International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Investigating climate change adaptation strategies among informal residents in Kumasi through the lenses of the social action and social control theories","authors":"Michael Osei Asibey ,&nbsp;Vivian Yeboah","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The urban poor in informal settlements in Ghana remain exposed and vulnerable to climate-induced hazards. Their exclusion from official adaptation interventions, undeniably, calls for social mechanisms to enable them to adapt to climate change hazards such as heatwaves and floods. Individuals may contribute to exacerbating climate-induced hazards or employ adaptation measures as a common practice or due to their connectedness to a group, as hypothesised by the social action and social control theories, respectively. There is, however, no known study on the empirical and theoretical contributions of these theories to influencing climate change adaptation efforts in urban Africa. At best, studies have looked at the importance of individual and community skills, and assets to adapting to climate change hazards. The study is underpinned by the social action and social control theories to explore how elements of the theories shape hazard reduction and adaptation efforts. 367 household interviews and, four focus group discussions were conducted in two of Kumasi's largest informal settlements – Aboabo and Asawase – in addition to seven relevant agency interviews. We found that most households employed several adaptation measures because they saw other residents do the same which was confirmed by the Chi-square test statistic (χ2 = 4.968, p &lt; 0.000) and as hypothesised by the social action theory. Similarly, as hypothesised by the social control theory, we also found differences in the adaptation measures employed by households belonging to identified environment-related groups (χ2 = 21.465, p &lt; 0.001). This was largely because among other activities, the education and training exercises undertaken by the groups influenced the knowledge levels of members about climate change hazards and adaptation measures. The groups offer emotional, monetary, material, and practical support to cope within the short-term; first to the members, and the general residents, who are affected by disasters. Generally, adopted measures to reduce adverse impacts and build adaptation were unsustainable. This study is among few studies that demonstrate the contribution of the social action and social control theories to managing and adapting to climate change and its associated impacts in African cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104963"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages based on the improved FRAME","authors":"Danyan Liao ,&nbsp;Xiaolan Zhuo ,&nbsp;Jin Tao","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There are a large number of high-value heritage sites in the historic villages preserved in the mountainous areas of southern China. These sites are exposed to major fire risks due to their compact layout and wooden building materials. By improving the fire risk assessment method for engineering (FRAME), we proposed a dynamic fire risk assessment method for compact historic villages. On one hand, a balance between universality and pertinence was established regarding the assessment indexes and weighting system by integrating general factors with unique regional factors. On the other hand, a connecting link between prescriptive fire codes and performance-based design adjustments was established through the cyclic operation path of assessment-intervention-reassessment. Xiaozhai village, which has experienced serious fire incidents, was selected as an example. Its original fire risk, established fire interventions, actual fire results, and optimized fire protection plan were compared and analyzed to validate the effectiveness and reliability of the assessment method. This study reveals the correlation between various factors of the village and building fire risk. Among these factors, building proximity, traditional customs, and fire protection layout, which are not included in the original FRAME, have a significant impact on fire risk. The results of this study can serve as a reference for fire prevention in historic villages with similar characteristics worldwide. Additionally, the proposed methodology can provide insights into the development of fire risk assessment methods for various types of historical settlements, thus promoting the sustainable development of built heritage in these settlements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104935"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measurement of flood resilience of metro station based on combination weighting-cloud model","authors":"Rumeng Tian ,&nbsp;Ying Zhang ,&nbsp;Lei Peng ,&nbsp;Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Yingying Gu","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To further improve the flood safety level of metro stations, this research combined resilience theory and used combination weighting-cloud model method to evaluate metro station flood resilience. Firstly, the connotation of metro station flood resilience was defined. Physical-social-information trio spaces theory was combined with the resilience performance process of resistance, response, recovery and adaptation to determine influencing factors and develop evaluation index system. Secondly, combination