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How Large is the Sovereign Greenium?* 主权绿ium 有多大？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12619
Sakai Ando, Chenxu Fu, Francisco Roch, Ursula Wiriadinata
{"title":"How Large is the Sovereign Greenium?*","authors":"Sakai Ando,&nbsp;Chenxu Fu,&nbsp;Francisco Roch,&nbsp;Ursula Wiriadinata","doi":"10.1111/obes.12619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12619","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper assembles a comprehensive sovereign green bond database and estimates the sovereign <i>greenium</i>. The development of green bond markets has been one of the most important financial breakthroughs in the domain of sustainable finance during the last 15 years. A central pecuniary benefit for green bond issuers has been that these bonds exhibit a positive green premium (<i>greenium</i>), that is, a lower yield relative to a similar conventional bond. Yet, issuances at the sovereign level have been relatively recent and not well documented in the literature. We find that green bonds are issued at a relatively small premium (4 basis points on average) in Advanced Economies. Yet, importantly, the <i>greenium</i> is growing over time and is considerably larger (11 basis points on average) for Emerging Market Economies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1472-1483"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions 需求和供给驱动的经济衰退中的欧元区政府支出乘数
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12626
Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, Emanuel Gasteiger, Giovanni Melina
{"title":"The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions","authors":"Mario Di Serio,&nbsp;Matteo Fragetta,&nbsp;Emanuel Gasteiger,&nbsp;Giovanni Melina","doi":"10.1111/obes.12626","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12626","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ - $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1342-1372"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141272371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Kick for the GDP: The Effect of Winning the FIFA World Cup 为 GDP 踢一脚赢得国际足联世界杯的影响
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12627
Marco Mello
{"title":"A Kick for the GDP: The Effect of Winning the FIFA World Cup","authors":"Marco Mello","doi":"10.1111/obes.12627","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12627","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses OECD data to examine whether winning the men's FIFA World Cup boosts GDP growth, as claimed by analysts and media outlets concomitantly with every edition of this football competition. By implementing both an event-study design and a synthetic difference-in-difference strategy, the analysis shows that winning the World Cup increases year-over-year GDP growth by at least 0.48 percentage points in the two subsequent quarters. This result seems primarily driven by enhanced export growth, which is consistent with a greater appeal enjoyed by national products and services on the global market after victory in a major sporting event.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1313-1341"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12627","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141190501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demographics and Emissions: The Life Cycle of Consumption Carbon Intensity 人口与排放：消费碳强度的生命周期
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-25 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12617
Henrique S. Basso, Richard Jaimes, Omar Rachedi
{"title":"Demographics and Emissions: The Life Cycle of Consumption Carbon Intensity","authors":"Henrique S. Basso,&nbsp;Richard Jaimes,&nbsp;Omar Rachedi","doi":"10.1111/obes.12617","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12617","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The consumption carbon intensity – defined as the carbon emissions per unit of consumption – varies with age: it is hump-shaped over the life cycle, but becomes flatter at high levels of income. We document this novel fact using US household-level consumption data. This relationship holds not only at the individual level, but also at the aggregate: we leverage information across US states and countries all around the world to show that the carbon intensity of the economy depends on the population age structure. Consequently, policy changes that alter carbon prices affect relatively more middle-age individuals, and especially so in low-income economies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1409-1437"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141152958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter* 用新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线预测通货膨胀：频率问题*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12618
Manuel M. F. Martins, Fabio Verona
{"title":"Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter*","authors":"Manuel M. F. Martins,&nbsp;Fabio Verona","doi":"10.1111/obes.12618","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12618","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We forecast US inflation with a new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. Our method consists of decomposing the time series of inflation and its NKPC predictors into several frequency bands, forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation, and then summing up those forecasts to obtain the forecast for aggregate inflation. We find that (i) accurately forecasting the low frequency of inflation is, on average, crucial to successfully forecast inflation; (ii) our NKPC low-frequency forecast model consistently and significantly outperforms the time-series NKPC and standard benchmark models; (iii) the low frequencies of inflation expectations and unemployment are the key predictors; and (iv) optimally switching on / off the forecasts of each frequency components of inflation at each period allows to outstandingly track inflation and show that all frequencies of inflation matter.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"811-832"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141104480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID-19 Pandemic* 预测 COVID-19 大流行后经济衰退概率的新方法*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12616
Maximo Camacho, Salvador Ramallo, Manuel Ruiz
