International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Assessing the vulnerability of Cape Coral, Florida, to sea level rise using principal component analysis (2020–2050)","authors":"Jawata A. Saba ,&nbsp;Kevin Ash ,&nbsp;Darrell Napton","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sea level rise is a consequence of global climate change that has been affecting U.S. coasts with floods and storm surges. Florida is highly vulnerable because it has low-lying topography and coastlines on both the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. The City of Cape Coral, southwest Florida, has 400 miles of canals that provide waterfront property to the residents. Most of the canals are navigable, and accessible to the Gulf of Mexico. The city is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise because of its canals, site between the Matlacha Pass and the Caloosahatchee River, and development that has occurred in hazard prone areas. In this research, we used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea Level Rise Calculator tool for three sea level rise scenarios for Cape Coral from 2020 to 2050 and created a Cape Coral Vulnerability Index (CCVI) using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). PCA reduced 25 variables to six factors that explained 78 % of the variance in the data. The study revealed that the whole city has a medium to high vulnerability to sea level rise induced coastal flooding. Projected flooding showed the vulnerable areas for future flooding, whereas CCVI identified the vulnerable populations and their locations in the city. One important finding is that both economically stable and poor people are vulnerable in Cape Coral. This research has significant implications in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. It can act as a guideline for the city for disaster management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105014"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding protest intentions: The influence of belief systems post-earthquake tragedies","authors":"Zafer Ozkan","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how belief systems—free will, fatalistic determinism, and scientific determinism—are associated with individuals' intentions to engage in protest, focusing on the context of the 2023 earthquakes in Southeastern Türkiye. These earthquakes, with magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, caused severe damage and loss of life, exacerbated by issues of corruption and neglect. Drawing on collective action research, the study examines how anger and participative efficacy beliefs are linked to these belief systems and their potential role in protest intentions. The findings suggest that individuals who endorse fatalistic determinism report lower protest intentions, with anger playing a mediating role in this relationship. Scientific determinism shows a weak association with higher protest intentions, mediated by anger. Belief in free will is associated with increased protest intentions, partially through participative efficacy beliefs. The case of Türkiye, with its socio-political context and the large-scale devastation following the earthquakes, provides a meaningful backdrop for understanding how belief systems may shape protest motivations. These results offer insights into the different emotional and cognitive processes that link belief systems to protest intentions in crisis situations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105031"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of socially sustainable transitional shelter design in the Philippines","authors":"Cheryl Lyne C. Roxas ,&nbsp;Rhem Leoric C. Dela Cruz ,&nbsp;John Paul Q. De Pedro ,&nbsp;Breman M. Tamani ,&nbsp;Jonathan R. Dungca ,&nbsp;Bernardo A. Lejano ,&nbsp;Jason Maximino C. Ongpeng","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Philippines, due to its geographical location, is frequented by catastrophes, causing widespread damage associated with strong typhoons and seismic events. Many residences are devastated, leaving people isolated and exposed to various risks. Hence, there is a need to efficiently furnish the displaced population with durable transitional shelters to ensure their safety and security. However, the structures' sustainability was a crucial concern due to their quick production, brief service life, and direct impact on people. The three core pillars of sustainability are economic, environmental, and social; wherein, the social sustainability remains underexplored. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to develop a socially sustainable transitional shelter design that can accommodate disaster victims’ recovery. By interviewing relevant organizations and reviewing existing standards, three conceptual designs were produced: the square (STS), rectangular (RTS), and hexagonal (HTS) transitional shelters. These designs were evaluated based on selected quantifiable parameters of social sustainability, including construction time, thermal comfort, and lighting, recognizing that this research aims to advance the evolving field of socially sustainable transitional shelter design in the absence of a standardized framework. Using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach, the investigation revealed that the HTS is the most socially sustainable transitional shelter scheme based on the criteria employed. However, this finding is heavily influenced by the established constraints, such as the assumptions for this study; thus, the results of this study could further be corroborated by considering other scenarios in future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105026"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The contributions of hazard and exposure to flood risk in Shenzhen city","authors":"Siqi Deng ,&nbsp;Dongsheng Zhao ,&nbsp;Ziwei Chen ,&nbsp;Jiacheng Zhang ,&nbsp;Ke Wang ,&nbsp;Du Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flood risk strongly depends on the hazard and the exposure of people and assets. With the continuous growth of the urban population, exposure is contributing more and more to urban flood risk. Meanwhile, climate warming has led to frequent extreme precipitation events, resulting in severe flood hazards in cities. However, the individual contributions of hazard and exposure to flood risk remain unclear, hindering effective risk reduction strategies in