International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"An indicator-based GIS approach for assessing a community's vulnerability to mobility-related disruptions caused by floods","authors":"Shashini Sanjeewani Ranabahu ,&nbsp;J.H. Lowry ,&nbsp;Muhammad Imran","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Assessing vulnerability in the road transport sector has received extensive attention because of the increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as floods. Communities' vulnerability to mobility-related disruptions is an area that has received less attention in developing countries. Given the higher vulnerability in developing countries and their contextual differences, this study aims to fill this scholarly gap by examining how vulnerability changes spatially and what makes regions vulnerable through a multidimensional approach. This approach consists of several dimensions, including road infrastructure, user functional, and socio-demographic aspects, to assess the community's exposure and susceptibility to mobility disruptions, which are combined to determine overall vulnerability. This study spatially assesses vulnerability in the Western Province of Sri Lanka using weighted liner combination modelling and multivariate cluster analysis. This study found three main clusters with higher exposure close to the rivers in this Province as a key determinant of the spatial pattern of vulnerability. Further, this assessment demonstrated how the inclusion of susceptibility results in an observable difference in the overall spatial pattern of vulnerability. Using cluster analysis, this research especially highlights the practical importance of cluster-specific solutions derived based on the uniqueness of the vulnerability determinants in each cluster. The proposed method helps to develop place-based vulnerability and risk reduction strategies and emergency management interventions rather than implementing a centralised approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105342"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143562495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"‘HiFlo-DAT’: A flood hazard event-disaster database for the Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh, Indian Himalaya","authors":"Richard M. Johnson ,&nbsp;Bindhy Wasini Pandey ,&nbsp;Kesar Chand ,&nbsp;Ceri L. Davies ,&nbsp;Debra Edwards ,&nbsp;Esther Edwards ,&nbsp;James Jeffers ,&nbsp;Kieran King ,&nbsp;Jagdish Chandra Kuniyal ,&nbsp;Himanshu Mishra ,&nbsp;Victoria Phillips ,&nbsp;Nikhil Roy ,&nbsp;Jessica Seviour ,&nbsp;Dev Dutt Sharma ,&nbsp;Pushpanjali Sharma ,&nbsp;Harkanchan Singh ,&nbsp;Ram Babu Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105336","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105336","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>‘HiFlo-DAT’ (<strong>Hi</strong>malayan <strong>Flo</strong>od <strong>Dat</strong>abase) contributes to the disaster risk reduction (DRR) agenda of developing methodologies for the assembly, analysis, and application of disaggregated/sub-national disaster loss data; here for mountain floods in the Kullu District, Himachal Pradesh, India. The HiFlo-DAT architecture is aligned to international best practice/local needs. It uses English-language documents, principally newspapers and government reports (1835–2020), and comprises 128 flood events, at 59 locations, over 175 years (1846–2020). This open-access database brings a substantial improvement over existing compilations. Subject to the fidelity of historical event recording, analyses highlight temporal/process patterns inclusive of flood-rich periods (1890–1900s; 1990s-present: 68 % of events), increasing flood occurrence towards the present, the prevalence of rainfall causation (55 %), and the dominance of summer monsoon flooding (June–September: 87 %). Spatially, of the 59 locations recording floods, 76 % record a single event, 24 % have two or more events, and four tributaries record 8–14 events. Key flood impact receptors were roads (55 floods), bridges (54 floods and 94 impacts) and vulnerable labourer-migrant communities (70 % fatalities and 83 % affected) notably associated with construction projects in remote/exposed locations. Key opportunities for policy and practice development include transference of the HiFlo-DAT methodology across the wider Indian Himalayan Region and trans-boundary basins; multi-disciplinary approaches to corroborate and extend documentary-based databases; improved access to public archive materials; routine integration of historical flood data into DRR/climate change adaptation management planning and infrastructure development design; and deeper multi-agency partnership to record contemporary flood impacts to provide effective data for current/future DRR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105336"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143591437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Digital information and coordination system for disaster preparedness in Sri Lanka","authors":"Senuri Disara Siriwardhana,&nbsp;Udayangani Kulatunga","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105347","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105347","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective disaster preparedness is crucial for mitigating the impacts of natural disasters, especially in developing nations like Sri Lanka that are frequently affected by various disasters. This research focuses on enhancing the digital information and coordination systems for disaster preparedness through