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How Do People Respond When They Know That Robots Will Take Their Jobs? 当人们知道机器人会抢走他们的工作时，他们会如何回应？
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12544
Christian Gunadi, Hanbyul Ryu
{"title":"How Do People Respond When They Know That Robots Will Take Their Jobs?","authors":"Christian Gunadi,&nbsp;Hanbyul Ryu","doi":"10.1111/obes.12544","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12544","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent years, the USA observed a substantial increase in the adoption of robotic technology. The use of industrial robots in the US economy increased rapidly from about 1 robot per 1,000 workers in 2005 to 1.7 robots per 1,000 workers in 2017, a 70% increase. At the same time, there is a concern that the rapid adoption of robots will transform our society in a way that we have never seen before. In this article, we investigate whether individuals are responding to the increasing use of robots in their locality by altering their schooling decision. The results of the analysis suggest that a 10% increase in robot exposure is associated with an approximately 2.5% rise in college enrolment rate. In the long run, we find evidence that more intense exposure to robots during school ages is associated with an increase in the probability of an individual obtaining a college degree.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"939-958"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43179730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Haste Makes No Waste: Positive Peer Effects of Classroom Speed Competition on Learning 欲速则不达:课堂速度竞争对学习的积极影响
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12545
Hikaru Kawarazaki, Minhaj Mahmud, Yasuyuki Sawada, Mai Seki
{"title":"Haste Makes No Waste: Positive Peer Effects of Classroom Speed Competition on Learning","authors":"Hikaru Kawarazaki,&nbsp;Minhaj Mahmud,&nbsp;Yasuyuki Sawada,&nbsp;Mai Seki","doi":"10.1111/obes.12545","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12545","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the effects of speed competition in classrooms on young pupils' learning outcomes. To examine how faster peers' speed affects slower pupils' speed and learning, we employ students' daily progress data in a self-learning programme at BRAC primary schools in Bangladesh. The programme's unique setting allows us to address the reflection problem reasonably well. While speed competition could generate negative consequences, our results show overall positive peer effects on problem-solving time and scores. The effects are stronger among peers with similar abilities, without negatively affecting others. Our results show efficiency gains from non-market competition in education and learning.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"755-772"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12545","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44718666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom* 英国的部门冲击与货币政策*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12541
Huw Dixon, Jeremy Franklin, Stephen Millard
{"title":"Sectoral Shocks and Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom*","authors":"Huw Dixon,&nbsp;Jeremy Franklin,&nbsp;Stephen Millard","doi":"10.1111/obes.12541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12541","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the extent to which monetary policy should respond to movements in sectoral inflation rates using a Generalized Taylor model that takes specific account of the sectoral make-up of the consumer price index. We calibrate the model for each sector using the UK consumer price microdata. We find that a policy rule allowing for different responses to inflation in different sectors outperforms a rule targeting only aggregate inflation, as does a rule responding only to core inflation. However, we find that the optimal sectoral rule only leads to a small <i>absolute</i> improvement in terms of extra consumption.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"805-829"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50127292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative Easing and Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel* 量化宽松与财富不平等:资产价格通道*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-08 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12543
Clara De Luigi, Martin Feldkircher, Philipp Poyntner, Helene Schuberth
{"title":"Quantitative Easing and Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel*","authors":"Clara De Luigi,&nbsp;Martin Feldkircher,&nbsp;Philipp Poyntner,&nbsp;Helene Schuberth","doi":"10.1111/obes.12543","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12543","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We assess the impact of the ECB's unconventional monetary policy, specifically of quantitative easing (QE), on the distribution of household wealth in nine euro area countries. For this purpose, we estimate the effects of a QE shock on housing and risky financial asset prices by means of local projections. We then use these estimates to carry out micro-simulations based on data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). For the majority of the countries under review, expansionary QE via asset prices leads to net wealth inequality increases when measured using wealth indicators that are sensitive to changes at the tails of the wealth distribution. This finding contrasts with results based on the Gini coefficient which point to an equalizing impact of QE. One-third of the households in our sample holds neither housing nor financial wealth and is thus not directly affected by QE measures through the asset prices channel.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 3","pages":"638-670"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12543","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41248036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross Sections 基于重复截面的合成面板测量贫困动态
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12539
Hai-Anh H. Dang, Peter F. Lanjouw
{"title":"Measuring Poverty Dynamics with Synthetic Panels Based on Repeated Cross Sections","authors":"Hai-Anh H. Dang,&nbsp;Peter F. Lanjouw","doi":"10.1111/obes.12539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12539","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Panel data are rarely available for developing countries. Departing from traditional pseudo-panel methods that require multiple rounds of cross-sectional data to study poverty mobility at the cohort level, we develop a procedure that works with as few as two survey rounds and produces point estimates of transitions along the welfare distribution at the more disaggregated household level. Validation using Monte Carlo simulations and real cross-sectional and actual panel survey data – from several countries, spanning different income levels and geographical regions – perform well under various deviations from model assumptions. The method could also inform investigation of other welfare outcome dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 3","pages":"599-622"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12539","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50123740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty* 历史GDP数据不确定性的实时感知*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-02 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12542
Ana Beatriz Galvão, James Mitchell
