International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

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An index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method for prioritisation of existing bridge portfolios 基于指数的多灾害风险评估方法,用于确定现有桥梁组合的优先次序
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104895
Ludovico Alberico Grieco , Nicola Scattarreggia , Ricardo Monteiro , Fulvio Parisi
{"title":"An index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method for prioritisation of existing bridge portfolios","authors":"Ludovico Alberico Grieco ,&nbsp;Nicola Scattarreggia ,&nbsp;Ricardo Monteiro ,&nbsp;Fulvio Parisi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, several catastrophic collapses of existing bridges have highlighted the need for rapid risk analysis methods aimed at supporting infrastructure managers in the prioritisation of detailed assessments and, if any, risk mitigation actions. A large percentage of existing road bridges were built between the 1960s and 1980s, having thus already reached or even exceeded their design lifetime. Several studies have also shown that bridges often collapse due to either natural or human-related events, such as floods, collisions or overloading that, in addition to earthquakes, should be duly considered in risk assessment. This calls for multi-hazard approaches that provide an integrated perspective of the risk of bridge portfolios, to identify critical structures to support decision-makers. This study proposes a multi-hazard risk-based prioritisation methodology for application to a large number of bridges under limited level of knowledge. Specifically, the risk level is quantified through indices, accounting for uncertainties, that are used for comparative purposes among bridges. The methodology is applied to a highway bridge portfolio located in northern Italy, producing a risk-based ranking that is critically discussed. Analysis results are then compared with the outcome of the current Italian guidelines for safety assessment and maintenance of existing bridges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104895"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142528281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Emergency water distribution systems to improve spatial equality and spatial equity in a heterogeneous community with differing mobility characteristics” [Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 112 (2024) 104730] 对 "在具有不同流动性特征的异质社区中改善空间平等和空间公平的应急配水系统 "的更正[Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 112 (2024) 104730]
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104904
Jooho Kim , Dagyo Kweon , Sang Jin Kweon
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Emergency water distribution systems to improve spatial equality and spatial equity in a heterogeneous community with differing mobility characteristics” [Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 112 (2024) 104730]","authors":"Jooho Kim ,&nbsp;Dagyo Kweon ,&nbsp;Sang Jin Kweon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104904","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104904","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104904"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The state of disaster and resilience literature in British Columbia, Canada. A systematic scoping review 加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的灾害和复原力文献现状。系统范围审查
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104848
C. Milne , T. Legere , J. Eaton , S. Shneiderman , C. Molina Hutt
{"title":"The state of disaster and resilience literature in British Columbia, Canada. A systematic scoping review","authors":"C. Milne ,&nbsp;T. Legere ,&nbsp;J. Eaton ,&nbsp;S. Shneiderman ,&nbsp;C. Molina Hutt","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>British Columbia (BC), Canada is exposed to diverse natural hazards, leading to extensive research into disaster and resilience topics in the province. However, within disaster studies there is commonly siloing of research and knowledge between different fields, hindering integrated risk reduction solutions. This review aims to summarize the current state of disaster and resilience research in BC to provide context for future innovative research and response efforts. A systematic scoping review was used to balance the need for quantitative and qualitative analysis. 24 databases were systematically searched, and additional records were added from a Google Scholar scan and recommendations from disaster researchers. In total 4403 records were screened, of which 343 documents were analyzed. 87% of documents named a natural hazard type/s as the primary subject matter, while 13% discussed disaster and resilience more generally. Earthquakes were the most frequently discussed hazard, while storm/weather and drought were the least. STEM disciplines published the most on the reviewed themes (73% of documents). A spatial disjuncture was found between locations discussed in the literature versus historic BC disaster trends. Overall, there were several hazards, scales and disciplines that were underrepresented. Furthermore, there was a trend towards application of methods and findings primarily to inform global conversations, missing opportunities to provide local or regional recommendations, or deeper acknowledgements of cultural and historical contexts. This review highlights strengths and gaps in the current disaster and resilience publications in BC and adds to the growing literature on the importance of interdisciplinary and place-based disaster research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104848"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards integrated multi-risk reduction strategies: A catalog of flood and earthquake risk mitigation measures at the building and neighborhood scales 实现综合的多重风险降低战略:建筑物和社区范围内的洪水和地震风险缓解措施目录
