International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Evaluating the impacts of earthquake disasters on the building construction sector: a SARIMA-based counterfactual analysis","authors":"Diocel Harold M. Aquino,&nbsp;Niluka Domingo,&nbsp;Chinthaka Atapattu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105695","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105695","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disasters have a dual effect on the construction industry. While their initial impact disrupts construction activities, the resulting damage also stimulates construction demand. Existing scholarly literature predominantly adopts qualitative approaches in examining the impacts of disasters on the sector. This study introduces a quantitative methodology to assess the impacts of disasters on building construction activity. Utilizing counterfactual time series analysis, trajectories of the construction sector in the absence of disasters are simulated and subsequently compared with actual observed trajectories. Building consent datasets were obtained from Statistics New Zealand and time series analysis was employed to investigate the effect of the Canterbury and Kaikoura earthquakes on the building construction sector, examining impacts at both national and regional levels. The findings reveal that the Canterbury earthquake had a significant national impact, initially decreasing construction activity but subsequently leading to more rapid growth in the medium to long term than anticipated. In contrast, the Kaikoura earthquake's impact was largely confined to the Canterbury region, slowing the local building construction sector. This study highlighted the usefulness of counterfactual time series analysis in assessing the impacts of disasters on the construction sector, and its findings are useful for simulating the impacts of disasters and other shocks in forecasting future trajectories of the sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 105695"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interdisciplinary perspectives on the intersections of roads, sustainable development, and disaster resilience","authors":"Ellen B. Robson ,&nbsp;Peter McGowran ,&nbsp;Hanna A. Ruszczyk ,&nbsp;Bruce D. Malamud ,&nbsp;Edward Simpson ,&nbsp;Alexander L. Densmore ,&nbsp;Neil Denton ,&nbsp;Natasha Chapplow ,&nbsp;Phurwa Gurung ,&nbsp;Tilly E. Hall ,&nbsp;Rebekah Harries ,&nbsp;Jack Jenkins ,&nbsp;Apil KC ,&nbsp;Richard Kotter ,&nbsp;Ashutosh Kumar ,&nbsp;Bina Limbu ,&nbsp;David Milledge ,&nbsp;Gina Porter ,&nbsp;Nick Rosser ,&nbsp;Faith E. Taylor ,&nbsp;Kifle Woldearegay","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105691","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105691","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural hazard-influenced disasters, sustainable development, and roads are closely intertwined. Governments and funding agencies worldwide are increasingly focused on delivering disaster-resilient road infrastructure. However, the multifaceted, ubiquitous, and contested nature of road networks means that making them resilient to disasters is a complex task. Efforts to build resilient roads generate trade-offs against other policy goals like climate resilience and sustainable development, and always carry political implications. In this paper, we synthesise discussions that took place during a one-day hybrid workshop on the intersections between roads, development and disaster resilience with 50 practitioners, policymakers, and physical and social scientists from around the world with expertise in relevant fields. Two key themes emerged: (i) the political ecology of the resilience of road networks and (ii) the key players and politics surrounding road construction and maintenance. Through synthesising workshop discussions with contemporary literature, we present working definitions of disaster resilience for these two themes to help shape future interdisciplinary research on road disaster resilience.When thinking through the theme of political ecology, road disaster resilience is understood within the context of uneven power dynamics and the political work done by applying a resilience lens to the research objects in question. When thinking through key road players and politics, road disaster resilience is understood to emerge from the relationships between financers, knowledge holders, and those with ownership over the road. In synthesising key themes, we ultimately develop the concept of “roads-in-relation” as a framing device for future interdisciplinary road disaster resilience research that crosscuts these key themes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105691"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144679311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying social vulnerability profiles for coastal flood using supervised and unsupervised machine learning: A case study of Lekki Peninsula, Lagos, Nigeria","authors":"Adesola Akindejoye ,&nbsp;Christophe Viavattene ,&nbsp;Sally Priest ,&nbsp;David Windridge","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105693","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105693","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal flooding disproportionately impacts households based on pre-existing vulnerability characteristics. Identifying these vulnerabilities is critical for effective flood risk reduction. Despite its significance, there is a paucity of techniques for identifying suitable Social Vulnerability Indicators at a local scale. This study investigates an evidence-based indicator approach to rank factors contributing to social vulnerability to coastal flooding using a purposive sample of 1334 flood-affected households in Lekki Peninsula, Nigeria. By integrating the Expectation Maximization Algorithm with Support Vector Regression (EM-SVR), and employing permutation feature importance, we identified distinct social vulnerability clusters and their associated indicator profiles. The findings reveal that a substantial (over 60 %) of the case study had moderate level of vulnerability, with clusters of similar rankings exhibiting variations in indicator profiles. Also, significant differences within the wards were observed across all areas, especially in Ajiran/Osapa and Maroko/Okun Alfa. The EM-SVR models were evaluated using various metrics, which revealed that the EM-SVR achieved a high R-squared accuracy across the seven clusters, ranging from 88.8 % to 95.7 % for the training set and 90.2 %–96.1 % for the testing set. Furthermore, the models demonstrated a low Mean Absolute Error, ranging from 0.051 to 0.075 for training and 0.051 to 0.077 for testing. Financial instability, poor social networks, lack of insurance, and pre-existing health conditions consistently emerged as the most influential indicators across clusters. These findings offer actionable insight for decision-makers by providing a well-structured and targeted approach to identifying vulnerable households and enhancing mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 