a detailed user requirement analysis. Employing qualitative methodologies, including interviews and a focus group discussion with key stakeholders, the study identifies critical features necessary for the development of an advanced digital system. The findings underscore the importance of real-time data integration, robust multi-level communication capabilities, and user-friendly interfaces to facilitate rapid and efficient disaster response and management. Significantly, the proposed digital enhancements are designed to address existing gaps in the coordination between disaster management agencies and the affected communities. These enhancements include the incorporation of automated risk assessments, streamlined evacuation procedures, and comprehensive resource databases that are accessible to both disaster response officials and the public. A key outcome of this research is the development of a comprehensive framework that integrates these digital enhancements to improve national disaster preparedness strategies. This framework not only facilitates better coordination and information dissemination but also encourages technological integration and fosters an environment conducive to digital innovation in disaster management. The study advocates for policy adjustments that prioritise the modernization of disaster preparedness systems as a strategic response to the increasing threat of natural disasters in Sri Lanka.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105347"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the concept of strategy as practice in national disaster risk reduction: The case of Botswana","authors":"Margaret Opelo Dennison,&nbsp;David Alastair Lindsay Coldwell","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study investigates how strategy implementation is done for national Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Botswana and what improvements can be made using the Strategy as Practice (SAP) lens. The extant literature rarely explores how DRR is done from firsthand experiences of those on the ground. This contrasts with conventional strategic management strategy in practice, that takes into consideration the process in which individual interactions and interpretations of organisational strategy influence the enactment of strategy on the ground. A qualitative case study approach was adopted, gathering data from staff implementing the DRR strategy at all three levels of the Botswana DRM institutional framework. Data was collected using semi structured interviews, focus groups and the nominal group technique.</div><div>Findings show that there is no formal DRM legislation in the country, meaning there are no legally required risk management systems in place. Due to this, DRR has historically been conducted without effective communication and coordination of DRR strategies and systems at national, district and village levels, as well as adequate technical, human and financial resources. The study recommends that a DRM legislation, sufficient training for DRR implementors, effective resource allocation as well as coordination and communication strategies and systems should be put in place to effectively mitigate disasters that the country may face in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105339"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Warned by the past: How Dutch media commemorate the 1953 North Sea Flood as a future climate catastrophe","authors":"Adriaan Duiveman,&nbsp;Lotte Jensen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105338","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105338","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The North Sea Flood of 1953 was the largest disaster to hit the Netherlands in the twentieth century. In 2023, 70 years after the catastrophe took place, Dutch media outlets commemorated the flood. Yet, their representations of the dreadful disaster were not only about the past; they also projected the catastrophe onto futures shaped by sea level rise and exacerbating weather conditions. This article analyses how Dutch journalists appropriated a historical disaster to tell stories about the current-day climate crisis and, meanwhile, “anchored” fearful futures in collective memory. The disaster in 1953 showed the havoc that such a flood could wreak again – a disaster journalists now present as a warning against future inaction in the face of rising risks. The lessons they drew from the disaster, however, differed substantially. Journalists embedded the catastrophe in broader historical water narratives that shape the current Dutch discourse on sea level rise. In doing so, some stressed technological optimism, while others emphasised that the Dutch should take a humbler stance towards the forces of nature. Using the same historical catastrophe, different journalists drew very different interpretations and hence conveyed diverse conclusions to their audiences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"120 ","pages":"Article 105338"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143551434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Socioeconomic vulnerability of urban flooding in the context of IPCC AR4 framework in Hyderabad, India","authors":"Chandra Prakash Morya ,&nbsp;Vikas Sehra ,&nbsp;Milap Punia","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growing number of natural hazards raises concerns about the increased vulnerability of the population in cities, particularly in the global south. Recently the Hyderabad city has faced severe loss of life and property from frequent flooding