International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

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Business continuity planning in visiting nurse stations in Japan: A nationwide cross-sectional study 日本访问护士站的业务连续性计划:一项全国性的横断面研究
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105829
Jun Sato , Chie Ishida , Aya Iguchi , Taro Kanno , Taichi Sato , Shiho Nishida , Takayuki Kanesaka , Risa Okada , Kanako Kawaguchi , Ryo Horiike
{"title":"Business continuity planning in visiting nurse stations in Japan: A nationwide cross-sectional study","authors":"Jun Sato ,&nbsp;Chie Ishida ,&nbsp;Aya Iguchi ,&nbsp;Taro Kanno ,&nbsp;Taichi Sato ,&nbsp;Shiho Nishida ,&nbsp;Takayuki Kanesaka ,&nbsp;Risa Okada ,&nbsp;Kanako Kawaguchi ,&nbsp;Ryo Horiike","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ensuring continuity of home-based healthcare services during disasters is a critical challenge in disaster-prone countries such as Japan. Visiting Nurse Stations (VNSs) provide essential care to homebound individuals, yet many remain unprepared for emergencies. This study examined the status of Business Continuity Planning (BCP) among VNSs in Japan during March–April 2023 and identified factors associated with its implementation. We conducted a cross-sectional survey using stratified random sampling, collecting data via postal and online questionnaires. Analyses included descriptive statistics, weighted estimates, Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, and logistic regression. Only 31.6 % of VNSs had implemented a BCP, while 62.8 % planned to implement one by the end of March 2024. CART analysis identified smaller organizational scale and lower risk perception as key predictors of BCP absence: specifically, fewer clients, fewer full-time equivalent (FTE) nurses, and lack of experience with natural hazard-induced disasters (NHIDs). Logistic regression confirmed that fewer FTE nurses were significantly associated with BCP absence (OR = 0.87, 95 % CI 0.78–0.97; p = 0.02). To promote universal implementation, targeted support is needed for small-scale VNSs and for enhancing risk perception. Flexible, scalable tools and regional collaboration may help strengthen both the adoption and operationalization of BCP—particularly through regular reviews, training, and simulation exercises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105829"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A new generation of global flood protection database 新一代全球防洪数据库
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105823
Julien Boulange , Yukiko Hirabayashi , Andi Besse Rimba , Prakat Modi
{"title":"A new generation of global flood protection database","authors":"Julien Boulange ,&nbsp;Yukiko Hirabayashi ,&nbsp;Andi Besse Rimba ,&nbsp;Prakat Modi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding has long-term, costly, and devastating impacts, necessitating the construction of protective structures. Artificial levees, also known as dikes, dykes, embankments, or stopbanks, are essential for modern floodplain management. These anthropologic structures disconnect rivers from their floodplains, containing floodwaters and protecting adjacent land from inundation. However, despite advancements in Earth observation and computational modeling, flood assessments remain inaccurate due to limited, restricted, or incomplete data on levee locations.</div><div>In this study, we systematically compiled national-scale levee data to develop the Global Levee Database Inventory (GLDI), a new-generation of global flood protection data. All information used in the GLDI is meticulously documented, ensuring transparency and enabling targeted updates, or temporal exclusions for specific analyses. Currently, the GLDI integrates 638 distinct sources in 26 languages. Beyond enhancing flood risk assessment, the GLDI will support the evaluation of machine learning algorithms designed to automatically detect and characterize artificial levees.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105823"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145156083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How do flood risk–socioeconomic interactions influence household income dynamics in shrinking cities of the Rust Belt in the US? 洪水风险-社会经济相互作用如何影响美国锈带萎缩城市的家庭收入动态?
