{"title":"Long-term communication of aftershock forecasts: The Canterbury earthquake sequence in New Zealand","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104878","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104878","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On 14 February 2016, a magnitude (M)5.7 earthquake struck in Christchurch New Zealand (Aotearoa in the Maori language). The shaking caused damage to historic facades, power outages, cliff collapses, rock falls, and liquefaction but no reported injuries or fatalities. This Valentine’s Day earthquake was an aftershock in the Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES), which began on 4 September 2010 with the M7.1 Darfield Earthquake and included the destructive and fatal M6.2 Christchurch aftershock on 22 February 2011. This study, eight months after the Valentine’s Day earthquake and six years after the initiation of the CES, is the first to explore long-term aftershock forecast information and communication needs. The exploratory study also aimed to gather feedback on aftershock scenarios, an alternative form for communicating the forecast.</div><div>The qualitative study involved workshops with emergency managers, public health officials, and members of the public in Christchurch. Key findings for long-term communication throughout an earthquake sequence include: 1. divergent earthquake experiences affect aftershock communication response and information needs; 2. understanding aftershock sequence behavior is foundational to sense-making when large aftershocks occur; 3. strategic earthquake sequence updates from the trusted science agency and local agencies could serve as important reminders for earthquake preparedness; 4. communication of aftershock forecast uncertainty could aid with both the credibility of the information and living with uncertainty, and 5. inclusion of impact information and preparedness advice into aftershock forecast scenarios could provide links to actionable information. The paper derives implications for research and practice of long-term communications during an aftershock sequence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142528279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Enhancing resilience to climate events: A multi-capital approach in social work","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104883","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104883","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate events have been identified as issues of global concern due to their devastating impacts. Social work seeks to reduce inequalities and promote empowerment to achieve the welfare of individuals and communities. It is, therefore, one of the key professions in reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience to natural hazards. This study explores how social work could enhance individuals’ resilience to climate events through employing the multi-capital approach. This qualitative study uses 43 semi-structured interviews with social workers, non-governmental organisation workers, religious leaders, and service users in Oman. After analysing their experiences thematically, the data indicate that risk is differentially distributed between and within communities. Climate events may affect two communities differently and even people within the same community differently. Based on the concepts of vulnerability and resilience, the impacts of climate events and individual responses would vary based on their capital levels. The findings also indicate that the multi-capital approach can be used as a guiding approach that assists social workers in identifying both strong and low capital and working to strengthen them. Interestingly, although the multi-capital approach does not consider spiritual capital, the findings illustrate that every aspect of human nature must be linked to God in Islamic societies and stresses faith and stability. Some implications for policy, practice, and education have been outlined, such as developing social work curricula by considering the modification proposed to the multi-capital approach. Moreover, integrating spiritual capital into disaster resilience frameworks is crucial for holistic policy development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Grey models for data analysis and decision-making in uncertainty during pandemics","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104881","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104881","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyse in this study quite a few uncertain decision-making situations concomitant to a pandemic spread and some of the models using grey theory to deal with such situations. We present <em>four</em> stylised models to tackle different decision support situations at the time of any pandemic crisis, such as COVID-19. <em>Eight</em> diverse problems or situations of risk mitigation and decision-making under uncertainties are proposed in this research and the methodologies employing grey incidence analysis, grey clustering, grey prediction, and grey programming models are offered. Numerical illustrations of the applications of these methodologies are also typified in this paper for future development. A practical application of the widely used grey prediction model is also demonstrated in this study to predict the number of COVID-19 infections and fatalities of <em>five</em> Indian states during a considered period of study. The implications of the study are for data scientists, decision-makers, and practitioners to use the benefits of grey theory in dealing with various situations of uncertainty, such as a spread of a pandemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A study of the impact of urban spaces on social resilience in case of natural disasters: Insights from citizens affected by March 2019 flood in Aq Qala City, Iran","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104862","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104862","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The number of urban crises has been notably on the rise all around the globe during the past few decades due to shifts in ecological cycles and social challenges, among other reasons. These crises have had a more pronounced impact on urban