and other extreme events. The vulnerability assessment in this context becomes a key to planning and responding to urban floods. In the present research, the principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to evaluate the levels of the different indices viz exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and potential impact. Results identify that historically the lack of disaster preparedness along with the urban land development has amplified the vulnerabilities in the core and old part of the city. While the wards having better infrastructural development and access to urban services show low level of vulnerability. The poor urban infrastructural development amplifies the vulnerability while the enhanced adaptive capacity lowers the vulnerability of population. The discussion also highlights that urban flooding amplifies the existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities in the city and, women, non-workers and socio-economically marginalized groups are highly vulnerable. The strengthening of governance through mutual efforts of users and managers for urban land management can reduce the impacts of vulnerability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105334"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multiscale physically-based approach to urban flood risk assessment using ABM and multi-source remote sensing data","authors":"Xinyi Shu ,&nbsp;Chenlei Ye ,&nbsp;Zongxue Xu ,&nbsp;Ruting Liao ,&nbsp;Silong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105332","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105332","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;&lt;div&gt;In recent years, global climate change and rapid urban development have led to frequent urban pluvial flooding disasters, severely threatening urban safety and the lives and property of residents. Urban pluvial flooding involves both natural and social factors. Its risk is influenced not only by natural factors such as rainfall intensity and terrain but also closely related to human factors like population distribution and socio-economic development. However, existing risk assessment methods often overemphasize natural disaster factors while failing to adequately consider the dynamic response characteristics of social systems. These methods typically rely on static indicators and simplify the study area into homogeneous spaces, overlooking the differences in drainage systems and surface characteristics between regions. Therefore, incorporating the dynamic characteristics of population vulnerability into the risk assessment framework and developing models that reflect the coupling of natural and social systems are essential for accurately describing the evolution of urban pluvial flood risk and enhancing disaster prevention strategies. This study takes the main urban area of Jincheng City, Shanxi Province, as an example. Based on spatial heterogeneity, the area is divided into regions with dense and sparse drainage networks. A hydrological-hydrodynamic coupled model is constructed to reveal the physical mechanisms of flood evolution in different areas. Additionally, an agent-based model (ABM) is used to simulate population evacuation behaviors and changes in risk states during flooding. Through sensitivity analysis of the key parameters in the ABM, the main factors influencing the dynamic changes in population vulnerability are identified, providing scientific support for optimizing emergency decision-making. Combining multi-source remote sensing data with the cloud model approach, a comprehensive dynamic flood risk assessment framework is established. This framework not only reflects the spatial differentiation characteristics of flood risk in different regions but also quantitatively describes the temporal evolution of risks, offering a new analytical perspective for urban flood prevention and disaster mitigation. The study results show that spatial heterogeneity within the city leads to significant differences in the carrying capacity of drainage systems, with 85.59 % of the drainage network already operating beyond capacity under a low return period (1-year return period). Population exposure exhibits obvious spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics, with the proportion of population risk under different return periods (1∼100-year return period) fluctuating between 15.04 % and 22.64 %, mainly concentrated at critical nodes such as road intersections. The regional flood risk level shows an evolution trend from low to high over time, and the depth of water sensation (correlation coefficient: 0.849) is identified as a key factor affecting","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105332"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ecological risk networks: A network structure model for simulating negative ecological linkages among ecologically sensitive areas","authors":"Xieyang Chen,&nbsp;Bingchen Zhu,&nbsp;Tongsheng Li,&nbsp;Xinzheng Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research on structural modeling of negative ecological flow networks across ecologically sensitive regions can reveal potential ecological risks in the region. We define this network structure model that simulates the interconnections of structural functions between discrete and isolated ecologically sensitive areas, and the negative ecological flows between them, as an ecological risk network. We chose an inland province, Shaanxi Province, at the junction of north and south China, as a research case. This article adopts the method of physical quality assessment to assess the ecological sensitivity of the research case. It identifies the risk source sites based on the evaluation results. Subsequently, potential risk corridors are determined based on circuit theory and the Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model. Finally, we constructed an ecological restoration pattern in Shaanxi Province and made targeted recommendations. 