International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第9页

Graphical representation of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty to enable better policy making in hydrological disaster management 气候变化影响和相关不确定性的图形表示，以便在水文灾害管理中更好地制定政策

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105449

Jose George , P. Athira

{"title":"Graphical representation of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty to enable better policy making in hydrological disaster management","authors":"Jose George , P. Athira","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105449","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105449","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effects of climate change are felt differently on regional scales, necessitating region specific analysis. Prediction of climate change and its impacts is riddled with uncertainties, which is exacerbated when moving to finer scale analysis. Climate change impact predictions on regional scales, when used for policy making or in design procedure should consider the uncertainty in the projected result. Ignoring the uncertainty can lead to poor policy decisions and inadequate structures. A major limitation in combining uncertainties in policy action is in how the uncertainty is communicated by the scientific community to policy makers and stakeholders. Simple graphical approaches have been found to be effective in communicating research outcomes to the public. The present study proposes a graphical approach for reporting regional scale climate change impacts and their associated uncertainty from an ensemble projection of regional extreme events. The concept of risk, which combines the information of event magnitude, frequency and regional vulnerabilities, is used to convey the impacts of extreme events over a catchment. The risk is defined as an index to facilitate comparison between different magnitude events, across different time periods, and across multiple scenarios. The uncertainty is represented as the range of risk predicted for each event and a level of confidence is developed based on the ensemble prediction. The projected risks of multiple extreme events are plotted in comparison with calculated risk of historical events that occurred in the region, to enable a policy maker to relate the index with actual consequences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"122 ","pages":"Article 105449"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143758870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probability mapping of debris flows triggered by multiple mechanisms in the Himalayas 喜马拉雅地区多种机制引发的泥石流的概率图

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105444

Bin Zhou , Qiang Zou , Hu Jiang , Tao Yang , Wentao Zhou , Siyu Chen , Zihao Zeng

{"title":"Probability mapping of debris flows triggered by multiple mechanisms in the Himalayas","authors":"Bin Zhou , Qiang Zou , Hu Jiang , Tao Yang , Wentao Zhou , Siyu Chen , Zihao Zeng","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105444","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105444","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Debris flows pose a significant hazard in the Himalayas due to the region's diverse climatic conditions and complex topography. However, previous studies have predominantly focused on individual debris flow types, often neglecting the multi-triggering mechanisms that influence their occurrence. This limitation has reduced the accuracy of probability assessments and hindered the development of effective risk management strategies for vulnerable areas. To address this gap, we developed an indicator system that incorporates multi-triggering mechanisms and applied three hybrid machine learning models to comprehensively assess debris flow probability. These models generated probability maps for Rainfall-Triggered Debris Flow (RTDF), Glacier Debris Flow (GDF), Glacial Lake Outburst Debris Flow (GLODF), and multi-type debris flows. The results indicate that high RTDF probability is concentrated in the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, the Indus River Valley, and the southern slope. High GDF probability is primarily located in the Western Himalayas, while high GLODF probability is predominantly distributed along the Central and Eastern Himalayan ridge. Notably, 52.98 % of catchments are vulnerable to at least one type of debris flow, with 2.04 % at risk from all three types. This study addresses a critical gap in debris flow probability assessment by integrating multi-triggering mechanisms, offering valuable insights to improve risk management and enhance resilience strategies in the Himalayas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"122 ","pages":"Article 105444"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143769180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Disaster resilience analysis framework for lifeline networks: Integrating reliability, redundancy, and recoverability 生命线网络的灾难恢复分析框架：集成可靠性、冗余性和可恢复性

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105436

Taeyong Kim , Sang-ri Yi , Ji Hyeon Kim , Ji-Eun Byun

{"title":"Disaster resilience analysis framework for lifeline networks: Integrating reliability, redundancy, and recoverability","authors":"Taeyong Kim , Sang-ri Yi , Ji Hyeon Kim , Ji-Eun Byun","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105436","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105436","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resilience analysis aims to quantify the risk of a system and evaluate its ability to recover from a damaged state and restore functionality to its original condition. This study presents a framework for assessing the disaster resilience of lifeline networks, emphasizing both hazard resistance and post-hazard recovery capabilities. To quantitatively assess resilience performance, the framework introduces indices for three key criteria: reliability, redundancy, and recoverability. The reliability index reflects the structural performance of network components, the redundancy index captures the system-level functional capacity, and the recoverability index evaluates the ability to restore network functionality following disruption. The resilience triangle concept is used to define the redundancy and recoverability indices. Estimating these indices for various initial disruption scenarios enables the identification of the most vulnerable situations that influence the resilience of the system, thus aiding in the development of effective pre-hazard mitigation strategies. Additionally, scenario-specific performance curves, representing the recovery process through the redundancy and recoverability indices, support rapid and informed decision-making in the aftermath of a hazard. The proposed framework is demonstrated through case studies of electricity and transportation networks. This research contributes to improving the safety and functionality of critical infrastructure systems in the face of diverse disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"123 ","pages":"Article 105436"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143829441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing regional analysis of road infrastructure exposure to fault displacement hazard: A New Zealand case study 道路基础设施断层位移危害的区域分析：以新西兰为例

