International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Health and livelihood impacts of flood hazards on internally displaced persons in Pakistan","authors":"Ashfaq Ahmad Shah ,&nbsp;Wahid Ullah ,&nbsp;Nasir Abbas Khan ,&nbsp;Abid Khan ,&nbsp;Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ,&nbsp;Edris Alam ,&nbsp;Ayat Ullah","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the last two decades, Pakistan has experienced frequent and intense hydrometeorological hazards. We aimed to assess the impacts of flood hazards on the health and livelihoods of internally displaced persons in two districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. We used a mixed-methods approach to collect quantitative data using structured questionnaires and focus group discussions with key community decision-makers, including elders and leaders for qualitative data. The recurrent displacements experienced by respondents negatively affected the availability of basic needs, including limited access to fundamental healthcare services, inadequate provision for mental health support, insufficient availability of sanitation facilities, inadequate education on hygiene practices, heightened risks of exploitation and abuse, inadequate provision of psychosocial support, lack of suitable housing, limited food security, weakened social cohesion, along with increased instances of violence and gender discrimination. However, our findings also revealed certain enhancements in the fundamental requirements of displaced individuals. This included children's rights to education, support in reconstructing the means of subsistence and attaining self-reliance, provision of aid in obtaining necessary documentation, access to legal assistance, opportunities for sustainable livelihoods, and access to precise and prompt information regarding accessible services, and opportunities for aid and support. Flood hazards adversely impacted economic activities, including physical infrastructure utilized for informal trade, borrowed funds, agricultural and farming sector, small-scale businesses, loan repayment capacity, and investment and savings. They also affected physical health, psychological well-being, and healthcare services. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers in Pakistan and other considers addressing the multifaceted impacts of natural hazards on displaced people.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105295"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real-time seismic response prediction method of high-rise buildings based on deep learning for earthquake early warning","authors":"Qingle Cheng,&nbsp;Haotian Ren,&nbsp;Xiangchi Meng,&nbsp;Aiqun Li,&nbsp;Linlin Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The real-time prediction of seismic responses in high-rise buildings is crucial for safeguarding the lives and property of residents. Ground-motion prediction and structural dynamic amplification involve highly nonlinear processes. Traditional performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE)-based methods rely on fixed functional forms and struggle to capture these complex relationships. Deep-learning techniques, which can uncover intricate nonlinear patterns in data, offer a promising solution. Therefore, this study proposed a deep-learning-based method for the real-time prediction of the seismic responses of high-rise buildings aimed at earthquake early warning (EEW). This method computes building seismic responses using a city-scale nonlinear time-history analysis (NTHA) method and constructs a training dataset based on a strong-motion database. Seismic parameters, ground-motion intensity measures (IMs) from the first 3 s after P-wave arrival, and building attributes were used as inputs to develop a deep neural network (DNN) model, EEWnet, for the real-time prediction of seismic responses. The feasibility of the proposed method was validated using 72 high-rise buildings, and the reliability of the model was assessed using 74 sets of measured data. The results demonstrated that the method could accurately predict the seismic responses of high-rise buildings in real-time, achieving a prediction accuracy of 93.24 % for more severe events. Notably, all the data utilized in this method are publicly available resources, and the model achieved superior predictive performance based on these open-access datasets. This underscores the method's significant advantages in terms of both accuracy and flexibility, further enhancing its value as a practical tool for EEW in high-rise buildings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105294"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rapid seismic damage assessment of building portfolio based on fusion of surrogate model and monitored data","authors":"Guoqing Zhang ,&nbsp;Kun Liu ,&nbsp;Weiping Wen ,&nbsp;Changhai Zhai ,&nbsp;Chenyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Bochang Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105293","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105293","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate and rapid estimation of regional seismic damage is vital for urban planning, scientific disaster preparedness, and emergency response. However, existing methods face challenges in quickly and accurately obtaining the linear and nonlinear parameters of regional building portfolios with limited building information, making it difficult to realize accurate and rapid regional structural damage assessments. This paper proposes a data fusion method that uses surrogate model and monitored data of building portfolios to rapidly acquire both linear and nonlinear parameters under conditions of limited building information, thereby enabling accurate and rapid assessment of regional seismic damage. To accelerate structural response calculations, the best surrogate model was obtained by comparing three Machine Learning (ML) algorithms tuned by the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm. Predicted responses by the surrogate model, and monitored responses were then fused using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and parallel computing to inverse the structural parameters. Finally, the target ground motions and the obtained structural parameters were input into the surrogate model for regional seismic damage assessment. To validate the proposed method, two cases with different sources of monitored data were presented. The results show that the errors between the predicted and actual values in structural damage state proportions under new ground motions for both two cases are within 5 % and the structural parameters closely match the actual situations. Additionally, the regional data fusions for various scales of building portfolios were conducted. The calculation speed improved by at least 5880 times faster compared to existing methods for different scales of building portfolios, demonstrating the capability of the proposed method to rapidly assess large-scale building portfolios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105293"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143403702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pastoral