{"title":"Cascading impacts of individual failures across critical infrastructures: The case of upper dam breach in pumped-storage hydropower schemes","authors":"Panagiotis Dimas , Archontia Lykou , Akis Zarkadoulas , Georgia-Konstantina Sakki , Andreas Efstratiadis , Christos Makropoulos , Argyro Louloudi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105736","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The assessment of critical infrastructures vulnerable to cascade failure phenomena requires a holistic viewpoint accounting for the full cause-effect chain. A key case is the upper dam failure in pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) systems, which can severely impact downstream infrastructures. This study proposes a generalized framework to examine the potential consequences of this catastrophic event, which is then showcased to a planned pumped-storage system in the Aliakmon River basin, Greece. It integrates hydrodynamic simulations and semi-empirical approaches to assess dam failure mechanisms and flood wave propagation, impulse wave generation, flood routing through the lower reservoir, and resulting risks. Several scenarios are deployed through HEC-RAS and BASEbreach models, accounting for the influence of terrain on wave dynamics and flood propagation. Impulse waves generated by sudden water inflows are modeled using theoretical and semi-empirical methods, with key parameters such as wave amplitude, run-up, and attenuation evaluated under both 2D and 3D propagation conditions. The core scientific question is whether wave heights and run-up remain within safety thresholds, and how resilient PSH systems are under cascading failures. The framework supports enhanced risk assessment, resilient hydropower design, and sustainable water-energy infrastructure planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"128 ","pages":"Article 105736"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420925005606","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The assessment of critical infrastructures vulnerable to cascade failure phenomena requires a holistic viewpoint accounting for the full cause-effect chain. A key case is the upper dam failure in pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) systems, which can severely impact downstream infrastructures. This study proposes a generalized framework to examine the potential consequences of this catastrophic event, which is then showcased to a planned pumped-storage system in the Aliakmon River basin, Greece. It integrates hydrodynamic simulations and semi-empirical approaches to assess dam failure mechanisms and flood wave propagation, impulse wave generation, flood routing through the lower reservoir, and resulting risks. Several scenarios are deployed through HEC-RAS and BASEbreach models, accounting for the influence of terrain on wave dynamics and flood propagation. Impulse waves generated by sudden water inflows are modeled using theoretical and semi-empirical methods, with key parameters such as wave amplitude, run-up, and attenuation evaluated under both 2D and 3D propagation conditions. The core scientific question is whether wave heights and run-up remain within safety thresholds, and how resilient PSH systems are under cascading failures. The framework supports enhanced risk assessment, resilient hydropower design, and sustainable water-energy infrastructure planning.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international.
Key topics:-
-multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters
-the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques
-discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels
-disasters associated with climate change
-vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends
-emerging risks
-resilience against disasters.
The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.