International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Future wildfires increase the risk of the residential insurance gap","authors":"Shona Elliot-Kerr ,&nbsp;Erica Marshall ,&nbsp;Trent Penman ,&nbsp;Ella Plumanns-Pouton","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105814","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105814","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Altered fire regimes pose unprecedented threats to residential properties in many parts of the world. Consequently, insurers are less willing to insure properties from the threat of wildfire or will do so at an inflated premium. Uninsurance or under insurance (the insurance gap) may have cascading impacts on property values, stranding residential assets, and amplifying economic inequalities. Here, we aim to quantify impacts of future climate-driven wildfires on residential properties, and the risk of the insurance gap from 2024 to 2099. We determine how this differs to historical wildfire impacts, in relation to socio-economic context, and spatial planning schemes. We ran spatially explicit wildfire regime simulations for five case study areas within Southeastern Australia. We compared the simulated wildfire impacts to data on residential properties, socio-economic status, spatial planning schemes, and the historical wildfire impacts from the preceding 75 years. Across all regions, a total of 274,657 houses (16.7 %) were projected to be burnt by wildfire within the next 75 years. Almost all of these houses, 96 %, were projected to experience an increase of at least one fire compared to the last 75 years. Most houses (86.6 %) projected to burn are currently occupied by low or middle class and a quarter were in the bounds of current fire plan building schemes. We suggest that transformative change may be required to help mitigate the potential increases to the residential insurance gap, both in the financial tools available to insure residential assets from wildfire, and the planning of where residences can safely be built into the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105814"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145109741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel methodology for assessing social vulnerability in depopulating rural communities: Application to Montesinho Natural Park, Portugal","authors":"Sandra Graus ,&nbsp;Tiago Miguel Ferreira ,&nbsp;Graça Vasconcelos ,&nbsp;Javier Ortega ,&nbsp;João Sarmento","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105815","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105815","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105815"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Establishing closure criteria for coastal roadways under flooding conditions","authors":"Faezeh Maghsoodifar,&nbsp;Soheil Radfar,&nbsp;Hamed Moftakhari,&nbsp;Hamid Moradkhani","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105805","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105805","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing frequency and intensity of floods pose major challenges for transport networks, particularly in coastal cities. In addition to serving as vital arteries for commuter traffic and freight movement, coastal roads form essential links in the urban transportation network, connecting communities, businesses, and critical services. This study presents a framework for assessing the impacts of flooding on transportation systems and establishing road closure criteria for coastal roads with urban connectivity importance. We integrate Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic modeling with empirical road closure data, geospatial analysis, and vehicle stability assessments to evaluate flood hazards and develop practical management criteria. The framework incorporates the effects of sea level rise and more extreme weather events, allowing for an assessment of changing flood hazards over time. Analysis of empirical closure records enables the development of four distinct flood severity thresholds based on depth of inundation. These thresholds incorporate both flood depth and velocity, providing a detailed hazard assessment that supports the development of road closure criteria to address the increasing challenges posed by flooding. Findings indicate that, without proactive adaptation measures, coastal roadways are likely to transition from episodic flooding to chronic inundation. This underscores the importance of adaptive design and operational management strategies to ensure safe and resilient transportation infrastructure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105805"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A systemic approach to complex landslide risk reduction in coastal tourist areas: The case of Sirolo, central Italy","authors":"Elisa Mammoliti ,&nbsp;Eleonora Gioia ,&nbsp;Davide Fronzi ,&nbsp;Adriano Mancini ,&nbsp;Giorgio Mattioli ,&nbsp;Roberta Bonì ,&nbsp;Fabrizio Pontoni ,&nbsp;Stefano Marabini ,&nbsp;Stefano Mazzoli ,&nbsp;Alberto Tazioli ,&nbsp;Alessandra Negri","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105810","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105810","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Coastal landslides in structurally complex and tourist-rich areas, such as the Monte Conero promontory in central Italy, pose significant challenges to environmental stability and public safety. In these settings, complex landslides often involve deep-seated translational movements evolving into sudden debris collapses at the footslope, generating significant hazards in beach areas heavily frequented by tourists. This study develops a conceptual, transferable model for complex landslide behavior in the Sirolo coastal sector in an integrated Hazard–Exposure–Vulnerability framework. The hazard component is investigated by systematically integrating multi-source data, including COSMO-SkyMed and Sentinel-1 Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) data, <em>in-situ</em> inclinometer and piezometric time series, and high-resolution geological and geomorphological field