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Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics最新文献

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Job Polarization and the Declining Wages of Young Female Workers in the United Kingdom* 工作两极分化与英国年轻女工工资下降*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12557
Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli, Jay Rappaport
{"title":"Job Polarization and the Declining Wages of Young Female Workers in the United Kingdom*","authors":"Era Dabla-Norris,&nbsp;Carlo Pizzinelli,&nbsp;Jay Rappaport","doi":"10.1111/obes.12557","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12557","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine whether the decline of routine occupations contributed to rising wage inequality between young and prime-age non-college educated women in the UK over 2001-2019. We estimate age, period, and cohort effects for the likelihood of employment in different occupations and the wages earned therein. For recent generations, cohort effects indicate a higher likelihood of employment in low-paying manual jobs relative to high-paying abstract ones. Cohort effects also underpin falling wages for post-1980 cohorts across all occupations. We find that the latter channel, rather than job polarization, has been the main driver of rising inter-age inequality among non-college females.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 6","pages":"1185-1210"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41438240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects* 具有固定效应的动态面板数据模型的异方差-稳健标准误差*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12554
Chirok Han, Hyoungjong Kim
{"title":"Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects*","authors":"Chirok Han,&nbsp;Hyoungjong Kim","doi":"10.1111/obes.12554","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12554","url":null,"abstract":"<p>For linear panel data models with fixed effects, cluster-robust covariance estimation does not use variability over time. The extant heteroskedasticity-robust methods available under strict exogeneity do not generalize to dynamic models. We propose novel robust covariance estimators under a strong version of serial uncorrelatedness, where serial uncorrelatedness is required to identify dynamic panel models. Asymptotics are established, and simulations verify theoretical findings. The estimator can apply to the popular dynamic IV-GMM estimators and be a sharper alternative for cluster-robust covariance estimators in panel data models with limited cross-sectional information.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"1135-1155"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41943779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation for VAR Models with Explosive Roots* 具有爆炸根的VAR模型的似无关回归估计
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12551
Ye Chen, Jian Li, Qiyuan Li
{"title":"Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation for VAR Models with Explosive Roots*","authors":"Ye Chen,&nbsp;Jian Li,&nbsp;Qiyuan Li","doi":"10.1111/obes.12551","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12551","url":null,"abstract":"<p>For VAR models with common explosive root, the OLS estimator of the autoregressive coefficient matrix is inconsistent (refer to Nielsen, 2009 and Phillips and Magdalinos, 2013). Although Phillips &amp; Magdalinos (2013) proposed using the future observations as the instrumental variable for removing the endogeneity from VAR models, type I error occurs when testing for a common explosive root from the distinct explosive roots before the implementation of IV estimation. Such error creates bias and variance in the estimate and further causes incorrect inference in the structural analysis such as forecast error decomposition (FEVD). Hence, we propose using of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation for VAR models with explosive roots. Our SUR estimator is consistent in the case of both distinct explosive roots and common explosive root. We also consider models with drift in the system for generalization. Simulations show that the SUR estimate performs better than OLS and IV estimate in the case of both a common explosive root and distinct explosive roots case. In structural FEVD analysis, simulations show that SUR yields a different result from OLS and IV. We demonstrate the use of SUR in FEVD for agricultural commodity markets between 3 July 2010, and 29 January 2011.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"910-937"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43039061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models* 测试基于研发的内生增长模型*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12552
Peter K. Kruse-Andersen
{"title":"Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models*","authors":"Peter K. Kruse-Andersen","doi":"10.1111/obes.12552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12552","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines US productivity growth through the lens of R&amp;D-based growth models. A general R&amp;D-based model, nesting different model varieties, is developed. These varieties are tested using a novel cointegrating relationship and US data for the period 1953–2018. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and support for other varieties including the semi-endogenous variety. Further, the results are systematically consistent with the presence of fishing-out effects in knowledge production, implying that productivity-enhancing innovations become increasingly harder to achieve as technologies become more advanced. Forecasts suggest that the US productivity growth slowdown continues over the coming decades.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"1083-1110"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12552","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50127164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-sectional Gravity Models, PPML Estimation, and the Bias Correction of the Two-Way Cluster-Robust Standard Errors* 横截面重力模型、PPML估计和双向聚类稳健标准误差的偏差校正*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12553
Michael Pfaffermayr
{"title":"Cross-sectional Gravity Models, PPML Estimation, and the Bias Correction of the Two-Way Cluster-Robust Standard Errors*","authors":"Michael Pfaffermayr","doi":"10.1111/obes.12553","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12553","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In cross-section gravity models the two-way cluster-robust standard errors of the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimates tend to be considerably downward biased. However, two-way clustering can be avoided if intra-cluster correlation is induced by country-specific trade shocks with uniform pass through (equi-correlation) and the gravity model includes exporter and importer country fixed effects. In this case the pseudo-within-transformation of the PPML estimator projects out the corresponding components of the disturbances. In Monte Carlo simulations the Pustejovsky and Tipton (2018) bias correction for independent disturbances (i.e. ignoring clustering) reveals just a small downward bias of the estimated standard errors and confidence intervals with nearly correct coverage rates. Under deviations from equi-correlation the bias is somewhat larger, but still comparable to the bias of the cluster-robust standard errors with Pustejovsky and Tipton (2018) bias correction.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"1111-1134"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12553","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42278446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early Life Exposure to Above Average Rainfall and Adult Mental Health* 早期降雨量高于平均水平与成人心理健康*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12548
