International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

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The impact of educational and training programs on disaster awareness and preparedness among health sciences students: A quasi-experimental study 教育和培训计划对健康科学专业学生的灾难意识和防备能力的影响:准实验研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104888
Aziz Aslanoğlu , Nurcan Bilgiç , Amal A. Murad , Rami A. Elshatarat , Dana Anwer Abujaber , Eman Al Qasim , Najlaa A. Siddiq , Dena Eltabey Sobeh , Mudathir M. Eltayeb , Zyad T. Saleh
{"title":"The impact of educational and training programs on disaster awareness and preparedness among health sciences students: A quasi-experimental study","authors":"Aziz Aslanoğlu ,&nbsp;Nurcan Bilgiç ,&nbsp;Amal A. Murad ,&nbsp;Rami A. Elshatarat ,&nbsp;Dana Anwer Abujaber ,&nbsp;Eman Al Qasim ,&nbsp;Najlaa A. Siddiq ,&nbsp;Dena Eltabey Sobeh ,&nbsp;Mudathir M. Eltayeb ,&nbsp;Zyad T. Saleh","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104888","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104888","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster preparedness among health sciences students is critical but often insufficient. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a disaster awareness and impact reduction educational intervention in enhancing disaster preparedness. A quasi-experimental single-group pretest-posttest design was employed, with the intervention consisting of 16 h of education delivered over four weeks via a distance learning platform. The study involved 599 students from the faculties of health sciences, who were assessed at baseline and three months post-intervention. Results indicated that students’ baseline disaster preparedness levels were low, with no significant correlations found between demographic characteristics, previous disaster experiences, or prior disaster preparedness training and baseline preparedness levels. Repeated-measures Analysis of Variance confirmed a significant impact of the intervention after controlling for baseline preparedness levels. Significant improvements were observed post-intervention across all preparedness dimensions: disaster physical protection, disaster planning, disaster assistance, disaster warning systems, and total preparedness levels (p &lt; .001). The most substantial gains were noted among students with initially low preparedness levels. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating disaster preparedness education into health sciences curricula to better equip future healthcare professionals for effective disaster response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104888"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A systemic approach for assessing infrastructure component importance in hazard-prone communities 评估易受灾社区基础设施组成部分重要性的系统方法
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104880
C. Nicholson , M.H. Tehrani , A. Ghasemkhani
{"title":"A systemic approach for assessing infrastructure component importance in hazard-prone communities","authors":"C. Nicholson ,&nbsp;M.H. Tehrani ,&nbsp;A. Ghasemkhani","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104880","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investing in pre-event disaster mitigation interventions for physical infrastructure, such as structural retrofits and enhancements, can be costly due to limited resources. To prioritize investments, infrastructure components are ranked by their criticality within the overall system. To be effective in real-world deployment, this approach must account for the complex interactions between components, as failures can occur simultaneously across large geographical areas due to the hazard footprint. As a result, hazard-specific uncertainties and spatial correlations may lead to distinctive failure patterns. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven framework leveraging Monte Carlo simulation, that harnesses the individual realizations to capture and model realistic component damage patterns under a specified hazard scenario. This framework addresses a gap in literature by moving beyond traditional methods that often treat component failures as independent events. By capturing the interdependence between bridges, primarily through failure interactions, and system-wide effects, our method provides a more comprehensive criticality assessment. The simulation data provides a foundation for the framework, which applies to a wide variety of infrastructure networks and performance metrics. To demonstrate the method's effectiveness, a simplified transportation network from Shelby County, TN subjected to an earthquake event is analyzed. The proposed framework provides an effective approach for component ranking, suitable for decision-making where human intuition and simple methods are insufficient. Its broad applicability suggests a potential for large-scale and interdependent network problems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104880"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Developing a healthcare transformational leadership competency framework for disaster resilience and risk management 为抗灾和风险管理制定医疗保健转型领导能力框架
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104898
Heba Mohtady Ali , Jamie Ranse , Anne Roiko , Cheryl Desha