weighting method was used to obtain index weight and quantitative model of metro station flood resilience measurement was developed by combining obstacle degree and cloud models. Finally, taking 8 metro stations in Zhengzhou as examples, an empirical research was performed to verify the scientificity and rationality of the proposed model. The results showed that: (1) The flood resilience levels of Zhengzhou metro stations were good as a whole and their response resilience, recovery resilience and adaptation resilience were relatively better than their resistance resilience, which complied with actual situations. (2) Peak hour passenger flow, emergency medical ability, public opinion guidance ability, flood engineering transformation, intelligent information platform construction and other indicators were found to be the key obstacle factors of the flood resilience of Zhengzhou metro stations, which needed to be paid attention to.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104950"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-defining a user-based desirable future for seismic alert systems with stakeholders: application to martinique, French west indies","authors":"Samuel Auclair,&nbsp;Aude Nachbaur,&nbsp;Pierre Gehl,&nbsp;Yoann Legendre,&nbsp;Benoît Vittecoq","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since we cannot predict earthquakes, it is critical to better anticipate them and thus to save time in enabling timely implementation of appropriate protection measures. To this end, several types of tools based on real-time monitoring have been proposed over the past ten years, namely: Operational Earthquake (or Aftershock) Forecasting, (ii) Earthquake Early Warning and (iii) Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems. This paper assesses the opportunity to transfer these three socio-technical systems into operational tools for the territory of Martinique (French West Indies), and more generally for the Lesser Antilles regions.</div><div>The research design relies on an user-centered approach based on an in-depth three-steps consultation of stakeholders in the territory of Martinique, by implementing (i) an online survey, (ii) a targeted interview with key actors and finally (iii) a workshop bringing together all stakeholders. This sequential consultation approach enables to start from individual considerations and to progressively refine the diagnosis of the applicability of earthquake alerting tools, first for each type of entity, then for the territory as a whole. Coupled with an analysis of international experience in seismic alerting and the regional context of seismic risk governance, this leads to the elaboration of perspectives at three scales: (i) the local scale of Martinique, (ii) the regional scale of the French West Indies on one hand, and of Lesser Antilles on the other, and (iii) the international scale. In particular, the findings of this study emphasize the need for an “informational continuum” of decision support for practitioners before, during and after the occurrence of earthquakes and their aftershocks. This leads to a reconsideration of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response to Earthquakes systems as intrinsically complementary, while not having the same level of operational applicability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104932"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An integrated strategy for evaluating flood susceptibility combining deep neural networks with biologically inspired meta-heuristic algorithms","authors":"Jingkai Hao ,&nbsp;Hongyan Li ,&nbsp;Chong Zhang ,&nbsp;Feng Zhang ,&nbsp;Dawei Liu ,&nbsp;Libo Mao","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Predicting the likelihood of future flooding remains a challenging problem due to diverse hydrological conditions and heightened flood vulnerability. Previous flood susceptibility mapping efforts have often been constrained by limited predictive capabilities and a lack of integration with advanced computational methods. This study developed a flood susceptibility map (FSM) for Xinxiang City, Henan Province, China, improving predictive accuracy by incorporating a long short-term memory network (LSTM) with three biologically inspired meta-heuristic algorithms: the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA), the Northern Goshawk Algorithm (NGO), and Snake Optimization (SO). A flood list map containing 300 flood locations was established through the construction of a spatial flood database incorporating 12 explanatory factors for flooding. The relationship between these factors and flood occurrences was examined using the variance inflation factor (VIF), random forest (RF), and frequency ratio (FR) methods. The effectiveness and predictive capabilities of these models were compared and validated using statistical techniques, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The optimized WOA-LSTM and SO-LSTM models outperformed others, achieving a kappa coefficient of 0.966 and an AUC value close to 1, indicating superior prediction accuracy and stability. The model effectively categorized risk regions into six levels, facilitating flood risk management in geologically similar areas. This research contributes to the field by demonstrating the effectiveness of combining LSTM with meta-heuristic algorithms for enhanced flood susceptibility prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 