信贷供应冲击的实际影响：新兴经济体的证据

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI:10.1111/obes.12634

Aleksei Kiselev, Daria Kolesnik, Mikhail Mamonov, Anna Pestova

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引用次数: 0

摘要

信贷供应冲击（CSS）在新兴经济体的宏观经济动态中扮演什么角色？我们利用俄罗斯的背景（包括 2014 年的西方制裁），研究表明，贷款利率正常化为 0.5 个百分点的负 CSS 会在一个季度内导致产出增长率下降 2 个百分点，消费增长率下降 1.5 个百分点，投资增长率下降 5 个百分点。家庭和企业对 CSS 的反应的异质性受债务收入比和杠杆比率的影响，负债较多的贫困家庭和规模较大的企业对信贷条件的波动更为敏感。

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The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

What role do credit supply shocks (CSS) play in macroeconomic dynamics in emerging economies? We exploit Russia's setting, including the 2014 Western sanctions, and show that a negative CSS normalized to 0.5 p.p. increase in the lending rate leads to a decrease of 2 p.p. in the output growth rate, 1.5 p.p. in the consumption growth rate and 5 p.p. in the investment growth rate within a quarter. The heterogeneity of the household and firm responses to CSS is driven by debt‐to‐income and leverage ratios, with indebted poorer households and larger firms being more sensitive to fluctuations in credit conditions.

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来源期刊

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 管理科学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Whilst the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics publishes papers in all areas of applied economics, emphasis is placed on the practical importance, theoretical interest and policy-relevance of their substantive results, as well as on the methodology and technical competence of the research. Contributions on the topical issues of economic policy and the testing of currently controversial economic theories are encouraged, as well as more empirical research on both developed and developing countries.