{"title":"Developing a healthcare transformational leadership competency framework for disaster resilience and risk management","authors":"Heba Mohtady Ali ,&nbsp;Jamie Ranse ,&nbsp;Anne Roiko ,&nbsp;Cheryl Desha","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104898","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104898","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change-induced hazards increasingly threaten healthcare systems worldwide, amplifying the frequency and severity of disasters and their adverse health effects. This necessitates fortified healthcare leadership and resilient systems capable of delivering quality care amidst escalating environmental challenges and emphasises the need for standardised competency frameworks to enhance disaster readiness and response. As healthcare organisations face evolving challenges, cultivating transformational leadership competencies becomes essential for building adaptive, resilient, and effective disaster management strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>of this study: This conceptual paper addresses the research question: \"How can healthcare leaders' competencies be developed to support healthcare disaster resilience?\".</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The study, conducted in 2023, used a narrative literature review, comparative analysis, and synthesis. It reviewed frameworks on transformational leadership and disaster resilience, employing comparative analysis to examine relationships and leadership competencies. A synthesized framework was developed to clarify dimensions and relationships.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Eight ‘domains’ of competencies were identified, in addition to other ‘transferring skills.’ The domains were analysed regarding their component competencies and were broadly classified into knowledge, cognitive and interpersonal skills, and attitudes. This classification is proposed as a ‘Healthcare Transformational Leadership Competency Framework’ (HTLCF) for disaster resilience and risk management.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The HTLCF supports leaders in navigating complexities, anticipating risks, and facilitating collaboration, communication, and accountability, leveraging their transformative agency. This study suggests the use of the Healthcare Transformational Leadership Competency Framework to develop a standardised disaster management curriculum and continuous, ongoing training. This would equip leaders to enhance resilience and ensure coordinated, effective disaster responses for healthcare systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104898"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disaster debris management and the Maine floods of December 2023 灾害废墟管理与 2023 年 12 月的缅因州洪水
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104911
Julia Crowley
{"title":"Disaster debris management and the Maine floods of December 2023","authors":"Julia Crowley","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104911","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104911","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A major disaster declaration was granted to designated areas in Maine for a severe flood that occurred in December of 2023. The purpose of this research is to examine the disaster debris management in the preparedness, response, and recovery phases of the flood. A purposive sample of emergency management personnel who worked with the debris management participated in structured interviews. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded with NVivo software. Through the two-step process of open and focused coding, four themes were identified. These include debris management planning, resource constraints, home rule, and concerns over more extreme weather events. In several instances, resource constraints inhibited debris management planning opportunities. This research recommends that partnerships be developed between state and local emergency management agencies and academics to assist with grant writing to address resource constraints. Furthermore, coalitions of stakeholders with diverse backgrounds in debris management should be formed to develop guidelines to tailor debris management plans to a given area's needs. The growth in extreme weather events emphasizes the urgency in developing such debris management planning projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104911"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integration of disaster risk reductionand climate change adaptation in Aceh: Progress and challenges after 20 Years of Indian Ocean Tsunamis 亚齐减少灾害风险与适应气候变化相结合:印度洋海啸 20 年后的进展与挑战
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104894
Sofyan Sufri , Jonatan Anderias Lassa
{"title":"Integration of disaster risk reductionand climate change adaptation in Aceh: Progress and challenges after 20 Years of Indian Ocean Tsunamis","authors":"Sofyan Sufri ,&nbsp;Jonatan Anderias Lassa","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) of 2004, which tragically claimed 168,000 lives and displaced about half a million people in the Aceh region of Indonesia, established Aceh's reputation as one of the most geologically volatile areas in Southeast Asia. Unfortunately, the 2004 IOT also altered some geomorphological changes, particularly land subsidence in the coastal areas of South, Southwest, and West Aceh, making these regions more susceptible to coastal floods and inundation over the last 20 years. The 2004 tsunamigenic earthquakes had been compounded by hydroclimatic hazards (and required to reduce risk beyond geological disasters) that continued to cause loss and damage, compromise communities' well-being, and reproduce vulnerabilities. This article examines the progress and challenges for integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) in Aceh, with a focus on the capital city, Banda Aceh using in-depth stakeholder interviews and document reviews. Anticipating gaps in meeting Sendai Framework 2030 target, as also observed elsewhere in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, the findings suggest various key challenges for the integration, including (1) fragmented DRR and CCA policies leading shaped the gap in coordination and collaboration among actors; (2) nurturing political commitment remains a challenge at local level; (3) lack of fiscal capacity and lack of earmarked allocation hampers the potential integration; (4) and deficits in community participation delayed adaptation and integration. The study offers recommendations for policy insights and consideration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104894"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multisource geoscience data-driven framework for subsidence risk assessment in urban area 多源地球科学数据驱动的城市地区沉降风险评估框架