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105440

Joshua M. Daglish , Timothy Stahl , Andrew Howell , Liam Wotherspoon

{"title":"Advancing regional analysis of road infrastructure exposure to fault displacement hazard: A New Zealand case study","authors":"Joshua M. Daglish , Timothy Stahl , Andrew Howell , Liam Wotherspoon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105440","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105440","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We developed an approach to quantify road infrastructure exposure to fault displacement hazard (FDH) that adopts Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (FDHA) principles and addresses regional-scale challenges for emergency management and network planning. FDH results from ground deformation in surface-rupturing earthquakes and can damage nearby infrastructure. This study assesses New Zealand's road network exposure and vulnerability to FDH by generating displacement fields around faults based on historical earthquake data and physics-based models. Relative hazard is quantified as the product of 1D strain resolved along roads and normalised fault slip-rate, and was mapped at the regional scale. Vulnerability is assessed using geomorphon land class, or the road's position in the landscape, as a proxy for susceptibility to damage and repairability. Four areas emerged as potentially having higher risk: Wellington, the Eastern North Island, the West Coast, and the Upper South Island. We reviewed the local factors that influenced these measurements of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The Wellington Region is particularly vulnerable where roads intersect the Hutt Valley and Wairarapa Faults, and sections of State Highway 6 along the Alpine Fault in the West Coast are at heightened risk. This analysis underscores the need for regional approaches to fault displacement hazard and for targeted mitigation, such as fault avoidance, engineering solutions, and planning for rapid post-event repair. Our findings provide insights into horizontal infrastructure resilience planning for transport and other critical systems in seismically active areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"122 ","pages":"Article 105440"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analyzing common social and physical features of flash-flood vulnerability in urban areas 分析城市地区山洪易损性的共同社会和物理特征

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105437

Natalie Coleman, Allison Clarke, Miguel Esparza, Ali Mostafavi

{"title":"Analyzing common social and physical features of flash-flood vulnerability in urban areas","authors":"Natalie Coleman, Allison Clarke, Miguel Esparza, Ali Mostafavi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105437","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105437","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flash flooding events, with their intense and sudden nature, present unique challenges for disaster researchers and emergency planners. To quantify the extent to which areas impacted by flash flooding share similar social and physical features, the research uses community-scale open-source and crowdsourced data and k-means clustering. Crowdsourced data helps reveal the social and physical vulnerabilities of a community to flash flood impacts which could better inform decision-makers who must allocate limited resources, have a spatial understanding, and aim to reduce future effects of flash floods. The research evaluates the impacts of Tropical Storm Imelda on Houston Metropolitan and Hurricane Ida on New York City. It develops a combined flash flood impact index based on FEMA claims, 311 calls, and Waze traffic reports which is able to capture a combination of crowdsourced data for the societal impact of flash flooding. K-means clustering evaluates a community's socio-demographic, social capital, and physical features to the combined flood impact index. To ensure accessibility and replicability to different types of communities, our research uses publicly available datasets to understand how socio-demographic data, social capital, and physical connectivity and development affect flash flood resilience. The findings provide a framework to identify potential flood impacts using historic data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"122 ","pages":"Article 105437"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143815619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Legal and ethical considerations for demand-driven data collection and AI-based analysis in flood response 洪水响应中需求驱动的数据收集和基于人工智能的分析的法律和伦理考虑

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105441

Carolin Gilga , Christoph Hochwarter , Luisa Knoche , Sebastian Schmidt , Gudrun Ringler , Marc Wieland , Bernd Resch , Ben Wagner

引用次数: 0

Navigating destiny: A study of factors determining participation in artisanal fisheries insurance, level of risk and the dynamics of risk management 导航命运：决定参与手工渔业保险、风险水平和风险管理动态的因素研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105434

Christian Larbi Ayisi , Gifty Sienso , Kezia Baidoo , Cecilia Asemah

{"title":"Navigating destiny: A study of factors determining participation in artisanal fisheries insurance, level of risk and the dynamics of risk management","authors":"Christian Larbi Ayisi , Gifty Sienso , Kezia Baidoo , Cecilia Asemah","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the complexities of fisheries insurance within fishing communities, focusing on fishermen's awareness, participation factors, and risk management strategies. Conducted in six Ghanaian fishing communities between April 20 and July 25, 2024, the research collected primary data on socioeconomic characteristics, risk factors, and insurance participation using a structured questionnaire. A probit model was employed to analyze the factors influencing enrollment in fisheries insurance, while descriptive statistics summarized other findings. Results show that 56.16 % of fishermen rely on savings, while only .36 % depend on friends and family. About 24.64 % use contract fishing to manage risk, while 14.49 % take loans and 4.35 % sell fishing assets. Key determinants of insurance participation include age, fishing experience, storage facility access and overfishing. The study also assessed risk levels and documents that drowning and accidents pose the highest risk (mean: 1.268), followed by long working hours (1.123) and consecutive workdays (1.228). Equipment failure has the lowest risk (.565). In conclusion, access to information, training, and financial resources is essential to improve participation in fisheries insurance programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"123 ","pages":"Article 105434"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A conversational intelligent assistant for enhanced operational support in floodplain management with multimodal data 一个会话智能助手，用于增强洪泛区管理的多模式数据的操作支持

