Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics最新文献

{"title":"Judicial Reform and Banks Credit Risk Exposure*","authors":"Giulia Canzian,&nbsp;Antonella Rita Ferrara","doi":"10.1111/obes.12652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12652","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the Judicial System Reform, which was introduced in Italy in 2012, on the efficiency of the judicial system and the exposure of banks to credit risk in terms of Non-performing loans. To this end, we apply a difference-in-differences approach, using a dataset that covers annual judicial proceedings from 2010 to 2017, supplemented by bank balance sheet data. Our findings indicate that the reform had a detrimental effect on both judicial efficiency and the NPL ratio. The negative impact is especially pronounced in courts that were previously more efficient, suggesting that the court mergers may have resulted in diseconomies of scale.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 2","pages":"414-447"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12652","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Handling Distinct Correlated Effects with CCE","authors":"Ovidijus Stauskas,&nbsp;Ignace De Vos","doi":"10.1111/obes.12650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12650","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The common correlated effects (CCE) approach by Pesaran is a popular method for estimating panel data models with interactive effects. Due to its simplicity, i.e., unobserved common factors are approximated with cross-section averages of the observables, the estimator is highly flexible and lends itself to a wide range of applications. Despite such flexibility, however, the properties of CCE estimators are typically only examined under the restrictive assumption that all the observed variables load on the same set of factors, which ensures joint identification of the factor space. In this article, we take a different perspective, and explore the empirically relevant case where the dependent and explanatory variables are driven by distinct but correlated factors. Hence, we consider the case of <i>Distinct Correlated Effects</i>. Such settings can be argued to be relevant for practice, for instance in studies linking economic growth to climatic variables. In so doing, we consider panel dimensions such that <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>T</mi>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>N</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 <mo>→</mo>\u0000 <mi>τ</mi>\u0000 <mo>&lt;</mo>\u0000 <mi>∞</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ T{N}^{-1}to tau &lt;infty $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> as <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>(</mo>\u0000 <mi>N</mi>\u0000 <mo>,</mo>\u0000 <mi>T</mi>\u0000 <mo>)</mo>\u0000 <mo>→</mo>\u0000 <mi>∞</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ left(N,Tright)to infty $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, which is known to induce an asymptotic bias for the pooled CCE estimator even under the usual common factor assumption. We subsequently develop a robust bootstrap-based toolbox that enables asymptotically valid inference in both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels, without requiring knowledge about whether factors are distinct or common.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 2","pages":"448-475"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143536010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Common Consumption Pattern in China: Evidence and Mechanism*","authors":"Yucheng Sun,&nbsp;Xianbo Zhou","doi":"10.1111/obes.12648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12648","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using a representative sample of Chinese households, this article studies how a non-rich household's consumption is positively affected by the consumption and income of its rich reference group. Exploiting variations in the levels of the top quantiles of county–year consumption and income distributions, we document two central results. First, non-rich households consume more when exposed to a reference group with higher consumption and income. Second, the positive effect is the largest in the low tail of the household consumption distribution, which indicates that the common consumption effect can mitigate consumption inequality. Combining the above two findings, we refer to the impacts of a rich reference group on the consumption of non-rich households as the common consumption effect. We find some supporting evidence that status-signalling theory, not other classical theories, offers the most likely explanation. Relatively high-rank non-rich households are more motivated than low-rank non-rich households to signal status to their reference groups by allocating consumption toward more visible goods and services and drawing on loans. Our results hold under several robustness checks, such as controlling for confounders constant at the county level or household level, accounting for sample attrition and relaxing the exclusion restriction.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"26-63"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143110714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Long-run Effects of Austerity: An Analysis of Size Dependence and Persistence in Fiscal Multipliers","authors":"Guilherme Klein Martins","doi":"10.1111/obes.12646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12646","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper provides evidence that austerity shocks have long-run negative effects on GDP. Our baseline results show that contractionary fiscal shocks larger than 3% of GDP generate a negative effect of more than 5.5% on GDP even after 15 years. Evidence is also found linking austerity to smaller capital stock and total hours worked in the long-run. The results are robust to different fiscal shock datasets, the exclusion of particular shocks, and the use of cleaner controls. The paper also engages with the emerging discussion regarding fiscal multipliers heterogeneity, presenting evidence that the effects of exogenous fiscal measures are nonlinear on the shock size. The results also contribute to the broader discussion on the long-run effects of demand by suggesting that such shocks might permanently affect the economy.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 2","pages":"330-356"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12646","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143534005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Unintended Consequence of Stringent Immigration Enforcement on Staffing Levels in Nursing Homes: Evidence from Secure Communities","authors":"Christian Gunadi","doi":"10.1111/obes.12643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12643","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The provision of healthcare in the United States is increasingly reliant on immigrant workers. In this paper, I examine the impact of Secure Communities, a major immigration enforcement program designed to check the immigration status of all individuals arrested by local police, on staffing levels in nursing homes. Using a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the staggered activation of Secure Communities across US counties, I found that the program reduced directcare staff hours per resident day by 0.073, an approximately 2% decline relative to the mean of treatment counties in the baseline period. This finding suggests that stringent immigration enforcement may exacerbate the healthcare worker shortage in the United States.