areas, which are more vulnerable. The various aspects of resilience have become the focal points in sustainable development research and other related studies, and some solutions have been proposed within the concepts and framework of sustainable development for countering these crises, among which urban resilience is more prominent owing to its inherent functional principles. Among the various aspects of resilience, social resilience is linked to the social capacities of urban regions. A review of the related literature reveals the shortage of studies about the relationship between urban spaces and social resilience. This study aims to uncover the mechanisms through which urban spaces influence social resilience following natural disasters through the perceptions of the citizens affected by the March 2019 flood in Aq Qala, Golestan Province, Iran. To achieve this, we first developed a conceptual model grounded in a review of relevant theoretical literature. Subsequently, a structured 5-point scale questionnaire was designed and distributed for data collection. The collected data was then subjected to structural equation modeling to analyze the conceptual model. The findings highlight the critical factors in forming social resilience from the perspective of Aq Qala residents, with a specific emphasis on city structure, activity, social capital, and social cohesion as integral components.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Landslides and flood hazard mapping using geomorphological methods in Santa Ana, Costa Rica","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104882","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104882","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the critical need for comprehensive hazard maps to guide urban and periurban risk management in Santa Ana, Costa Rica. Located near the capital, San Jose, Santa Ana is a rapidly developing municipality characterized by high-value properties, commercial zones, luxury housing, agricultural, and protected areas. However, it faces significant challenges from landslides and floods. Despite its vulnerability, the municipality lacks detailed, holistic hazard assessments. To bridge this gap, we employed geomorphological methods, including morphometry and morphogenetics, integrated with geographic information systems (GIS), historical data, and on-site validation. Our analysis identified that slopes exceeding 20° are particularly susceptible to landslides, with valleys and unstable hillslopes being critical zones for seismic and water-induced destabilization. For flood hazards, areas with low slope and high flow accumulation, such as alluvial fans and flood plains, were found to be highly susceptible. Field and mapping validation against the DesInventar disaster database confirmed the accuracy of our hazard zones. These findings provide essential geospatial insights for effective risk management, decision-making, and territorial planning, enabling proactive and adaptive responses to natural hazards in Santa Ana. While this study does not present radical methodological innovations, its main contribution lies in demonstrating how easy-access and practical geomorphological tools can be used to generate valuable information on risk zoning in regions with limited resources. Furthermore, the methodology and insights from this study are applicable to other urban and periurban regions facing similar geomorphic hazards, highlighting its broader relevance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shifting risks back to the state? Flood insurance and responsibility in the face of climate change in Australia","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104874","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104874","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In Australia, with its neoliberal policy tradition, responsibility for dealing with severe and extreme weather events such as floods and bushfires has mainly been left to individual households and insurance markets. With the growing number of extreme weather events, existing institutional arrangements and behavioral patterns are challenged. Individuals have difficulties to reliably assess and manage knowledge about such climate change related hazards. In response to the growing uncertainties of rising costs due to increasing flooding and bushfire events, insurers raise their premiums for house and contents insurance or even withdraw from insuring high-risk areas altogether. Based on semi-structured interviews with 26 (re)insurance, legal, financial, and urban planning experts conducted in 2022, the study provides empirical insights in the still under-researched question of how responsibilities are understood and attributed amongst different stakeholders in the context of changing climate. The findings show that extreme weather events and the individualization of risk lead to new, complex patterns of sharing responsibilities amongst banks, insurers and the different governmental levels with a stronger emphasis on state regulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Determining the critical factors for realising successful post-disaster reconstruction projects in the Caribbean","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104877","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104877","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Business as usual project management practice may not be applicable in the recovery of the built environment following a disaster. Unfortunately, little research has been undertaken to understand the nature of post-disaster recovery projects and the requirements for their success in the Caribbean. The Caribbean islands' exposure and susceptibility to natural hazards make it essential to understand what constitutes successful post-disaster reconstruction. By drawing on end-users’ perspectives in four Caribbean islands (Antigua, Dominica, Grenada, St. Vincent) through a quantitative survey and factor analysis, this paper identifies critical factors that determine successful outcomes with post-disaster Caribbean recovery projects. The factor analysis results from the survey responses on 24 empirical success factors suggests four composite Caribbean specific critical success factors, namely, 1) effective management of project knowledge, 2) environment and ecosystem stewardship, 3) stakeholder engagements at multiple levels, and 4) efficient management of financial, social and human resources. The findings from this research can assist with minimising the recurring post-disaster reconstruction projects, project financing donors and managers with an understanding of the issues that matter most to the region success, and realising the end-users’ (the beneficiaries) expectations. Mainstreaming these factors into project planning and execution, and adopting resilience-oriented project management practices, augers well for managing Caribbean disaster reconstruction projects for greater success.