International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第7页

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) framework using XGBoost and SHAP for assessing urban fire risk based on spatial distribution features 基于空间分布特征的基于XGBoost和SHAP的可解释人工智能（XAI）框架评估城市火灾风险

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105798

Xin Yang , Yulu Hao , Hanyue Ding , Changshui Yu , Jia Liu , Linyao Li , Junmin Chen

{"title":"Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) framework using XGBoost and SHAP for assessing urban fire risk based on spatial distribution features","authors":"Xin Yang , Yulu Hao , Hanyue Ding , Changshui Yu , Jia Liu , Linyao Li , Junmin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105798","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105798","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban fire risks intensify owing to rapid urbanization, increasing population density, and concentrated infrastructure. Traditional fire risk assessment models, such as Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), often overlook spatial heterogeneity and lack interpretability. This study applied an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) framework integrating eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for predictive modeling and for feature attribution, respectively, to assess the urban fire risk in Qingyang District in Chengdu, China. A key challenge was to address the spatial complexity of fire risks and ensure model interpretability for decision-makers. To overcome this challenge, we integrated spatial autocorrelation metrics and kernel density analysis to analyze the spatial patterns of key features. The framework outperformed MGWR in terms of prediction accuracy, with R<sup>2</sup> values of 0.998 for fire occurrence and 0.935 for fire loss, compared to the 0.995 and 0.856 obtained for MGWR, respectively. The mean squared error was 4.447 for fire occurrence and 0.00027 for fire loss, while 10.297 and 0.00055 were obtained for MGWR, respectively. Notably, the SHAP values proved to be effective in explaining the spatial heterogeneity of urban fire risk features. The main contributions of this study are as follows: (1) the integration of XGBoost and SHAP for interpretable urban fire risk prediction, (2) the application of spatial analysis to enhance model transparency, and (3) the development of a framework that provides actionable, spatially explicit insights for urban safety planning. This study provides a data-driven tool for policymakers that offers quantitative guidance for urban fire risk mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105798"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling localized social vulnerability through probabilistic simulation: A case study in the Lisbon metropolitan area 基于概率模拟的局部社会脆弱性建模：以里斯本都市圈为例

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105792

Raul Oliva , Ana Paula Oliveira , José Barros

{"title":"Modeling localized social vulnerability through probabilistic simulation: A case study in the Lisbon metropolitan area","authors":"Raul Oliva , Ana Paula Oliveira , José Barros","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban communities are increasingly vulnerable to social and environmental risks, necessitating robust tools for assessing and addressing these vulnerabilities. This study develops a localized Social Vulnerability Index (locSVI) model using an established framework and applies it to two Portuguese case studies: Bairro Encosta da Luz and the parish of Santiago, both situated in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. The model integrates ten macro variables and context-specific weightings derived from resident survey data, supported by Monte Carlo simulations to validate and explore sensitivity in the results. Findings indicate that both communities fall into the “Very High” risk category, with key drivers including high population density, limited disaster preparedness, and in the case of Santiago, inadequate land use practices. The study highlights both the value and limitations of using composite indices for localized vulnerability assessment, emphasizing the need for community-based, data-driven interventions. Recommendations include enhancing civil protection mechanisms, improving land use planning, and promoting neighborhood cohesion. Despite methodological constraints related to sample size and data granularity, this work provides a scalable framework for guiding urban resilience strategies in similar contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105792"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Floodcraft: Game-based interactive learning environment using Minecraft for flood mitigation for K-12 education Floodcraft：基于游戏的互动学习环境，使用Minecraft为K-12教育减轻洪水