metropolitan areas. This study examines the contributions of pluvial flood hazard and population exposure to the population mortality risk, as well as the contributions of pluvial flood hazard and urban built-up area exposure to the economic loss risk in the Shenzhen metropolitan area. The results indicate that the concentration of population and assets in central Shenzhen increases the pluvial flood risk. With almost the same water depth, Longgang, Longhua, and Luohu districts exhibit higher death tolls and asset losses compared to the Guangming district. Additionally, changes in pluvial flood hazard also significantly contribute to the variation in economic loss risk, which could explain up to 84 % of the observed fluctuations. With the existing distribution of population and urban built-up areas, pluvial flood risk in Shenzhen is expected to increase in the future as extreme precipitation intensifies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105011"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Before and after disaster: Homeowner protective actions in a changing climate","authors":"Rachel Hamburger ,&nbsp;Tracy Kijewski-Correa ,&nbsp;Debra Javeline","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Communities face a growing threat from increasingly severe weather events driven by a changing climate. The threat is especially acute in US coastal communities where current regulations have proven ineffective in stemming mounting hurricane losses. Absent meaningful regulatory reforms, climate adaptation in coastal zones will largely depend on the voluntary actions of homeowners. We introduce a novel research methodology to study those actions in a post-hurricane landscape where damage necessitates reconstruction decisions. The methodology includes (1) a modular survey instrument robust enough to document diverse damage experiences and recovery journeys, (2) indices that measure homeowner protective actions over time and holistic damage exposure, and (3) a sampling strategy that uses secondary data to target households likely to be engaged in recovery actions, maximizing yields in settings characterized by low response rates. The efficacy of this research methodology is demonstrated through the study of 373 homeowners in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana, a community still recovering from Hurricane Laura. On average, homeowners invested in protection before the storm, increased that protection level after the storm, and intend to continue to invest in protections for their homes. However, despite homeowners’ promising actions, homes in Calcasieu Parish achieve at best half of the measures necessary to stem the losses in future hurricanes, underscoring the need for policies that better incentivize and message whole-house climate adaptation strategies. Future research aims to use the data and indices to identify factors with greatest potential to motivate these whole-house adaptations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105006"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disaster risk preparedness of households in the Caribbean","authors":"Boaz Anglade,&nbsp;Emilia Cucagna,&nbsp;Jacobus de Hoop,&nbsp;Anna Luisa Paffhausen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104956","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104956","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Preparing for – and responding to – disasters requires a people-centered approach and a strong understanding of households' ability to cope with shocks. Relying on novel household survey data, this paper examines the ability of households in the Caribbean to cope with disasters caused by natural hazards. The analysis sheds light on disaster preparedness in five “data deprived” countries: Belize, Dominica, Haiti, Saint Lucia, and Suriname. The analysis points to a clear income gradient in possession of emergency supplies needed to cope with disasters. This gradient can be observed at both the country and household levels. In contrast, no such income gradient is observed for other key elements of preparation for disasters: community disaster management systems and discussion of risk mitigation strategies within households (both of which are common in the Caribbean hurricane belt). There is substantial variation in preparedness to cope with disasters across sociodemographic groups, as households with less educated heads, with children, and residing in rural areas are generally less able to handle disasters. All in all, a large share of households in all five countries indicates that they are not prepared to cope with a natural disaster. The COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on disaster risk preparedness, primarily due to households’ deteriorating financial circumstances.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 104956"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Searching for emergency shelters in rural China: A systematic review of policies and literature","authors":"Yajie Zeng ,&nbsp;Baofeng Di ,&nbsp;Wen He ,&nbsp;Shaolin Wu ,&nbsp;Jierui Li ,&nbsp;Andreas Nienkötter ,&nbsp;Ou Li ,&nbsp;Qiaoqiao Peng ,&nbsp;Xiangrui Meng","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emergency shelters are commonly utilized as a means of disaster adaptation. Rural China is vulnerable to disasters. While a considerable amount of practical and theoretical work has been conducted regarding urban emergency shelters in China, a comprehensive assessment of the challenges faced by rural communities is lacking. Our systematic review concerning rural emergency shelters (RESs) identified 45 policies and 56 studies. We answered four main questions: 1) What are the top-level approaches for RESs in national policy? 2) How to plan and design RESs? 3) What is the status of RES implementation? 