International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Prevalence and predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder among survivors of the 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye: The case of a temporary camp","authors":"Edip Kaya ,&nbsp;Ebru Inal Onal ,&nbsp;Sultanay Fatih ,&nbsp;Onur Güler","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104976","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104976","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aimed to evaluate the potential prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among survivors of the 2023 Türkiye earthquakes and determine the factors linked to the severity of PTSD. The cross-sectional study was conducted in a temporary camp in Hatay between January 27 and February 2, 2024, approximately one year after the earthquakes. Two researchers visited the camp and offered participation to all the adults who met the study criteria. A total of 412 adults agreed to participate in the study and completed the questionnaire. A survey was used to gather information on various variables related to the context before, during, and after an earthquake. In addition, the Post-Traumatic Diagnostic Scale and the Brief Resilience Scale were used to measure PTSD and resilience, respectively. The screening scale indicated that 17.5 % of participants met the criteria for probable “severe” and 36.2 % met the criteria for probable “moderate to severe” PTSD, approximately 12 months post-earthquake. Multiple linear regression analyses revealed that PTSD was predicted by various factors in the within-, pre-, and post-earthquake periods. Among pre-earthquake variables, sex (β = 0.100, p &lt; 0.05) and history of psychiatric illness (β = 0.098, p &lt; 0.01) predict PTSD. Among within-earthquake variables, severity of earthquake exposure (β = 0.190, p &lt; 0.001) predicted PTSD. Among post-earthquake variables, resilience (β = −0.378, p &lt; 0.001) was negatively associated with severity of PTSD. These findings underscore the significance of considering multiple factors when comprehending and addressing PTSD in the aftermath of a natural disaster.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104976"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive capacity of homeowners in Ghana to improve technical and social flood resilience","authors":"Helene Meyer ,&nbsp;Georg Johann ,&nbsp;Mariele Evers","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing flood resilience involves the implementation of structural and non-structural measures by homeowners to comprehend adaptive capacity to the impacts to flood events. Analyzing homeowners' technical and social capacity creates more knowledge and helps to understand how prepared a system is and what specific actions should be taken. This is the basis for recommending appropriate adaptation measures and increasing resilience. The study identifies homeowners' social and technical capacity aspects in Ghana, West Africa, to effectively improve their resilience. Ghana is particularly vulnerable to flooding, and its flood risk management (FRM) strategy is gradually evolving to encompass a greater role for homeowners. To gain insight into the factors influencing homeowners' capacity to implement measures, a quantitative research design comprising a household survey was employed in three study areas (Accra, Kumasi, and White Volta) with 1168 participating homeowners. The results offered insights into the high risk perception and respondents’ motivation, the significant challenges they face in coping with flood events, their limited knowledge of effective measures, and the heterogeneous implementation barriers and support needs across the region. Based on these findings, this paper outlines the practical implications, actionable steps, and sustainable strategies that can be employed with the FLOODLABEL_GHANA tool for resilience improvement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104953"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A participatory foresight approach in disaster risk management: The multi-risk storylines","authors":"Claudio Marciano ,&nbsp;Antonella Peresan ,&nbsp;Andrea Pirni ,&nbsp;Massimiliano Pittore ,&nbsp;Gabriella Tocchi ,&nbsp;Anna Maria Zaccaria","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104972","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104972","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104972"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk assessment of urban infrastructure vulnerability to meteorological disasters: A case study of Dongguan, China","authors":"Fan Li ,&nbsp;Yan Li ,&nbsp;Matteo Rubinato ,&nbsp;Yu Zheng ,&nbsp;Tao Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104943","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104943","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective forecasting and response to meteorological hazards are crucial for safeguarding life, property, and supporting sustainable socioeconomic development. With the rising frequency and severity of meteorological hazards worldwide, this study proposes an enhanced risk assessment framework for urban infrastructure exposed to extreme weather events, with a focus on cascading impacts to critical services such as electricity, communication, and transportation networks (roads and subways). A disaster-loss model is developed to quantify infrastructure vulnerability at various spatial and temporal scales under heavy rainfall conditions, accounting for secondary effects. The model's performance is validated through empirical analysis of a 15-year rainfall event in Dongguan City, China, occurring from September 7–8, 2023. Results indicate the model's ability to predict real-event outcomes with approximately 70% accuracy. This model offers valuable insights for disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, aiding decision-makers in optimizing emergency resource allocation, enhancing disaster response efficiency, and issuing timely public risk warnings to minimize losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104943"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disaster risk reduction education (DRRE) in elementary education of Pakistan: Challenges and scaling up endeavours","authors":"Ashfaq Ahmad Shah ,&nbsp;Nasir Abbas Khan ,&nbsp;Wahid Ullah ,&nbsp;Abid Khan ,&nbsp;Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ,&nbsp;Ayat Ullah ,&nbsp;Avianto Amri","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104962","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster Risk Reduction Education (DRRE) plays a crucial role in building community resilience by