Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy in the Short Run—Evidence From Norway

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI:10.1111/obes.12667

Yasin Mimir, Mathis Mæhlum, Kjersti-Næss Torstensen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We investigate the short-run distributional effects of both non-systematic and systematic monetary policy on income and wealth inequality using a rich administrative household dataset covering more than two million households in Norway from 1993 to 2015. To this end, we first employ a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model of a small open economy estimated based on Norwegian data to obtain the aggregate effects of non-systematic and systematic monetary policy on key macro-financial variables relevant for quantifying the channels through which monetary policy affects the distribution of income and wealth. We then use household-level microdata to simulate the heterogeneous impact of monetary policy by income and wealth percentiles as well as demographic variables. Our results show that an expansionary monetary policy shock disproportionately benefits the young and households with medium to low income and wealth. These households tend to be highly leveraged homeowners who benefit disproportionately from higher house prices, lower interest costs on debt and a stronger labour market. We find that expansionary monetary policy reduces both income and wealth inequality in the short run and that the systematic conduct of monetary policy in Norway dampens the distributional impact of business cycles on households.

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货币政策的短期分配效应——来自挪威的证据

我们研究了非系统性和系统性货币政策对收入和财富不平等的短期分配效应，使用了一个丰富的行政家庭数据集，涵盖了挪威1993年至2015年的200多万户家庭。为此，我们首先采用基于挪威数据估计的小型开放经济体的中等规模新凯恩斯DSGE模型，以获得非系统性和系统性货币政策对关键宏观金融变量的总体效应，这些变量与量化货币政策影响收入和财富分配的渠道有关。然后，我们使用家庭层面的微观数据来模拟收入和财富百分位数以及人口变量对货币政策的异质影响。我们的研究结果表明，扩张性货币政策冲击对年轻人和中低收入家庭的收益不成比例。这些家庭往往是高杠杆的房主，他们从更高的房价、更低的债务利息成本和更强劲的劳动力市场中获得了不成比例的好处。我们发现，扩张性货币政策在短期内减少了收入和财富不平等，挪威货币政策的系统性行为抑制了商业周期对家庭的分配影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 管理科学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Whilst the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics publishes papers in all areas of applied economics, emphasis is placed on the practical importance, theoretical interest and policy-relevance of their substantive results, as well as on the methodology and technical competence of the research. Contributions on the topical issues of economic policy and the testing of currently controversial economic theories are encouraged, as well as more empirical research on both developed and developing countries.