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104901
Yaozu Qin , Li Cao , Shimin Li , Fawang Ye , Ali Darvishi Boloorani , Zhaoxi Liang , Jun Huang , Guofeng Liu
{"title":"Multisource geoscience data-driven framework for subsidence risk assessment in urban area","authors":"Yaozu Qin ,&nbsp;Li Cao ,&nbsp;Shimin Li ,&nbsp;Fawang Ye ,&nbsp;Ali Darvishi Boloorani ,&nbsp;Zhaoxi Liang ,&nbsp;Jun Huang ,&nbsp;Guofeng Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104901","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104901","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land subsidence, especially in developed cities, poses significant risks to human life, social property, and urban sustainability. Taking Liwan District in southern China as an example, this study proposed an acceptable framework for regional land subsidence risk assessment while complying with current national assessment system. With integrating the multi-source geospatial data from remote sensing and various geology surveys into ArcGIS, the subsidence risk assessment was carried out based on the subsidence susceptibility mapping, hazard and vulnerability surveying by using a series of data-driven methods. The results showed that, (<em>i</em>) although not all surface deformations detected by InSAR technology were caused by subsidence, they were instrumental in updating subsidence records; (<em>ii</em>) with the help of spatial correlation analysis using weight evidence as well as multi-source data fusion in high spatial resolution, the Random Forest-based classification models effectively identified the land use types and accurately mapped the land subsidence susceptibility; (<em>iii</em>) the hazard and vulnerability surveying based on a series of newly developed combined weight methods, improved the reliability of risk assessment; (<em>iv</em>) the extremely high- and high-risk areas from the zoning of the land subsidence, provided target areas for further management and prevention of land subsidence. This comprehensive and quantitative assessment framework highlights the need for continued monitoring in subsidence-prone regions, helping to propose strategies for risk mitigation and adaptive planning in urban areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104901"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An intervention study of adopting a health action model to improve the effectiveness of disaster prevention learning of preschool senior class students 采用健康行动模式提高学前教育高年级学生防灾学习效果的干预研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104872
Wei Hsiang Huang , Hui Ling Chen , Chieh Hsing Liu
{"title":"An intervention study of adopting a health action model to improve the effectiveness of disaster prevention learning of preschool senior class students","authors":"Wei Hsiang Huang ,&nbsp;Hui Ling Chen ,&nbsp;Chieh Hsing Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104872","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104872","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the effect of adopting the health action model (HAM) to improve disaster prevention learning among preschool senior class students. A quasi-experimental design with pre- and post-tests was used to track the extended effects. Convenient sampling selected 60 senior-class students from a private preschool in New Taipei City, divided into experimental and control groups. The HAM was incorporated into 5 earthquake prevention lessons. The effectiveness was assessed using a Checklist of Earthquake-Prevention Learning Effectiveness, analyzed by generalized estimating equations. Results showed significant positive effects of the intervention on earthquake-prevention knowledge (post-test: B = 0.41, p &lt; .001; follow-up test: B = 0.23, p = .001), attitudes (post-test: B = 0.91, p &lt; .001; follow-up test: B = 0.97, p &lt; .001), skills (post-test: B = 1.10, p &lt; .001; follow-up test: B = 1.09, p &lt; .001), intentions (post-test: B = 0.88, p &lt; .001; follow-up test: B = 0.85, p = .001), and behaviors (post-test: B = 0.71, p &lt; .001; follow-up test: B = 0.61, p &lt; .001), with effects lasting for at least 5 weeks. These findings suggest that the intervention significantly enhances earthquake-prevention knowledge, attitudes, skills, intentions, and behaviors, and can serve as a reference for designing preschool earthquake-prevention courses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104872"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Predictors of risk reduction behavior: Evidence in last-mile communities 减少风险行为的预测因素:最后一英里社区的证据
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104875
Rhomir S. Yanquiling