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104884
Abbas FathiAzar , Silvia De Angeli , Serena Cattari
{"title":"Towards integrated multi-risk reduction strategies: A catalog of flood and earthquake risk mitigation measures at the building and neighborhood scales","authors":"Abbas FathiAzar ,&nbsp;Silvia De Angeli ,&nbsp;Serena Cattari","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104884","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104884","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The integration of risk reduction measures for earthquakes and floods is a promising concept in the field of multi-hazard disaster risk reduction. However, existing studies mostly discuss it conceptually, often missing a focus on decision-making. This paper introduces a novel approach by examining synergies and trade-offs between earthquake and flood risk reduction measures. The paper first conducts a detailed analysis of selected measures for these two hazards. It then explores how these individual risk mitigation measures can be strategically integrated at the building level to maximize synergies, potentially resulting in time and cost savings. Furthermore, it discusses the limitations of current decision-making procedures for single-hazard risk mitigation selection when applied to multi-hazard risk (MHR) scenarios. To address these challenges, the study proposes new decision variables to be incorporated into existing Multi-Criteria Decision-Making frameworks with the aim of facilitating strategic risk reduction prioritization for MHR scenarios, ensuring sustainability and community resilience. To aid implementation (i.e., the phase in which the measure would be selected and tested in a series of case study buildings), a catalog of analyzed risk reduction measures is developed and provided as Supplementary Material. In future developments, this catalog will facilitate the integration of these measures into decision-support tools for evidence-based multi-hazard disaster risk reduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104884"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism on building systems: Field research applied in Pozzuoli Phlaegrean Bradyseism 对建筑系统的影响:波佐利实地研究
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104899
Mariacarla Fraiese, Veronica Vitiello, Roberto Castelluccio
{"title":"The effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism on building systems: Field research applied in Pozzuoli","authors":"Mariacarla Fraiese,&nbsp;Veronica Vitiello,&nbsp;Roberto Castelluccio","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104899","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104899","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The contribution presents the results of field research aimed at assessing the effects of the Phlaegrean Bradyseism phenomena on a building system located in the historic centre of Pozzuoli (Italy). The study falls within the scope of building façade vulnerability analyses conducted by the authors to support the Public Administration in managing bradyseismic emergencies.</div><div>Considering that the seismic-deformation phenomena connected to Bradyseism affect the performance and integrity of façade components, the research focused on studying its impact on the technical elements within the Technological Unit Classes of “Load-bearing Structure”, “Enclosure”, and “External Partition”, which directly project onto the external environment and collectively constitute the Building Envelope. The methodology for impact assessment was developed by correlating data acquired from a monitoring system installed on the façade of a surveyed building with characteristic parameters related to seismic events and soil deformations in a specific reference period. The analyses conducted excluded any significant impact of these seismic-deformation forcings on the building's Load-bearing Structure, both in terms of displacements and damage. On the other hand, significant impacts were found on the technical elements of the building envelope, which, due to their lower resistance and ductility, represent a constant hazard for the exposed urban system's safety, configuring a Building Risk scenario.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104899"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Operational status effect on the seismic risk assessment of oil refineries 运行状态对炼油厂地震风险评估的影响
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104842
Vasileios E. Melissianos , Nikolaos D. Karaferis , Konstantinos Bakalis , Athanasia K. Kazantzi , Dimitrios Vamvatsikos