105003"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142723214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"\"Impact of 2022 flood on girls' education: A case study of District Nowshera, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan”","authors":"Shehla Gul,&nbsp;Iqra Khalil,&nbsp;Komal Hidayat","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural hazards, such as floods, significantly impact education systems. They can disrupt schooling, destroy infrastructure, and displace students and teachers. This study aimed to analyze how the severe floods of 2022 impacted girls’ education in District Nowshera of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan. A mixed-methods approach was used for this study including a questionnaire survey to collect quantitative and qualitative data with the help of a questionnaire survey, two focus group discussions, seven semi-structured and in-depth interviews, and personal observations. The results revealed that two girls' schools were destroyed.</div><div>In contrast, most of the schools in the selected villages were partially damaged, including damage to parts of the school building, classrooms, furniture, washrooms, or other facilities. Floods also disrupted academic activities due to school closures varying from 5 days to 2 months. The majority of female students encountered challenges such as inadequate uniforms, bags, and stationery, as well as insufficient access to clean drinking water and proper washrooms in schools. Most of the girls also reported mental health issues after the floods such as anxiety, depression, and fear and there were dropouts of girls in some areas as well. As of 2024, the reconstruction of most of the destroyed parts of schools was still not complete. In most areas, the local people worked on a self-help basis to restore educational activities, while the government and NGOs also helped in the recovery process. Teachers motivated the students to return to school after the flood and provided them with their basic needs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104988"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flooding in Sebeya catchment, Rwanda - A review of causes, impacts, and management","authors":"Joseph Hahirwabasenga ,&nbsp;Erik Nilsson ,&nbsp;Magnus Larson ,&nbsp;Hussein Bizimana ,&nbsp;Umaru Garba Wali ,&nbsp;Magnus Persson","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.105012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flooding is one of the natural hazards that pose the most serious threat to human societies in Rwanda, particularly in the Sebeya catchment located in the northwestern part of the country. The main aims of this study are to identify the current flooding issues in the Sebeya catchment in Rwanda and to propose recommendations for improved flood risk management (FRM). The methodology employed encompasses extensive reviews and subsequent analysis of (1) the causes and effects of recent floods, (2) the current flood management framework, (3) previous relevant research, (4) data availability, and (5) opportunities for improvement of the management strategy. A wide range of information was collected from published papers, reports, government publications, and policies. Field observations were also conducted to assess the geographical and hydrological characteristics of the Sebeya catchment. The results show that there is limited knowledge on the impacts of floods in the catchment and that both the availability and quality of data are challenging in carrying out FRM. Therefore, more research on the major drivers and impacts of floods in the Sebeya catchment is required. It is also recommended to increase the number of rainfall and stream gauging stations to facilitate further studies on the hydrological characteristics of the floods and to provide data for modeling efforts. Apart from the Sebeya catchment and Rwanda in general, the methods and results in this study are particularly relevant for FRM in nearby countries facing similar flood conditions, such as Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 105012"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142743229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling hurricane evacuation/return under compound risks—Evidence from Hurricane Ida","authors":"Zengxiang Lei ,&nbsp;Rajat Verma ,&nbsp;Laura Siebeneck ,&nbsp;Satish V. Ukkusuri","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104977","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104977","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disasters faced by human society are becoming more frequent and complex, raising a need to model the combinations of different types of disasters, such as hurricanes and pandemics. In this paper, we explore various modeling options for predicting aggregated individual evacuation metrics under the compound risks drawn by COVID-19 and Hurricane Ida (2021) using large-scale location-based services data. For each model, we compare its performance with other options and analyze the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to understand the impact of different explanatory variables on the model outcome. The results suggest that the COVID-19 factors marginally enhance the modeling of evacuation rates and distance, holding similar importance to traditionally recognized factors such as the percentage of senior people and vehicle ownership. Further analysis also suggests the impact of COVID-19 factors