34 ecological risk sources, 50 nodes, and 77 corridors were identified. The research results indicate that there are more ecological risk networks in the northern part of the province, followed by the central part, and very few in the southern part. By analyzing the resistance surface of the ecological risk network, we found that the spatial distribution was formed because the Huanglongshan-Ziwuling mountain range hindered the connection between the dense ecological risk network area in the northern region of Shaanxi and the sparse area in the central region of Shaanxi. And the Qinling mountain range impeded the flow and diffusion of negative ecological flows in the northern part of Shaanxi and the central part of Shaanxi to the southern part of Shaanxi. The results of constructing the ecological restoration pattern show that cropland and grasslands are the most dominant ecological restoration patches. Some ecological restoration corridors and ecological restoration nodes overlap with the water and transportation networks. Targeted prevention and restoration strategies can be proposed in response to the above findings. This study is a practice and exploration of ecological risk network research. The results of this research can provide a theoretical reference for ecological restoration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105316"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143471178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Societal risk-to-life from natural hazards: Assessments, acceptability and actions at Whakaari/White Island and Piopiotahi/Milford Sound, Aotearoa/New Zealand","authors":"Tim Davies ,&nbsp;Jesse Dykstra","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105325","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105325","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conventional tourism risk-to-life analyses require data that are often unavailable, inaccurate or out-of-date. Thus tourist fatalities can occur where risk analyses have not been completed, as at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand in 2019, when 22 people on commercial tours died because of a sudden eruption. Even where risk analyses have been carried out (as at Piopiotahi/Milford Sound, New Zealand, a World Heritage Site where thousands of lives are endangered by coseismic landslide-triggered tsunami) unacceptable risks remain because (i) analyses can be misinterpreted, (ii) risk calculations change with time, and (iii) sociopolitical factors influence risk management decision-making.</div><div>Herein we (i) develop a methodology for reconnaissance (\"average\") risk-to-life assessment, to indicate where more complete assessments are required, and (ii) test this against (a) the empirical acceptability of risks following a disaster and (b) a series of risk analyses where no disaster has yet occurred.</div><div>We develop an “average” risk-to-life assessment for Whakaari/White Island, and compare its outcomes with existing risk analyses for Piopiotahi/Milford Sound. It agrees with post-event risk acceptability at Whakaari/White Island, and with pre-event risk analyses at Piopiotahi/Milford Sound.</div><div>We update the “average” risk analysis for Piopiotahi/Milford Sound by incorporating vulnerabilities of cruise ships and improved hazard data - the societal risk-to-life is unacceptable by several orders of magnitude. The only feasible strategy for achieving acceptable risk is drastically reducing visitor numbers. Socio-economic considerations suggest that this may not be societally practicable, which calls into question the way in which risk is used in planning to reduce tourism fatalities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105325"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143487747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of Africa","authors":"Nicole Paul ,&nbsp;Vitor Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Several destructive earthquakes have occurred throughout the African continent over the past century. However, few comprehensive seismic risk models exist for the region. This study presents a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Africa, which is comprised of open model components and data sets that enable the calculation of a range of risk metrics useful for disaster risk management. Across the continent, Algeria faces the most significant predicted building damage, economic loss, population displacement, and fatality risks due to earthquakes. After Algeria, the order of highest risk countries depends on the considered risk metric, with countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Uganda joining Algeria in the top three. When measured in relative terms, smaller countries that face disproportionate risks are highlighted, such as Djibouti, Burundi, Rwanda, and Malawi. These countries are exposed to moderate seismic hazard, but have limited evidence of earthquake-resistant design and construction practices that imply significant risk of damages in future earthquakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105303"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143473899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}