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105824
Young Eun Kim , Jaekyung Lee , Hyungkyoo Kim
{"title":"How do flood risk–socioeconomic interactions influence household income dynamics in shrinking cities of the Rust Belt in the US?","authors":"Young Eun Kim ,&nbsp;Jaekyung Lee ,&nbsp;Hyungkyoo Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105824","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105824","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105824"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multi-decade analysis of flood risks to community infrastructure in Philadelphia 费城社区基础设施几十年洪水风险分析
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105825
Youngjun Son, Ning Sun, Cade Reesman, David Judi, Xue Li
{"title":"Multi-decade analysis of flood risks to community infrastructure in Philadelphia","authors":"Youngjun Son,&nbsp;Ning Sun,&nbsp;Cade Reesman,&nbsp;David Judi,&nbsp;Xue Li","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105825","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105825","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flood events increasingly pose a significant threat to community infrastructure (hereafter CI), which can potentially disrupt their essential functions and services within communities. This is particularly concerning in coastal urban areas, where the complexity of urban flood dynamics is exacerbated by their exposure to coastal, fluvial, and pluvial flooding. To address such challenge, we characterize flood risks to CIs in Philadelphia based on property-level simulations of flood events over a 35-year period (1985–2019) using an integrated coastal-hydrologic-hydrodynamic modeling approach. The characterizations of CI flood risks consider multiple perspectives, including the relative distributions of flood exposures, hazards, risks to various CI types by different flood drivers, assessments of individual and aggregated flood damages, and geospatial patterns of CI flood risks in relation to flood-related variables. Additionally, a scenario analysis examines indirect and cascading disruptions of interconnected infrastructure caused by flood-induced power outages at substations. Our analysis identifies frequent, localized damages associated with fluvial flood events as well as severe, extensive damages from compound coastal-fluvial-pluvial flood events. Notably, commercial and industrial CI facilities are particularly susceptible to floods due to their concentrations across low-lying areas. Furthermore, our study presents an approach that, for the first time, utilizes concentration curves for infrastructure, to enhance flood management planning by prioritizing flood mitigation measures tailored to identified flood risk characteristics. Overall, the CI risk characterizations for past flood events provide a foundational understanding that can inform targeted allocations of limited resources towards risk-based investments in flood management and establish a baseline for future risk assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105825"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145156181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multilevel optimization strategy for enhancing seismic safety and energy performance in school building portfolios 提高学校建筑组合抗震安全和节能性能的多级优化策略
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105822
Abbas FathiAzar, Serena Cattari
{"title":"Multilevel optimization strategy for enhancing seismic safety and energy performance in school building portfolios","authors":"Abbas FathiAzar,&nbsp;Serena Cattari","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105822","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105822","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses two critical gaps in current seismic risk mitigation practices for school infrastructure. First, it introduces a safety-oriented, multi-level decision-making framework that systematically integrates structural safety, cost-efficiency, and implementation feasibility into a unified methodology. Unlike conventional approaches that often treat safety as one of several competing objectives, the proposed framework enforces life-safety as a non-negotiable constraint throughout the prioritization process. This emphasis emerges directly from stakeholder engagement. Second, the study fills an important scale-related gap by operationalizing risk assessment and intervention planning at the portfolio level. In doing so, it provides a crucial link between territorial-scale assessments and building-specific evaluations. Applying the framework to a portfolio of Italian school buildings shows its effectiveness, with results revealing strong variability in risk metrics and confirming that factors like the number of stories and construction period significantly influence both safety and loss. Retrofit cost-effectiveness is shown to depend strongly on initial building conditions, with older and more vulnerable structures delivering greater safety gains per unit of investment. Although energy retrofits were analyzed separately, findings suggest that standalone energy upgrades offer limited financial viability, reinforcing the value of integrated seismic-energy strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105822"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145109742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stochastic modeling of radar-derived maximum estimated size of hail for scenario-based hail loss estimation 基于场景的冰雹损失估计中雷达最大冰雹估计大小的随机建模
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105819
Katsuichiro Goda , Yao Li , Sudesh Boodoo , Julian Brimelow , Keith Porter , Gregory A. Kopp
