International journal of disaster risk reduction最新文献

{"title":"Operational status effect on the seismic risk assessment of oil refineries","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The operational status of an oil refinery (type and scale of operations that take place at any time instance) largely determines the amount of fuel produced, circulated within the facility, and stored in tanks. This status is affected by seasonality, periods of peak or low demand, as well as periods of routine maintenance. However, it is an aspect that is typically neglected even though it stands out among the factors that determine the seismic performance of several critical industrial assets, such as the storage tanks, as well as the consequences of any potential failure. An open-source refinery testbed is employed herein to demonstrate the effect of the refinery's operational status on the seismic risk estimates. Alternative realistic operational scenarios are developed following typical industry practices and are arranged over a time period between two refinery major maintenance shutdown events. The most probable damage state is selected for each asset to identify the most vulnerable ones. Based on the type and importance of the impacted assets, the potential consequences are determined at the facility level. Resulting estimates are very different if an earthquake strikes during a regular/high/low-demand period, or a maintenance period. The framework can be utilized to identify the locations within the refinery that may trigger cascading failures and secondary damages, should their assets be damaged by a seismic event. The outcomes can be exploited by stakeholders, risk engineers, and emergency action planners for developing customized and businesslike procedures to enhance the seismic resilience of the facility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Buyouts in the Carolinas: Pre & Post buyout perspectives of public officials and community leaders","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound floods in rural, low-income communities are rising across the United States as storms intensify and weather patterns change. In communities experiencing repeated back-to-back flooding, the events impact residents who have lived in those areas for many generations. Voluntary buyouts of properties at risk of repeat flooding are increasingly being offered as a long-term mitigation solution. This study looks at the consequences of buyout programs in two low-income, underserved, and predominantly Black communities, Bennettsville, South Carolina and Tarboro, North Carolina, that have experienced compound floods (e.g. rain and riverine flooding). Results from in-depth interviews conducted with public officials and community leaders in Bennettsville and Tarboro reveal buyout governance characterized by state-led implementation. While buyout programs have historically been implemented by local governments, the intention to achieve greater implementation efficiency underlies recent state-led efforts. Nevertheless, state-led implementation in South and North Carolina has not resolved long-standing issues within the buyout program that center around program design and communications. Further, while the state-led implementation of buyouts is expected to ease financial pressures on local governments, it can also create unintended consequences for local communities including extended delays, lack of trust in the government, and more confusion over the buyout process. The study recommends the use of a more localized approach and providing program implementation assistance to local governments through established protocols, and creating communication and trust with buyout communities through direct accessible flow of information using multiple modes and a trusted local point of contact.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in residential areas","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104902","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurately and reasonably assessing earthquake casualties is crucial for seismic disaster planning and governmental decision-making. However, current research on earthquake casualty assessments often lacks sufficient consideration of the uncertainties related to seismic scenarios and influencing factors. To enhance the authenticity and reliability of casualty assessments, this study proposes a seismic casualty assessment model capable of simultaneously considering multiple influencing factors. It quantitatively evaluates each influencing factor and comprehensively integrates the uncertainty characteristics associated with seismic occurrence time, building damage states, and the number of occupants. Using a residential area as an example, the research compares casualty assessment results with and without considering apartment layouts and the age structure of residents. It also explains the probabilistic method for quantifying casualties and constructing vulnerability models for seismic events in the residential area. Additionally, a simplified analytical method applicable to probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in masonry residential areas in Beijing is proposed. The research findings indicate that the apartment layouts within buildings have a relatively minor impact on the assessment results of casualties in the residential area, while the age structure of residents significantly affects earthquake casualty estimates. Casualty rates in the residential area, considering uncertainties in the three factors, approximately follow a log-normal distribution. For seismic intensities ranging from VI(0.05g) to IX(0.40g), the standard deviation of casualty rates across different seismic intensities exceeds 0.4. The probabilistic analysis method proposed in this study enhances existing models for earthquake casualty assessments and addresses the shortcomings in probabilistic evaluation research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Judgment and decision strategies used by weather scientists in southeast Asia to classify impact severity","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Impact-based weather forecasting requires forecasters to predict what weather might <em>do</em> (impact information), rather than solely what weather might <em>be</em> (meteorological information). In a collaboration between the UK Met Office, UK psychologists, and weather scientists in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, the present study employed Judgment Analysis and decision strategy comparisons to better understand weather scientists' impact severity judgments. In the