{"title":"Predictors of risk reduction behavior: Evidence in last-mile communities","authors":"Rhomir S. Yanquiling","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104875","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104875","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive research using Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to analyze factors influencing protective behaviors during disasters, understanding how last-mile communities in vulnerable contexts—particularly in the Philippines—respond to early warning messages remains limited. This understanding is crucial, as these communities often bear the brunt of extreme weather events. Drawing data from surveys and semi-structured interviews, this study examined the predictors of risk reduction behaviors before and after Super Typhoon Mangkhut in two last-mile communities in Northern Philippines — Cabalitian and Mapita. Regression analysis demonstrated that all threat appraisal variables—perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, and fear—are predictors of risk reduction behaviors before Mangkhut. Coping appraisal variables, specifically response efficacy and self-efficacy, also positively influenced risk reduction action before Mangkhut. Among socio-demographic variables, only gender and age are predictors of risk reduction behaviors, with their influence varying between the two communities. Expanding the application of PMT, prior typhoon experience, trust, and social network strength also positively and significantly influenced risk reduction behaviors before and after Mangkhut. The study identified key infrastructural, institutional, and operational interventions to enhance coping capacity and reduce vulnerability in these communities, alongside policy implications to inform disaster risk reduction strategies and empower local preparedness efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104875"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seismic performance and recovery of medical infrastructure in Mexico City related to the September 19, 1985 and 2017 earthquakes 墨西哥城医疗基础设施在 1985 年 9 月 19 日和 2017 年地震中的抗震性能和恢复情况
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104886
Arturo Tena-Colunga
{"title":"Seismic performance and recovery of medical infrastructure in Mexico City related to the September 19, 1985 and 2017 earthquakes","authors":"Arturo Tena-Colunga","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104886","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104886","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To date, the September 19, 1985 Michoacán (<em>M</em><sub><em>s</em></sub> = 8.1) and the September 19, 2017 Puebla-Morelos (<em>M</em><sub><em>w</em></sub> = 7.1) earthquakes have been the most devastating seismic events in Mexico City. During the 1985 earthquake, 13 important public hospital buildings collapsed or were demolished and 5800 hospital beds were lost. During the 2017 earthquake, 85 buildings of the medical sector were disturbed, two major public hospital were demolished and 1147 hospital beds were affected. In this paper, the author concentrates both in reviewing what occurred during the 1985 earthquake, and in reporting what it has been observed for the 2017 earthquake. From the structural viewpoint, the observed damage is discussed in relationships to: a) seismic codes, b) spectral demands, b) structural irregularities, c) soil settlements, d) tilting, e) structural pounding and, f) deterioration. The observed damaged inventory is also put into perspective with respect to the approximate number of medical facilities that are available in Mexico City. An instantaneous drop of seismic resilience for this sector is crudely assessed. Finally, the progress on the recovery process or adaptive resilience is discussed. Fortunately, most of the main hospitals in Mexico City were not severely damaged, and that it was why most of them and the hospital bed capacity in Mexico City previous to the 2017 earthquake was able to be recovered on time to attend the Covid-19 pandemic which affected Mexico since early 2020.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104886"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative risk assessment for overtopping of earth-fill dams in Japan using machine learning algorithms 利用机器学习算法对日本堆土坝翻坝进行定量风险评估
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104892
Shiying Zheng, Shin-ichi Nishimura, Toshifumi Shibata, Yimeng Chen
{"title":"Quantitative risk assessment for overtopping of earth-fill dams in Japan using machine learning algorithms","authors":"Shiying Zheng,&nbsp;Shin-ichi Nishimura,&nbsp;Toshifumi Shibata,&nbsp;Yimeng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104892","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104892","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Earth-fill dams serve as crucial agricultural structures in Japan and act as buffers against flooding. However, their failure often tends to cause even greater downstream damage. Consequently, there is an urgent need for a quantitative assessment of the risks to earth-fill dams posed by disasters. The current detailed method of assessment is complicated, labour-intensive, and costly; hence, constructing risk surrogate models will greatly reduce the workload. This study employs two machine learning methods, GPR (Gaussian Process Regression) and XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boost), to develop surrogate models for assessing the damage cost and overtopping probability for 70 earth-fill dams in Okayama and Hiroshima prefectures, Japan. The predictive performance of each model was quantified by comparing the results against those of the detailed method. From the results, XGBoost demonstrates superior performance compared to GPR based on the comparison of coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>) and root mean square error (RMSE). To clarify the extent to which the variables influence the XGBoost model, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm was implemented. It offers an efficient and interpretable avenue for earth-fill dam risk assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104892"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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