The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI:10.1111/obes.12634

Aleksei Kiselev, Daria Kolesnik, Mikhail Mamonov, Anna Pestova

引用次数: 0

Abstract

What role do credit supply shocks (CSS) play in macroeconomic dynamics in emerging economies? We exploit Russia's setting, including the 2014 Western sanctions, and show that a negative CSS normalized to 0.5 p.p. increase in the lending rate leads to a decrease of 2 p.p. in the output growth rate, 1.5 p.p. in the consumption growth rate and 5 p.p. in the investment growth rate within a quarter. The heterogeneity of the household and firm responses to CSS is driven by debt‐to‐income and leverage ratios, with indebted poorer households and larger firms being more sensitive to fluctuations in credit conditions.

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信贷供应冲击的实际影响：新兴经济体的证据

信贷供应冲击（CSS）在新兴经济体的宏观经济动态中扮演什么角色？我们利用俄罗斯的背景（包括 2014 年的西方制裁），研究表明，贷款利率正常化为 0.5 个百分点的负 CSS 会在一个季度内导致产出增长率下降 2 个百分点，消费增长率下降 1.5 个百分点，投资增长率下降 5 个百分点。家庭和企业对 CSS 的反应的异质性受债务收入比和杠杆比率的影响，负债较多的贫困家庭和规模较大的企业对信贷条件的波动更为敏感。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.