equipping children with the knowledge and skills needed to respond to disasters and reduce vulnerabilities. School children are not only among the most vulnerable to disaster impacts but also serve as important agents of change by sharing DRR knowledge with their families and communities. Over the past decade, educational initiatives in Pakistan have gained momentum to mitigate disaster-related damages and foster resilience. This approach has been supported by numerous studies highlighting its effectiveness in achieving positive results. This study examines the factors that can either aid or impede the expansion of disaster risk reduction education for primary school students in four districts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. The study employed a multi-informant mixed-method approach that gathered data from multiple sources, including elementary school children, school personnel, and child-centered disaster risk reduction non-governmental organizations members. Many teachers in the study believed they could involve children in disaster preparedness and thought disaster risk reduction education should be taught in schools. The study identified six significant challenges (policy blueprint for DRR education, cognizance and availability of DRR educational materials, teacher’s competence to improve learning outcomes, strengthening school partnerships, allocating resources for optimal results, and giving children a voice) and proposed several policies recommendations for making progress. Although these issues may be prevalent in developing and developed nations, the suggested strategies may have applicability beyond the geographic confines of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104962"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do regional disaster risks determine insurance spending? Evidence from organised manufacturing factories in India","authors":"Sohini Bhowmik,&nbsp;Gopal Krishna Roy","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Insurance is a crucial risk management tool for firms. This paper examines the factors determining insurance expenditure among organised manufacturing factories in India, focusing on the role of regional disaster risks. We gather information on insurance expenditure and other factory-level factors by utilizing unit-level data from the Annual Survey of Industries for 2018–19. We integrate this data with the spatial disaster risks index across Indian states, obtained from the <em>Disaster Risks and Resilience in India</em> report by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The state-level disaster risk index captures the regional risk environment that influences insurance expenditure at the factory level, even after accounting for factory-specific factors. We test various hypotheses on the determinants of factory-level insurance expenditure using the ordinary least squares method in a multiple linear regression framework. Given that the decision to spend on insurance reflects a corner solution problem, with a substantial share of factories reporting zero expenditure while others incur strictly positive amounts, we employ Tobit and Cragg's hurdle models to ensure robustness. Our results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between the location-based spatial disaster risks index and factory-level insurance expenditure. Factories located in a state with higher disaster risks spend significantly more on insurance expenditure. Among other factory-level factors, our findings indicate that factors such as gross value added, subsidies, the value of imported inputs, export share, type of organisation, age, the value of plant and machinery, and depreciation significantly affect insurance expenditure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104964"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tailings storage facilities in China: Historical failure incidents, existing status, and database-driven quantitative risk assessment","authors":"Chenxu Su ,&nbsp;Nahyan M. Rana ,&nbsp;Stephen G. Evans ,&nbsp;Bijiao Wang ,&nbsp;Shuai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tailings storage facility (TSF) failures in China have historically resulted in downstream consequences, including fatalities, economic harm, and environmental contamination. However, the nation-wide documentation on existing TSFs is incomplete, and the magnitude-frequency statistics of the failures are poorly quantified. These gaps have impeded ongoing efforts of risk assessment and mitigation. This study collates and analyzes new databases on historical TSF failures and existing TSFs in China. We report 143 TSF failures in China over the period 1957–2023, which exceeds the number (∼20) reported in previous studies. Magnitude-frequency statistics indicate that the mean return period for TSF failures in China with at least 10 fatalities is ∼5 years, while for those with released volumes &gt;1 million m³ is ∼16 years. Our review confirms that there are at least 14,217 existing TSFs in China; therefore, the cumulative failure rate of TSFs in China is estimated to be ∼1 %. We supply a database of 1853 TSFs that lists the statistics such as storage volume and dam height. Using these datasets along with downstream demographic statistics, we undertake a regional risk assessment for Jilin Province, which identifies 11 TSFs with intolerable risks. Among these, the most critical TSF poses a potential loss of 175 lives. Our findings provide the most comprehensive picture of TSFs in China to date. We anticipate that this study will advance tailings disclosure practices in China and support screening-level risk assessments by provincial regulators to help prioritize community engagement and risk mitigation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104973"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing societal resilience through the whole-of-society approach to crisis preparedness: Complex adaptive systems perspective – The case of Finland","authors":"Aino Ruggiero,&nbsp;Wojciech D. Piotrowicz,&nbsp;Lijo John","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study adopts a systemic view to investigate societal resilience within the whole-of-society framework for crisis preparedness, focusing on best practices, challenges, and solutions. Finland serves as the case study due to its pioneering position in crisis preparedness and its adoption of a comprehensive preparedness model that encompasses relationships and interactions among diverse stakeholders. In this study, the Finnish preparedness system is illustrated and analysed through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS). Data are collected through interviews