, and the coordination of diverse actors and organisations. It advocates for a shift towards adaptive, interconnected systems that better align with the realities of complex disasters. To this end, the paper introduces the Complex Adaptive DEM (CADEM) Framework, a new conceptual framework grounded in Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory. This framework emphasises decentralised decision-making, interorganisational collaboration, and emergent behaviours as mechanisms to enhance the adaptability and resilience of DEM systems. By reframing DEM as a networked and adaptive system, CADEM provides a pathway for navigating the multifaceted challenges of contemporary disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105323"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate change has increased rainfall-induced landslide damages in central China

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105320

Zhice Fang , Adriano Barasal Morales , Yi Wang , Luigi Lombardo

{"title":"Climate change has increased rainfall-induced landslide damages in central China","authors":"Zhice Fang , Adriano Barasal Morales , Yi Wang , Luigi Lombardo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming exacerbates the frequency of extreme precipitation events and inevitably increases the risk of hydrogeological disasters such as landslides. Understanding the impact of climatic drivers, particularly precipitation, of landslides and the resulting damages is crucial for effective risk management and mitigation strategies. However, few researchers have turned to quantify the causal effects of precipitation anomalies on landslide damages. This study focuses on Jiangxi Province, China, over the period from 2011 to 2020, aiming to quantify the contribution of historical climate change to landslide damages using a panel regression framework with fixed effects. We quantify the impact of long-term and short-term precipitation on landslide damages considering geographical and seasonal differences based on satellite rainfall products. Our results show positive and significant effects of both long-term and short-term precipitation on landslide damages, with a unit anomaly increase corresponding to a 99.7 % increase in damages. Considering the income equality, landslide damages in rich counties show greater sensitivity to monthly precipitation anomaly compared to poor counties. Moreover, we find that climate change contributed to 32.8 % of the total landslide damages in Jiangxi Province over the past decade, amounting to 57 million CNY. Overall, we believe this work could provide quantitative information about the economic costs of climate change on landslides and facilitate related adaptation and resilience strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105320"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143479183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel multi-scenario mitigation model for rainstorm flood disasters

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105321

Lei Wen , Xiaoyi Miao , Ting Wang , Jinqi Wang , Jianhua Yang , Ronghua Liu , Meihong Ma

{"title":"A novel multi-scenario mitigation model for rainstorm flood disasters","authors":"Lei Wen , Xiaoyi Miao , Ting Wang , Jinqi Wang , Jianhua Yang , Ronghua Liu , Meihong Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105321","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105321","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming induces frequent heavy rain disasters, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses. Seeking for an effective flood disaster mitigation method is crucial for mitigating the impact of disasters. Therefore, this study focuses on Nanhai district, starting with an analysis of the key disaster-causing factors for floods. Then, the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) is employed to quantify the contribution rates of disaster-causing factors, and determine the risk levels of the disaster. On this basis, a GBDT-based flood disaster mitigation model (GB-FDMM) is constructed by optimizing key disaster-causing thresholds. It then explores the changes in risk before and after the implementation of mitigation measures, thereby explaining the effectiveness of the FDMM under different heavy rainfall scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) the constructed GB-FDMM with threshold optimization method demonstrates an effective mitigation effect under extreme weather conditions. (2) the very-high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern region, and the GBDT algorithm can accurately evaluates the risk of flood disasters; (3) the main key disaster-causing factors are flood depth, submerge duration, population density, and GDP density. This study aims to provide valuable theoretical reference for enhancing the overall disaster reduction capacity in similar regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105321"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143465057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards optimal anticipatory action: Maximizing the effectiveness of agricultural early warning systems with operations research

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105249

Djavan De Clercq , Lily Xu , Marleen C. de Ruiter , Marc van den Homberg , Marijn van der Velde , Jim W. Hall , Jonas Jaegermyer , Adam Mahdi