105693"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public risk perception in extreme weather events: topic distribution, spatiotemporal analysis, and sentiment comparison on social media","authors":"Ruochen Zhang ,&nbsp;An Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105692","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105692","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding public risk perception and emotional resonance during extreme weather events (EWEs) is vital for improving government risk communication and crafting effective climate adaptation strategies. This study examines public opinion related to the 2024 Chinese snowstorm through social media data analysis. A TF-IDF based Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model was used to explore the distribution and spatiotemporal evolution of risk perceptions. Additionally, emotion analysis employed an EWEs-tailored expanded dictionary to compare emotional content in official media and public posts. The key findings are: (1) six themes related to risk perception were identified, leading to the proposal of a three-category framework comprising social risk, disaster risk, and public opinion risk; (2) social media–amplified information cascades generate actionable gaps between public risk perception and actual disaster severity, posing challenges for effective crisis communication; (3) notable variations in the timeframes and fluctuation amplitudes of different risk themes highlight the need for more prompt government risk communication; (4) public sensitivity to extreme weather risks increases during holidays, particularly regarding transportation and government actions; (5) emotional expression in official media differs from that of the public, with the latter showing greater anxiety and fear while seeking empathy and support, while official media emphasize balanced reporting, guidance, and reassurance. These insights enhance the understanding of public climate change risk perception (CCRP), broaden the application of social media data in disaster risk management (DRM), and offer significant implications for refining government risk communication strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 105692"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144632581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismic resilience assessment method and multi-objective optimal recovery strategy for large-scale urban water distribution network system","authors":"Bo Chen,&nbsp;Hongjing Li,&nbsp;Guangjun Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105689","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105689","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Developing efficient system function calculation methods and optimal recovery strategies under limited resources is crucial assessing the seismic resilience of large-scale water distribution network system (WDNs). This study develops an innovative framework to address the shortcomings of traditional seismic resilience assessment methods, which suffer from excessive random simulations, inefficient node connectivity calculations, and difficulties in balancing system recovery speed with recovery costs. The framework first employs a quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method based on Sobol sequences to generate representative pipeline damage sample sets, significantly reducing the number of required random simulations. Subsequently, it introduces an Improved Warshall (IW) algorithm to determine node connectivity, markedly enhancing computational efficiency. Finally, it constructs a multi-objective recovery model that considers both resilience loss and total recovery cost, providing optimal recovery strategy for damaged pipeline networks that balance recovery speed and economic expenditure. A case study of the WDNs in the Modena demonstrates that this framework, by synergistically applying the QMC method and the IW algorithm, significantly enhances computational efficiency while maintaining assessment accuracy. Moreover, the proposed multi-objective recovery model not only accelerates system restoration but also ensures effective cost control in repair operations. Through dual breakthroughs in computational optimization and decision-making coordination, this framework provides a high-precision, high-efficiency solution for seismic resilience assessment and post-disaster recovery of large-scale WDNs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 105689"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tomorrow's Cities risk agreement approach: utilising the analytical, communication and convening power of science for inclusive, risk-sensitive urban planning","authors":"Roberto Gentile ,&nbsp;Tanvi Deshpande ,&nbsp;Erdem Ozer ,&nbsp;Sukirti Amatya ,&nbsp;Nisha Shrestha ,&nbsp;Ramesh Guragain ,&nbsp;Mark Pelling ,&nbsp;Hugh Sinclair","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105659","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105659","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global disaster risk reduction in urban development frameworks calls for people-centred, participatory, and integrated approaches to addressing urban risk and building resilience. This paper presents a methodology that engages communities at risk and policy actors to assess scientifically projected impacts of multiple hazards on locally defined future urban scenarios and co-develop measures to reduce future hazard impacts. The methodology enables stakeholders to identify barriers and strategies to support more people-centred, participatory, and risk-sensitive future urban development. Within a workshop, selected community groups are first introduced to an interactive dashboard that simplifies the communication of projected multi-hazard impacts (e.g., human displacement, casualties, loss of education capacity). Community groups identify and discuss the effects of different hazards, exposure, and vulnerability features along with projected impacts on community-led future urban scenarios. Such evidence-based and participatory discussions lead to a set of revisions of the urban scenarios. Finally, the groups discuss existing community, urban planning, and local decision-making challenges that could hinder the implementation of the urban scenarios. The proposed methodology is presented within the framework of the Tomorrow's Cities Decision Support Environment (TCDSE) and illustrated through a deployment in Rapti, Nepal. Findings confirm the ability of the approach to facilitate a shared understanding of context-specific risk amongst diverse local and policy actors. The combination of scientific and local information improves awareness and gives agency to marginalised groups for improved communication with urban planners in disaster risk reduction decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105659"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges and best practices during the development of FEMA's National Risk Index","authors":"Konstantinos Karagiorgos ,&nbsp;Tonje