International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Analysis of the timing of evacuation and associated factors among home health care patients during flooding: A single-clinic-based mixed methods study","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104762","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104762","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Home health care patients (HHPs) are vulnerable to flooding and may face evacuation difficulties. Previous studies reported that HHPs and their families are more susceptible to disasters than non-HHPs. Our prior research revealed that many HHPs in Fukui, Japan, were at risk for flooding and landslides, requiring evacuation assistance, yet few were aware of the exact risks. This study analyzed survey data to identify barriers to evacuation during floods and assess the assistance needed among HHPs. A concurrent nested design of mixed-method research was employed. We calculated the percentage of the 87 HHPs at risk likely to delay evacuation and constructed univariable and multivariable logistic regression models to identify factors associated with delayed evacuation, and employed a thematic analysis to identify concerns and needs during evacuation. Family members responded to the questionnaire for patients unable to respond. The study found that 69.0 % of patients delayed evacuation, with 61.7 % incorrectly perceiving disaster risks and 20.0 % considering evacuation unimportant. Those with incorrect risk perceptions were slower to evacuate than those with accurate perceptions (OR: 1.35, 95 % confidence interval: 1.06–6.99, p-value: 0.036). Seven themes about flood preparedness needs were extracted from open-ended statements. Factors contributing to delayed evacuation included assumptions of vertical evacuation due to mobility challenges and concerns about evacuation site environments. Few Japanese HHPs at risk of flooding and landslides would plan an early evacuation, often due to misperceived disaster risks. Specific measures are needed to address these issues, and further investigation is required as flooding may also affect patient supporters.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142002318","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What is the potential of creative practice for building community resilience in flood-prone communities in the UK?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104760","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104760","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper critically explores the potential of creative practices to support community resilience in relation to flooding, coastal erosion and inundation in the UK. We argue that imaginative ways of thinking, communicating, and working are necessarily required to better engage publics and manage the entangled and far-reaching environmental problems that we face today. The social impacts of intractable challenges like flooding present a conundrum that requires novel approaches to their resolution. We start from the position that creative practices could offer us a fresh and powerful way to confront these impasses. However, the relations, dispositions, geographies and political dynamics involved in socially engaged creative processes remain to be more fully explored. In order to begin this process, the paper unpacks the concept of community resilience as a series of intersecting place-based elements rather than as a universal capacity. It then examines the social processes intrinsic to creative practice based on publicly-focused engagements. It outlines how these might address key elements of community resilience in terms of the social processes they perform. The paper argues that this unpacking is a prerequisite for any attempt to think more systematically about how creative practices might facilitate building community resilience in place. It concludes by turning to the notion of community itself and explores how thinking developed through the paper might have informed two located case studies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142157766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk prediction based on oversampling technology and ensemble model optimized by tree-structured parzed estimator","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104753","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104753","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>High accuracy prediction of urban flood risk is conducive to avoid potential losses, however, it's negatively affected by unbalanced data. Furthermore, ensemble model has been demonstrated to have the ability to improve to prediction accuracy. Nevertheless, the performance of ensemble model is influenced by basic model and ensemble rules, and determining the best ensemble model remains an open issue. To improve the accuracy of flood risk prediction, an approach covering data optimization and ensemble modeling was presented to optimize unbalanced flood data and the selection of various ensemble models based on efficiency and performance. A practical application in Zhengzhou City shows that Borderline-SMOTE2 is the most applicable for optimizing the flood risk data among the state-of-the-art oversampling algorithm utilized, because of the excellent entropy value. The effect of unbalanced data on the performance of the basic models was pervasive according to changes of the common indicators. The optimal ensemble model for flood risk prediction is composed of K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree, Gaussian Naive Bayes and Extreme Gradient Boosting under Stacking rule in the current study. The results of this study supply the valuable reference for the flood prediction and mitigation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141979623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismic retrofit optimization of water distribution systems based on the reduction of uncertain damage scenarios","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104756","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104756","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Pre-event interventions, such as retrofit of critical components, are effective strategies to improve the seismic performance and resilience of infrastructure systems. This paper proposes a damage scenario reduction method aims to reduce the computation burden within the seismic retrofit optimization for water distribution systems (WDSs) considering the uncertain damages of pipelines. The optimization framework consists of a multi-objective optimization model for WDS pipeline retrofit and a sequential optimization model for the reduction of uncertain damage scenarios. The multi-objective optimization model is established to minimize the retrofit cost and maximize the seismic performance of WDS. The sequential optimization model, namely weighted optimization-based probabilistic scenarios (OPS + W), was designed to mitigate the computational burden of the multi-objective optimization model, which arises from considering pipeline damage uncertainties through quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling that generates numerous damage scenarios. The OPS + W selects a few representative damage scenarios from numerous QMC scenarios, aiming to minimize the error of pipeline damage probabilities counted by the representative scenarios, where the error is weighted by the importance of pipeline. The effectiveness of OPS + W is verified through its application in seismic retrofit optimization of two WDS cases and compared with other scenario reduction methods. Application results reveal that the retrofit strategies derived from OPS + W have the highest similarity to those obtained from QMC scenarios while requiring only 3 %–10 % of the computation time compared to using QMC scenarios.