mapping. Rainfall analyses and an Extreme Rainfall Periodic Index (ERPI) were used to explore the correlation between precipitation distribution and kinematic responses of the slope, offering an empirical insight into seasonal hazard modulation. To assess exposure, we developed a deep learning model to estimate beach attendance using limited Google Earth imagery (5 useable acquisition dates, moderate resolution), calibrated with regional tourism statistics, enabling a spatially and temporally explicit assessment of human presence. Finally, to explore vulnerability, a face-to-face survey was carried out to document gaps in visitor awareness of risk and civil-protection procedures. This integrated approach offers enhanced predictive capacity and supports targeted mitigation and communication measures in coastal environments characterized by complex landslides and intense seasonal human activity. To the authors knowledge, this is the first study integrating geological monitoring, rainfall indices, satellite data, deep learning-based exposure, and tourist risk perception into a systemic coastal landslide risk framework.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105810"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145156082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disability inclusion in local emergency management: Evidence from a national survey of emergency managers","authors":"Iskender Mambetkadyrov ,&nbsp;Qing Miao ,&nbsp;Sandra Rothenberg ,&nbsp;Brian Tomaszewski ,&nbsp;James Fugate ,&nbsp;Jason Rotoli","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105808","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105808","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Local emergency management agencies (EMAs) are on the front line of providing essential services to protect their communities from disasters, yet their efforts often fall short in addressing the needs of populations with disabilities (PWD). Based on a nationwide survey of county government emergency managers, this paper examines organizational practices adopted by local EMAs to advance disability inclusion, identifies barriers to their implementation, and explores whether broader disability-inclusive actions correlate with enhanced deaf/hard of hearing (DHH)-specific services. We find that local EMAs report more commonly engaging in inclusion practices for PWD that align with existing planning and collaboration practices such as incorporating disability considerations into emergency planning and assessments, while other practices are largely not implemented, in part because of financial and staffing limitations. We also find that these disability-inclusive actions taken by local EMAs are strongly positively correlated with increased variety and accessibility of DHH services. Many of these DHH services focus on communication, of which there was reliance on a few common practices such as using written language. Given the range of communication needs and preferences in the DHH community, these practices may not meet the needs of some DHH persons. These findings highlight the need for targeted strategies to advance disability inclusion and enhance emergency management outcomes for PWD, particularly DHH populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105808"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A rapid and quantitative post-wildfire damage assessment of buildings in the 2025 Palisades fire in California based on InSAR","authors":"Ya-Nan Du ,&nbsp;De-Cheng Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Timely identification of post-wildfire damage information is critical for protecting communities and infrastructure. Yet extreme thermal conditions and limited ground accessibility often constrain the effectiveness of traditional assessment methods. This study presents a novel approach for inferring post-wildfire building damage based on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). Instead of directly observing structural damage, we use InSAR to capture vertical surface deformations induced by thermal disturbances during the 2025 Palisades Fire in Los Angeles County, California. The deformation patterns under intense wildfire, such as thermal expansion during heating and subsidence caused by thermal contraction after cooling, as well as soil moisture loss, etc., can be extracted by comparing pre- and post-fire SAR images, and then spatially correlated with building footprints and optical imagery to infer damage intensity. The case study results show that this InSAR-based approach effectively identifies zones of probable structural damage according to deformation intensity, providing a cost-efficient, physics-based supplement to existing post-wildfire damage assessment techniques.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105809"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145045435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When mountains shrugged: periodicity of climate calamities and politics of waiting in Himachal Pradesh","authors":"Nilamber Chhetri ,&nbsp;Simashree Bora","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105801","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105801","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The highlands of South Asia have been facing unprecedented climatic calamities in recent years, which can be attributed to a multitude of natural and human factors. Severe rainfall, followed by landslides, flash floods, and cloudbursts, has caused substantial economic loss, loss of life and property, and other concomitant effects. Taking small sites in the Mandi district of Himachal Pradesh in India, as a case study, this paper discusses the impact of landslides and flash floods on the lives of local people and the state's response to such conditions. The paper problematizes the temporalities of disaster and the periodicity of its recurrence, leading to uncertainty of the impending calamities while generating risk to the vulnerable people living in abjection in the aftermath of the disaster. The paper does not strive to explain the phenomenon's occurrence but instead an analyzes