{"title":"Operational status effect on the seismic risk assessment of oil refineries","authors":"Vasileios E. Melissianos ,&nbsp;Nikolaos D. Karaferis ,&nbsp;Konstantinos Bakalis ,&nbsp;Athanasia K. Kazantzi ,&nbsp;Dimitrios Vamvatsikos","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The operational status of an oil refinery (type and scale of operations that take place at any time instance) largely determines the amount of fuel produced, circulated within the facility, and stored in tanks. This status is affected by seasonality, periods of peak or low demand, as well as periods of routine maintenance. However, it is an aspect that is typically neglected even though it stands out among the factors that determine the seismic performance of several critical industrial assets, such as the storage tanks, as well as the consequences of any potential failure. An open-source refinery testbed is employed herein to demonstrate the effect of the refinery's operational status on the seismic risk estimates. Alternative realistic operational scenarios are developed following typical industry practices and are arranged over a time period between two refinery major maintenance shutdown events. The most probable damage state is selected for each asset to identify the most vulnerable ones. Based on the type and importance of the impacted assets, the potential consequences are determined at the facility level. Resulting estimates are very different if an earthquake strikes during a regular/high/low-demand period, or a maintenance period. The framework can be utilized to identify the locations within the refinery that may trigger cascading failures and secondary damages, should their assets be damaged by a seismic event. The outcomes can be exploited by stakeholders, risk engineers, and emergency action planners for developing customized and businesslike procedures to enhance the seismic resilience of the facility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104842"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Buyouts in the Carolinas: Pre & Post buyout perspectives of public officials and community leaders 卡罗来纳州的收购:公职人员和社区领袖对收购前后的看法
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104906
Anuradha Mukherji , Ke’Ziyah Williamson , Kayode Nelson Adeniji , Millea Meghan , Scott Curtis , Bella Sardina
{"title":"Buyouts in the Carolinas: Pre & Post buyout perspectives of public officials and community leaders","authors":"Anuradha Mukherji ,&nbsp;Ke’Ziyah Williamson ,&nbsp;Kayode Nelson Adeniji ,&nbsp;Millea Meghan ,&nbsp;Scott Curtis ,&nbsp;Bella Sardina","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound floods in rural, low-income communities are rising across the United States as storms intensify and weather patterns change. In communities experiencing repeated back-to-back flooding, the events impact residents who have lived in those areas for many generations. Voluntary buyouts of properties at risk of repeat flooding are increasingly being offered as a long-term mitigation solution. This study looks at the consequences of buyout programs in two low-income, underserved, and predominantly Black communities, Bennettsville, South Carolina and Tarboro, North Carolina, that have experienced compound floods (e.g. rain and riverine flooding). Results from in-depth interviews conducted with public officials and community leaders in Bennettsville and Tarboro reveal buyout governance characterized by state-led implementation. While buyout programs have historically been implemented by local governments, the intention to achieve greater implementation efficiency underlies recent state-led efforts. Nevertheless, state-led implementation in South and North Carolina has not resolved long-standing issues within the buyout program that center around program design and communications. Further, while the state-led implementation of buyouts is expected to ease financial pressures on local governments, it can also create unintended consequences for local communities including extended delays, lack of trust in the government, and more confusion over the buyout process. The study recommends the use of a more localized approach and providing program implementation assistance to local governments through established protocols, and creating communication and trust with buyout communities through direct accessible flow of information using multiple modes and a trusted local point of contact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104906"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in residential areas 住宅区地震伤亡概率评估
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104902
Yuanyuan Ren , Donghui Ma , Wei Wang , Ziyi Wang , Xingde Zhao , Menghua Zhu
{"title":"Probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in residential areas","authors":"Yuanyuan Ren ,&nbsp;Donghui Ma ,&nbsp;Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Ziyi Wang ,&nbsp;Xingde Zhao ,&nbsp;Menghua Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104902","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately and reasonably assessing earthquake casualties is crucial for seismic disaster planning and governmental decision-making. However, current research on earthquake casualty assessments often lacks sufficient consideration of the uncertainties related to seismic scenarios and influencing factors. To enhance the authenticity and reliability of casualty assessments, this study proposes a seismic casualty assessment model capable of simultaneously considering multiple influencing factors. It quantitatively evaluates each influencing factor and comprehensively integrates the uncertainty characteristics associated with seismic occurrence time, building damage states, and the number of occupants. Using a residential area as an example, the research compares casualty assessment results with and without considering apartment layouts and the age structure of residents. It also explains the probabilistic method for quantifying casualties and constructing vulnerability models for seismic events in the residential area. Additionally, a simplified analytical method applicable to probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in masonry residential areas in Beijing is proposed. The research findings indicate that the apartment layouts within buildings have a relatively minor impact on the assessment results of casualties in the residential area, while the age structure of residents significantly affects earthquake casualty estimates. Casualty rates in the residential area, considering uncertainties in the three factors, approximately follow a log-normal distribution. For seismic intensities ranging from VI(0.05g) to IX(0.40g), the standard deviation of casualty rates across different seismic intensities exceeds 0.4. The probabilistic analysis method proposed in this study enhances existing models for earthquake casualty assessments and addresses the shortcomings in probabilistic evaluation research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104902"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation: Factors, roles and behaviors 探索医院疏散中社会角色的动态变化:因素、角色和行为
