基于海平面上升、潮汐水位和土地利用变化动态相互作用的陆上概率海啸灾害评估:2004年亚齐海啸发生20年后,班达亚齐的案例研究

IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Tursina , Syamsidik , Shigeru Kato , Mochammad Afifuddin , Muhammad Daffa Al Farizi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

基于海平面上升的影响及其与潮汐和土地利用/覆盖变化的相互作用,提出了一种概率海啸灾害评估方法。选择班达亚齐市(印度尼西亚)作为本研究的地点是因为它容易受到海啸灾害和沿海灾害的影响,包括海平面上升(SLR)。模拟了90种海啸情景,包括Mw 8.2、8.4、8.6、8.8、9.0和9.2 6级地震,5个阶段的潮位,50年和100年的单反。作为脆弱性的一个方面,土地利用/覆盖变化(LULC)在未来50年和100年进行了预估。在海啸高度和危险曲线分析方面,几个观测点代表了班达亚齐土地利用/土地覆盖的多样性。根据研究结果,无SLR的PTHA与有SLR影响的PTHA之间存在显著差异。与退潮相比,海啸在涨潮时传播时也观察到这种显著差异。海平面上升和涨潮之间的相互作用对班达亚齐的海啸高度、土地利用和土地覆盖产生重大影响。海啸与潮汐和海平面上升的相互作用缩短了海啸概率的重现期。这些结果表明,海啸波与潮汐、海平面上升和土地利用/土地覆盖之间的动态相互作用在海啸灾害评估中不可忽视,以获得更精确的估计。本研究提出的方法可以应用于具有类似条件的其他地区。由于气候变化,未来沿海灾害可能会增加,这可能对海啸灾害产生更大的影响,这意味着需要沿海地区综合管理来减少海啸风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Onshore probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments through compounding the dynamic interactions of sea level rise, tidal levels, and land use changes: A case study of Banda Aceh, 20 Years after the 2004 Aceh Tsunami
This paper presents a probabilistic tsunami hazard assesment (PTHA), due to the influence of sea level rise and its interaction with tides and land use/cover change. The city of Banda Aceh (Indonesia) was chosen as the location of this research study because it is vulnerable to tsunami hazards and coastal hazards, including sea level rise (SLR). The 90 tsunami scenarios were simulated, consisting of 6 earthquake magnitudes of Mw 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, 8.8, 9.0, and 9.2, five phases of tidal levels, and SLRs of 50 and 100 years. As an aspect of vulnerability, land use/cover changes (LULC) are projected for the next 50 and 100 years. Several observation points represent the variety of land use/land cover in Banda Aceh, in terms of tsunami height and analysis of hazard curves. According to the findings of the study, there is a significant difference between PTHA without SLR, and PTHA with SLR influence. This significant difference is also observed when the tsunami propagates at high tide, compared to low tide. The interaction between sea level rise and high tides provides a significant impact on tsunami height and land use and land cover in Banda Aceh. Tsunami interaction with tides and sea level rise shortens the return period of tsunami probability. These results show that the dynamic interaction of tsunami waves between tides, sea level rise, and land use/land cover cannot be ignored in assessing the tsunami hazard, in order to gain more precise estimations. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to another region with a similar condition. With the potentially increasing coastal hazards in the future, due to climate change, that can have a greater impact on the tsunami disaster, this implies the need for Integrated Coastal Zone Management for tsunami risk reduction.
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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