International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Seismic spatiotemporal assessment of indoor occupant casualties in regional buildings: A Bayesian network approach incorporating population density dynamics","authors":"Jia-Wei Ding ,&nbsp;Da-Gang Lu ,&nbsp;Yao Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of rapid population growth and accelerated urbanization, the impact of earthquake disasters has intensified, making human casualties a critical concern. Accurate prediction of earthquake-induced casualties is essential for developing emergency response strategies, optimizing rescue resource allocation, and facilitating post-earthquake decision-making. This study employs a Bayesian Networks (BNs) model to systematically integrate information on both structural and non-structural components, as well as social factors, to construct a multifactorial assessment framework. This framework accurately estimates the probability of indoor occupants' life safety status during an earthquake. It considers the effect of population density, escape capability and rescue efficiency on individual safety and develops life safety status fragility surface with ground motion intensity measures and population density. Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to enable real-time prediction of indoor occupant life safety status within a single building structure. The study further extends to regional scale by incorporating the spatial correlation of ground motion intensity measures. This innovation facilitates a dynamic, spatiotemporal assessment of life safety status within a regional building portfolio. The findings highlight the critical role of ground motion intensity measures and population density in assessing indoor occupant casualties. By dynamically monitoring population distribution and real-time updating of ground motion intensity measures, the assessment framework proposed in this study can effectively enhance the accuracy and efficiency of earthquake disaster emergency response, providing a reliable scientific basis for government departments to facilitate rapid rescue operations and optimize resource allocation in the aftermath of an earthquake.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105637"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leveraging local knowledge to develop local forecasts: A case study of sea-ice hazard forecasts for marine fisheries in Laizhou Bay, China","authors":"Yinghui Cao ,&nbsp;Xuliang Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhaohui Zhang ,&nbsp;Ge Li ,&nbsp;Jianxin Yang ,&nbsp;Xin Wu ,&nbsp;Xin Li ,&nbsp;Kang Ma ,&nbsp;Wang Guo ,&nbsp;Juan Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105633","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change increasingly exposes agricultural communities to natural hazards, yet effective communication of hazard forecasts and warnings remains limited, hindering preparedness and adaptation. This paper presents a systematic approach to developing local hazard forecasts and warnings by integrating local knowledge into existing technocratic systems. A synthesized literature review established a foundational framework for categorizing and incorporating local knowledge to enhance core forecasting and warning pillars and questions. This was followed by a case study on developing local sea-ice forecasts for marine fishery communities in Laizhou Bay, China. An operational framework was proposed, which included four sequential mixed-methods steps: expert consultations, focus group discussions, individual interviews, and eye-tracking experiments, to gather ecological, adaptive, social, and cognitive knowledge related to sea-ice risks and fishery adaptation. The local knowledge was incorporated into the system by addressing five operational questions: who, when, what, through what means, and how to communicate forecasts effectively. Four fishery user groups were identified, and their information needs were analyzed, highlighting the importance of the annual forecast issued on November 20th. Local communication networks were mapped to strengthen both public-facing and inter-agency dissemination. Based on the cognitive experiment findings, a dual-format communication strategy was proposed, integrating official forecasts with localized social messaging to convey both scientific and locally relevant risk indicators using familiar terminology. This research provides a practical solution to the “last mile” challenge in agricultural forecasting and contributes to the broader goal of impact-based forecasts and warnings by leveraging local knowledge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105633"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144254376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Government risk communication and response networks: Insights from typhoon news in China","authors":"Lihua Wang ,&nbsp;Shengyi Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105587","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Risk communication plays a critical role in disaster warning and management, and social media is emerging as a powerful tool for information dissemination. While substantial research exists on risk communication, studies focusing on governments as the primary subject are limited, and there is a noticeable gap in examining inter-city and city-organization emergency responses. This study aims to address these gaps by exploring and evaluating China’s governmental communication strategies during typhoon disasters. We collect typhoon-related news from the WeChat Official Accounts of 237 city governments over an entire year, alongside corresponding typhoon data for the same period. Based on this dataset, we propose an analytical framework for government risk communication. First, we design a three-stage analysis method (pre-disaster, mid-disaster, and post-disaster) based on the Disaster Management Cycle to analyze the dynamics of public engagement. Second, we develop city and organization extractors to construct city and organization response networks, offering fresh approaches to studying city collaboration and organizational coordination. Finally, leveraging large language models, we develop a title feature extractor and sentiment classification model, providing valuable insights for optimizing government media strategies. Overall, this study offers novel methods and a fresh perspective on government risk communication.