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Early Life Exposure to Above Average Rainfall and Adult Mental Health* 早期降雨量高于平均水平与成人心理健康*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12548
Mochamad Pasha, Marc Rockmore, Chih Ming Tan, Dhanushka Thamarapani
{"title":"Early Life Exposure to Above Average Rainfall and Adult Mental Health*","authors":"Mochamad Pasha,&nbsp;Marc Rockmore,&nbsp;Chih Ming Tan,&nbsp;Dhanushka Thamarapani","doi":"10.1111/obes.12548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12548","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the effects of early life exposure to above average levels of rainfall on adult mental health. While we find no effect from prenatal exposure, postnatal positive rainfall shocks decrease average Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CESD) mental health scores by 13% and increase the likelihood of depression by 6%, a more than 26% increase relative to the mean. These effects are limited to females. We rule out prenatal stress and income shocks as pathways. Early life exposure to infectious diseases appears to play a limited role but further research is required.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"692-717"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50119911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients* 利用机器学习为福利领取者创建预警系统*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-02 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12550
Dario Sansone, Anna Zhu
{"title":"Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients*","authors":"Dario Sansone,&nbsp;Anna Zhu","doi":"10.1111/obes.12550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12550","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using high-quality nationwide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and 2018. We show that machine learning algorithms can significantly improve predictive accuracy compared to simpler heuristic models or early warning systems currently in use. Specifically, the former predicts the proportion of time individuals are on income support in the subsequent 4 years with greater accuracy, by a magnitude of at least 22% (14 percentage points increase in the R-squared), compared to the latter. This gain can be achieved at no extra cost to practitioners since the algorithms use administrative data currently available to caseworkers. Consequently, our machine learning algorithms can improve the detection of long-term income support recipients, which can potentially enable governments and institutions to offer timely support to these at-risk individuals.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"959-992"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12550","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50117582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe* 理解高度一体化地区的货币溢出：以欧洲为例*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12549
Martin Feldkircher, Helene Schuberth
{"title":"Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe*","authors":"Martin Feldkircher,&nbsp;Helene Schuberth","doi":"10.1111/obes.12549","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12549","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyse why conventional monetary policy tightening in the euro area leads to a deterioration of output in Central-, East and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Our findings show that negative spillovers mainly arise through a decline in CESEE imports and exports, induced by a decrease in euro area demand. Negative spillovers are amplified through knock-on effects through third-countries and cannot be cushioned by favourable exchange rate movements. We also find evidence for a broad-based retrenchment of cross-border bank flows to the region. For the CESEE policymaker, our results indicate a limited power of exchange rate policies to buffer foreign, adverse monetary policy shocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"859-893"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47588735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter* 公共债务与政府支出乘数之间的关系:财政调整很重要*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12547
Yasuharu Iwata, Hirokuni IIboshi
{"title":"The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter*","authors":"Yasuharu Iwata,&nbsp;Hirokuni IIboshi","doi":"10.1111/obes.12547","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12547","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the evolution of government spending multipliers in the post-war USA using a time-varying parameter VAR model. We achieve identification by imposing sign and zero restrictions on the systematic component of policy rules and impulse responses. Our results show that the US multipliers in the post-OBRA93 period are smaller than those in the 1970s. The multipliers are found to be more strongly correlated with the estimated coefficients of the debt-stabilizing rule than the debt-to-gross domestic product ratios. The increased magnitude of fiscal adjustments appears to be the major driving force behind the decline in multipliers rather than debt accumulation itself.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"830-858"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48246591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asymptotic Behavior of Temporal Aggregation in Mixed-Frequency Datasets 混合频率数据集中时间聚集的渐近行为
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12546
Cleiton Guollo Taufemback
{"title":"Asymptotic Behavior of Temporal Aggregation in Mixed-Frequency Datasets","authors":"Cleiton Guollo Taufemback","doi":"10.1111/obes.12546","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12546","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Here, we present an unexplored issue regarding temporal aggregation. When a model contains frequency-dependent coefficients, such as a distinct long- and short-term coefficient, temporal aggregation leads to inconsistent least squares estimates. Because the sub-sampled variable's spectrum is equal to its folded original spectrum, the low-frequency variable may exhibit a mixture of distinct linear relations for a given frequency. We propose a new method to disentangle the frequencies superposition based on band spectrum regression, thus avoiding the inconsistency problem. As a result, we can test for the presence of frequency-dependent coefficients. We use stationary and non-stationary linear semi-parametric models to demonstrate our findings. Our Monte Carlo simulations show good finite sample size and power properties. Finally, our empirical study rejects the presence of a single coefficient for all frequencies between quarterly GDP and monthly US indicators.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"894-909"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49589412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Do People Respond When They Know That Robots Will Take Their Jobs? 当人们知道机器人会抢走他们的工作时，他们会如何回应？
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12544
Christian Gunadi, Hanbyul Ryu
