International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

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Time poverty and disaster readiness: How routine constraints shape hurricane preparation 时间贫乏和灾难准备:常规限制如何影响飓风准备
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106037
Yan Wang , Ziyi Guo , Christopher McCarty
{"title":"Time poverty and disaster readiness: How routine constraints shape hurricane preparation","authors":"Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Ziyi Guo ,&nbsp;Christopher McCarty","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster warnings offer critical lead time for preparation, but how people use the time is shaped by their daily routines and demands. Although prior research has examined psychological and demographic vulnerabilities in disaster preparedness, the impact of time-poverty – especially during back-to-back disasters – has received little attention. As a result, some groups may experience heightened time stress, lack sufficient time to prepare, or even face increased safety risks. Thus, we conducted an in-depth investigation of time poverty and time use in hurricane preparation, focusing on Florida communities affected by at least one of the consecutive 2024 hurricanes, Helene and Milton. Using geographically targeted surveys from 1,069 hurricane-affected residents, we examined how time poverty, employment status, family responsibilities, and socio-economic vulnerability influenced time use, perceived time insufficiency, and time stress. Latent Class Analysis identified five routine time-poverty profiles, including <em>Young Time-Balanced Workers, Time-Rich Nonworkers</em><em>, Affluent Professionals, Working Overloaded Caregivers, and Strained Low-Income Caregivers</em>. Moderated regression analyses revealed that time-poor caregivers and busy professionals experienced significantly greater time stress and completed fewer preparations, while those with flexible routines reported less stress. We also found that perceived timely warnings alleviated time insufficiency, but this benefit diminished with the onset of the second hurricane. Despite less time spent on preparation and fewer uncompleted tasks, participants reported higher time stress for the second event. Our findings highlight the need for targeted, timely alerts and institutional measures, such as flexible work arrangements and caregivers support, to address structural time poverty and improve disaster readiness, especially under compound disasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106037"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Don't quit your day job. Part-time firefighters in rural Norway 不要辞掉你的日常工作。挪威乡村的兼职消防员
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106054
Petter Grytten Almklov , Gudveig Gjøsund , Torgeir Kolstø Haavik , Cathrine Wessel Antonsen
{"title":"Don't quit your day job. Part-time firefighters in rural Norway","authors":"Petter Grytten Almklov ,&nbsp;Gudveig Gjøsund ,&nbsp;Torgeir Kolstø Haavik ,&nbsp;Cathrine Wessel Antonsen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Part-time firefighters (PTFs) in rural Norway are employed in minor positions, have little formal training and often few resources. Still, they respond to a wide array of incidents in an impressive manner. Based on interviews of 24 informants in three municipalities our analysis shows how three small rural fire departments organize their work in a situation where most of their crew have 2% positions (sometimes less) as firefighters. We analyze the value of diversity of day-time jobs, the “practical” orientation of the PTFs, how they draw on social networks to the community and develop a community of their own. In some situations, their primary jobs provide directly applicable skills. They also contribute indirectly to group-level capabilities. We find that social relations to the community, and among the firefighters, are characterized by reciprocity and communal values. Social relations are a key explanation of the PTFs motivation to serve, and an important element of the effectiveness of the PTFs in doing so. The fire and rescue services (FRS) are woven into the fabric of the communities they serve, and this embeddedness is shaped by peculiar local circumstances, in terms of both resources and hazards. The paper describes and analyzes how social networks and reciprocal relations mobilize the resources in rural communities for emergency preparedness. The findings are relevant to contemporary processes of re-organizing FRS’ into larger units, by pointing to risks of losing important, but largely invisible, qualities of today's PTF-based services. Also, it illustrates how the embedded nature of such response organization can be a key factor to understand community resilience, particularly in rural areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106054"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Governance and adaptive capacity: Greater losses in assets, flexibility, and confidence among tourism operators in low-governance contexts during the COVID-19 pandemic 治理和适应能力:在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,低治理环境下的旅游经营者的资产、灵活性和信心损失更大