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105587"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144254374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A feminist community-based participatory action research approach to advance climate justice","authors":"Clare E.B. Cannon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The purpose of this research is to develop and pilot a feminist informed community based participatory action research approach (f-CBPAR) to examine injustice. CBPAR is a collaborative approach between researchers and community members throughout the research process. F-CBPAR draws on both feminist theory and CBPAR literatures to identify power arrangements that contribute to environmental injustice. Using a f-CBPAR case study approach of primary interview data and descriptive secondary data, this exploratory study identifies climate threats of concern to a rural, farmworker community in California (USA) experiencing environmental and climate injustice. The f-CBPAR approach is used in partnering with community organizations to analyze hierarchical systems of power in conducting environmental exposure research. Through this exploratory case study, it unpacks one test case to showcase how f-CBPAR can help researchers further climate justice research. The originality of this research lies in the development of a novel CBPAR approach informed by feminist theory to identify gendered, racialized, and classed power arrangements that maintain climate injustice and to foster community action against such injustice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105631"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Formation and evolution of individual evacuation roles in building emergencies: A role-playing immersive virtual reality study","authors":"Jing Lin ,&nbsp;Zhongang Peng ,&nbsp;Runhe Zhu ,&nbsp;Yan Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105632","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-density indoor environments require efficient emergency responses, but varying roles complicate evacuations. This study uses virtual reality technology to examine the formation and evolution of evacuation roles in minutes in response to environmental triggers. Participants were assigned to one of the initial evacuation roles (leader, emergency responder, follower, indecisive role and egocentric role) and trained using role-playing scripts. Various triggers for different evacuation roles were designed within a virtual hospital scenario to motivate role evolution. The findings show that most participants quickly formed their initial evacuation roles. However, the frequency and direction of role evolution varied by role, highlighting the need for role-based safety training. The study also reveals that role ambiguity, particularly among followers, can lead to indecisive actions, negatively impacting evacuation performance. These results emphasize the importance of clear role definitions and targeted training to improve evacuation efficiency and effectiveness in built environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105632"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144231125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Excess pneumonia and influenza mortality in Nevada during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020-December 2021): Implications for disaster preparedness","authors":"Danika M. Williams ,&nbsp;Lingchen Wang ,&nbsp;Ann M. Weber ,&nbsp;Minggen Lu ,&nbsp;Katherine Starcevich ,&nbsp;Daniel M. Cook ,&nbsp;Tin-Yau Tam ,&nbsp;Wei Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105630","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105630","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted pneumonia and influenza (P&amp;I) mortality patterns, altering seasonality and increasing disparities across demographic and geographic groups. Prior studies often relied on aggregate estimates that obscured subgroup-specific disparities. This study analyzes excess P&amp;I mortality in Nevada as a case study for pandemic-related mortality impacts through a disaster risk reduction and social determinants of health framework to quantify excess deaths, assess disparities, and evaluate COVID-19's contribution. Using death certificate data from Nevada State Vital Records spanning January 2015 to December 2021, P&amp;I deaths were identified using ICD-10 codes (influenza: J09.0-J11.9, pneumonia: J12.0-J18.9, COVID-19: U07.1). A Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model estimated expected P&amp;I mortality based on pre-pandemic reference period (January 2015–February 2020), with excess deaths calculated as the difference between observed and expected mortality. Demographic and geographic disparities were quantified. Findings showed Nevada recorded 6,234 excess respiratory disease deaths, a 3.95-fold (295%) increase above expected levels. COVID-19-associated deaths comprised 75.3% of P&amp;I deaths and 4,506 excess deaths; non-COVID-19 P&amp;I deaths showed no significant excess. Disparities were most pronounced among males (4.33-fold, 333% increase), adults aged 25-64 (4.97-fold, 397%), and Hispanics (7.92-fold, 692%), although the greatest number of deaths occurred among adults aged ≥65. Frontier regions had the greatest mortality burden among regions (3.98-fold, 298%). These findings show the pandemic drastically impacted respiratory disease mortality patterns, disproportionately affecting working-aged adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and frontier communities. This study highlights the need for strengthened healthcare infrastructure, improved emergency response, and equitable preparedness policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105630"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144239988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying road criticality through the impact of disruptions on pavement deterioration and agency maintenance costs","authors":"Eduardo Allen,&nbsp;Seosamh B. Costello,&nbsp;Theunis F.P. Henning","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Road pavement deterioration depends on several factors, such as traffic loads and environmental conditions. Extreme natural hazard events, such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes, have significantly damaged road infrastructure over the years, further exacerbating road deterioration. While Transportation Asset Management (TAM) traditionally focuses on normal stressors to estimate road deterioration, recent research has incorporated the effects of natural hazards through fragility and exposure assessments. However, the impact of traffic detours caused by natural hazard events on road remaining life and maintenance costs has not been studied to the best knowledge of the authors. This paper, therefore, proposes a methodology to quantify the effect of highway disruptions on the maintenance cost and remaining life of pavements. The methodology is applied to the South Island of New Zealand, assessing the criticality of primary highway networks, using a “full-scan” approach. Results show