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A Factor-Augmented New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the European Union Countries 欧盟国家的要素增强型新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12614
Milda Norkute, Joakim Westerlund
{"title":"A Factor-Augmented New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the European Union Countries","authors":"Milda Norkute,&nbsp;Joakim Westerlund","doi":"10.1111/obes.12614","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12614","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, a factor-augmented version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is assessed using a data set comprised of a large panel of European Union (EU) member countries. The factor-augmentation is natural given that country-level inflation rates are highly co-moving. The presence of unattended common factors is important because it raises the issue of omitted variables bias, as the real marginal cost, which is a regressor of the NKPC, is likely to load on the same factors as inflation. One possibility here is to employ the regular instrumental variables approach. However, if the external instruments load on the same factors as the error term of the NKPC, the instruments would be invalid and the results would therefore likely be misleading. Motivated by this last observation, the present paper proposes a new estimator of the NKPC that allows for very general forms of factor dependencies and endogeneity. Our results provide evidence in support of the NKPC, but only after the presence of common factors has been appropriately accounted for.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"794-810"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12614","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140926088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial Advice and Household Financial Portfolios* 财务咨询和家庭财务组合*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12613
Sarah Brown, Alessandro Bucciol, Alberto Montagnoli, Karl Taylor
{"title":"Financial Advice and Household Financial Portfolios*","authors":"Sarah Brown, Alessandro Bucciol, Alberto Montagnoli, Karl Taylor","doi":"10.1111/obes.12613","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12613","url":null,"abstract":"We explore the demand for financial advice and the role of such advice in shaping household financial portfolios. Since taking financial advice may not be randomly allocated among households, understanding the drivers behind receiving financial advice is important before exploring the role of financial advice in shaping the composition of household portfolios. A number of specification tests are undertaken, including exploring the sensitivity of the results to selection as well matching estimation techniques. The analysis reveals that financial advice is inversely (positively) associated with the share of wealth held in real estate (bonds and stocks).","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"125 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140926097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable 真是个谜！解读英国菲利普斯曲线不稳定的原因
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12615
Jennifer L. Castle, David F. Hendry
{"title":"What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable","authors":"Jennifer L. Castle,&nbsp;David F. Hendry","doi":"10.1111/obes.12615","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12615","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The UK relationship between nominal wage inflation and the unemployment rate is unstable. Over sub-periods of the last 160 years of turbulent data, Phillips curve slopes range from strongly negative, slightly negative, flat, slightly positive and strongly positive. Our constant-parameter congruent model of real wages explains these instabilities, yet also implies a constant negative relationship between nominal wage inflation and the unemployment rate when corrected by its regressors. Disentangling these effects reveals that structural breaks in the real-wage model's variables do not explain the instabilities, which instead occur during sub-periods when some of its explanatory variables are insignificant.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"743-760"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12615","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140926096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inequality in an Equal Society 平等社会中的不平等
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12611
Laura A. Harvey, Jochen O. Mierau, James Rockey
{"title":"Inequality in an Equal Society","authors":"Laura A. Harvey,&nbsp;Jochen O. Mierau,&nbsp;James Rockey","doi":"10.1111/obes.12611","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12611","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A society in which everybody of a given age has the same income will exhibit substantial income and wealth inequality. We use this idea to empirically quantify <i>inter-cohort</i> inequality – the share of observed inequality attributable to life-cycle profiles of income and wealth – using data on male earnings and household wealth. We document that recent increases in income and wealth inequality in the USA and other developed countries are larger than observed rates would suggest due to favourable demographics. That is, while demographic change played a substantial role in the dynamics of income and wealth inequality until 1990, the stark increase in inequality in the USA and elsewhere ever since is despite not because of demographic change. Moreover, we show that there is important variation across countries in the level and trends in the extent of inequality that is due to lifecycle effects, and that taking this into account gives a more nuanced view of cross-country comparisons.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"871-904"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12611","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140926035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Averaging Estimation for Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression 工具变量量化回归的平均估算
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12612
Xin Liu
{"title":"Averaging Estimation for Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression","authors":"Xin Liu","doi":"10.1111/obes.12612","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12612","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes two averaging estimation methods to improve the finite-sample efficiency of the instrumental variables quantile regression (IVQR) estimator. I propose using the usual quantile regression for averaging to take advantage of cases when endogeneity is not too strong. I also propose using two-stage least squares to take advantage of cases when heterogeneity is not too strong. The first averaging method is to apply a recent proposal for GMM averaging to the IVQR model based on this proposed intuition. My implementation involves many computational considerations and builds on recent developments in the quantile literature. The second averaging method is a new bootstrap model averaging method that directly averages among IVQR, quantile regression, and two-stage least squares estimators. More specifically, I find the optimal weights from bootstrapped samples and then apply the bootstrap-optimal weights to the original sample. The bootstrap method is simpler to compute and generally performs better in simulations, but uniform dominance results have not been formally proved. Simulation results demonstrate that in the multiple-regressors/instruments case, both the GMM averaging and bootstrap estimators have uniformly smaller risk than the IVQR estimator across data-generating processes with a variety of combinations of different endogeneity levels and heterogeneity levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1290-1312"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12612","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140830487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Occupational Mobility of Routine Workers 常规工人的职业流动性