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142047912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling the assessment process behind an integrated flood risk management plan","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104755","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104755","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the context of the European Floods Directive, flood risk assessment is a critical component for the definition of an integrated management plan that operates within a multidimensional landscape shaped by intricate interactions. This study explores this complex interplay using a comprehensive framework, aimed at enlightening the non-linear pathways that flood risk assessments can traverse. It adopts the Gioia Methodology within the Grounded Theory approaches, enabling a nuanced exploration of flood risk assessment dynamics. Utilizing data from an Italian case study in the Po River District, this study unveils the flood risk assessment process framework by identifying 13 first-order codes, 6 s-order themes and 3 aggregate dimensions. It introduces a qualitative self-assessment tool to facilitate integration across dimensions and enhance Directive alignment, offering valuable insights for future flood risk assessment implementations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142045005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relationship between political participation and community resilience in the disaster risk process: A systematic review","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104751","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104751","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article presents the results of a systematic review of the evidence on the relationship between political participation and community resilience in the face of disasters. The study aimed to understand the contribution of political participation to the resilience of communities exposed to disasters or disaster risks. The review included research reports conducted with communities exposed to disasters or disaster risks that presented results on political participation and community resilience variables. Studies presenting individual or family resilience results and theoretical articles or literature reviews were excluded. The search for studies was conducted in Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, PubMed, EBSCO, Dialnet, Scielo, and in repositories of international organizations dedicated to disaster risk management; the databases were reviewed between April and August 2023, and studies published between 2013 and 2023 were included. The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) standardized checklists were used to critically appraise included studies. Data extraction and coding were done using a guide specifying relevant information according to the review's objectives, such as types of participation and the extent of participation according to Arnstein's Ladder. Data synthesis was done following the convergent integrated design, which is part of the mixed methods systematic reviews. A data transformation process was conducted that converted quantitative data into qualitative data, and using the meta-aggregation technique; categories were created based on the similarity in the meaning of the data. Upon reviewing the 22 research articles that met all inclusion criteria, it was found that political participation promotes community resilience to disasters by contributing to the quality and transparency of post-disaster reconstruction projects, enhancing trust and satisfaction with these projects, and fostering community autonomy in disaster risk management programs. However, despite its contribution to resilience, participation is often limited by multiple barriers that reduce its influence on disaster risk management projects. Studies emphasizing the political nature of participation in community resilience to disasters remain scarce and only sometimes account for the community's impact on decision-making and the distribution of power and public goods. It is concluded that political participation is recognized as a facilitator of community resilience, especially when it constitutes civic power. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO on April 18, 2023, with the code CRD42023415350, and is available at <span><span>https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42023415350</span><svg><path></path></svg></span>.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141979750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk assessment of disaster chain in multi-seam mining beneath gully topography","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104750","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104750","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mining-induced geological disasters in gully landforms exhibit distinct characteristics of disaster transformation, with various types of disasters often displaying temporal and spatial chain reactions. The research on the risk assessment of disaster chains in multi-seam mining beneath gully topography is still in its nascent stage. The research area, characterized by its multi-seam mining and gully landforms, has been confronting significant natural and anthropogenic environmental issues within the region. Mining subsidence and mining landslides represent critical disasters in this area. Consequently, this study quantified the degree of disturbance caused by multi-seam mining, considering it as a factor influencing subsidence, which was incorporated into the classification analysis of mining subsidence intensity alongside geological factors and distance from geological structures. A random forest (RF) model was employed to generate a subsidence hazard mapping, and the outcomes of subsidence hazard mapping were utilized as one of the triggering factor parameters for landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM). Simultaneously, a rainfall-runoff layer was introduced to convert the non-uniformity of rainfall, which is challenging to consider in small research areas, into the non-uniformity of runoff, which is used in the LSM together with elevation, slope, aspect, and landcover. The resultant map corresponded with the field investigation results, validating its added value. Moreover, the formation mechanism and risk analysis of the multi-disaster chain, specifically the “subsidence-landslide-barrier lake” in the research area were investigated. The findings indicate that the gully terrain provides a natural advantage for the occurrence of disasters, and rainfall and multi-seam mining exacerbate the vulnerability of the regional geological environment, fostering a complex and protracted disaster chain within the gully area. Lastly, a comprehensive assessment of multi-disaster risks was conducted, and corresponding mitigation measures and recommendations were proposed for various risk stages.