International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Study on the propagation characteristics of shockwave in dense crowd in corner passage","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Crowd shockwaves are prone to occur when evacuating dense crowds, especially in areas with corner passages, leading to congestion and accidents. The characteristics of shockwaves in corner passages need further exploration. This study used AnyLogic software based on the social force model to construct scenarios. The propagation mechanism of crowd shockwaves was revealed through simulation analysis of the changes in wave amplitude, duration, and propagation velocity of crowd density waves under different corner angles (0–90°). It was found that a 45° corner passage has advantages compared to other corner passages for evacuation. At higher desired velocities, pedestrians form a bottleneck-like area at the corner of the passage, resulting in crowd shockwaves. Because of social forces, congestion occurs primarily in the corner area. To alleviate this pressure, pedestrians actively adjust the distance between themselves and others. The time interval between the two shockwaves decreases as the desired velocity increases. The propagation time of crowd shockwaves before the corner is generally more significant than the duration after the corner. This study could guide the elimination or reduction of crowd shockwaves, improving pedestrians' evacuation efficiency and safety in evacuation passages.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142232088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood risk awareness and transportation mode choice in communities with varying flooding frequencies: The cases of Bozkurt, Kastamonu, Turkey and Malanday, Marikina, Philippines","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the post-flood transportation mode choices (TMC) of communities exposed to floods of varying frequencies, focusing on Bozkurt, Turkey, recently afflicted by a major flood, and Malanday, Philippines, which endures an average of 10 floods annually. The study considers 17 factors affecting TMC, including age, occupation, income, housing type, flood experience, education level, changes in travel time, primary transportation mode, duration of residence, gender, marital status, relocation status, personal losses, disruption of daily activities, time to return to routine, satisfaction with road maintenance, and satisfaction with flood measures. Data were collected through surveys and analysed using regression analysis.</p><p>The findings indicate that personal and cultural characteristics, and flood frequency, have limited effects on TMC. The most impactful factors on post-flood TMC are changes in travel time (42.11 %), personal losses (23.75 %), and satisfaction with road maintenance (11.30 %). The study demonstrates that flood risk awareness is directly related to education level and flood experience. In Malanday, where 84 % of the population are university or high school graduates, floods are regarded as routine events. In contrast, in Bozkurt, where only 37 % have similar education levels, the community experienced panic under flood conditions, adversely affecting decision-making processes.</p><p>The research provides insights into how communities exposed to floods adjust their TMC, offering essential information for mitigating flood risks and increasing flood awareness. Moreover, the findings deliver suggestive information for local governments and planners in developing more effective flood management and transportation planning strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142228711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"VOLCANBOX: A software platform for volcanic hazard assessment","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104817","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Volcanic eruptions have an intrinsic multi-hazard nature, in which a variety of volcanic products (lava flows, fallout, lahars, and pyroclastic flows) and associated hazards (seismic shocks, landslides, tsunamis, or floods) may interact and impact sequentially. Volcanic hazard assessment relies on probabilistic approaches based on the past eruptive history, from which scientists identify eruptive scenarios and their expected recurrence. However, not enough attempts have yet been made to address volcanic hazard assessment in a systematic way, based on principles that may be equally applicable to different volcanoes and volcanic zones regardless of their particular nature. Hence, we present VOLCANBOX, a new multiplatform (GNU/Linux, MacOS, Windows) system designed to conduct long-and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and risk analysis in a systematic and rational manner, aimed at reducing volcanic risk by anticipating future eruptions. VOLCANBOX includes several sets of software tools designed to evaluate long and short-term volcanic hazards, to conduct vulnerability analysis, and to assist decision-makers during the management of a volcanic crisis. VOLCANBOX can be implemented before an emergency, in order to identify optimum mitigating actions and how these may have to be adapted as new information is obtained. VOLCANBOX is aimed at experts in volcanic hazard and risk assessment and management and is designed to facilitate the interaction and cooperation between scientists, policy makers and civil protection agencies to anticipate volcanic disasters in a timely manner, by quantifying volcanic hazards, understanding volcanic unrest, forecasting volcanic eruptions, and identifying the most probable scenarios in a simple and clear manner.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242092400579X/pdfft?md5=9f5be7f32db7d18244a6af09b6f832d5&pid=1-s2.0-S221242092400579X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142228710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effectiveness of a disaster preparedness educational intervention for wheelchair users: A pilot study","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><p>This pilot study aimed to test the effectiveness of disaster preparedness education for wheelchair users and improve their self-management skills during emergencies.