{"title":"How Do People Respond When They Know That Robots Will Take Their Jobs?","authors":"Christian Gunadi,&nbsp;Hanbyul Ryu","doi":"10.1111/obes.12544","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12544","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent years, the USA observed a substantial increase in the adoption of robotic technology. The use of industrial robots in the US economy increased rapidly from about 1 robot per 1,000 workers in 2005 to 1.7 robots per 1,000 workers in 2017, a 70% increase. At the same time, there is a concern that the rapid adoption of robots will transform our society in a way that we have never seen before. In this article, we investigate whether individuals are responding to the increasing use of robots in their locality by altering their schooling decision. The results of the analysis suggest that a 10% increase in robot exposure is associated with an approximately 2.5% rise in college enrolment rate. In the long run, we find evidence that more intense exposure to robots during school ages is associated with an increase in the probability of an individual obtaining a college degree.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"939-958"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43179730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Haste Makes No Waste: Positive Peer Effects of Classroom Speed Competition on Learning 欲速则不达:课堂速度竞争对学习的积极影响
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12545
Hikaru Kawarazaki, Minhaj Mahmud, Yasuyuki Sawada, Mai Seki
{"title":"Haste Makes No Waste: Positive Peer Effects of Classroom Speed Competition on Learning","authors":"Hikaru Kawarazaki,&nbsp;Minhaj Mahmud,&nbsp;Yasuyuki Sawada,&nbsp;Mai Seki","doi":"10.1111/obes.12545","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12545","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the effects of speed competition in classrooms on young pupils' learning outcomes. To examine how faster peers' speed affects slower pupils' speed and learning, we employ students' daily progress data in a self-learning programme at BRAC primary schools in Bangladesh. The programme's unique setting allows us to address the reflection problem reasonably well. While speed competition could generate negative consequences, our results show overall positive peer effects on problem-solving time and scores. The effects are stronger among peers with similar abilities, without negatively affecting others. Our results show efficiency gains from non-market competition in education and learning.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"755-772"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12545","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44718666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom* 英国的部门冲击与货币政策*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12541
Huw Dixon, Jeremy Franklin, Stephen Millard
{"title":"Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom*","authors":"Huw Dixon,&nbsp;Jeremy Franklin,&nbsp;Stephen Millard","doi":"10.1111/obes.12541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12541","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the extent to which monetary policy should respond to movements in sectoral inflation rates using a Generalized Taylor model that takes specific account of the sectoral make-up of the consumer price index. We calibrate the model for each sector using the UK consumer price microdata. We find that a policy rule allowing for different responses to inflation in different sectors outperforms a rule targeting only aggregate inflation, as does a rule responding only to core inflation. However, we find that the optimal sectoral rule only leads to a small <i>absolute</i> improvement in terms of extra consumption.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"805-829"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50127292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative Easing and Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel* 量化宽松与财富不平等:资产价格通道*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-08 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12543
Clara De Luigi, Martin Feldkircher, Philipp Poyntner, Helene Schuberth
{"title":"Quantitative Easing and Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel*","authors":"Clara De Luigi,&nbsp;Martin Feldkircher,&nbsp;Philipp Poyntner,&nbsp;Helene Schuberth","doi":"10.1111/obes.12543","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12543","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We assess the impact of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy, specifically of quantitative easing (QE), on the distribution of household wealth in nine euro area countries. For this purpose, we estimate the effects of a QE shock on housing and risky financial asset prices by means of local projections. We then use these estimates to carry out micro-simulations based on data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). For the majority of the countries under review, expansionary QE via asset prices leads to net wealth inequality increases when measured using wealth indicators that are sensitive to changes at the tails of the wealth distribution. This finding contrasts with results based on the Gini coefficient which point to an equalizing impact of QE. One-third of the households in our sample holds neither housing nor financial wealth and is thus not directly affected by QE measures through the asset prices channel.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 3","pages":"638-670"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12543","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41248036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross Sections 基于重复截面的合成面板测量贫困动态
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12539
Hai-Anh H. Dang, Peter F. Lanjouw
{"title":"Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross Sections","authors":"Hai-Anh H. Dang,&nbsp;Peter F. Lanjouw","doi":"10.1111/obes.12539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12539","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Panel data are rarely available for developing countries. Departing from traditional pseudo-panel methods that require multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty mobility at the cohort level, we develop a procedure that works with as few as two survey rounds and produces point estimates of transitions along the welfare distribution at the more disaggregated household level. Validation using Monte Carlo simulations and real cross-sectional and actual panel survey data – from several countries, spanning different income levels and geographical regions – perform well under various deviations from model assumptions. The method could also inform investigation of other welfare outcome dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 3","pages":"599-622"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12539","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50123740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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