conflict on the greener grass? Exploring the climate-conflict nexus in the Karamoja Cluster","authors":"Rebecca Navarro,&nbsp;Lamis Saleh,&nbsp;Evelyne Owino","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105287","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Karamoja Cluster, a cross-border region between Kenya, South Sudan, Uganda, and Ethiopia, where pastoralism has long been the main livelihood, was extraordinarily affected by severe droughts between 2018 and 2023. During this time, pastoral conflict in the region increased to unprecedented levels. Being highly dependent on the environment, pastoralists are expected to be especially vulnerable to climate change in the near future. In our work we use a mixed-methods approach combining informant interviews to highlight the importance of local policies in the debate on the climate-conflict nexus, along with an empirical analysis of the linkage between climate and conflict, evaluating the predictive potential of different environmental variables. We provide a recent assessment of the conflict dynamics in the Karamoja Cluster from 2018 to 2023, a time marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, a locust plague and a series of severe droughts. We found that policies aiming to address multiple crises during this time limited the mobility of transhumant pastoral communities, leaving them exposed to the devastating consequences of climate change. At a broader scale, our analysis shows that higher levels of vegetation were associated with lower conflict. However, conflicts were concentrated on the transition zones between areas of high and low resource availability. Conversely, within the Karamoja Cluster, pastoral conflict occurred primarily “on the greener grass”, with peaks observed during periods of environmental scarcity following phases of resource abundance. Finally, we found that vegetation data outperformed other variables, such as rainfall, in predicting pastoral conflict one month in advance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105287"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving evacuation policies through agent-based modeling and stakeholder engagement in hazard-prone areas","authors":"Hossein Moradi ,&nbsp;Rouba Iskandar ,&nbsp;Sebastian Rodriguez ,&nbsp;Dhirendra Singh ,&nbsp;Julie Dugdale ,&nbsp;Dimitrios Tzempelikos ,&nbsp;Athanasios Sfetsos ,&nbsp;Evangelia Bakogianni ,&nbsp;Evrydiki Pavlidi ,&nbsp;Josué Díaz ,&nbsp;Margarita Ribas ,&nbsp;Alexandre Moragues ,&nbsp;Joan Estrany","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105280","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105280","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces <strong>C-SAFE</strong>, a comprehensive framework for developing emergency evacuation simulations to enhance pre-disaster preparedness. <strong>C-SAFE</strong> combines a simulation framework encompassing five key dimensions: Infrastructure, Population Demographics, Evacuation Policy, Hazard Model, and Human Behavior Model. This allows for the systematic creation of what-if scenarios to test the effectiveness of evacuation policies under various conditions. Additionally, the framework integrates a co-creation process involving local stakeholders, ensuring the scenarios are tailored to specific contexts. This complementary operation provides an iterative mechanism, addressing both the granularity required for simulation resolution and the detail needed for practical and context-sensitive simulation scenario development. C-SAFE is tested in Greece focusing on earthquake hazards, producing metrics such as time analysis, heatmaps of population dynamics, and insights into preferred safe locations. The validation process in this case study demonstrates (1) an improved understanding of evacuation concerns, (2) a clear process for defining evacuation scenarios, and (3) enhanced communication between stakeholders through simulations. Furthermore, the framework is also applied in Spain, focusing on flash flood hazards, where results show, for example, that the early warning system could reduce the number of stranded individuals by 37 %, confirming the framework's value for optimizing evacuation policies according to practitioners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105280"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Simultaneous adoption of catastrophic risk management tools in aquaculture: A study of floodplain areas of Bangladesh","authors":"K M Mehedi Adnan ,&nbsp;Zhao Xicang ,&nbsp;Swati Anindita Sarker ,&nbsp;Wu Jiying ,&nbsp;Md. Shah Alamgir","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aquaculture is considered a high-risk industry, with production variability significantly hindering the development and implementation of effective risk management strategies. Globally, farms commonly employ multiple risk management approaches simultaneously. However, previous research has largely overlooked the relationship between the decision to adopt risk management techniques and the feasibility of implementing these technologies concurrently. This study uses bivariate and multinomial probit models to analyze the effects of 300 aquaculture producers' decisions to utilize farm management and vertical integration to mitigate farm risks. The research highlights the potential interconnections between different risk management adoption decisions. The results indicate that decisions regarding vertical integration and farm management implementation are related, suggesting that farmers should focus on a variety of risk management techniques to minimize risks. Additionally, the findings underscore the importance of factors such as age, household income, education, extension contact, land ownership status, disease and flood risks, and farmers' risk aversion in influencing the adoption of farm management and vertical integration for risk reduction. The application of probit approaches to standard risk-management tools provides deeper insights, aiding policymakers in developing more effective risk management strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105284"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143387639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A compact multi-hazard assessment model to identify urban areas prone to heat islands, floods and particulate matter","authors":"Daniel Jato-Espino ,&nbsp;Cristina Manchado ,&nbsp;Alejandro Roldán-Valcarce","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105277","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105277","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urbanization and climate change intensify environmental hazards such as the Surface Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, the concentration of Particulate Matter 10 μm or less in diameter (PM10) and flooding. These hazards are common in cities, driven by factors such as land cover changes, energy consumption, road traffic, soil sealing and proximity to water. To address the gaps identified in previous studies, which focus on modelling single hazards and/or use many