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12610
Terhi Maczulskij
{"title":"Occupational Mobility of Routine Workers","authors":"Terhi Maczulskij","doi":"10.1111/obes.12610","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12610","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper demonstrates that the decline in routine occupations and concurrent rise in abstract occupations are largely due to workers changing jobs. The reduction in routine manual tasks is further explained by workers transitioning to unemployment or retirement. In contrast, the increase in non-routine manual occupations is primarily driven by the entry of young or unemployed individuals into the workforce. Plant closure information is used to identify involuntary job separations. These findings indicate that routine cognitive workers can adjust to smaller employment disruptions compared to routine manual workers among women. However, a contrasting pattern is observed for men.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1198-1229"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12610","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140800845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Semi-parametric Panel Data Model with Common Factors and Spatial Dependence 具有共同因素和空间依赖性的半参数面板数据模型
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12609
Alexandra Soberon, Antonio Musolesi, Juan M. Rodriguez-Poo
{"title":"A Semi-parametric Panel Data Model with Common Factors and Spatial Dependence","authors":"Alexandra Soberon,&nbsp;Antonio Musolesi,&nbsp;Juan M. Rodriguez-Poo","doi":"10.1111/obes.12609","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12609","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the analysis of the Griliches' knowledge capital production function, previous works pointed out the relevance of incorporating slope heterogeneity in the technological parameters, cross-sectional dependence arising simultaneously from common factors and spillovers, and possible nonlinear effects of relevant common observed variables. In order to solve the above problems, in this article we introduce a semi-parametric model in a partially linear form that copes simultaneously with all the previous specification issues. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are obtained and the theoretical findings are further supported for small samples via several Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"905-927"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12609","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140560135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Self-employment Pay? The Role of Unemployment and Earnings Risk 自营职业是否赚钱？失业和收入风险的作用
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12608
Joaquín García-Cabo, Rocio Madera
{"title":"Does Self-employment Pay? The Role of Unemployment and Earnings Risk","authors":"Joaquín García-Cabo,&nbsp;Rocio Madera","doi":"10.1111/obes.12608","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12608","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper documents the role of unemployment and earnings risk in reconciling evidence in payoff differentials between self-employment and paid-employment. Using Spanish administrative data, we characterize the distribution and dynamics of earnings and document lower and less dispersed earnings in self-employment. We consider alternative hypotheses and highlight the role of lower unemployment risk in self-employment. We decompose earnings risk dynamics by estimating a life-cycle earnings process. Indeed, the self-employed experience lower returns but also face lower volatility and persistence of shocks throughout their life-cycle. Our results challenge the conventional view that self-employment necessarily entails higher risk and highlight that accounting for differences in labour earnings risk is important to reconcile the payoff differentials between self-employment and paid-employment.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1163-1197"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140560158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Balancing Study and Work: Heterogeneous Impact of the Bologna Reform on the Labour Market 兼顾学习与工作：博洛尼亚改革对劳动力市场的不同影响
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12607
Stanislav Avdeev
{"title":"Balancing Study and Work: Heterogeneous Impact of the Bologna Reform on the Labour Market","authors":"Stanislav Avdeev","doi":"10.1111/obes.12607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12607","url":null,"abstract":"The Bologna reform, the largest European education reform, was implemented in Russia in 2011. The reform shortened the duration of some undergraduate programmes by 1 year and compressed their curricula. Using a difference‐in‐differences design, I find that the reform had no short‐ or medium‐term adverse effects on employment. However, I find that null average effects on wages mask considerable heterogeneity. I find that female students with high relative returns worked less during their studies, invested in their human capital, and secured stable wages. In contrast, male students with low relative returns underinvested in human capital and experienced a decline in wages.","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140298734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty 英国脱欧：贸易政策不确定性导致的贸易转移
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12606
Eduardo Gutiérrez, Aitor Lacuesta, César Martín-Machuca
{"title":"Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty","authors":"Eduardo Gutiérrez,&nbsp;Aitor Lacuesta,&nbsp;César Martín-Machuca","doi":"10.1111/obes.12606","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12606","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper quantifies how much of the reduction in Spanish trade flows with the UK after the 2016 Brexit referendum was diverted to other markets. To obtain reliable estimates of trade diversion we regress firm-level changes in flows with all markets except the UK on changes in flows with the UK. In order to solve the positive correlation of trade flows between different markets we use the Brexit referendum as part of our instrumental variable. We then treat firms as units subjected to differential uncertainty shocks according to their initial patterns of sector and trade specialization. In particular, the referendum date is interacted with potential sectoral tariffs and pre-referendum firm-level exposure to the UK. The paper shows a close to full trade diversion for exports, mostly to other European countries, for those firms more exposed to that particular market (above 10%) and a heterogeneous response on the part of Spanish firms with low exposure (below 10%). Trade diversion for imports is weaker but the results are less robust. Given a particular share of exposure to the UK market, trade diversion appears to be more limited for big companies in comparison to small companies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1058-1088"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140149926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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