International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献_第3页

Cognitive limits of perceived flood risk on residential property values 认知洪水风险对住宅物业价值的限制

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104948

引用次数: 0

Post-disaster housing recovery estimation: Data and lessons learned from the 2017 Tubbs and 2018 Camp Fires 灾后住房恢复估算：2017 年塔布斯大火和 2018 年坎普大火的数据和经验教训

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912

{"title":"Post-disaster housing recovery estimation: Data and lessons learned from the 2017 Tubbs and 2018 Camp Fires","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104912","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Post-wildfire housing recovery is a complex process for which systematically collected data remains scarce. Consequently, our ability to anticipate obstacles and plan for housing recovery from future events is limited. This study leverages housing permit datasets collected in Santa Rosa and Unincorporated Sonoma County, impacted by the 2017 Tubbs Fire, and Paradise, impacted by the 2018 Camp Fire. Permit and tax assessor data are combined to gain insights into the recovery processes for these communities. Although the percentage of rebuilt destroyed homes varies significantly between regions, the peak construction demand occurs around 1.5 years after each wildfire, with a substantial decline in the reconstruction rate after 2.5 years. Moreover, the pace of transition from permit application to reconstruction completion is similar across all three regions. Using this finding, we propose a methodology to forecast the number of parcels rebuilt per unit of time based on observations from prior events. A proof-of-concept application of the proposed methodology indicates that it estimates long-term housing recovery patterns based on permit application data collected within one year of the event. These findings indicate that a longitudinal housing recovery data database would help forecast housing recovery from future disasters by providing a source for early empirical validation of predictive models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The impact of drought and climate change on economy, environment and human health in southern Iran: A qualitative study 干旱和气候变化对伊朗南部经济、环境和人类健康的影响：定性研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104937

{"title":"The impact of drought and climate change on economy, environment and human health in southern Iran: A qualitative study","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104937","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104937","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drought and climate change are one of the most important environmental health challenges of the current century. It has been predicted that the occurrence of drought, its intensity, and its adverse effects on the environment, human health, societies, and economy will increase in the coming decades. This qualitative content analysis study aimed to explore the impact of drought on the lives of people living in the south of Iran. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews with farmers, urban and rural officials, and physicians. A total of 25 interviews were conducted. All interviews were recorded and then transcribed. Data were analyzed using MAXQDA version 18. The concepts raised by interviewees regarding the consequences of drought were categorized into four themes, including economic consequences, environmental hazards, health consequences, and adaptation options; and most of these consequences were inter-related. Participants believed that drought has affected the soil, environment, ecosystem, and the quality and quantity of water, and this can lead to extensive effects on humans’ physical, mental, and community wellbeing. Drought can also cause adverse economic effects, which can further intensify its adverse effects. It seems like the adverse effects of drought in Iran are severe and destructive, and this is due to the mismanagement of water and environmental resources and other socio-economic problems. Fundamental changes in the management of water and environmental resources are necessary.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to Natech accident triggered by earthquakes in a liquor storage tank area 多米诺效应定量风险评估在白酒储罐区地震引发的 Natech 事故中的应用

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104957

{"title":"Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to Natech accident triggered by earthquakes in a liquor storage tank area","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104957","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104957","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Damage to industrial equipment caused by earthquakes is a typical Natech accident. Earthquake damage may cause tank failures and trigger accidental releases of hazardous substances, even a series of fires and explosions, forming a natural hazard-induced domino chain (NHDC), which poses a serious threat to the processing industry. In this study, a whole-process quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodology for earthquake-induced domino accident chains is proposed. In the framework of QRA, specific probit models are used to quantify the damage of earthquakes and to assess the probability of storage tank failure. Besides, pool fires following the leakage of the failed tanks were considered to be the consequence of the earthquake Natech accident. The Mudan thermal radiation model and the threshold model were used to identify the propagation paths of domino effects. Case studies were carried out to investigate the dynamic evolution of fire-related domino effects in different credible accident scenarios, including multiple initial accidents co-occurring. The results show that the combination of multiple initial accident scenarios takes less time to complete domino effect escalation of the overall scenario than a single initial accident scenario and will significantly increase the regional risk indices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A methodology for assessing multiple hazards applied to Sweden 适用于瑞典的多重危害评估方法

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934

{"title":"A methodology for assessing multiple hazards applied to Sweden","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104934","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive efforts through various international initiatives to reduce global warming, it has been determined that human induced climate change is here, that the present scale of disruption of the climate is unprecedented and will continue. Increasing weather volatility can be expected, which will most likely increase exposure to weather related hazards, e.g. wildfires, flooding. The aim of this paper is to present an index-based multi-hazard risk assessment method to assess wildfires and flooding hazard for two municipalities within Sweden. The method is designed to be used by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) for planning purposes and can be modified to take the local FRS's capabilities and local conditions into account, thereby improving hazard preparedness at a local level. The analysis presented indicates that, while the frequency of multi-hazard overlap from wildfires and flooding is greatest in more northern parts of Sweden, the method provides important information even when applied to areas with limited overlap. A variation of the hazard assessment using a box kernel sliding window was studied to investigate the sensitivity of the model for rapid variations of an individual hazard level. Given that resource needs will typically spread over several days for large scale natural hazards, the box kernel approach is valuable in helping to identify a span of days when resources associated with incident response might be needed. In the future, the model should be expanded to include additional single hazards, the application to additional municipalities and extension to FRS planning exercises for natural hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines based on a coupled weighted Bayesian network 基于耦合加权贝叶斯网络的矿井地下泥石流风险分析

