Unraveling the non-linear impact of multiple pandemics on small and micro enterprises: a longitudinal study of operational challenges

IF 4.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Fan Li , Matteo Rubinato , Kai Wu , Lin Wang , Songdong Shao
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Abstract

Understanding the dynamic impacts of multiple Covid-19 pandemic waves on operational challenges is crucial for mall and micro enterprises (SMEs) to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability. This study employs a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model to analyze operational challenges faced by SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic, based on time-series data collected from 592 SMEs in Dongguan, China, between June 2021 to December 2022. The findings reveal that COVID-19 pandemic growth has nonlinear impacts on customer loss, business interruptions, and supply chain issues, while its influence on cost increases is linear. These effects vary by lag periods and risk regimes. Customer loss and supply chain challenges show greater fluctuations in high-risk regimes but moderate responses in low-risk regimes. Conversely, business interruptions exhibit milder fluctuations in high-risk regimes and pronounced shifts in low-risk ones. This study offers a scientific basis for SMEs owners and policymakers to design adaptive, stage-specific measures. Insights from these findings can strengthen SMEs’ crisis management strategies, contributing to the stability and sustainable development of the economy and society.
揭示多种流行病对小型和微型企业的非线性影响:对业务挑战的纵向研究
了解多波2019冠状病毒病大流行对运营挑战的动态影响,对于小型和微型企业(SMEs)增强抵御力和降低脆弱性至关重要。本研究采用阈值向量自回归(TVAR)模型,基于从中国东莞592家中小企业收集的2021年6月至2022年12月的时间序列数据,分析了中小企业在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间面临的运营挑战。研究结果表明,COVID-19大流行的增长对客户流失、业务中断和供应链问题具有非线性影响,而对成本增加的影响是线性的。这些影响因滞后期和风险制度而异。客户流失和供应链挑战在高风险制度中波动较大,而在低风险制度中反应温和。相反,业务中断在高风险制度中表现出较温和的波动,在低风险制度中表现出明显的变化。本研究为中小企业主和政策制定者设计适应性强的阶段性措施提供了科学依据。研究结果可以帮助中小企业加强危机管理策略,促进经济社会的稳定和可持续发展。
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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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