diminishes with distance from the coast. Moreover, we observed that the contributions of COVID-19 factors increase significantly when their values reach extreme levels, both very low and very high, suggesting that evacuation patterns were notably impacted under these conditions. Our findings contribute to understanding the impacts of various factors on evacuation patterns during Hurricane Ida, inform model selection for predicting critical evacuation/return metrics, and enrich the knowledge base of evacuation modeling in scenarios involving compound risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104977"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142705126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Normative learning generates behaviour change: The case of drowning prevention","authors":"Brian R. Cook ,&nbsp;Peter Kamstra ,&nbsp;Nicholas Harrigan ,&nbsp;Jasmin Lawes ,&nbsp;Robert Brander ,&nbsp;James Bond ,&nbsp;Tom Kompas","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drowning is a risk governance issue of global significance. The majority of coastal drownings occur at unpatrolled beaches. Interventions designed to influence public behaviours are measured in terms of ‘awareness raised’ and ‘intentions to act’ rather than actual ‘behaviours adopted’. As a result, up-scaling impacts defaults to the dubious assumption that the communication of information can raise societal-scale awareness that will result in societal-scale behaviour change. No interventions into coastal drowning prevention, though, have determined the impacts of raised awareness on actual behaviours and, as a result, interventions are presently blind to whether changed behaviours ‘spillover’ to unpatrolled locations; further, no research has applied mixed methods to explain the mechanisms of behaviour changes or spillover effects. We conducted an intervention that combines a 20-min safety lesson with a meaningful engagement involving active reflection. This intervention was paired with a control that involved the engagement only. The study was conducted at Lorne, Australia, and involved 12 lessons with approximately 600 participants; 4–6 months later, participants were contacted to measure impact. After screening for those who had returned to a beach and had had opportunity to alter their behaviours, statistical modelling shows that, relative to the control, the intervention significantly increased the number of risk mitigation behaviours adopted, the number of non-participants told, and the number of behaviour changes adopted at unpatrolled beaches. The major impact pathway of the intervention was normative learning rather than awareness raising. Qualitative analysis explains how the intervention supported normative learning (i.e., through reflection) and the mechanisms through which normative learning supported behaviour change (i.e., self-efficacy and altered worldview). We demonstrate a participatory methodology and innovative mixed-methods approach that results in actual behaviour changes that spillover to non-participants and to the locations where drownings concentrate. More broadly, the implications challenge awareness raising as the basis of risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104942"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142661560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial and temporal analysis of vulnerability disparity of minorities to wildfires in California","authors":"Weiwei Xie,&nbsp;Qingmin Meng","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104949","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfires typically have devastating impacts on communities, both in urban and rural areas, resulting in property loss, psychological distress, physical injuries, and loss of life. A notable gap in the literature is the spatial and temporal disproportionate impact of wildfires on underrepresented communities. This lack of attention is concerning, as these underrepresented populations are likely to be more vulnerable to the devastating consequences of wildfire disasters, exacerbating pre-existing social, economic, and environmental disparities. This study aims to address this gap by conducting a comprehensive spatial and temporal analysis of the vulnerability of underrepresented communities such as the Black, Asian, Hispanic, Native American, among others, in the State of California. We deploy methodological tools such as Getis-Ord Gi∗ to identify areas exhibiting heightened vulnerability across diverse minority groups. Additionally, disparity degrees are measured using Location Amplitude Index among these minority populations. Our findings reveal significant spatial and temporal shifts in vulnerability disparities for Native American communities in Los Angeles County, the Black communities in Orange County, and all minority groups in San Diego County. Shedding light on the underrepresented communities' vulnerabilities to wildfires, this research contributes to the development of targeted and equitable strategies for wildfire preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. Furthermore, this study highlights the urgent need for addressing the environmental justice implications of wildfire disasters and considering minorities’ disparity in wildfire risk management and climate change adaptation planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"114 ","pages":"Article 104949"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}