{"title":"Stochastic modeling of radar-derived maximum estimated size of hail for scenario-based hail loss estimation","authors":"Katsuichiro Goda ,&nbsp;Yao Li ,&nbsp;Sudesh Boodoo ,&nbsp;Julian Brimelow ,&nbsp;Keith Porter ,&nbsp;Gregory A. Kopp","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study develops a stochastic method for simulating the maximum estimated size of hail (MESH) values at locations within a hail swath and conducts a scenario-based hail loss estimation at regional scale. The method is based on MESHmax (which is obtained by taking the maximum value of MESH data over a hailstorm per location) and hail insurance loss data for the June 13th<sup>,</sup> 2020, July 2nd<sup>,</sup> 2021, and August 5th<sup>,</sup> 2024 Calgary hailstorms. The stochastic MESHmax modeling identifies the hail swath (centerline and surrounding points) using MESH data and characterizes MESHmax along the centerline of the hail swath and at off-centerline locations. In the proposed method, spatial correlations of the MESHmax values along the centerline and off-centerline locations are considered. In addition, an empirical vulnerability curve is developed by relating MESHmax to insurance losses for residential properties. The scenario-based hail loss estimation generates numerous realizations of regional MESHmax maps and integrates them with a hail vulnerability curve for residential properties that is derived from the insurance loss data of three recent hailstorms in Calgary. An illustrative hail loss estimation is performed by considering a hypothetical event similar to the June 13th<sup>,</sup> 2020 Calgary hailstorm. Using the developed scenario-based hail loss estimation tool, the probability distribution of the regional hail loss can be obtained. The stochastic simulation of the 2020 hailstorm is capable of reasonably hindcasting actual loss in that event. The sensitivity analysis results highlight significant influences of spatial variability of MESHmax values and uncertainty of the insurance loss generations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105819"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
National exposure model for industrial structures in Chile 智利工业结构的国家风险模型
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105816
Felipe Sánchez , Paula Aguirre , Hernán Santa María
{"title":"National exposure model for industrial structures in Chile","authors":"Felipe Sánchez ,&nbsp;Paula Aguirre ,&nbsp;Hernán Santa María","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105816","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105816","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 2010 Maule mega-earthquake produced estimated damage in Chile of 30 billion dollars, of which until today, the percentage corresponding to the cost associated with damage to industrial structures is unknown. This has generated concern regarding what will happen in the next major seismic event. Therefore, the need arises to incorporate seismic risk information in government disaster risk reduction measures.</div><div>In recent years, progress has been made in exposure models for residential buildings, but only a small number of investigations include industrial buildings, mainly due to the lack of information available in the databases and the difficulty in obtaining additional information from the private sector. This generates the need to computationally collect and process data obtained from existing databases and information obtained remotely.</div><div>The result of this research consists of the definition of a methodology and subsequent obtaining of an exposure model at the national level that includes the quantification, geographical location and the definition of characteristic typologies of industrial buildings in Chile, through its own flexible taxonomy that provides the necessary information for the subsequent structural modeling of each constructive typology. Given the limited information available and restricted access to industrial sites, the research adopts a hybrid methodology that combines statistical analysis of public cadastral data with remote visual surveys. In addition to obtaining an exposure model, the available information sources are discussed and compared, indicating the associated uncertainties and the assumptions considered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105816"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145156194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social profiles and response patterns during the 2025 Iberian Peninsula power outage. The case of Spain 2025年伊比利亚半岛停电期间的社会概况和反应模式。西班牙的例子
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105813
Raquel González-Pozo
{"title":"Social profiles and response patterns during the 2025 Iberian Peninsula power outage. The case of Spain","authors":"Raquel González-Pozo","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On April 28, 2025, a large-scale power outage disrupted essential services across Spain, Portugal, Andorra, and parts of southern France, leaving more than 50 million people without electricity. The event affected critical infrastructures such as transportation, telecommunications, and healthcare, raising concerns about the population's resilience in the face of unexpected crises. This study focuses on the case of Spain, using data from a representative flash survey conducted after the power outage, and analyzes the population's response with statistical techniques for categorical data, specifically multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). The analysis focuses on three main aspects: emotional impact (fear), material preparedness (emergency kit), and access to information. The results reveal marked differences among social groups. Young adults, women, and the unemployed reported greater emotional vulnerability, while older and inactive individuals were less emotionally affected. Preparedness was also unevenly distributed, with individuals with higher education more likely to be prepared. Regarding access to information, the data show a stronger association between middle-aged individuals, lower emotional impact, and the perception of having received sufficient information during the power outage. By identifying distinct response patterns, the study contributes to a better understanding of the social dimensions of crisis management and complements the existing literature on disasters and unexpected situations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105813"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145109740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prioritise risks and improve adaptation strategies in the Veneto coast through the application of a custom AI tool 通过应用自定义人工智能工具,优先考虑威尼托海岸的风险并改进适应战略