that local roads are highly vulnerable to traffic detours, with increases in average monthly maintenance costs up to 289% in the most critical disruptions. The proposed approach offers a valuable tool for transportation agencies to assess road network criticality and predict the consequences of traffic detours following disruptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105592"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144223486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mitigating flood vulnerabilities through retarding basin systems: A case study in Bengawan Solo River, Indonesia","authors":"Tri Budi Prayogo ,&nbsp;Moh Sholichin ,&nbsp;Dewi Amalia ,&nbsp;Faridah Othman ,&nbsp;Seto Sugianto Prabowo Rahardjo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105629","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding is one of the most significant global disasters, causing severe social, economic, and environmental impacts, particularly in riverine regions. Retarding basins are effective flood mitigation measures that temporarily store excess water during peak flows, thereby reducing downstream flood risks. This study investigates the application of this concept by analyzing the Jabung Retarding Basin in Lamongan Regency, part of the Bengawan Solo River, Indonesia. The objective is to evaluate the basin's effectiveness in reducing flood extent, depth, and associated economic losses before and after implementation. Using HEC-RAS 6.5 and ArcGIS 10.3, flood inundation mapping was conducted for return periods of 10, 20, 25, and 50 years. The results show that the Jabung Retarding Basin reduced the flood-affected area by 39.72 %–42.69 %, with the most significant reductions observed in areas where inundation depths exceeded 1.50 m. However, its effect on average flood depth was limited, decreasing slightly from 1.036 to 1.046 m to 0.995–1.031 m after operation. In addition to reducing flood extent, the basin significantly lowered economic losses. For instance, a flood with a 50-year return period previously caused an estimated loss of approximately $9.55 million, which decreased to $5.89 million post-operation. Although this study is site-specific, the findings demonstrate that retarding basins can contribute to integrated flood risk management in other flood-prone or deltaic regions. The methodology employed can be adapted to similar hydrological and socio-economic contexts. Future mitigation efforts should also consider downstream impacts by enhancing floodway capacity, optimizing drainage systems, and implementing early warning systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105629"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prioritizing risk for cultural heritage through social value: a participatory framework","authors":"Chiara Arrighi,&nbsp;Matteo Masi,&nbsp;Claudia De Lucia,&nbsp;Fabio Castelli","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105627","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105627","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evaluating exposure to natural hazards is crucial for risk management, particularly for cultural heritage, where multi-faceted values like social, aesthetic, spiritual, and historical dimensions make assessment complex. This study presents a participatory, quantitative approach to evaluate the social value of cultural heritage buildings based on a pairwise comparison survey administered to a community of citizens. Moreover, the correlation between social value and other simple proxies is explored. The intangible impact is defined as a combination of social value and a physical property typical of the natural hazard considered, e.g., water depth for floods. The method is applied to the art city of Florence (Italy) where a community of interest joined the survey. The results show that museums are assigned significantly higher social values than places of worship, with UNESCO-listed heritage valued up to 30 times higher than nationally listed buildings. Social value correlates most strongly with ticket price (Spearman's r = 0.68), followed by number of visitors. Canonical correlation analysis links social value more strongly to a combination of variables (r = 0.75), with ticket price and museum status as the most influential factors. Mapping flood magnitude weighted by social value shifts the most at risk areas away from the river, underscoring the importance of intangible cultural values in risk prioritization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105627"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"European Early Warning Systems for coastal floods: User needs, system availability and pertinent policy and legislation","authors":"D. Chatzistratis ,&nbsp;A. Filoktitis Velegrakis ,&nbsp;T. Chalazas ,&nbsp;B. Alves ,&nbsp;E. Schiavon ,&nbsp;I.N. Monioudi ,&nbsp;C. Armaroli","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The present contribution aims to assess the need for a pan-European Early Warning System (EWS) for coastal floods, and more specifically, to: a) gauge user needs, using a structured questionnaire survey; b) collate the technical specifications of available European EWSs for coastal floods; c) assess the coherence between stated user needs, the specifications of the European EWSs and the existing policy imperatives and legal requirements. The questionnaire survey showed that: the majority (&gt;70 %) of the respondents does not currently use EWSs; most respondents are keen on a pan-European EWS for coastal floods which would include impact assessments as well as event-based flood notifications; and there is a low respondents' familiarity with the relevant international and EU policy and legal frameworks. Regarding the available EWS in Europe, their vast majority provide forecasts/warnings on the basis of Total Water Levels (TWLs) without considering the flood characteristics and impacts; this is inconsistent with both the stated user needs and the policy and legal framework that require risk and impact assessments based on the flood extent, flow depth and velocity. Moreover, there is a ‘polyphony’ in terms of the technical/operational characteristics of the EWSs. Finally, there is an apparent increase in policy and legal requirements for expansion and coherent development of tools for reducing coastal flood risks, including monitoring, assessment, management and the development of integrated EWSs. Generally, there is low coherence between the needs of potential end-users, the characteristics of the available EWSs and the pertinent policy and legislation frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"126 ","pages":"Article 105602"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144291077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}