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105799

Eslim Emiroglu , Cori Ann Grant , Yusuf Sermet , Ibrahim Demir

{"title":"Floodcraft: Game-based interactive learning environment using Minecraft for flood mitigation for K-12 education","authors":"Eslim Emiroglu , Cori Ann Grant , Yusuf Sermet , Ibrahim Demir","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding poses a significant threat to communities worldwide, yet educational methods to teach flood mitigation strategies are often lacking in engagement and practical application. This study introduces Floodcraft, an open-source educational single-player game developed using the Minecraft platform to teach K-12 (primary and secondary school) students about flood mitigation methods interactively. The game encompasses four key tasks, each representing a distinct flood mitigation strategy: building floodwalls, sandbagging, wet floodproofing, and elevating structures. Players must complete these challenges successfully, demonstrating the proper application of each approach. The game and its tasks were implemented using a combination of Minecraft modding and commands. Floodcraft aims to engage younger generations in learning about flood risks and mitigation strategies through an enjoyable, hands-on experience. By leveraging Minecraft's platform, the game is intended to promote creativity and enjoyment in the learning process. Floodcraft is designed to contribute to the formation of resilient, environmentally conscious communities by encouraging children to participate in flood protection strategies from an early age. This educational tool is designed to help students to acquire practical knowledge about flood damage mitigation while fostering problem-solving skills.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105799"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advanced intensity measures for urban seismic-risk mapping: Evidence from a Megacity 城市地震风险测绘的先进烈度测量：来自特大城市的证据

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105791

Ali Rodríguez-Castellanos , Edén Bojórquez , Juan Bojórquez , Sonia E. Ruiz , Joel Carvajal , Herian Leyva , Omar Payán

{"title":"Advanced intensity measures for urban seismic-risk mapping: Evidence from a Megacity","authors":"Ali Rodríguez-Castellanos , Edén Bojórquez , Juan Bojórquez , Sonia E. Ruiz , Joel Carvajal , Herian Leyva , Omar Payán","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105791","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105791","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A series of spatial analyses were conducted to examine the correlation between seismic intensity—using both traditional and advanced intensity measures—and the structural damage observed in buildings affected by the 2017 Puebla earthquake in Mexico City. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were performed to generate seismic intensity maps based on <em>PGA</em> and <em>Sa</em>(<em>T</em><sub><em>1</em></sub>) and the advanced intensity measure <em>I</em><sub><em>Np</em></sub>, which incorporates period elongation due to nonlinear structural behavior. A recently released government database of damaged low- and mid-rise buildings was used in the analyses. Moran's Index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association revealed significant spatial autocorrelation between seismic demand and damage distribution. To evaluate which measure better reflects the observed damage, overlay and proximity analyses were applied. Results show that while both intensity measures perform similarly for short-period structures, <em>I</em><sub><em>Np</em></sub> outperforms <em>Sa</em>(<em>T</em><sub><em>1</em></sub>) for mid-rise buildings; particularly at intermediate-to-long vibration periods. These findings support the integration of <em>I</em><sub><em>Np</em></sub> into seismic risk mapping and mitigation strategies for urban environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105791"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From alert to action: Social latency of citizen response to Cell Broadcast warnings during the ES-Alert drill in Gran Canaria (Spain) 从警报到行动：西班牙大加那利岛ES-Alert演习期间公民对手机广播警报反应的社会延迟

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105794

Fernando Medina Morales, Pablo Máyer Suárez

{"title":"From alert to action: Social latency of citizen response to Cell Broadcast warnings during the ES-Alert drill in Gran Canaria (Spain)","authors":"Fernando Medina Morales, Pablo Máyer Suárez","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105794","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105794","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public alert systems based on Cell Broadcast technology are essential tools in emergency management, but their effectiveness depends not only on the technical speed in transmitting the message to the devices (technical latency) but also the time it takes for citizens to execute the recommended self-protection actions after receiving the messages (social latency). Cell broadcast is closely related to the so-called windows of opportunity, which are key factors in risk management. This study presents a pioneering evaluation of social latency in Spain during the ES-Alert drill conducted in September 2024 on the island of Gran Canaria (Spain), with a participation that exceeded 50,000 people. Through the analysis of timestamps associated with access to a digital survey sent with the alert, the citizen reaction times were determined. The results show that more than 70 % of the participants reacted in less than 10 min, with a median response time of 1 min and 12 s. Significantly faster responses were observed in urban and tourist municipalities compared to rural areas with lower technological penetration. Additionally, the system was positively rated by 91.4 % of the participants. Limitations include a ∼6 % response rate and the absence of device-level geocoordinates; location was self-reported at the municipality level only. The study highlights the importance of including social latency as a key metric in the evaluation of early warning systems, especially in insular and tourist contexts, and proposes the use of participatory strategies to improve risk communication and reinforce community resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105794"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

