Onshore probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments through compounding the dynamic interactions of sea level rise, tidal levels, and land use changes: A case study of Banda Aceh, 20 Years after the 2004 Aceh Tsunami
Tursina , Syamsidik , Shigeru Kato , Mochammad Afifuddin , Muhammad Daffa Al Farizi
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper presents a probabilistic tsunami hazard assesment (PTHA), due to the influence of sea level rise and its interaction with tides and land use/cover change. The city of Banda Aceh (Indonesia) was chosen as the location of this research study because it is vulnerable to tsunami hazards and coastal hazards, including sea level rise (SLR). The 90 tsunami scenarios were simulated, consisting of 6 earthquake magnitudes of Mw 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, 8.8, 9.0, and 9.2, five phases of tidal levels, and SLRs of 50 and 100 years. As an aspect of vulnerability, land use/cover changes (LULC) are projected for the next 50 and 100 years. Several observation points represent the variety of land use/land cover in Banda Aceh, in terms of tsunami height and analysis of hazard curves. According to the findings of the study, there is a significant difference between PTHA without SLR, and PTHA with SLR influence. This significant difference is also observed when the tsunami propagates at high tide, compared to low tide. The interaction between sea level rise and high tides provides a significant impact on tsunami height and land use and land cover in Banda Aceh. Tsunami interaction with tides and sea level rise shortens the return period of tsunami probability. These results show that the dynamic interaction of tsunami waves between tides, sea level rise, and land use/land cover cannot be ignored in assessing the tsunami hazard, in order to gain more precise estimations. The methodology proposed in this study can be applied to another region with a similar condition. With the potentially increasing coastal hazards in the future, due to climate change, that can have a greater impact on the tsunami disaster, this implies the need for Integrated Coastal Zone Management for tsunami risk reduction.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international.
Key topics:-
-multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters
-the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques
-discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels
-disasters associated with climate change
-vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends
-emerging risks
-resilience against disasters.
The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.