Judgment Analysis Task, weather scientists (from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) made numerical and categorical severity judgments for 70 hypothetical heavy rainfall events, each described via six impacts (e.g., number of deaths, number of people affected). The hypothetical impacts were generated from a multivariate distribution estimated from a distribution of real rainfall events. Subsequently, participants provided categorical severity classifications for a list of impact values for each type of impact (Threshold Identification Task) to aid the identification of decision strategies. In all four countries, weather scientists' severity judgments were best predicted by incorporating all six impacts via a compensatory judgment strategy. However, considerable individual differences were identified in the weights assigned to the different impacts and in the identified thresholds for each impact's categorical severity classification. To improve impact-based forecasting, meteorological agencies should seek to enhance consistency among forecasters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142445880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation: Factors, roles and behaviors","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104893","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104893","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a critical city facility of our society, it is important for hospitals to be resilient against emergencies for a health imperative and economic buoyancy. Understanding the evacuation behaviors of hospital roles and the corresponding influencing factors is essential for the accurate execution of emergency response plans and well-being. Therefore, this study aims to explore the dynamics of social roles in hospital evacuation by understanding the mediation effects of role evolution factors (i.e., responsibility, competence, and expectation of evacuation roles). Questionnaires on hospital roles, role evolution factors, and evacuation behaviors were designed and distributed, with a total of 324 responses from various hospital occupants. The common method variance analysis, internal consistency test, item analysis, and exploratory factor analysis consistently indicated good reliability and validity of the questionnaire. Chain mediation models of three prominent evacuation roles, namely leader, emergency responder, and follower were developed, with the three role evolution factors as mediating variables, evacuation behavior as the dependent variable, and hospital role as the independent variable. Findings indicated significant path effects of hospital roles and role evolutionary factors on leadership, emergency responding, and following behaviors. One-way ANOVA on egocentric behavior and hesitant behavior of hospital roles revealed that patients have a higher propensity for negative behaviors compared with hospital staff. In light of the findings, the subtle relationship between hospital roles, role evolution factors, and evacuation behaviors was revealed. Role-specific leadership training, role-based emergency response management, role-related following behavior guidance, and negative behavior reduction measures were proposed for improving hospital safety.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing a healthcare transformational leadership competency framework for disaster resilience and risk management","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104898","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104898","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change-induced hazards increasingly threaten healthcare systems worldwide, amplifying the frequency and severity of disasters and their adverse health effects. This necessitates fortified healthcare leadership and resilient systems capable of delivering quality care amidst escalating environmental challenges and emphasises the need for standardised competency frameworks to enhance disaster readiness and response. As healthcare organisations face evolving challenges, cultivating transformational leadership competencies becomes essential for building adaptive, resilient, and effective disaster management strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Purpose</h3><div>of this study: This conceptual paper addresses the research question: \"How can healthcare leaders' competencies be developed to support healthcare disaster resilience?\".</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The study, conducted in 2023, used a narrative literature review, comparative analysis, and synthesis. It reviewed frameworks on transformational leadership and disaster resilience, employing comparative analysis to examine relationships and leadership competencies. A synthesized framework was developed to clarify dimensions and relationships.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Eight ‘domains’ of competencies were identified, in addition to other ‘transferring skills.’ The domains were analysed regarding their component competencies and were broadly classified into knowledge, cognitive and interpersonal skills, and attitudes. This classification is proposed as a ‘Healthcare Transformational Leadership Competency Framework’ (HTLCF) for disaster resilience and risk management.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><div>The HTLCF supports leaders in navigating complexities, anticipating risks, and facilitating collaboration, communication, and accountability, leveraging their transformative agency. This study suggests the use of the Healthcare Transformational Leadership Competency Framework to develop a standardised disaster management curriculum and continuous, ongoing training. This would equip leaders to enhance resilience and ensure coordinated, effective disaster responses for healthcare systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A systemic approach for assessing infrastructure component importance in hazard-prone communities","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104880","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104880","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investing in pre-event disaster mitigation interventions for physical infrastructure, such as structural retrofits and enhancements, can be costly due to limited resources. To prioritize investments, infrastructure components are ranked by their criticality within the overall system. To be effective in real-world deployment, this approach must account for the complex interactions between components, as failures can occur simultaneously across large geographical areas due to the hazard footprint. As a result, hazard-specific uncertainties and spatial correlations may lead to distinctive failure patterns. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven framework leveraging Monte Carlo simulation, that harnesses the individual realizations to capture and model realistic component damage patterns under a specified hazard scenario. This framework addresses a gap in literature by moving beyond traditional methods that often treat component failures as independent events. By capturing the interdependence between bridges, primarily through failure interactions, and system-wide effects, our method provides a more comprehensive criticality assessment. The simulation data provides a foundation for the framework, which applies to a wide variety of infrastructure networks and performance metrics. To demonstrate the method's effectiveness, a simplified transportation network from Shelby County, TN subjected to an earthquake event is analyzed. The proposed framework provides an effective approach for component ranking, suitable for decision-making where human intuition and simple methods are insufficient. Its broad applicability suggests a potential for large-scale and interdependent network problems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of educational and training programs on disaster awareness and preparedness among health sciences students: A quasi-experimental study","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104888","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104888","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster preparedness among health sciences students is critical but often insufficient. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a disaster awareness and impact reduction educational intervention in enhancing disaster preparedness. A quasi-experimental single-group pretest-posttest design was employed, with the intervention consisting of 16 h of education delivered over four weeks via a distance learning platform. The study involved 599 students from the faculties of health sciences, who were assessed at baseline and three months post-intervention. Results indicated that students’ baseline disaster preparedness levels were low, with no significant correlations found between demographic characteristics, previous disaster experiences, or prior disaster preparedness training and baseline preparedness levels. Repeated-measures Analysis of Variance confirmed a significant impact of the intervention after controlling for baseline preparedness levels. Significant improvements were observed post-intervention across all preparedness dimensions: disaster physical protection, disaster planning, disaster assistance, disaster warning systems, and total preparedness levels (p &lt; .001). The most substantial gains were noted among students with initially low preparedness levels. These findings emphasize the importance of integrating disaster preparedness education into health sciences curricula to better equip future healthcare professionals for effective disaster response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integration of disaster risk reductionand climate change adaptation in Aceh: Progress and challenges after 20 Years of Indian Ocean Tsunamis","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) of 2004, which tragically claimed 168,000 lives and displaced about half a million people in the Aceh region of Indonesia, established Aceh's reputation as one of the most geologically volatile areas in Southeast Asia. Unfortunately, the 2004 IOT also altered some geomorphological changes, particularly land subsidence in the coastal areas of South, Southwest, and West Aceh, making these regions more susceptible to coastal floods and inundation over the last 20 years. The 2004 tsunamigenic earthquakes had been compounded by hydroclimatic hazards (and required to reduce risk beyond geological disasters) that continued to cause loss and damage, compromise communities' well-being, and reproduce vulnerabilities. This article examines the progress and challenges for integrating disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) in Aceh, with a focus on the capital city, Banda Aceh using in-depth stakeholder interviews and document reviews. Anticipating gaps in meeting Sendai Framework 2030 target, as also observed elsewhere in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, the findings suggest various key challenges for the integration, including (1) fragmented DRR and CCA policies leading shaped the gap in coordination and collaboration among actors; (2) nurturing political commitment remains a challenge at local level; (3) lack of fiscal capacity and lack of earmarked allocation hampers the potential integration; (4) and deficits in community participation delayed adaptation and integration. The study offers recommendations for policy insights and consideration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142433493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disaster debris management and the Maine floods of December 2023","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104911","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104911","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A major disaster declaration was granted to designated areas in Maine for a severe flood that occurred in December of 2023. The purpose of this research is to examine the disaster debris management in the preparedness, response, and recovery phases of the flood. A purposive sample of emergency management personnel who worked with the debris management participated in structured interviews. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded with NVivo software. Through the two-step process of open and focused coding, four themes were identified. These include debris management planning, resource constraints, home rule, and concerns over more extreme weather events. In several instances, resource constraints inhibited debris management planning opportunities. This research recommends that partnerships be developed between state and local emergency management agencies and academics to assist with grant writing to address resource constraints. Furthermore, coalitions of stakeholders with diverse backgrounds in debris management should be formed to develop guidelines to tailor debris management plans to a given area's needs. The growth in extreme weather events emphasizes the urgency in developing such debris management planning projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142539146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}