{"title":"Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty*","authors":"Ana Beatriz Galvão,&nbsp;James Mitchell","doi":"10.1111/obes.12542","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12542","url":null,"abstract":"<p>GDP is measured with error. But data uncertainty is rarely communicated quantitatively in real-time. An exception are the fan charts for historical real GDP growth published by the Bank of England. To assess how well data uncertainty is understood, we first evaluate the accuracy of the historical fan charts. We find that data uncertainties can be accurately quantified, even without judgement, using past revisions data. Secondly, we conduct an online survey to gauge perceptions of GDP data uncertainty across a wider set of experts. Our results call for greater communication of data uncertainties to anchor experts' dispersed expectations.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 3","pages":"457-481"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12542","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46571298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Real-Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes 气泡和碰撞的实时监测
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-01-27 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12540
Emily J. Whitehouse, David I. Harvey, Stephen J. Leybourne
{"title":"Real-Time Monitoring of Bubbles and Crashes","authors":"Emily J. Whitehouse,&nbsp;David I. Harvey,&nbsp;Stephen J. Leybourne","doi":"10.1111/obes.12540","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12540","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Given the financial and economic damage that can be caused by the collapse of an asset price bubble, it is of critical importance to rapidly detect the onset of a crash once a bubble has been identified. We develop a real-time monitoring procedure for detecting a crash episode in a time series. We adopt an autoregressive framework, with bubble and crash regimes modelled by explosive and stationary dynamics, respectively. The first stage of our approach is to monitor for a bubble; conditional on which, we monitor for a crash in real time as new data emerges. Our crash detection procedure employs a statistic based on the different signs of the means of the first differences associated with explosive and stationary regimes, and critical values are obtained using a training period of data. We show that the procedure has desirable asymptotic properties in terms of its ability to rapidly detect a crash while never indicating a crash earlier than one occurs. Monte Carlo simulations further demonstrate that our procedure can offer a well-controlled false positive rate during a bubble regime. Application to the US housing market demonstrates the efficacy of our procedure in rapidly detecting the house price crash of 2006.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 3","pages":"482-513"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12540","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42346274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Selective Mortality and the Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Natural Disasters 选择性死亡率与早期暴露于自然灾害的长期影响
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-01-25 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12537
Margaret Triyana, Xing Xia
{"title":"Selective Mortality and the Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Natural Disasters","authors":"Margaret Triyana,&nbsp;Xing Xia","doi":"10.1111/obes.12537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12537","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze the effects of early-life shocks in the Philippines and find that <i>in utero</i> exposure to severe typhoons is associated with adverse outcomes. We exploit variations in typhoon exposure and sharp increases in short-term disaster relief efforts in the 1960s. Before the increase in disaster relief efforts, <i>in utero</i> exposure to severe typhoons was associated with higher mortality (a 9% reduction in cohort size); survivors exhibited similar levels of human capital as the unaffected. After the increase in disaster relief, the mortality effects were mitigated; however, survivors exhibited lower human capital in the long term. We offer suggestive evidence that the observed changes in adverse long-term effects are due to the relief efforts' effectiveness in increasing survival probability.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"773-804"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50154176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Variable Screening and Model Averaging for Expectile Regressions 期望回归的变量筛选和模型平均
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-01-24 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12538
Yundong Tu, Siwei Wang
{"title":"Variable Screening and Model Averaging for Expectile Regressions","authors":"Yundong Tu,&nbsp;Siwei Wang","doi":"10.1111/obes.12538","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12538","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Expectile regression is a useful tool in modelling data with heterogeneous conditional distributions. This paper introduces two new concepts, i.e. the expectile correlation and expectile partial correlation, which can measure the contribution from each regressor to the response in expectile regression. In ultra-high dimensional setting, the expectile partial correlation, which provides an importance ranking of the predictors, is found useful for variable screening. Theoretical results indicate that the proposed screening procedure can achieve the sure screening set. Additionally, a model selection method via extended Bayesian information criterion (EBIC) and a jackknife model averaging (JMA) method are suggested after the screening step to address model uncertainty. The screening consistency of EBIC, the asymptotic optimality of JMA in the sense of minimizing out-of-sample expectile final prediction error, and the sparsity of JMA weight are then established. Finally, numerical results demonstrate the nice performance of our proposed methods.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 3","pages":"574-598"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44639785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Estimation of Panel Data Models with Mixed Sampling Frequencies* 具有混合采样频率的面板数据模型的估计*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-01-15 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12536
Yimin Yang, Fei Jia, Haoran Li
{"title":"Estimation of Panel Data Models with Mixed Sampling Frequencies*","authors":"Yimin Yang,&nbsp;Fei Jia,&nbsp;Haoran Li","doi":"10.1111/obes.12536","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12536","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Standard panel models usually assume that data are available at the same frequency. Occasionally, researchers might work with variables sampled at different frequencies. A common practice is to aggregate all variables to the same frequency by an equal weighting scheme. We show that such a simple aggregation scheme results in biases for common estimators. We propose a data-driven method to determine weights for aggregation. We further demonstrate that, in contrast with single-frequency panel models, the Mundlak device and the Chamberlain's approach lead to different estimators for panels with mixed sampling frequencies. The proposed estimators have satisfying finite sample performances in various simulation designs. As an empirical illustration, we apply the new method to the estimation of the effects of temperature fluctuations on economic growth. The empirical evidence shows that the temperature shocks mainly work through the level effect instead of the growth effect for poor countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 3","pages":"514-544"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46464107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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