how people cope with such disasters and deal with the losses in their everyday lives during the prolonged period of waiting in the interstitial and interjacent spaces between disasters. It discusses the memorialization of such events, their circular periodicity, and the cultural rationale, which together help us to think anew about disasters that will potentially aid in preparedness and prevention against such extreme climatic events in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105801"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What remains: Disaster risk and emergency preparedness in a Chilean mining town","authors":"Nigel Wight ,&nbsp;Jill Harris ,&nbsp;Angelica A. Andrade ,&nbsp;Deanna Kemp","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On 28 March 1965, an earthquake triggered the collapse of a mine waste facility at the El Soldado copper mine in central Chile. The failure released a massive volume of tailings that destroyed the adjacent El Cobre settlement and caused significant loss of life. Most of the victims remain buried beneath the tailings. Despite the scale of the disaster, the mine resumed operations and continues to operate today. Survivors and their families, who carry the trauma of loss from 60 years earlier, now live downstream of the vastly expanded El Torito tailings facility. This qualitative study draws on a small-sample set of interviews with survivors and family members to examine how past disaster experiences shape present-day understandings of disaster risk. Participants reported a strong awareness of natural and industrial hazards and described their own efforts to prepare for a future disaster. These behaviours were shaped by lived experience and communicative memory of the 1965 collapse. Participants described limited engagement with institutions and little change to the physical or social conditions that made the original disaster possible. Vulnerability persists because the same structural and spatial arrangements remain in place; that is, the underlying conditions of disaster at El Cobre have not been resolved but reproduced. Our study reveals some of the deeper patterns through which disaster becomes embedded in everyday life and sustained by distant institutions and large-scale industrial systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105811"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic risk assessment of WUI fires based on knowledge-driven approach and scenario simulation","authors":"Xiaoxiao Ju ,&nbsp;Shaobo Zhong ,&nbsp;Zichen Yue ,&nbsp;Wei Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid development of urbanization has significantly increased the risk of fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Traditional risk assessment methods, which lack in-depth semantic expression of risk formation and rapid perception of disaster and environmental data, struggle to meet the demands for real-time and accurate assessment. This study focuses on the risk assessment and prevention of WUI fires. A dynamic fire risk assessment framework is proposed, merging flame spread simulation and impact analysis to quantify evolving hazards and exposure. This framework dynamically reflects the process of fire spread, fire hazard, and the exposure of vulnerable entities. Based on multi-source heterogeneous data and a knowledge meta-model of WUI fires, a WUI fire system ontology is created, and A spatiotemporal semantic graph database enables the integrated unification of fire scenario construction and knowledge-driven simulation. The research integrates WUI fire risk semantics with fire behavior simulation, coupling knowledge bases with simulation models to develop and innovate methods for fire risk assessment, providing robust support for WUI fire prevention, control, and emergency management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"130 ","pages":"Article 105796"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"IMM: An Integrated Maturity Model for enhancing disaster resilience: A comparative analysis and framework proposal","authors":"Ricardo Gacitua","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105781","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105781","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural disasters are intensifying in frequency and magnitude due to climate change and urban expansion, placing unprecedented demands on preparedness, response and recovery systems. Existing maturity models address specific facets of disaster management – such as resilience, emergency response or data interoperability – but remain fragmented and lack an integrative perspective. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Integrated Maturity Model (IMM), a unified six-stage framework that guides organizations through Awareness, Preparedness, Coordination, Resilience and Optimization. Drawing on a comparative analysis of established models, the IMM incorporates stakeholder collaboration, technology integration and policy alignment into each stage. We validated the IMM via expert workshops, multi-case studies in Chile and a 48-hour volcanic eruption simulation, measuring decision-making speed, data-sharing accuracy and protocol adherence, and tracking maturity progression over six months with linear mixed-effects models. Results demonstrate statistically significant improvements in response time (up to 40%), resource efficiency (up to 35%) and community resilience, as well as enhanced inter-agency collaboration and sustained adoption. By synthesizing best practices into a scalable, adaptable tool, the IMM offers practitioners and policymakers a comprehensive roadmap for strengthening disaster resilience across diverse contexts.</div><div>Validated through expert workshops, multi-case studies, and scenario-based testing in Chile’s national context, the model offers early insights into its practical viability and incremental transferability to similar high-risk environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"129 ","pages":"Article 105781"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145019915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}