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106049
Henry A. Bartelet , Lalu A.A. Bakti
{"title":"Governance and adaptive capacity: Greater losses in assets, flexibility, and confidence among tourism operators in low-governance contexts during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Henry A. Bartelet ,&nbsp;Lalu A.A. Bakti","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how adaptive capacity shifts in response to major systemic shocks is essential for reducing disaster risk and strengthening resilience. While previous research has focused primarily on climate-related hazards, this study provides the first longitudinal quantification of multiple adaptive capacity domains across governance gradients during the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine how reef tourism operators’ capacity to adapt across the Asia-Pacific region evolved during the first year of the pandemic, a non-environmental but highly disruptive event with disaster-like impacts on coastal economies. Drawing on recall data from 166 operators in countries with varying levels of governance effectiveness, we assess substantial changes across six adaptive capacity domains: agency, assets, flexibility, learning, social organization, and socio-cognitive constructs. Results reveal widespread declines in material assets regardless of governance context, but divergent patterns in human and psychological dimensions. In countries with higher governance effectiveness, adaptation confidence displayed a balanced pattern of increases and decreases; in lower-effectiveness settings, confidence was more likely to decline. Access to skilled labour decreased in stronger institutional settings but increased where governance was weaker. Significant reductions in agency and flexibility occurred only in lower governance-effectiveness contexts. A positive correlation between changes in adaptation confidence and savings, found only in higher governance-effectiveness countries, underscores the interdependence between material and socio-cognitive factors. These findings highlight governance as a key driver of adaptive trajectories and challenge assumptions about universal benefits of diversification. By revealing context-specific pathways of capacity decline or strengthening, this work informs targeted risk reduction and recovery strategies for tourism-dependent communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106049"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting tephra fall building impacts and losses at Awu volcano, Sangihe Island (Indonesia) 印尼桑吉河岛阿乌火山火山崩落建筑物影响及损失预测
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106040
Eleanor Tennant , Susanna F. Jenkins , Christina Widiwijayanti , Ahmad Basuki , Heruningtyas D. Purnamasari
{"title":"Forecasting tephra fall building impacts and losses at Awu volcano, Sangihe Island (Indonesia)","authors":"Eleanor Tennant ,&nbsp;Susanna F. Jenkins ,&nbsp;Christina Widiwijayanti ,&nbsp;Ahmad Basuki ,&nbsp;Heruningtyas D. Purnamasari","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Moving beyond volcanic hazard assessment to forecast how hazards affect communities provides valuable information for risk mitigation. Awu, a remote volcano on Sangihe Besar Island, Indonesia, is currently experiencing unrest (December 2025). With the entire population living within 45 km of the volcano, there is a need for actionable risk information. We integrated probabilistic tephra fall hazard analysis with building exposure and vulnerability information to forecast losses from a likely VEI 4 eruption. To address limited exposure data, we extracted building roof types from satellite imagery and applied Bayesian inference to combine existing vulnerability models into a hybrid framework suited to local conditions. Results indicate a 95% probability of exceeding ∼$11 million USD (∼179 billion IDR) in building damage and a 75% probability of exceeding $25 million USD (∼407 billion IDR). Losses are concentrated in the northern districts, with Tahuna, the capital most affected. Losses at Awu were not well forecast by column height and wind conditions, parameters currently used to trigger insurance payouts from volcanic catastrophe risk bonds. Existing probabilistic volcanic loss calculations often couple a single hazard footprint representing the N<sup>th</sup> percentile intensity with exposure and vulnerability data. Here we calculated loss for each individual hazard footprint computing 100 million values to capture uncertainty in both hazard and vulnerability. Losses calculated using the median hazard footprint were 5% higher than the median of the loss population. In addition to supporting decision making during the current unrest, our work presents key advancements in volcanic risk assessment that may be applied to other locations worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106040"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Integrating physical drivers for wildfire hazard modelling in support of disaster risk reduction: A case study in Castile and León, Spain 整合野火灾害建模的物理驱动因素以支持减少灾害风险:以西班牙卡斯蒂利亚和León为例研究