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 2","pages":"310-329"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143533390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Real Effects of Zombie Lending in Europe","authors":"Belinda Tracey","doi":"10.1111/obes.12636","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12636","url":null,"abstract":"<p>‘Zombie lending’ occurs when a lender supports an otherwise insolvent borrower. Recent studies document that zombie lending has been widespread following the European sovereign debt crisis. In this paper, I develop a quantitative model to study the impact of these lending practices on firm dynamics. In the model, firm liquidations and zombie lending arise endogenously. The model provides a good match to key euro-area firm statistics over the period 2011–14. I find that zombie lending has a substantial impact on borrowing costs, helping more low-productivity firms to survive. This, in turn, causes a drag on aggregate output, investment and productivity.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"122-154"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263965","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factoring in the Micro: A Transaction-Level Dynamic Factor Approach to the Decomposition of Export Volatility","authors":"Matteo Barigozzi,&nbsp;Angelo Cuzzola,&nbsp;Marco Grazzi,&nbsp;Daniele Moschella","doi":"10.1111/obes.12639","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12639","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper analyzes the export volatility sources estimating a dynamic factor model on transaction-level data. Utilizing an exhaustive dataset of French export transactions from 1993 to 2017, we reconstruct the latent factors space associated with global and destination-specific macroeconomic shocks through a Quasi-Maximum likelihood approach which allows accommodating both the high share of missing values and the high dimensionality of the microeconomic time series. The estimated parameters are then used to derive a volatility decomposition of the aggregate and firm-level export growth rates, highlighting structural spatial patterns and the role of geographical diversification in mitigating export risks.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"155-184"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12639","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142206142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Growth Effect of State Capacity Revisited","authors":"Trung V. Vu","doi":"10.1111/obes.12642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12642","url":null,"abstract":"I provide new empirical estimates of the effect of state capacity on economic development across countries over the period 1960–2022. Specifically, I construct a comprehensive state capacity index based on six different dimensions of effective state institutions available in the Varieties of Democracy (V‐Dem) dataset. Then, I estimate heterogeneous parameter models under a common factor framework. My empirical strategy explicitly allows the growth effect of state capacity to differ across countries and accounts for unobserved common factors. My preferred estimates indicate that a one‐standard‐deviation increase in my V‐Dem‐based state capacity index predicts a rise in income per person by roughly 6%–7%. The magnitude of such impact equates to less than half of that implied by conventional estimates obtained under highly restrictive assumptions of slope homogeneity and cross‐sectional independence. Furthermore, I provide partial evidence suggesting that worldwide heterogeneity in the economic importance of state capacity is deeply rooted in prehistorically determined population diversity, state history, long‐term relatedness between countries, and interpersonal trust.","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142206156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying","authors":"Andrew Mountford","doi":"10.1111/obes.12638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12638","url":null,"abstract":"The determinants of an economy's growth path for income per head may vary over time. In this paper, we apply unobserved components analysis to an otherwise standard panel model of economic growth dynamics so that an economy's long‐run relative income per head can change at any point of time. We apply this model to data for US states for 1929–2021 and the world economy for 1970–2019. In both datasets an economy's initial relative income per head is a good predictor of its long‐run relative income per head. Relatively poor economies on average remain relatively poor.","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142226416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can Preferences for Redistribution Explain the Impact of Austerity on Political Participation? Evidence from the UK","authors":"Patricia Justino,&nbsp;Bruno Martorano,&nbsp;Laura Metzger","doi":"10.1111/obes.12640","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12640","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many European countries introduced austerity policies to control rising debt in the wake of the Great Recession of the late 2000s. Recent research suggests that austerity fuelled political polarization, instability, and populism in Europe. However, the motives behind citizens' responses to austerity are not well understood. Using the case of the UK, we study whether preferences for redistribution drive the effect of austerity on political participation in the form of voting, appealing for reform with the government, and protesting. Based on experimental and observational data, we show that individual exposure to austerity increases voting and appealing for reform with the government but not protesting, and changes people's preferences for redistribution. The experimental data show that being exposed to austerity is associated with a 0.128 and a 0.096 unit increase in voting and appealing for reform, respectively. The data also show that exposure to austerity increases preferences for taxing higher incomes and spending more on welfare and social security. This change in preferences explains between 8% and 11% of the effect of exposure to austerity on political participation.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 2","pages":"357-381"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12640","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142206158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}