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>A pre-post self-controlled experimental study was conducted. The intervention included one educational session covering the following: (1) Knowledge about local frequent disasters,. (2) Development of a tailored disaster preparedness plan for wheelchair users. (3) Preparation of a disaster kit. The methods included lectures, discussions, and scenario responses to disasters. Disaster preparedness knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors were assessed before, after and one month follw-up intervention.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>20 wheelchair users with average age of 41.2 ± 7.68. Most of them reported proficiency in wheelchair using. The educational intervention significantly improved knowledge and attitude scores post-intervention, with knowledge scores rising from 8.00 ± 2.25 to 13.85 ± 0.37 and attitude scores from 47.05 ± 6.45 to 52.30 ± 3.87. At the one-month follow-up, there was a slight regression in knowledge(11.00 ± 1.65) and attitude scores(50.70 ± 3.94) but still significantly higher than pre-intervention levels. Behavior scores were assessed only at pre and follow-up measurement points, with an increasing trend from 3.60 ± 1.93 to 8.60 ± 2.89, indicating sustained improvement in disaster preparedness behaviors. The study highlights the need for sustainable intervention methods due to the observed decline in knowledge retention and attitude over time.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The tailored disaster preparedness education for wheelchair users significantly improved their knowledge, fostered positive attitudes, and encouraged proactive behaviors in response to disasters. To sustain these positive outcomes, ongoing educational reinforcement and periodic updates are essential, especially for vulnerable populations like wheelchair users.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924005740/pdfft?md5=a90221b97e93c39c03bf2aec8475cbef&pid=1-s2.0-S2212420924005740-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142161718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mining disaster in Brumadinho (Brazil): Social vulnerability from the perspective of the fisherman community","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>On January 25, 2019, the state of Minas Gerais (MG) in Brazil witnessed yet another disaster involving the collapse of a mining tailings dam. The disaster occurred in the municipality of Brumadinho, belonging to VALE S.A. One of the activities most affected by the disaster was fishing, which suffered from the immediate death of fish, limitations on the use of water resources and uncertainty about the quality of fish for consumption. In addition, this environmental disaster may have caused socio-environmental and economic impacts, severely damaging the region's riverside community and professional artisanal fishermen. This study was carried out with the fishing community and sought to assess their social vulnerability. In order to characterize the activity and identify possible damage, semi-structured interviews were conducted in May 2022. To analyze the qualitative data, the “RAPFISH” method was adapted, considering the following dimensions: 1- social, 2- perception of environmental risk and health, 3- economic, 4- management and technology, and 5- professional organization and governance. The results showed that the fishing communities have managed to maintain and improve their conditions in some of the dimensions considered, but still present situations of social vulnerability. They indicated that fishing is fundamental to family livelihoods and continues to be practiced regardless of the community's perception of risk. However, raising awareness about fish quality, marketing and consumption after the disaster requires more information and monitoring. Our approach was able to show that, among the five components, the social, environmental and economic dimensions are priorities for planning future actions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142168472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Combining machine learning (ML) and participatory rural appraisal (PRA) for disaster risk preparedness (DRP): Evidence from the poorest region of Luzon, Philippines","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the field of social science, disaster risk preparedness (DRP) is considered immeasurable due to its multidimensional nature, making it infamously difficult to quantify. The current measurements are costly, labor-intensive, and time-consuming. Consequently, policymakers struggle to target policies effectively when implementing disaster risk reduction management initiatives. By combining Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) and Machine Learning (ML) to train and test community-based system datasets, this work proposes novel approaches to DRP in the poorest region of Luzon, Philippines. We utilized sophisticated econometrics models along with ML categorization methods. Through the analysis of 34 locales and 4 sectors within a disaggregation system over 429 ensemble runs using cross-validation techniques, we then combined the results. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier achieved the highest accuracy of 91.55 % randomly and 94.53 % within the pipeline, surpassing all other models. It also confirms the current relationship between DRP and multidimensional attributes (a total of 21 factors) in terms of correlation and causation. Our work showcases the potential of ML for disaster risk prediction, potentially reducing costs, saving labor, and optimizing time, especially in the most impoverished areas of the Philippines. Ultimately, through extensive PRA, the outcomes have provided different localities with tools for targeting policies in disaster risk management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142161716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scenario evolution prediction of accidents triggered by lightning and emergency process risk analysis for gas transmission stations","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104808","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104808","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accidents triggered by lightning can make a devastating impact on facilities, especially hazardous materials transmission ones such as gas pipelines, stations, tanks, etc. Secondary disasters can be caused with the release of stored chemicals, leading to personnel casualties, fires or explosions. The objective of this study is to present a combination of two analysis methodologies to prevent the escalation of accidents triggered by lightning for gas transmission stations. Event Chain Evolution Analysis (ECEA) method was proposed to construct a scenario evolution model of lightning strikes in gas transmission stations, and the risk levels of different secondary disasters were obtained through risk matrix analysis. The evolution prediction results show that the risk of fire associated with lightning is the highest among the secondary disasters. Weighted Stochastic Petri Nets (WSPN) was further proposed to develop emergency disposal process model for possible secondary disasters with high risks, which can identify critical emergency states and actions. The calculation results show that the critical places are expansion of fire area, on-site alert status, completion of maintenance, and extinguishment, and critical transitions include ending emergency response, extinguishing fire by fire brigade, replacing maintenance equipment, and evacuating and setting up warning areas. This work is expected to provide basis for the prevention and response of accidents triggered by lightning in gas transmission stations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142150167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fine-scale spatiotemporal earthquake casualty risk assessment considering building function types","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104806","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104806","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Lessons from recent global earthquakes underscore the persistent high risk of seismic casualties. Despite considerable attention to earthquake casualty risk assessment (ECRA), studies adopting fine-scale spatiotemporal ECRA remain limited. We argue that fine-scale ECRA would benefit from considering building function types (BFTs) due to their significant impact on population dynamics and indoor occupancy rates. This study uses an intelligent BFT extraction model to identify BFT clusters with similar population dynamic patterns, and proposes a fine-scale ECRA framework based on the explicit integration of BFTs with detailed nearly real-time population data. Using Beijing as an example, we modeled fatalities under 240 (5 × 24 × 2) earthquake scenarios with intensities from VI to X on weekdays and weekends by hour, with a resolution of 500 m, and quantified the impact of BFTs on ECRA. Findings of seismic intensity X reveal that: (1) the seismic casualty risk of Beijing exhibits notable spatiotemporal differences, with approximately 85 % of fatalities occurring within the 6th Ring Road and approximately 58.06 % more fatalities at 03:00 than at 10:00; (2) by considering BFTs, the accuracy of the ECRA framework improved by up to 47.59 % compared with traditional methods. Moreover, this study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed method by employing it to estimate the potential fatalities in Beijing using the 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu <em>M</em>_<em>S</em> 8.0 earthquake scenario. Our method provides nuanced multi-scenario considerations for earthquake preparedness and response, offers insights into the application of BFTs in ECRA, and highlights the utility of intelligent technologies and big data for maintaining current assessment models.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142168655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identification of influencing factors and risk assessment of underground space flooding in the mountain city","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As a consequence of the process of urbanization, there is an increasing reliance on and exploitation of underground spaces. Moreover, these areas are susceptible to urban waterlogging, which can be difficult to drain, potentially leading to significant risks. At present, there are few simulations in hydrodynamic models that consider underground spaces. The risk of inundation of underground spaces remains an uncertain phenomenon. This study conceptualized underground spaces as storage areas, with the aim of simulating the spatial distribution of flood risk for different return periods. We studied the flooding processes and characteristics of three underground space types. The results indicate that the flood evolution simulated by the simplified modeling method that incorporates underground space is more aligned with the actual situation. To further analyze the risk distribution of urban waterlogging, we choose the XGBoost model and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to assess the influence of specific indicators on the occurrence of urban waterlogging in mountainous regions. Our analysis revealed that key factors include density of road (DR), flow velocity (V), density of pipes (DP), elevation (DEM), and inundation height (H), with contribution rates of 23.13 %, 17.06 %, 14.67 %, 10.12 %, and 9.04 %, respectively. This analysis clarified the risk of underground inundation within the study area, which can serve as a reference point for the formulation of flood control and drainage strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142228709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating determinants of public participation in community emergency preparedness in China using DEMATEL methodology","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104803","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104803","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study employs the intuitionistic linguistic DEMATEL method to identify the key determinants of public participation in community emergency preparedness in China. Critical factors such as community cohesion, information accessibility, and trust in the authorities were examined, revealing their roles as drivers or outcomes within the emergency preparedness framework. The findings emphasize the importance of past experiences and resource availability in enhancing public participation, while communication strategies and educational programs significantly influence these factors. By highlighting the complex interactions between these determinants, this study provides actionable insights for improving emergency response efficiency and fostering community resilience. This study offers practical recommendations for policymakers and emergency management practitioners to strengthen communication clarity, resource availability, and community networks, ultimately advancing emergency management practices.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142150168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}