State, institutional and organizational capacities in disaster risk management 灾害风险管理方面的国家、机构和组织能力

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105777

Paula Sayeko Souza Oda , Victor Marchezini , Gabriela Spanghero Lotta , Adriano Mota Ferreira , André Luiz Martins Cotting , Karolina Gameiro Cota Dias , Olga Lucía Pacheco Calderon

{"title":"State, institutional and organizational capacities in disaster risk management","authors":"Paula Sayeko Souza Oda , Victor Marchezini , Gabriela Spanghero Lotta , Adriano Mota Ferreira , André Luiz Martins Cotting , Karolina Gameiro Cota Dias , Olga Lucía Pacheco Calderon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105777","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105777","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes how state, institutional, and organizational capacities are approached in disaster studies. It analyzed 404 articles published between 2012 and 2023. There has been a significant increase in publications on state, institutional, and organizational capacities in disaster risk management (DRM) since 2020, the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Of 404 articles analyzed, 74 directly addressed state, institutional, or organizational capacities in the context of DRM. The analysis revealed that most studies do not clearly define state, institutional, and organizational capacities. There is also an ambiguity in the distinction of these concepts, and lack of operational definitions, which can affect the development of DRM policies and practices. Capacities related to reactive emergency response actions are the most studied. The factors most frequently associated with these capacities include political characteristics, administrative skills, human and financial resources, social participation, and cooperation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105777"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144926325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Host community logistics and advanced preparation: Insights from wildfire evacuations in Alberta 主办社区后勤和先进的准备：从阿尔伯塔省野火疏散的见解

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105783

Douglas Yearwood , Tara McGee , Stephen Wong

{"title":"Host community logistics and advanced preparation: Insights from wildfire evacuations in Alberta","authors":"Douglas Yearwood , Tara McGee , Stephen Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the experiences of three host communities in Alberta involved in supporting and accommodating evacuees during the record 2023 wildfire season in Canada. Exploring host community service provision is a small but important part of a growing body of research that attempts to understand challenges faced by hosts when evacuations take place. Wildfire displacements can have long-lasting and deep social impacts, and the ability of host communities’ to implement socially aware and holistic emergency management plans and coordinate with key stakeholders is an important area of inquiry. When accommodating evacuees, hosts may face social services strains, uncertainties regarding cost recovery, and traffic and hospitality congestion. As such, this paper deploys case study methods seeking answers to three research questions stemming from the 2023 Alberta Wildfires: 1) How well prepared were communities to host evacuees?; 2) What challenges did they encounter?; and 3) What lessons can be learned from their experiences? Semi-structured interviews (n = 27) across the three cases of High Level, Whitecourt, and Hinton revealed important insights regarding community preparedness, community-specific challenges, and cross-cutting lessons learned. Major findings demonstrate the importance of intercommunity coordination, rapid needs assessments of incoming evacuees, planning efforts to provide adequate accommodations, and increased awareness around disaster relief programs and incident command training.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105783"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Addressing the social vulnerability gap in disaster risk perception 消除灾害风险认知方面的社会脆弱性差距

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105789

Samuel Rufat , Alexander Fekete , Eric Enderlin

{"title":"Addressing the social vulnerability gap in disaster risk perception","authors":"Samuel Rufat , Alexander Fekete , Eric Enderlin","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While practitioners are often prompt to call for more risk communication campaigns, the impacts of disadvantage and vulnerability are often overlooked. This is related to social vulnerability frameworks that often fail to explicitly address risk perception, whereas risk perception theories usually overlook social vulnerability. The resulting social vulnerability research gap might be self-reinforcing: empirical studies will find it difficult to derive vulnerability as relevant for perception from the current theories, while the fragmented empirical evidence thus far offers little support to connect risk perception theories and social vulnerability frameworks. This study addresses this gap by exploring the links between social vulnerability and risk perception, first in the most commonly used theoretical frameworks – including adaptive behaviour, then with original empirical data from France after a series of floods (n = 5,000). The novelty is to compare the explanatory power of social vulnerability with two common explanations of risk perception: previous hazard experience and risk information. The models implementing social vulnerability are overall explaining the larger effects. Furthermore, when taking social vulnerability into account, experience remains a robust explanation, whereas information and campaigns often lose their significance. One key implication is that policies aimed at reducing social vulnerability might be more effective than risk communication campaigns to increase awareness and preparedness. This underlines the necessity to systematically investigate the impacts of social vulnerability on risk perception in a larger variety of case studies, disaster stages, and hazard types.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105789"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145007626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A multidimensional discrete sampling method for deriving regional level seismic fragility and losses of RC existing buildings 基于多维离散抽样方法的区域级钢筋混凝土既有建筑地震易损性计算