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Vietnamese migrants’ engagement in disaster risk reduction: The relevance of social capital","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104879","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104879","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Researchers commonly employ the concept of social capital to examine how people engage with disaster risk reduction. This approach has generated useful knowledge to improve the effectiveness of disaster risk reduction for the general population. However, disaster risk reduction knowledge and practices designed for the general population might not speak to Vietnamese migrants because they do not reflect Vietnamese cultural practices and norms. This paper contributes to the literature by presenting findings from a narrative inquiry into Vietnamese migrants’ experiences of disaster risk reduction in the Wellington Region, Aotearoa New Zealand. The participants’ narratives suggest that Vietnamese migrants employ bonding and bridging social capital to gain knowledge about natural hazards and disaster risk reduction. Their disaster risk reduction reflects certain socio-cultural norms and values as well as family and gender dynamics among Vietnamese migrants. The findings also indicate that, for Vietnamese migrants who do not have well-established social networks, social capital-based disaster risk reduction might be less effective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Safety hazard inspection system during typhoon warning period to improve the disaster resistance ability of road and bridge construction site","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104876","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104876","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Typhoons are frequent in coastal cities, and the vulnerability of road and bridge construction sites is high, but existing studies have not focused on the safety management of road and bridge construction sites under typhoon disasters. Traditional manual safety inspections suffer from problems such as low efficiency, high subjectivity, and incomplete coverage. Therefore, this study aims to develop an intelligent safety management system for road and bridge construction sites during the typhoon warning period, in order to achieve rapid and automated typhoon prevention and control. In this study, the automatic identification algorithm of potential safety hazards was developed based on the MATLAB platform, and then the system design of the MATLAB GUI was carried out, which ultimately forms the automatic safety hazard inspection and measure enquiry system during the typhoon warning period for road and bridge construction sites (RBS-TY). The system can realize the detection of vertical deformation, safety distance and safety height by using the point cloud data of the object to be measured. According to the identified safety hazards, it will automatically retrieve the database of typhoon safety measures in the road and bridge construction site and provide the countermeasures in the GUI interface. Experimentally verified results show that this system can assist safety management personnel to quickly guide typhoon prevention and control work during the 24-h typhoon warning period, improve the efficiency of safety management, and help to promote the development of intelligent typhoon emergency response technology at road and bridge construction sites.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Exploring residents’ expectations and designers’ perspectives towards post-earthquake permanent housing: A case study in Antakya","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Post-disaster permanent housing is the backbone of the recovery efforts after destructive events. It holds great potential to adopt new technological innovations and to provide improved conditions for these everyday spaces. However, previous investigations suggest that these housing projects lack consideration of the inhabitants' expectations, needs, and values due to environmental, cultural, and social factors, resulting in a dissatisfactory built environment. Following the Kahramanmaraş earthquake on February 6, 2023, this research aims to explore the expectations of affected residents in the historic district of Antakya. We expect to contribute to decision-makers, designers, and the technology industry to develop more user-centered housing recovery efforts in the aftermath of these devastating events. The findings revealed four implications from the expectations for post-earthquake homes: (1) designing for togetherness, (2) valuing community efforts and traditional work, (3) including productional activities, and lastly, (4) preserving and reminiscing heritage values. Additionally, we discussed these four implications with multi-disciplinary designers to expand the discussion space for designing post-earthquake permanent homes in Antakya. Overall, these implications suggest some future architectural changes in homes as their residents' expectations, including the creation of new heritage and production spaces using digital, physical, and mixed reality technologies, as well as the emergence of new social gathering spaces. By conducting a case study in Antakya, our research highlights the potential for the further development of post-disaster permanent homes that not only provide shelter and safety but also enhance the overall quality of life for the residents, both for Antakya and the other relevant cases worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142425766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}