Fan Li , Matteo Rubinato , Kai Wu , Lin Wang , Songdong Shao
{"title":"揭示多种流行病对小型和微型企业的非线性影响:对业务挑战的纵向研究","authors":"Fan Li , Matteo Rubinato , Kai Wu , Lin Wang , Songdong Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105737","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the dynamic impacts of multiple Covid-19 pandemic waves on operational challenges is crucial for mall and micro enterprises (SMEs) to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability. This study employs a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model to analyze operational challenges faced by SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, based on time-series data collected from 592 SMEs in Dongguan, China, between June 2021 to December 2022. The findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic growth has nonlinear impacts on customer loss, business interruptions, and supply chain issues, while its influence on cost increases is linear. These effects vary by lag periods and risk regimes. Customer loss and supply chain challenges show greater fluctuations in high-risk regimes but moderate responses in low-risk regimes. Conversely, business interruptions exhibit milder fluctuations in high-risk regimes and pronounced shifts in low-risk ones. This study offers a scientific basis for SMEs owners and policymakers to design adaptive, stage-specific measures. Insights from these findings can strengthen SMEs’ crisis management strategies, contributing to the stability and sustainable development of the economy and society.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105737"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Unraveling the non-linear impact of multiple pandemics on small and micro enterprises: a longitudinal study of operational challenges\",\"authors\":\"Fan Li , Matteo Rubinato , Kai Wu , Lin Wang , Songdong Shao\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105737\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Understanding the dynamic impacts of multiple Covid-19 pandemic waves on operational challenges is crucial for mall and micro enterprises (SMEs) to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability. This study employs a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model to analyze operational challenges faced by SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, based on time-series data collected from 592 SMEs in Dongguan, China, between June 2021 to December 2022. The findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic growth has nonlinear impacts on customer loss, business interruptions, and supply chain issues, while its influence on cost increases is linear. These effects vary by lag periods and risk regimes. Customer loss and supply chain challenges show greater fluctuations in high-risk regimes but moderate responses in low-risk regimes. Conversely, business interruptions exhibit milder fluctuations in high-risk regimes and pronounced shifts in low-risk ones. This study offers a scientific basis for SMEs owners and policymakers to design adaptive, stage-specific measures. Insights from these findings can strengthen SMEs’ crisis management strategies, contributing to the stability and sustainable development of the economy and society.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":13915,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International journal of disaster risk reduction\",\"volume\":\"128 \",\"pages\":\"Article 105737\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International journal of disaster risk reduction\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420925005618\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420925005618","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Unraveling the non-linear impact of multiple pandemics on small and micro enterprises: a longitudinal study of operational challenges
Understanding the dynamic impacts of multiple Covid-19 pandemic waves on operational challenges is crucial for mall and micro enterprises (SMEs) to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability. This study employs a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model to analyze operational challenges faced by SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, based on time-series data collected from 592 SMEs in Dongguan, China, between June 2021 to December 2022. The findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic growth has nonlinear impacts on customer loss, business interruptions, and supply chain issues, while its influence on cost increases is linear. These effects vary by lag periods and risk regimes. Customer loss and supply chain challenges show greater fluctuations in high-risk regimes but moderate responses in low-risk regimes. Conversely, business interruptions exhibit milder fluctuations in high-risk regimes and pronounced shifts in low-risk ones. This study offers a scientific basis for SMEs owners and policymakers to design adaptive, stage-specific measures. Insights from these findings can strengthen SMEs’ crisis management strategies, contributing to the stability and sustainable development of the economy and society.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international.
Key topics:-
-multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters
-the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques
-discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels
-disasters associated with climate change
-vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends
-emerging risks
-resilience against disasters.
The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.