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922

{"title":"Risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines based on a coupled weighted Bayesian network","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mines mined by the natural caving method are prone to underground debris flow disasters, resulting in mud gushing blocking roadways, equipment damage and even casualties, which seriously affect the safe operation of mines. To carry out a risk analysis of underground debris flows in mines, quantify the interactions among risk factors in the process of disasters, and identify the main disaster-causing paths, DEMATEL-ISM was used to analyze 18 risk factors related to material sources, geology, water sources and processes. A multilevel network structure model was constructed, and the model was mapped to a Bayesian network (BN). Based on the N-K model, the degree of risk coupling was calculated, the nodes in the BN were coupled and weighted, and diagnostic reasoning for underground debris flows was realized based on posterior probability. The results showed that the risk of debris flow increases with increasing coupling factor. The factors of water source, geology and ore drawing ranked at the top in terms of the probability change rate of the BN nodes, and a main disaster-causing path was obtained by diagnostic reasoning, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of underground debris flow prevention and control measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effects of wire rope isolators on seismic life-cycle cost of UHV bypass switch 钢丝绳隔离器对超高压旁路开关抗震寿命周期成本的影响

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917

{"title":"Effects of wire rope isolators on seismic life-cycle cost of UHV bypass switch","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The seismic isolation devices reduce the seismic vulnerability of the electrical equipment. Accurately assessing the seismic life-cycle cost (SLCC) of the electrical equipment is beneficial in guiding the design and enhancing the seismic resilience of electrical substations and converter stations. To evaluate the effects of the isolator devices on the seismic life-cycle cost of electrical equipment, a SLCC evaluation model was proposed in this study, and the evaluation was conducted on an ultra-high voltage (UHV) bypass switch (BPS) with wire rope isolators (WRI). The model takes into account equipment purchase, maintenance, transportation and installation costs and indirect losses caused by power outages. Afterward, the SLCC and break-even time of the UHV BPS with and without WRIs in different regions were analyzed. The results indicate that beyond the break-even time, the BPS with WRIs becomes more economically viable. Moreover, its economic viability increases as the service life extends. Therefore, in high seismic cost risk areas, it is recommended to adopt seismic isolation devices to ensure the secure and economically efficient operation of electrical equipment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142553307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing and mitigating dwelling collapse risk due to extreme precipitation: A comprehensive study using CNN-RF and GeoDetector 评估和减轻极端降水导致的住宅倒塌风险：使用 CNN-RF 和 GeoDetector 的综合研究

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104918

{"title":"Assessing and mitigating dwelling collapse risk due to extreme precipitation: A comprehensive study using CNN-RF and GeoDetector","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dragon boat rain, the most common extreme precipitation form in South China from May to June with more similar spatial distribution, caused serious loss of people's lives and property. The dwelling collapse is one of the main losses. Previous studies have paid little attention to the dwelling collapse risk caused by dragon boat rain (DCRDBR), the coupling model with CNN and RF applied to its assessment, and the influence of the precipitation process and interaction of natural and social factors on it. To fill these gaps, the CNN-RF was used to calculate the DCRDBR and the DCRDBR map was drawn. The Geodetctor was used to identify the main influencing factors and influencing factor interactions of DCRDBR, due to the spatial stratified heterogeneity of DCRDBR and the ability to obtain the determinant power of single factor and factor interaction. The results show that the F1 score and the AUC value of CNN-RF are 0.96 and 0.81, respectively. The spatial distribution of DCRDBR obtained by CNN-RF is high in the northeast and low in the southwest Guangdong Province. The total precipitation has the strongest determinant power (q = 0.54) followed by Slope (q = 0.52). The average determinant power of factors describing the precipitation process is 0.25. The combination of total precipitation and GDP/capita has the strongest determinant power of all combinations of natural and socio-economic factors (q = 0.72) followed by the total precipitation and ratio of urban population (q = 0.71). This study demonstrates the ability of CNN-RF applied to the DCRDBR assessment due to the integration of feature extraction and anti-overfitting ability, and identifies the influence of precipitation processes and the interaction of natural and socio-economic factors on the DCRDBR. It provides a solid scientific basis for crafting strategies to mitigate the impact of dragon boat rain and is conducive to the city's sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strategic hazard mitigation planning 减灾战略规划

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104923

引用次数: 0

WASH recommendations for improving disaster preparedness and recovery in schools in Indonesia 关于改善印度尼西亚学校备灾和灾后恢复工作的讲卫生运动建议

IF 4.2 1区地球科学

International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104924

{"title":"WASH recommendations for improving disaster preparedness and recovery in schools in Indonesia","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Access to functional and clean toilets which maintain privacy and dignity and support girls’ Menstrual hygiene management (MHM) plays a crucial role to getting girls back to school post-disaster. This could also help in managing feelings of shame and disgust experienced when using toilets in schools in post disaster settings. In this paper, we report on our assessment of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities in schools three-years post the 2018 multi-hazard event in Indonesia. We used a mixed-methods approach using visual observations, interviews with school principals, surveys with schoolgirls and focus group discussions with schoolgirls and teachers to understand the lived experiences of students using toilets at school. Our results highlight that across schools descriptive and injunctive social norms were supportive of littering, inadequate toilet facilities for girls to manage their menstruation and bullying and antisocial behaviour by opening toilet doors while the facilities were occupied. Based on these results, we developed two types of interventions, physical and behavioural, piloted in three schools to increase WASH and MHM awareness and the safety of sanitation facilities. Our interventions showed that approaches for WASH interventions in schools can only be designed if we understand the local barriers to carrying out interventions that integrate maintenance plans. We provide recommendations to support practitioners in mitigating risk and improving circumstances for girls in schools in Indonesia, which have the potential to address SDG 4 on inclusive and equitable education and SDG 5 on gender equality and girls’ empowerment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142528286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0