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Representing and assessing distributed situation awareness in multi-agency disaster response: A hypergraph-based methodology","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104747","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104747","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper introduces a novel hypergraph-based methodology for representing and assessing distributed situation awareness (DSA) in multi-agency disaster response. The fundamental ideas and motivations of our methodology stem from the following widely acknowledged understandings and phenomenons: (a) DSA’s representation should be approached from social, information and task dimensions; (b) DSA is one of the collective behaviors that emerge from the interactions; (c) the interactions in the real world are not pairwise. Our methodology delineates the collaboration, co-activation, and co-existence interactions among social, information, and task elements as higher-order interactions. We then construct these interaction systems using hypergraph-structured data derived from disaster response scenarios. Subsequently, these systems are encoded into hypergraphs, which are validated against our dataset and proven to be practical tools for depicting higher-order interaction patterns. Analytical techniques tailored to hypergraphs are applied, yielding insights intrinsic to hypergraphs regarding DSA in emergency response. Moreover, we integrate these interaction systems into a comprehensive framework that allows for the visualization and quantitative analyses of DSA evolution dynamics. We propose several indicators of evolution, discussing their trends and implications throughout the development of the emergency response. We locate the system deficiencies by revealing a mismatch between the positions of specific elements in the network and their functions. We also identify the saturation phase in the DSA evolution process.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141985344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ShakeAlert® and Schools: Incorporating Earthquake Early Warning in School Districts in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104735","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104735","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The U.S. Geological Survey-managed ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system is the first public alerting system in the United States to provide rapid mass notification when an earthquake is detected. Although public alert delivery via mobile phones began in California in 2019 followed by Oregon and Washington in 2021, little is known about what might drive widespread implementation in at-risk institutional settings such as schools. For example, there has been limited research on how to best integrate earthquake early warning into existing emergency plans, alert systems, and drills to keep school children and personnel safe in an earthquake. To address this gap, in the spring of 2022, every school district superintendent in Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington was sent a 15-minute online survey. The survey assessed superintendent knowledge of ShakeAlert, preferences for alert messaging, and perceived opportunities and barriers to incorporating the system in schools. The results showed that superintendents had low awareness of ShakeAlert but held positive perceptions of the system’s potential to enable life-saving protective actions. A major barrier to adoption included the perceived financial cost of implementing and maintaining the system. There were some statistically significant differences in state responses, and future research could investigate the specific needs of each state based on school district size and composition, hazard exposure, and earthquake experience. Together these findings can help inform targeted strategies to increase ShakeAlert adoption in schools and ultimately improve the safety of school children and staff during earthquakes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924004977/pdfft?md5=c07d44b0785e9a1394ae48bc59259e8d&pid=1-s2.0-S2212420924004977-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142006500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Critical Entities Resilience Assessment (CERA) to small-scale disasters","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Since 2022, there has been a significant increase in the importance of critical entities in terms of critical infrastructure protection. The adoption of the Critical Entities Resilience Directive must in EU member states ensure not only the protection of critical infrastructure, but also a sufficient resilience level of the entities themselves. This directive obliges critical entities to take measures to increase their resilience but does not provide any methodological support. A necessary starting point for fulfilling this obligation is knowledge of the current state of critical entities resilience to small-scale disasters. The results of the resilience assessment will then enable critical entities to identify vulnerabilities on the basis of which adequate technical, security and organisational measures can be defined. Therefore, this article presents an entirely new semi-quantitative method, CERA, which has been developed for the comprehensive assessment of entity and infrastructure resilience of critical entities. At the core of this method is a procedure that allows critical entities to self-assess their internal resilience through individual factors, which are defined in detail in this article. In order to facilitate the assessment process, the authors of the article have created the <span>CERA</span> Support Tool, which is supplementary material to this article. The Results section of the article also includes a presentation of a practical application example of the proposed procedure.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}