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106047
Alejandro Corbea-Pérez, Andrés Merino, Andrés Navarro, Eduardo García-Ortega
{"title":"Integrating physical drivers for wildfire hazard modelling in support of disaster risk reduction: A case study in Castile and León, Spain","authors":"Alejandro Corbea-Pérez,&nbsp;Andrés Merino,&nbsp;Andrés Navarro,&nbsp;Eduardo García-Ortega","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfires represent a global threat, particularly in southwestern Europe and the Mediterranean basin, a climate change hotspot where rising temperatures and drought exacerbate risk. The present work addresses the urgent need for updated, spatially explicit hazard models, focusing on Castile and León, Spain, a strongly affected region within southwestern Europe that experienced an unprecedented fire season in 2025. The objective was to develop and evaluate a robust and globally transferrable wildfire hazard assessment framework at a daily, 1-km scale. This involved integrating biophysical and anthropogenic data from 2007 to 2022 with an external evaluation using data from August 2025. The rigorous validation within this complex, high-risk socioecological context ensured the fundamental capacity of the models for broader application. Two machine learning models were used: Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The results demonstrate the robustness of both models for predicting the ignition hazard. Interpretability analyses consistently identified thermal and hydric forcings as the main determinants of danger. Both models had strong predictive performance with complementary strengths, i.e., ConvLSTM excelled in restricting false alarms, and XGBoost maximized the detection of actual events. The integration of both architectures offers a solid foundation for developing hybrid decision-support systems. This very transferable modelling framework will empower managers and policymakers to optimise the allocation of firefighting resources and develop dynamic early warning systems, thereby facilitating a shift towards adaptive and sustainable risk management strategies in southwestern Europe and informing management practices in other fire-prone regions worldwide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106047"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Human-Disaster Dynamic System Approach for Wildfire Adaptation 野火适应的人-灾动态系统方法
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106044
Liming Lu , Chao Fan , Haizhong Wang
{"title":"A Human-Disaster Dynamic System Approach for Wildfire Adaptation","authors":"Liming Lu ,&nbsp;Chao Fan ,&nbsp;Haizhong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Whether legislative measures, the formal enactment of laws, regulations, and policy instruments, effectively reduce housing damage in wildfires remains under considerable debate. Existing damage models often fail to consider the socio-ecological feedback of legislative measures, indicated by community development and hazard occurrences. Here, we build a coupled land and hazard model to examine socio-ecological feedback to legislative measures and the impacts on future damage. We find that structural and relief legislation often leads to increased development of communities in wildfire-prone areas and ultimately results in large-scale housing damage in extreme wildfire events. On the contrary, educational and outreach legislation can offset the counterproductive effects of structural and relief legislation by reducing community development in risk areas. These results are attributed to the factor of risk perception, where increased risk perception reduces expansion in risk areas, but a false sense of security may increase community development in risk areas. Our findings suggest that ignoring socio-ecological feedback in estimating wildfire damage may overlook these counterproductive consequences and, in turn, affect the effectiveness of hazard management policies, resulting in maladaptation, where small events are prevented but large events may create extensive damage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106044"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Indirect transport cost prioritization index for road networks exposed to natural hazards: Application to earthquake-induced landslides 自然灾害下道路网络的间接运输成本优先指数:在地震诱发滑坡中的应用
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106042
Eduardo Allen, Seosamh B. Costello, Theunis F.P. Henning, Amelia Lin, Conrad Zorn, Liam Wotherspoon