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105788

Sergio Ruggieri, Andrea Nettis, Mirko Calò, Giuseppina Uva

{"title":"A multidimensional discrete sampling method for deriving regional level seismic fragility and losses of RC existing buildings","authors":"Sergio Ruggieri, Andrea Nettis, Mirko Calò, Giuseppina Uva","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper presents a framework for deriving regional seismic fragility and direct economic losses for reinforced concrete buildings based on a multidimensional discrete sampling of the available exposure data. The main challenge posed by the paper consists of considering multimodality and multidimensionality of exposure data, which at regional level assume high relevance, especially when data derive from different sources. Usually, the exposure model constitutes a high dimensional space and the approximation to a multidimensional continuous space could sensibly affect the accuracy of results (e.g., loss of modes, variability not captured). To comply with data heterogeneity, the proposed methodology consists of sampling data from one or more multidimensional discrete spaces through an iterative method to generate a Markov chain converging towards an approximated high dimensional joint distribution. To ensure a robust comparison between target and empirical distributions and to determine the sub-optimal number of representative samples, the Kullback-Leibler divergence is employed. Sampled data are used to automatically generate numerical models to investigate through nonlinear time history analyses. The results are post-processed to obtain overall fragility and losses metrics, according to the frequency of each configuration in the sample space. The proposed approach was tested on the case of Puglia region, Southern Italy, providing specific fragility and loss parameters according to the actual distribution of the available data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105788"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144917442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-objective Priority Planning for Dam breach Flood Emergency Evacuation Routes Based on an Improved NSGA-III Model 基于改进NSGA-III模型的溃坝洪水应急疏散路线多目标优先规划

IF 4.5 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105778

Kangjie Yang, Lin Wang, Yongsheng Yang, Jidong Wu

{"title":"Multi-objective Priority Planning for Dam breach Flood Emergency Evacuation Routes Based on an Improved NSGA-III Model","authors":"Kangjie Yang, Lin Wang, Yongsheng Yang, Jidong Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105778","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105778","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, global warming has intensified extreme precipitation events, significantly increasing the risk of dam breach floods. Once a dam breach occurs, the unleashed massive floodwaters can cause devastating damage to downstream populations. Therefore, simulating dam breach scenarios and formulating scientifically grounded emergency evacuation routes is of critical importance. However, existing research on evacuation route planning under extreme dam breach flood scenarios remains limited, especially in terms of evacuation optimization strategies that differentiate by risk level. This study employs the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model to simulate dam breach floods, delineate flood affected zones, and classify them into high-, medium-, and low-priority areas based on impact severity to facilitate hierarchical evacuation planning. The approach begins by precomputing and caching the shortest evacuation paths for all affected areas using the Dijkstra algorithm. A K-means clustering initialization is then applied to preferentially assign evacuation zones to nearby shelters. Following the generation of initial multi-objective solutions via NSGA-III, a heuristic refinement strategy is introduced to further optimize evacuation paths, ensuring that populations in high-priority areas are evacuated more efficiently. To address sudden changes in shelter capacity, a secondary evacuation reassignment algorithm based on preprocessed path data is introduced, allowing for adaptive and flexible adjustment of evacuation plans. The proposed model significantly enhances evacuation efficiency and practical emergency response capacity, particularly improving the protection and dispatch of populations in high-risk areas. The findings provide valuable decision-making support for dam breach disaster emergency management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105778"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0