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105818
Maria Katherina Dal Barco , Veronica Casartelli , Marcello Sanò , Sebastiano Vascon , Silvia Torresan , Andrea Critto
{"title":"Prioritise risks and improve adaptation strategies in the Veneto coast through the application of a custom AI tool","authors":"Maria Katherina Dal Barco ,&nbsp;Veronica Casartelli ,&nbsp;Marcello Sanò ,&nbsp;Sebastiano Vascon ,&nbsp;Silvia Torresan ,&nbsp;Andrea Critto","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105818","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105818","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has emerged as one of the most severe global challenges of our time, with rising temperatures and unprecedented shifts in climate patterns. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable, facing compounded impacts from sea-level rise and increasingly frequent extreme weather events, demanding urgent need for proactive and comprehensive adaptation measures to protect coastal regions, recently defined as sentinels of climate change.</div><div>A paradigm shift towards a multi-hazard risk perspective is increasingly recognised as essential in risk assessment and management. Moreover, Artificial Intelligence (AI) have emerged as promising tools to aid decision-making processes in coastal risk management and climate change adaptation. This study introduces COAST-AId, a custom Large Language Model designed to facilitate the analysis and synthesis of diverse information relevant for climate risk assessment and management along the Veneto coast. The tool facilitates the application of the risk assessment framework proposed in the European Climate Risk Assessment analysing the specific climate risk challenges of this region. The framework combines three key dimensions – i.e., risk identification, risk analysis, policy analysis – to prioritise risks and define urgent actions. The application of the COAST-AId tool was performed in close cooperation with local stakeholders involved in the MYRIAD-EU project where a systemic multi-hazard risk framework is considered to support the development of disaster risk management and climate adaptation pathways.</div><div>The tool's performance was evaluated by stakeholders, highlighting critical risks in the Veneto coastal as well as opportunities for enhancing coastal resilience and improving risk reduction and adaptation strategies at the regional to local scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105818"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Perceptions, hopes, and concerns regarding the possibilities of artificial intelligence in weather warning contexts 关于人工智能在天气预警环境中的可能性的感知、希望和关注
IF 4.5 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105817
Thomas Kox , Sara Harrison , Ferdinand Ziegler , Lars Gerhold
{"title":"Perceptions, hopes, and concerns regarding the possibilities of artificial intelligence in weather warning contexts","authors":"Thomas Kox ,&nbsp;Sara Harrison ,&nbsp;Ferdinand Ziegler ,&nbsp;Lars Gerhold","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105817","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used in disaster risk reduction, including early warning systems (EWS) for weather hazards. While AI promises faster data processing and improved forecast accuracy, concerns remain about automation bias, reduced human oversight, or accountability, and erosion of professional judgment. Despite rapid technological advances, the perceptions of the weather warning community remain underrepresented in current research. To address this, we conducted an Argumentative Delphi study with experts from the 2024 WMO HIWeather Final Conference. Participants assessed AI's impact on 13 key aspects of weather warnings – including quality, interpretability, accountability, and social bias – and shared hopes and concerns. Overall, participants expressed cautious optimism. AI is expected to improve the goodness of warnings, potentially cascading into broader dimensions of warning efficacy, public trust, and institutional responsibility. However, concerns include over-reliance on AI, erosion of human involvement, and challenges in maintaining a single authoritative voice in warning communication. Rather than viewing AI as replacement for human decision-making, it is seen as decision-support tool that augments professional expertise. Tailored warnings and multilingual communication emerged as promising areas for AI application, though issues of data bias and accessibility remain. Thus, ethical implementation is vital to ensure inclusiveness and alignment global disaster risk reduction goals. Finally, the introduction of AI touches the ‘professional core’ of weather warning as an occupation and prompts experts to define their evolving roles and core competencies in the face of technological advancements. Future research should explore how generative AI may reshape forecasting and the profession itself.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105817"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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