{"title":"Indirect transport cost prioritization index for road networks exposed to natural hazards: Application to earthquake-induced landslides","authors":"Eduardo Allen,&nbsp;Seosamh B. Costello,&nbsp;Theunis F.P. Henning,&nbsp;Amelia Lin,&nbsp;Conrad Zorn,&nbsp;Liam Wotherspoon","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural hazards have historically disrupted road networks, generating significant economic consequences, which are often assessed through reconstruction costs alone. Furthermore, not all road link disruptions contribute equally, as some produce higher indirect economic impacts due to their strategic importance. However, impact models seldom incorporate indirect consequences of road disruptions due to probabilistic events. Therefore, this paper proposes an indirect-cost prioritization index to evaluate the indirect impacts of earthquake-induced landslides on road networks. The index quantifies impacts in terms of increased travel time, canceled trips, vehicle operating costs, gas emissions, and maintenance costs. The index integrates the hazard event probability and the relative contribution of each road segment to the total impact. The methodology is then applied to a case study of New Zealand’s South Island. The methodology is firstly applied to a single scenario, where daily economic losses are calculated across the network at approximately NZD 847,000. Secondly, the variability in economic losses across a predefined set of hazard scenarios is discussed. Finally, the methodology is applied using a set of scenarios to calculate the prioritization index. The case study identified State Highway 6 and State Highway 7 as the top-ranked corridors, reflecting their strategic role in connecting the island and their proximity to the Alpine Fault. Indirect economic impacts were primarily driven by detour-related travel time and vehicle operating costs, which account for over 90% of the total consequences. The methodology offers a tool for road agencies to evaluate impacts of disruptions, prioritize investments, and enhance disaster preparedness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106042"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Context matters: practitioners’ perspectives on prepositioning strategies in domestic emergency management 背景问题:从业者对国内应急管理中预先定位策略的看法
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106038
Amir Shariati, Cécile L’Hermitte, Nadia M. Trent, Derek Friday
{"title":"Context matters: practitioners’ perspectives on prepositioning strategies in domestic emergency management","authors":"Amir Shariati,&nbsp;Cécile L’Hermitte,&nbsp;Nadia M. Trent,&nbsp;Derek Friday","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing disaster risks highlight the importance of resource prepositioning as an essential preparedness strategy in domestic Emergency Management (EM). To support timely and effective responses to a disaster, prepositioning decisions should be informed by an understanding of local contexts, actors, and existing logistics capacities. Current literature is dominated by quantitative models, which often overlook these contextual realities, thereby limiting their practical relevance. Guided by contingency theory, this qualitative study explores how contextual factors influence prepositioning decisions in EM, using Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) as the primary context.</div><div>Thirty semi-structured interviews with practitioners from various organisational levels reveal that prepositioning is highly context-dependent, influenced by geographical characteristics, available capacities and physical resources, and enabling conditions such as transport infrastructure, funding, and security. Findings also illustrate that although a decentralised, community-based approach is applicable in small rural areas with high isolation risks, urban settings and broader scales require hybrid strategies based on collaborative approaches and multitiered stockpiling networks.</div><div>The study proposes a framework that conceptualises the relationship among contextual factors, prepositioning strategies, and performance objectives related to timely response, equity, and cost-efficiency. It strengthens the alignment of prepositioning strategies with contextual realities, emphasises the critical need for central funding, and provides practical insights on the roles of communities, the private sector, and partner organisations in implementing prepositioning. While based in the NZ context, the findings are relevant for other countries seeking to improve preparedness strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106038"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of ageing on the seismic risk of RC wall–frame buildings under sequential earthquakes and consequences for insurance premiums 老化对连续地震作用下钢筋混凝土框架墙结构地震风险的影响及其对保险费用的影响
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106039
Nilanjan Samanta , Kaustubh Dasgupta , Luigi Di-Sarno , Andrea Prota