Mochamad Pasha, Marc Rockmore, Chih Ming Tan, Dhanushka Thamarapani
{"title":"Early Life Exposure to Above Average Rainfall and Adult Mental Health*","authors":"Mochamad Pasha,&nbsp;Marc Rockmore,&nbsp;Chih Ming Tan,&nbsp;Dhanushka Thamarapani","doi":"10.1111/obes.12548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12548","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the effects of early life exposure to above average levels of rainfall on adult mental health. While we find no effect from prenatal exposure, postnatal positive rainfall shocks decrease average Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CESD) mental health scores by 13% and increase the likelihood of depression by 6%, a more than 26% increase relative to the mean. These effects are limited to females. We rule out prenatal stress and income shocks as pathways. Early life exposure to infectious diseases appears to play a limited role but further research is required.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"692-717"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50119911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients* 利用机器学习为福利领取者创建预警系统*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-02 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12550
Dario Sansone, Anna Zhu
{"title":"Using Machine Learning to Create an Early Warning System for Welfare Recipients*","authors":"Dario Sansone,&nbsp;Anna Zhu","doi":"10.1111/obes.12550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12550","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using high-quality nationwide social security data combined with machine learning tools, we develop predictive models of income support receipt intensities for any payment enrolee in the Australian social security system between 2014 and 2018. We show that machine learning algorithms can significantly improve predictive accuracy compared to simpler heuristic models or early warning systems currently in use. Specifically, the former predicts the proportion of time individuals are on income support in the subsequent 4 years with greater accuracy, by a magnitude of at least 22% (14 percentage points increase in the R-squared), compared to the latter. This gain can be achieved at no extra cost to practitioners since the algorithms use administrative data currently available to caseworkers. Consequently, our machine learning algorithms can improve the detection of long-term income support recipients, which can potentially enable governments and institutions to offer timely support to these at-risk individuals.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"959-992"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12550","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50117582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe* 理解高度一体化地区的货币溢出：以欧洲为例*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12549
Martin Feldkircher, Helene Schuberth
{"title":"Understanding Monetary Spillovers in Highly Integrated Regions: The Case of Europe*","authors":"Martin Feldkircher,&nbsp;Helene Schuberth","doi":"10.1111/obes.12549","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12549","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyse why conventional monetary policy tightening in the euro area leads to a deterioration of output in Central-, East and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Our findings show that negative spillovers mainly arise through a decline in CESEE imports and exports, induced by a decrease in euro area demand. Negative spillovers are amplified through knock-on effects through third-countries and cannot be cushioned by favourable exchange rate movements. We also find evidence for a broad-based retrenchment of cross-border bank flows to the region. For the CESEE policymaker, our results indicate a limited power of exchange rate policies to buffer foreign, adverse monetary policy shocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"859-893"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47588735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter* 公共债务与政府支出乘数之间的关系:财政调整很重要*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12547
Yasuharu Iwata, Hirokuni IIboshi
{"title":"The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter*","authors":"Yasuharu Iwata,&nbsp;Hirokuni IIboshi","doi":"10.1111/obes.12547","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12547","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the evolution of government spending multipliers in the post-war USA using a time-varying parameter VAR model. We achieve identification by imposing sign and zero restrictions on the systematic component of policy rules and impulse responses. Our results show that the US multipliers in the post-OBRA93 period are smaller than those in the 1970s. The multipliers are found to be more strongly correlated with the estimated coefficients of the debt-stabilizing rule than the debt-to-gross domestic product ratios. The increased magnitude of fiscal adjustments appears to be the major driving force behind the decline in multipliers rather than debt accumulation itself.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"830-858"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48246591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asymptotic Behavior of Temporal Aggregation in Mixed-Frequency Datasets 混合频率数据集中时间聚集的渐近行为
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12546
Cleiton Guollo Taufemback
{"title":"Asymptotic Behavior of Temporal Aggregation in Mixed-Frequency Datasets","authors":"Cleiton Guollo Taufemback","doi":"10.1111/obes.12546","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12546","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Here, we present an unexplored issue regarding temporal aggregation. When a model contains frequency-dependent coefficients, such as a distinct long- and short-term coefficient, temporal aggregation leads to inconsistent least squares estimates. Because the sub-sampled variable's spectrum is equal to its folded original spectrum, the low-frequency variable may exhibit a mixture of distinct linear relations for a given frequency. We propose a new method to disentangle the frequencies superposition based on band spectrum regression, thus avoiding the inconsistency problem. As a result, we can test for the presence of frequency-dependent coefficients. We use stationary and non-stationary linear semi-parametric models to demonstrate our findings. Our Monte Carlo simulations show good finite sample size and power properties. Finally, our empirical study rejects the presence of a single coefficient for all frequencies between quarterly GDP and monthly US indicators.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"894-909"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49589412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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