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105422

Vinay Pursnani , Yusuf Sermet , Ibrahim Demir

{"title":"A conversational intelligent assistant for enhanced operational support in floodplain management with multimodal data","authors":"Vinay Pursnani , Yusuf Sermet , Ibrahim Demir","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105422","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105422","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floodplain management is crucial for mitigating flood risks and enhancing community resilience, yet floodplain managers often face significant challenges, including the complexity of data analysis, regulatory compliance, and effective communication with diverse stakeholders. This study introduces Floodplain Manager AI, an innovative artificial intelligence (AI) based virtual assistant designed to support floodplain managers in their decision-making processes and operations. Utilizing advanced large language models and semantic search techniques, the AI Assistant provides accurate, location-specific guidance tailored to the unique regulatory environments of different states. It is capable of interpreting Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps through multimodal capabilities, allowing users to understand complex visual data and its implications for flood risk assessment. The AI Assistant also simplifies access to comprehensive floodplain management resources, enabling users to quickly find relevant information and streamline their workflows. Experimental evaluations demonstrated substantial improvements in accuracy and relevance of the AI Assistant's response, underscoring its effectiveness in addressing the specific needs of floodplain managers. By facilitating informed decision-making and promoting proactive measures, Floodplain Manager AI aims to enhance flood risk mitigation operations and support sustainable community development in the context of increasing flood events driven by climate change. Ultimately, this research highlights the transformative potential of AI technologies in improving floodplain management practices and fostering community resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"122 ","pages":"Article 105422"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Street-scale hydrodynamic estimation from social media videos: A systematic approach to urban floods data collection 来自社交媒体视频的街道尺度水动力估计：城市洪水数据收集的系统方法

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105419

Margherita Lombardo , Vincenzo Totaro , Francesco Chiaravalloti , Olga Petrucci

{"title":"Street-scale hydrodynamic estimation from social media videos: A systematic approach to urban floods data collection","authors":"Margherita Lombardo , Vincenzo Totaro , Francesco Chiaravalloti , Olga Petrucci","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105419","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An increasing number of evidence highlights how climate change and urbanization are contributing to exacerbate floods impacts. In this framework, flood modelling assumes a key role in supporting the analysis of floods dynamics, especially in urban areas. Recent advances in this topic enabled detailed street-level studies, offering significant potential for flood reconstruction, nowcasting, and forecasting. However, calibration and validation of hydrodynamic models face challenges due to limited availability of flood data. Recent studies highlighted the potential of social media as a valuable resource for urban flood analysis, yet significant challenges persist, particularly in leveraging videos data to retrieve floodwater characteristics, leading to the loss of a relevant amount of potentially useful information. In this paper, to tackle this issue, a five-step workflow for the systematic research and extraction of key hydrodynamic variables from flood-related videos uploaded on social media is proposed. The aim of this procedure is the retrieval of diffused and quality-controlled estimates of floodwater characteristics to support hydrodynamic modelling and dampening the gap due to the lack of field measurements. The workflow was tested to the flood occurred in 2020 in the city of Crotone (southern Italy). The results underscore the potential of the proposed procedure to provide detailed data for flood impact assessment, paving the way for improved street-level hydrodynamic studies and model validation. This approach not only could enhance the quality control of the dataset but also allows for the limitation of information loss, which is critical for supporting a broader distributed validation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"122 ","pages":"Article 105419"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing road network risk performance in the United States: A standardized spatial risk analysis 美国道路网络风险绩效评估：标准化空间风险分析

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105418

Daniel Rivera-Royero , Miguel Jaller

{"title":"Assessing road network risk performance in the United States: A standardized spatial risk analysis","authors":"Daniel Rivera-Royero , Miguel Jaller","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural hazards can disrupt road networks, daily activities, and disaster response capabilities, making identifying high-risk areas essential for effective preparedness and response planning. Although existing research addresses road network performance risks, it offers limited insights into spatial patterns, their impact on network functionality, and their implications for disaster operations management. This paper introduces a method to evaluate road network performance risk for various natural hazards at three levels: local (node-specific analysis), regional (risk clustering based on network directions), and global (using a Standardized Spatial Risk Index). The local level considers network topology, historical hazard data, and socio-economic characteristics of the population. The regional level groups local risks by geographic orientation, while the global level assesses the overall spatial distribution of risks across the network. The paper implements the method in the United States, leveraging FEMA's National Risk Index to analyze multiple cities in California and assess risks from 18 types of natural hazards. The results highlight whether an entire city or specific areas require attention, offering actionable insights to enhance resilience through improved mitigation, preparedness, and response strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"122 ","pages":"Article 105418"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143815618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0