美国COVID - 19经济衰退排序:宏观经济驱动因素是什么?

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI:10.1111/obes.12573

Max Breitenlechner, Martin Geiger, Daniel Gründler, Johann Scharler

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们运用结构向量自回归分析法，将美国 COVID-19 大流行病引发的工业生产增长率和通货膨胀率波动分解为总需求、总供给和不确定性冲击。虽然这三类冲击都对产出和通胀动态有所影响，但经济不确定性的激增比总需求或总供给的中断对产出下降的影响更大。2021 年，不确定性的下降和不利的总供给冲击在刺激通货膨胀方面同样重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Sequencing the COVID-19 Recession in the USA: What Were the Macroeconomic Drivers?

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Sequencing the COVID-19 Recession in the USA: What Were the Macroeconomic Drivers?

We apply a structural vectorautoregressive analysis to decompose fluctuations in the growth rate of industrial production and inflation precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA into aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and uncertainty shocks. While all three types of shocks contributed to output and inflation dynamics, the surge in economic uncertainty contributed to the decline in output more strongly than aggregate demand or aggregate supply disruptions. In 2021, the decline in uncertainty and adverse aggregate supply shocks emerged to be similarly important in spurring inflation.

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来源期刊

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 管理科学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Whilst the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics publishes papers in all areas of applied economics, emphasis is placed on the practical importance, theoretical interest and policy-relevance of their substantive results, as well as on the methodology and technical competence of the research. Contributions on the topical issues of economic policy and the testing of currently controversial economic theories are encouraged, as well as more empirical research on both developed and developing countries.