{"title":"A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID-19 Pandemic*","authors":"Maximo Camacho,&nbsp;Salvador Ramallo,&nbsp;Manuel Ruiz","doi":"10.1111/obes.12616","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12616","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Standard recession forecasting based on economic indicators has become unsettled due to COVID-19 pandemic's limited but influential data. This paper proposes a new non-parametric approach to computing predictive probabilities of future recessions that is robust to influential observations and other data irregularities. The method simulates forecasts using past data histories embedded into a symbolic space. Then, the forecasts are converted into probability statements, which are weighted by the forecast probabilities of their respective symbols. Using GDP data from G7, our proposal outperforms other parametric approaches in classifying future national business cycle phases, especially including data from 2020 in the sample.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"833-855"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12616","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140978733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Factor-Augmented New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the European Union Countries 欧盟国家的要素增强型新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12614
Milda Norkute, Joakim Westerlund
{"title":"A Factor-Augmented New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the European Union Countries","authors":"Milda Norkute,&nbsp;Joakim Westerlund","doi":"10.1111/obes.12614","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12614","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, a factor-augmented version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is assessed using a data set comprised of a large panel of European Union (EU) member countries. The factor-augmentation is natural given that country-level inflation rates are highly co-moving. The presence of unattended common factors is important because it raises the issue of omitted variables bias, as the real marginal cost, which is a regressor of the NKPC, is likely to load on the same factors as inflation. One possibility here is to employ the regular instrumental variables approach. However, if the external instruments load on the same factors as the error term of the NKPC, the instruments would be invalid and the results would therefore likely be misleading. Motivated by this last observation, the present paper proposes a new estimator of the NKPC that allows for very general forms of factor dependencies and endogeneity. Our results provide evidence in support of the NKPC, but only after the presence of common factors has been appropriately accounted for.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"794-810"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12614","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140926088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable 真是个谜！解读英国菲利普斯曲线不稳定的原因
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12615
Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
{"title":"What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable","authors":"Jennifer L. Castle,&nbsp;David F. Hendry","doi":"10.1111/obes.12615","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12615","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The UK relationship between nominal wage inflation and the unemployment rate is unstable. Over sub-periods of the last 160 years of turbulent data, Phillips curve slopes range from strongly negative, slightly negative, flat, slightly positive and strongly positive. Our constant-parameter congruent model of real wages explains these instabilities, yet also implies a constant negative relationship between nominal wage inflation and the unemployment rate when corrected by its regressors. Disentangling these effects reveals that structural breaks in the real-wage model's variables do not explain the instabilities, which instead occur during sub-periods when some of its explanatory variables are insignificant.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"743-760"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12615","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140926096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial Advice and Household Financial Portfolios* 财务咨询和家庭财务组合*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12613
Sarah Brown, Alessandro Bucciol, Alberto Montagnoli, Karl Taylor
{"title":"Financial Advice and Household Financial Portfolios*","authors":"Sarah Brown,&nbsp;Alessandro Bucciol,&nbsp;Alberto Montagnoli,&nbsp;Karl Taylor","doi":"10.1111/obes.12613","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12613","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We explore the demand for financial advice and the role of such advice in shaping household financial portfolios. Since taking financial advice may not be randomly allocated among households, understanding the drivers behind receiving financial advice is important before exploring the role of financial advice in shaping the composition of household portfolios. A number of specification tests are undertaken, including exploring the sensitivity of the results to selection as well matching estimation techniques. The analysis reveals that financial advice is inversely (positively) associated with the share of wealth held in real estate (bonds and stocks).</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 2","pages":"382-413"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12613","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140926097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inequality in an Equal Society 平等社会中的不平等
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12611
Laura A. Harvey, Jochen O. Mierau, James Rockey
{"title":"Inequality in an Equal Society","authors":"Laura A. Harvey,&nbsp;Jochen O. Mierau,&nbsp;James Rockey","doi":"10.1111/obes.12611","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12611","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A society in which everybody of a given age has the same income will exhibit substantial income and wealth inequality. We use this idea to empirically quantify <i>inter-cohort</i> inequality – the share of observed inequality attributable to life-cycle profiles of income and wealth – using data on male earnings and household wealth. We document that recent increases in income and wealth inequality in the USA and other developed countries are larger than observed rates would suggest due to favourable demographics. That is, while demographic change played a substantial role in the dynamics of income and wealth inequality until 1990, the stark increase in inequality in the USA and elsewhere ever since is despite not because of demographic change. Moreover, we show that there is important variation across countries in the level and trends in the extent of inequality that is due to lifecycle effects, and that taking this into account gives a more nuanced view of cross-country comparisons.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"871-904"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12611","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140926035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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