{"title":"Effect of ageing on the seismic risk of RC wall–frame buildings under sequential earthquakes and consequences for insurance premiums","authors":"Nilanjan Samanta ,&nbsp;Kaustubh Dasgupta ,&nbsp;Luigi Di-Sarno ,&nbsp;Andrea Prota","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In India, a large stock of RC wall–frame buildings with deficient structural wall plan density (SWPD) is potentially vulnerable to combined ageing-induced deterioration and repeated seismic excitation. The primary objective of the present study is to evaluate the seismic risk of such building stock and to analytically derive the insurance parameters for the risk management, considering both ageing effects and sequential ground motion (GM) records. Three levels of corrosion rate (CR) or corrosion deterioration are considered, representing severe ageing, moderate ageing, and no ageing. A performance-based framework is adopted in which nonlinear response history analyses are used to develop seismic fragility and vulnerability functions. These functions are subsequently integrated with a site-specific seismic hazard curve to estimate annual seismic damage rate and seismic financial risk. The results show that the combined influence of corrosion deterioration and sequential GMs leads to a substantial increase in annual seismic damage rate, with the maximum amplification observed at near-collapse damage state. The financial risk results further show that the sequential GM records increase absolute financial loss with the increase in corrosion rate; however, its relative (multiplicative) impact across different hazard levels is highest for no ageing effect (CR = 0%). Finally, using a novel approach, the insurance parameters are determined, and the effect of corrosion-induced deterioration on the annual premium rate is quantified. Overall, the findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for the coupled effects of corrosion deterioration and sequential GMs in the seismic risk evaluation of RC wall–frame building stock. The results also provide quantitative support for risk-informed mitigation strategies and insurance decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106039"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Humanitarian assistance and its expected behavior and land use changes: Insights from Bangladesh and Kenya 人道主义援助及其预期行为和土地利用变化:来自孟加拉国和肯尼亚的见解
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106036
Diana W. Githu , Zack Guido , Erica A. Goto , Corrie Hannah , James Kamunge , Eligah Mutanda , Tim J. Finan , Padraic Finan , Karyn M. Fox , Suzanne Nelson , Prashanti Sharma , Rohit Mukherjee
{"title":"Humanitarian assistance and its expected behavior and land use changes: Insights from Bangladesh and Kenya","authors":"Diana W. Githu ,&nbsp;Zack Guido ,&nbsp;Erica A. Goto ,&nbsp;Corrie Hannah ,&nbsp;James Kamunge ,&nbsp;Eligah Mutanda ,&nbsp;Tim J. Finan ,&nbsp;Padraic Finan ,&nbsp;Karyn M. Fox ,&nbsp;Suzanne Nelson ,&nbsp;Prashanti Sharma ,&nbsp;Rohit Mukherjee","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106036","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106036","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disasters routinely lead to acute impacts and prolonged suffering around the globe. Humanitarian programming (HP) provides short-term aid to communities and nations alleviating hardship. Traditionally, and more conspicuously, the focus of the HP interventions has been on providing immediate relief and support in the aftermath of extreme social and environmental events. However, HP often involves layered interventions that not only address immediate needs but also develop individual and systemic capacity with benefits that persist to the future. Although there is evidence suggesting that short-term humanitarian interventions contribute to longer-term resilience and development, how HP interventions influence behaviors have not been thoroughly explored. This manuscript examines expected behavior and land-use changes from HP interventions using a two-phase mixed-methods design. We systematically analyze 40 HP programs funded by the US Agency for International Development's Bureau of Humanitarian Assistance across Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, and Kenya. We also hold discussions with 71 HP implementers from 25 humanitarian organizations in Bangladesh and Kenya to elicit expected changes and challenges in monitoring them. The findings highlight a critical gap in systematically evaluating longitudinal data across diverse contexts to assess the enduring effects of various short-term humanitarian interventions. We argue that a more comprehensive assessment of the impacts of humanitarian investments should include monitoring and evaluation of behavior and land-use changes over time. This approach would provide valuable insights into how short-term interventions shape long-term resilience, guiding more strategic and equitable resource allocation, further enhancing our understanding of the broader impacts of short-term interventions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"135 ","pages":"Article 106036"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147401852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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