Grahn","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105683","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105683","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the development of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) National Risk Index (NRI), highlighting key challenges and effective strategies identified during its development. Semi-structured interviews with FEMA officials and contributing experts provided insights into methodological challenges, data management complexities, and inter-agency dynamics. The findings emphasised the significance of interdisciplinary collaboration, the early involvement of technical specialists, and iterative design processes. The study highlights the necessity for transparent documentation of methodological limitations and underscores the importance of effective stakeholder engagement and adaptive approaches. These insights can guide future national risk assessment initiatives aiming to enhance resilience and support informed decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 105683"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the effectiveness of drought disaster policies in South Africa: A focus on implementation in the agricultural sector","authors":"Teboho E. Masupha ,&nbsp;Mokhele E. Moeletsi ,&nbsp;Mitsuru Tsubo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105684","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105684","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a qualitative research approach, this study assessed the effectiveness of drought disaster policies in South Africa, with a specific focus on their implementation within the agricultural sector. Key informants at both national and provincial levels were interviewed from June 2021 to April 2022 using a semi-structured questionnaire. The data were analysed thematically using ATLAS.ti software, and policy effectiveness was assessed based on selected indicators. Findings revealed that while the national drought disaster policy aligns with global frameworks, significant discrepancies persist across provinces. Five of the seven participating provinces lacked dedicated agricultural drought plans and instead relied on general disaster frameworks. In practice, national-level policy implementation focused on project funding and compliance monitoring, whereas provincial interventions concentrated on farmer support initiatives, conducting risk assessments, and awareness campaigns. Despite these efforts, 68 % of participants expressed uncertainty about their effectiveness. Key challenges included uneven resource allocation, generic early warnings, reliance on government support, and the use of manual methods for documenting field assessments. Finally, policy revision was inconsistent, with some provinces still utilising outdated plans. Addressing these gaps requires coordinated support, enforced compliance mechanisms, investment in digital infrastructure, and adaptable governance frameworks that enable localised, evidence-based planning and implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 105684"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empowering “resilience-building agents”: An analysis of physical education teachers’ instructional intentions for disaster preparation","authors":"Tuba Gokmenoglu ,&nbsp;Elif Dasci Sonmez ,&nbsp;Ceyda Durmus ,&nbsp;Omur Fatih Karakullukcu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Physical education teachers hold unique characteristics, making them prominent figures in disaster education due to their expertise in physical preparedness, coordination, and safety. This study focuses on understanding the psychological and contextual factors that influence PE teachers' intentions to engage in two domains: their personal disaster preparedness behaviors and their instructional intentions to integrate disaster education into their teaching practices in Türkiye. Grounded in Protection Motivation Theory and Paton's social-cognitive framework, the data of 6,195 teachers from twelve provinces were analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistics. Structural equation modeling revealed the interplay between beliefs, critical awareness, perceived severity, trust, empowerment, self-efficacy, positive outcome expectancy, and response cost in shaping both general and teaching intentions for disaster preparedness. While teachers reported moderate levels of disaster preparedness behavior, their intentions to educate students on disaster-related topics were notably stronger. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening institutional support and psychological empowerment to bridge the gap between intention and action. Implications are discussed for policy, teacher education, and school-based disaster education strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 105685"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifiable community resilience solutions for coastal communities over long time horizons","authors":"Jiate Li ,&nbsp;John W. van de Lindt","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105682","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105682","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hurricanes pose some of the most severe threats to coastal communities, with global warming exacerbating their destructive impacts as sea levels continue to rise. As the pace of climate change accelerates, the need for effective climate adaptation strategies is more urgent than ever, particularly to support long-term community resilience. Quantifying this resilience is complex, but cumulative population outmigration can serve as a valuable indicator by capturing both prolonged physical and social impacts of hazard events. Additionally, evaluating climate adaptation strategies is challenging due to the substantial uncertainties in hurricane modeling under climate change and in community modeling over extended time horizons, i.e., several decades or more. Previous research has introduced the climate adaptation matrix (CAM) to help community stakeholders mitigate hurricane wind impacts by selecting appropriate adaptation strategies across climate change scenarios of varying intensity. This study advances the conceptualized community climate adaptation methodology by incorporating multi-hazard impacts and assessing population dynamics resulting from both inherent population changes and hazard-induced outmigration. The multi-hazard modeling framework integrates the effects of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and resulting sea level to estimate wind speeds, storm surge levels, and wave heights for future hurricane events. Both wind and water damage from hurricanes are then evaluated in the risk assessment process. The extended methodology is applied to develop an adaptation strategy for Miami Beach, Florida, by 2100, with a focus on enhancing the structural performance of residential buildings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 105682"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144579864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}