4) How can stakeholders engage in the RES process? To enhance rural resilience, the current limitations were summarized: neglect of rural special needs; imitation of urban planning and design; ambiguity in the implementation of RESs; and one-sided process of stakeholder engagement. This review can help to lay the groundwork for practices to better promote sustainable rural development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105017"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simulating and visualising indoor seismic damage: A systematic literature review","authors":"Noushin Naraghi ,&nbsp;Zhenan Feng ,&nbsp;Ruggiero Lovreglio ,&nbsp;V. Vishnupriya ,&nbsp;Suzanne Wilkinson ,&nbsp;Abdollah Baghaei Daemei","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104979","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104979","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Earthquakes pose a significant risk to human lives because they can cause severe damage to structural and non-structural components of buildings, thereby harming building occupants. Accordingly, reducing earthquakes’ social, economic and environmental losses requires significant effort. Indoor seismic damage, which refers to damage caused by earthquakes inside buildings, such as falling objects, broken furniture and collapsed walls, is especially important for assessment and mitigation because it directly affects building occupants. Therefore, understanding and mitigating indoor seismic damage have become necessary. Many damage assessment tools have been introduced and adopted to assess the impact of earthquakes on buildings. Digital technologies can be essential in simulating and visualising earthquake damage, providing realistic, interactive and immersive experiences for different purposes and stakeholders. This systematic literature review critically aims to investigate existing approaches and methods for simulating and visualising indoor seismic damage to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of research, identify knowledge gaps and offer insights into the future. Thus, a conceptual framework was developed, which integrates essential aspects, including methods and tools, to develop seismic damage simulation and visualisation. This objective was achieved by systematically reviewing 20 articles published between 2017 and 2023 to answer several research questions on the type of application, software, interoperability challenges and hardware adopted to visualise the damages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 104979"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood risk assessment of coastal cities based on GCW_ISODATA and explainable artificial intelligence methods","authors":"Yawen Zang ,&nbsp;Huimin Wang ,&nbsp;Zhenzhen Liu ,&nbsp;Jing Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Scientific and accurate assessment of risk influencing factors are crucial for flood risk management. This paper aims to propose a new comprehensive framework for flood risk assessment in coastal cities. Firstly, considering the flood characteristics of coastal cities and the impact of floods on urban spatial structure, a flood risk assessment indicator system for coastal cities was established. Secondly, combining game combination weighting and Iterative self-organizing data analysis technique algorithm (GCW_ISODATA) for flood risk assessment. Finally, based on the explainable machine learning techniques, the sensitivity of indicators to flood risk was analyzed. The results indicated that coastal floods are more destructive than rainfall and river floods. Moreover, the indicator weighting and threshold division have a direct impact on the rationality of flood risk, GCW_ISODATA method performs well in Accuracy, F1 score, and AUC, especially with the highest AUC among all methods. Entropy weight method and GCW are significantly superior to Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, and ISODATA method usually performs better than the K-Means and Natural Break method. Furthermore, the sensitivity of indicators to flood risk reveals that differences in economic, social, and environmental characteristics across regions affect the actual impact of these indicators, leading to the sensitivity of the same indicator to flood risk varies significantly across different regions. It is expected that the framework proposed in this study can be used to explore flood risk impact on other coastal cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105025"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk assessment of flash flood under climate and land use and land cover change in Tianshan Mountains, China","authors":"Biao Zhang ,&nbsp;Guotao Zhang ,&nbsp;Haiyan Fang ,&nbsp;Shufang Wu ,&nbsp;Chaoyue Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tianshan Mountains in China (CTM) is one of the flash flood-prone areas worldwide, constraining economic development and threatening human safety. We assessed the short-term and long-term future flash flood risk in CTM using a multi-criteria model combined with future climate and Land use and land cover (LULC). The short-term risk assessment results indicated that moderate, high, and extremely high risk areas were mainly located in the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountain, the southern Junggar Basin, and the northern Tarim Basin, accounting for about 10 % of the total area. The areas classified as high and extremely high risk were distributed in Ili (10,100 km²), Changji (4838 km²), Bortala (1783 km²), and Urumqi (1505 km²). The spatial distributions of future long-term and short-term flash flood risk are similar. There will be an increase in the flash flood risk from 2020 to 2030, mainly in Ili, Changji, and Hami. The flash flood risk in the CTM will decrease under different scenarios from 2030 to 2070. Historical flash flood data from the 1940s to the 2010s indicated that the results of the risk assessment are reasonable. Abundant precipitation from the westerly circulation and the trumpet-shaped topography drove the flash floods in Bortala-shuanghe(BS), Ili, Changji (west), and Urumqi-wujiaqv(UW). Snowmelt flash floods are another important flash flood type in Changji (West) and UW. The dense water system and the undulating terrain led to rainstorm flash floods in high mountainous areas of Aksu and Kashgar, Hami, Kizilsu, and Changji (east). Cultivated land, population, and roads are important risk receptors. The oases, water resource constraints, and the urban scale discontinuity led to the spatial displacement between hazard and risk. The flash flood risk change in the future is more closely related to LUCC than climate change. This study provides support for flash flood risk assessment and management in CTM and other arid inland areas under changed climate and LULC.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"115 ","pages":"Article 105019"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142746260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}