with security actors representing different stakeholder groups, including civil society, businesses, and the public sector. An interpretative approach synthesises insights from literature, reports, and stakeholder interactions to co-create knowledge. The analysis covers the CAS tenets of context, relational constitution, adaptive capacity, emergence, and openness. The study presents an exploratory model anchored in CAS theory, incorporating key practices, processes, and adaptation loops integral to societal resilience from a systemic perspective in the Finnish context. From a theoretical point of view, this study contributes to CAS theory by exploring the role of context as a slow-changing variable, which is often considered a constant in CAS. Furthermore, while emergent behaviour is a critical component of CAS, most studies explore the emergent behaviour of a system within a short time span. However, the findings of this study highlight the importance of long-term emergent behaviour in addition to short-term behaviour. From a practical standpoint, this study not only explores best practices but also identifies the challenges of the Finnish system and provides a benchmark for other countries to develop their own crisis preparedness. However, replicating the system elsewhere may be challenging due to certain unique contextual factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104944"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating climate change adaptation strategies among informal residents in Kumasi through the lenses of the social action and social control theories","authors":"Michael Osei Asibey ,&nbsp;Vivian Yeboah","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The urban poor in informal settlements in Ghana remain exposed and vulnerable to climate-induced hazards. Their exclusion from official adaptation interventions, undeniably, calls for social mechanisms to enable them to adapt to climate change hazards such as heatwaves and floods. Individuals may contribute to exacerbating climate-induced hazards or employ adaptation measures as a common practice or due to their connectedness to a group, as hypothesised by the social action and social control theories, respectively. There is, however, no known study on the empirical and theoretical contributions of these theories to influencing climate change adaptation efforts in urban Africa. At best, studies have looked at the importance of individual and community skills, and assets to adapting to climate change hazards. The study is underpinned by the social action and social control theories to explore how elements of the theories shape hazard reduction and adaptation efforts. 367 household interviews and, four focus group discussions were conducted in two of Kumasi's largest informal settlements – Aboabo and Asawase – in addition to seven relevant agency interviews. We found that most households employed several adaptation measures because they saw other residents do the same which was confirmed by the Chi-square test statistic (χ2 = 4.968, p &lt; 0.000) and as hypothesised by the social action theory. Similarly, as hypothesised by the social control theory, we also found differences in the adaptation measures employed by households belonging to identified environment-related groups (χ2 = 21.465, p &lt; 0.001). This was largely because among other activities, the education and training exercises undertaken by the groups influenced the knowledge levels of members about climate change hazards and adaptation measures. The groups offer emotional, monetary, material, and practical support to cope within the short-term; first to the members, and the general residents, who are affected by disasters. Generally, adopted measures to reduce adverse impacts and build adaptation were unsustainable. This study is among few studies that demonstrate the contribution of the social action and social control theories to managing and adapting to climate change and its associated impacts in African cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104963"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Normative learning generates behaviour change: The case of drowning prevention","authors":"Brian R. Cook ,&nbsp;Peter Kamstra ,&nbsp;Nicholas Harrigan ,&nbsp;Jasmin Lawes ,&nbsp;Robert Brander ,&nbsp;James Bond ,&nbsp;Tom Kompas","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drowning is a risk governance issue of global significance. The majority of coastal drownings occur at unpatrolled beaches. Interventions designed to influence public behaviours are measured in terms of ‘awareness raised’ and ‘intentions to act’ rather than actual ‘behaviours adopted’. As a result, up-scaling impacts defaults to the dubious assumption that the communication of information can raise societal-scale awareness that will result in societal-scale behaviour change. No interventions into coastal drowning prevention, though, have determined the impacts of raised awareness on actual behaviours and, as a result, interventions are presently blind to whether changed behaviours ‘spillover’ to unpatrolled locations; further, no research has applied mixed methods to explain the mechanisms of behaviour changes or spillover effects. We conducted an intervention that combines a 20-min safety lesson with a meaningful engagement involving active reflection. This intervention was paired with a control that involved the engagement only. The study was conducted at Lorne, Australia, and involved 12 lessons with approximately 600 participants; 4–6 months later, participants were contacted to measure impact. After screening for those who had returned to a beach and had had opportunity to alter their behaviours, statistical modelling shows that, relative to the control, the intervention significantly increased the number of risk mitigation behaviours adopted, the number of non-participants told, and the number of behaviour changes adopted at unpatrolled beaches. The major impact pathway of the intervention was normative learning rather than awareness raising. Qualitative analysis explains how the intervention supported normative learning (i.e., through reflection) and the mechanisms through which normative learning supported behaviour change (i.e., self-efficacy and altered worldview). We demonstrate a participatory methodology and innovative mixed-methods approach that results in actual behaviour changes that spillover to non-participants and to the locations where drownings concentrate. More broadly, the implications challenge awareness raising as the basis of risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104942"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}