variables, we developed a compact multi-hazard assessment model to identify urban areas prone to the three hazards mentioned. A reduced number of variables were processed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to model each hazard and then combine the results into a composite multi-hazard metric. The criteria weights were optimized based on observed values of SUHI, PM10 and floods in the city of Santander (Spain), where the model was tested. The results showed a strong correlation between our multi-hazard map and the observed data, suggesting that using few variables can effectively identify hotspots with heightened combined impacts of these hazards. The most critical areas were found in the central and southwestern parts of the city, where infrastructure and artificial surfaces with lower albedo and permeability, as well as high traffic volumes, predominate. Accordingly, strategies to counteract the effects of these hazards should consider a shift in urban design, emphasizing light-colored, porous pavements and various forms of vegetation. These measures contribute to thermal regulation, runoff control and air purification, thus contributing to make cities more resilient.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105277"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143396124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Joint warning mechanism of urban flood considering comprehensive risk and emergency rescues","authors":"Hongfa Wang ,&nbsp;Xinjian Guan ,&nbsp;Yu Meng ,&nbsp;Hongshi Xu ,&nbsp;Huiliang Wang ,&nbsp;Zening Wu ,&nbsp;Denghua Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105290","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban flooding has posed significant challenges to urban development due to the global climate change and the urban construction process. Timely and accurate warning information is crucial to reduce impacts of floods. However, few studies have explored the linkage of rescue activities with early warning information. Therefore, a joint warning mechanism considering anthropogenic relief activities and urban flood risk was proposed. First, the comprehensive flood risk results were obtained by using analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy evaluation with data on flood depth, population density, characteristics of disaster bearing bodies, and land average GDP. Then, the two-step floating catchment area method was improved to analyze the rescue accessibility. Finally, the joint warning results were obtained through two-dimensional table method to achieve warning while preserving the characteristics of the basic information of relief and flood risk. A practical application in the Jinshui District, Zhengzhou city was used to confirm the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The results revealed that areas labeled as efficient rescue covered 23.83 % of the high risk area under 100a return period rainfall, which needed be improved. The research results provide a scientific reference for the actual rescue work.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105290"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143387534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Business as usual? Small business responses to compound disasters in coastal New York city and New Jersey","authors":"Katherine Cann ,&nbsp;Robin Leichenko ,&nbsp;William Solecki ,&nbsp;Malgosia Madajewicz ,&nbsp;Maravilla Clemens ,&nbsp;Nyla Howell ,&nbsp;Marjorie Kaplan ,&nbsp;Jeanne Herb","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105288","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105288","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small businesses serve critical functions in community disaster recovery, providing essential goods and services, employment, and gathering spaces during times of crisis. However, many small businesses face escalating threats to their continued operation as they confront compound disasters. These critical functions and growing risks are especially evident among food-related small businesses, which provide vital goods and services to local communities during and after extreme events, yet are also highly vulnerable to disruption of business operations. This study examines how food-related small businesses experience compound disasters, how they cope with and prepare for disruptions, and the barriers they encounter in building resilience. Focusing on coastal communities in New York City and New Jersey, we conducted surveys of food-related small business owners and managers and in-depth interviews with business owners, government officials, business industry representatives, and other stakeholders. Our findings suggest that small businesses in the region are responding to recent compound disasters including COVID-19, associated economic challenges, and climatic shocks, through four key approaches: diversifying business operations; fostering networks with other local businesses and surrounding communities; expanding adoption of web-based technology; and emphasizing self-help. While these approaches have the potential to contribute to resilience to future compound shocks and stressors, they also highlight some of the challenges small businesses face in responding to an increasingly varied array of threats, including limited availability of and access to financial and technical support. Our findings highlight a need for more attention to the concerns and contributions of small businesses in community resilience planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105288"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social-ecological vulnerability and risk to coastal flooding and erosion in major coastal cities","authors":"Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah ,&nbsp;Quan Van Dau ,&nbsp;Xiuquan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105286","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105286","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a global comprehensive vulnerability and risk assessment of social-ecological systems to flooding and erosion in 136 major coastal cities. The risk index was estimated using an indicator-based risk assessment approach, combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The results show that cities exhibiting greater risk are mostly in Asia, while cities with lower risk are mainly in Africa, Europe, and North America. Approximately 54 million people and US$ 3055 billion worth of assets are vulnerable to coastal hazards in 136 cities. Asian cities demonstrate a higher level of population exposure, while North American cities have higher asset exposure. Furthermore, the results also suggest that cities with coastal ecosystems and integrated nature-based solutions (NbS) in flood and erosion management plans tend to have lower risk levels than average. The paper emphasizes the importance of integrating NbS for flood and erosion risk management for adapting to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"118 ","pages":"Article 105286"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143378452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}