{"title":"Towards optimal anticipatory action: Maximizing the effectiveness of agricultural early warning systems with operations research","authors":"Djavan De Clercq , Lily Xu , Marleen C. de Ruiter , Marc van den Homberg , Marijn van der Velde , Jim W. Hall , Jonas Jaegermyer , Adam Mahdi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores how optimization can enhance anticipatory action by improving resource allocation in response to agricultural risks such as droughts and floods. Anticipatory action relies on early warning systems, which monitor, forecast, and communicate risks to trigger preemptive measures like cash transfers and resource distribution. However, translating forecasts into effective actions often relies on predefined thresholds that may not account for varying needs or constraints. Optimization methods, which use mathematical models and data-driven techniques, offer a structured approach to make these responses more targeted and equitable. To illustrate this, we first outline the agricultural risks posed by climate crises and the role of early warning systems and anticipatory action in mitigating them. We then introduce concepts from operations research and demonstrate how these methods can enhance anticipatory action, using examples such as distributing drought-tolerant seeds and tailoring cash transfers. Finally, we propose research directions to explore how optimization can be best applied to improve the outcomes of anticipatory action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105249"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integration of effective antecedent rainfall to improve the performance of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Wanzhou District, China

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105317

Xin Liang , Samuele Segoni , Wen Fan , Kunlong Yin , Longsheng Deng , Ting Xiao , Francesco Barbadori , Nicola Casagli

{"title":"Integration of effective antecedent rainfall to improve the performance of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Wanzhou District, China","authors":"Xin Liang , Samuele Segoni , Wen Fan , Kunlong Yin , Longsheng Deng , Ting Xiao , Francesco Barbadori , Nicola Casagli","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical rainfall thresholds are widely utilized in landslide early warning systems (LEWS) at different scales. However, the approach ignores complex hydrological processes that predispose slopes to instability, leading to a relatively lower performance with high false alarm rates. The objective of this study is to address this limitation by proposing an updated 3D rainfall threshold approach that combines an assessment of the peak rainfall intensity with the contribution of antecedent rainfall conditions. While the former is obtained with a traditional intensity–duration (<em>I</em>–<em>D</em>) threshold approach, the latter is based on a purposely developed effective antecedent rainfall index (<em>EARI</em>), representing the most proximate regional soil moisture condition related to landslides. Thus, thresholds evolved from lines in the 2D space to planes in the 3D space, which were customized for 11 alert zones in Wanzhou District, China. The results highlight that the participation of <em>EARI</em> operates a consistent decrease in false alarms (ranging from 3.5 % to 94.8 % compared to the <em>I</em>-<em>D</em> approach). Beyond that, the power exponent decay <em>EARI</em> is more reliable than a simple sum-based antecedent rainfall in correctly identifying landslide conditions, resulting in higher performances up to 52.3 % if an operational application is simulated. The updated 3D threshold can be considered a good prototype for developing a LEWS because it evaluates both triggering rainfall and antecedent hydrological conditions with good performance and robustness. The general framework of the model could also be exported to other places, given the relatively simple structure and the wide availability of the input data needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105317"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143479182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of the social impact of meteorological drought on Peninsular Malaysia based on the integration of precipitation satellites and sentiment analysis

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105314

Husniyah Binti Mahmud , Takahiro Osawa

{"title":"Analysis of the social impact of meteorological drought on Peninsular Malaysia based on the integration of precipitation satellites and sentiment analysis","authors":"Husniyah Binti Mahmud , Takahiro Osawa","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integration of satellite data observations with other data sources and analytical tools, such as news media and machine learning algorithms, will enhance the utilization of satellite information capabilities. This study validates 38 rain gauges with the 23 years merging satellite Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43V7 (year 2000–2014) data and its successor Global Precipitation Measuring Mission (GPM) 3IMERG (year 2015–2022) Final (Version 6) data to monitor dry conditions in Peninsular Malaysia using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Seven English online news articles were used to collect 4086 label training headlines related to drought keywords. This study compares the performance of the text sentiment analysis model Naïve Bayes, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The evaluation of TRMM-3B43V7 and GPM-3IMERG showed a significantly high correlation (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.873) and is a reliable source for providing a combined long-term precipitation record and drought study in Peninsular Malaysia. The results of sentiment analysis using the LSTM method showed a high accuracy of 0.804, whereas the training duration was significantly lower than that of the other models. Finally, the trained LSTM model was used to predict the sentiment on a separate headline input dataset and to compare the expected sentiment result with drought-affected areas from the satellite SPI-12 timescale outputs. During drought or non-drought events, water remains a significant problem in most economic growth contributor states, such as Selangor and Penang. Therefore, sustainable water management must be implemented to improve socioeconomic development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105314"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0