Assessing agricultural drought hazard, vulnerability and risk over India

Abstract

India is an agrarian country, and its economy heavily relies on the successful harvest of crops to ensure food security and economic stability. Frequent droughts in different parts of the country have detrimental effects on agriculture by impeding crop productivity and causing huge economic losses to the farming community and associated sectors. Effective management of long-term drought necessitates a thorough evaluation and delineation of drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk. Existing drought analyses over India are often localized, focusing on small regions or specific basins. Hence, there is a critical need to comprehensively understand drought at a national level to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study addresses this gap by conducting an extensive, district-level, nationwide assessment of drought risk over India by integrating the drought hazard and vulnerability. The drought hazard estimated by novel kernel density based Modified Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MMSDI_k), with proposed modified weight and rating schemes, and utilizing data of rainfall, soil moisture and potential evapotranspiration for the study area over a period of 43 years (1980–2022). The drought vulnerability estimated by employing reliable indicators that consider both sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The results of the drought risk study highlighted that Indo-Gangetic plains, parts of the North-India, Central India, and specific regions in the Gujarat, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh states as high-risk areas. Conversely, numerous districts exhibited low to moderate drought risk. The bivariate choropleth risk map highlighted that many regions encounter low hazard and high vulnerability due to the high impact of societal developments rather than climate-invoked changes. The study found that agricultural drought is higher in non-arid regions of India because of the high variability and decreasing trend in the rainfall. The findings can support policymakers in planning region-specific actions for effective drought management, and the proposed framework is generic, can be applied to any other region.