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104893
Jing Lin , Yan Xue , Runhe Zhu , Zhongang Peng
{"title":"Exploring the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation: Factors, roles and behaviors","authors":"Jing Lin ,&nbsp;Yan Xue ,&nbsp;Runhe Zhu ,&nbsp;Zhongang Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104893","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104893","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a critical city facility of our society, it is important for hospitals to be resilient against emergencies for a health imperative and economic buoyancy. Understanding the evacuation behaviors of hospital roles and the corresponding influencing factors is essential for the accurate execution of emergency response plans and well-being. Therefore, this study aims to explore the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation by understanding the mediation effects of role evolution factors (i.e., responsibility, competence, and expectation of evacuation roles). Questionnaires on hospital roles, role evolution factors, and evacuation behaviors were designed and distributed, with a total of 324 responses from various hospital occupants. The common method variance analysis, internal consistency test, item analysis, and exploratory factor analysis consistently indicated good reliability and validity of the questionnaire. Chain mediation models of three prominent evacuation roles, namely leader, emergency responder, and follower were developed, with the three role evolution factors as mediating variables, evacuation behavior as the dependent variable, and hospital role as the independent variable. Findings indicated significant path effects of hospital roles and role evolutionary factors on leadership, emergency responding, and following behaviors. One-way ANOVA on egocentric behavior and hesitant behavior of hospital roles revealed that patients have a higher propensity for negative behaviors compared with hospital staff. In light of the findings, the subtle relationship between hospital roles, role evolution factors, and evacuation behaviors was revealed. Role-specific leadership training, role-based emergency response management, role-related following behavior guidance, and negative behavior reduction measures were proposed for improving hospital safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104893"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Judgment and decision strategies used by weather scientists in southeast Asia to classify impact severity 东南亚气象科学家用于划分影响严重程度的判断和决策策略
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799
Xiaoxiao Niu , Henrik Singmann , Faye Wyatt , Agie W. Putra , Azlai Taat , Jehan S. Panti , Lam Hoang , Lorenzo A. Moron , Sazali Osman , Riefda Novikarany , Diep Quang Tran , Rebecca Beckett , Adam JL. Harris
{"title":"Judgment and decision strategies used by weather scientists in southeast Asia to classify impact severity","authors":"Xiaoxiao Niu ,&nbsp;Henrik Singmann ,&nbsp;Faye Wyatt ,&nbsp;Agie W. Putra ,&nbsp;Azlai Taat ,&nbsp;Jehan S. Panti ,&nbsp;Lam Hoang ,&nbsp;Lorenzo A. Moron ,&nbsp;Sazali Osman ,&nbsp;Riefda Novikarany ,&nbsp;Diep Quang Tran ,&nbsp;Rebecca Beckett ,&nbsp;Adam JL. Harris","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Impact-based weather forecasting requires forecasters to predict what weather might <em>do</em> (impact information), rather than solely what weather might <em>be</em> (meteorological information). In a collaboration between the UK Met Office, UK psychologists, and weather scientists in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, the present study employed Judgment Analysis and decision strategy comparisons to better understand weather scientists' impact severity judgments. In the Judgment Analysis Task, weather scientists (from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) made numerical and categorical severity judgments for 70 hypothetical heavy rainfall events, each described via six impacts (e.g., number of deaths, number of people affected). The hypothetical impacts were generated from a multivariate distribution estimated from a distribution of real rainfall events. Subsequently, participants provided categorical severity classifications for a list of impact values for each type of impact (Threshold Identification Task) to aid the identification of decision strategies. In all four countries, weather scientists' severity judgments were best predicted by incorporating all six impacts via a compensatory judgment strategy. However, considerable individual differences were identified in the weights assigned to the different impacts and in the identified thresholds for each impact's categorical severity classification. To improve impact-based forecasting, meteorological agencies should seek to enhance consistency among forecasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 104799"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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