Alignment between top-down disaster indices and local views on disaster preparedness

Abstract

This study examines whether top-down indices of disaster resilience and vulnerability align with individuals' perceptions of preparedness and coping capacity. Using data from a nationally representative survey of Australians in 2021, we match individuals' self-reported perceptions to two indices: the Vulnerability Index and the Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index. Regression analyses reveal that these indices, including most of their sub-components, are weakly or inconsistently associated with perceived preparedness and coping capacity. These patterns persist across demographic groups and for individuals with recent disaster experience. The misalignment appears to stem partly from the indices’ strong correlation with area-level socioeconomic status. Although socioeconomic advantage is typically assumed to improve resilience and reduce vulnerability, we find it is not a strong predictor of how prepared or capable people feel. These findings raise questions about how resilience and vulnerability are measured and interpreted, particularly when used to guide policy and funding decisions. We argue that top-down indices and local perceptions capture different dimensions of resilience, and using both in parallel could improve the targeting and effectiveness of resilience-building strategies.