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Drought-Reliefs and Partisanship 干旱救济和党派关系
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12560
Federico Boffa, Francisco Cavalcanti, Christian Fons-Rosen, Amedeo Piolatto
{"title":"Drought-Reliefs and Partisanship","authors":"Federico Boffa,&nbsp;Francisco Cavalcanti,&nbsp;Christian Fons-Rosen,&nbsp;Amedeo Piolatto","doi":"10.1111/obes.12560","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12560","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We combine a model of symmetric information with selfish and office-motivated politicians and a Regression Discontinuity Design analysis based on close municipal elections to study partisan bias in the allocation of drought aid relief in Brazil. We identify a novel pattern of distributive politics whereby partisan bias materialises only before municipal elections, while it disappears before presidential elections. Furthermore, before mayoral elections, it fades for extreme (high or low) aridity levels while persisting for moderate levels. Our empirical results show that in this case alignment increases the probability of receiving aid relief by a factor of two (equivalent to 18.1 percentage points).</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 2","pages":"187-208"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12560","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43615244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Medium-Run Impacts of Iron-Fortified School Lunch on Anaemia, Cognition, and Learning Outcomes in India* 印度强化铁学校午餐对贫血、认知和学习成果的中期影响*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-28 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12559
Liza von Grafenstein, Abhijeet Kumar, Santosh Kumar, Sebastian Vollmer
{"title":"Medium-Run Impacts of Iron-Fortified School Lunch on Anaemia, Cognition, and Learning Outcomes in India*","authors":"Liza von Grafenstein,&nbsp;Abhijeet Kumar,&nbsp;Santosh Kumar,&nbsp;Sebastian Vollmer","doi":"10.1111/obes.12559","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12559","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using a phase-in research design, we provide experimental evidence on the impacts of early versus late initiation of iron fortification in school lunch programmes on children's health and cognitive outcomes in India. We find higher haemoglobin levels and a lower likelihood of anaemia in the early treatment group that experienced 4 years of treatment, compared to the late treatment group that was exposed to one and a half years of treatment. Despite significant health gains, we do not find evidence for treatment effects on cognitive and educational outcomes. Heterogeneity analyses show evidence of gendered effects – the anaemia reduction is lower among females relative to males.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 6","pages":"1262-1294"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12559","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44896561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Furlough and Household Financial Distress during the COVID-19 Pandemic* COVID-19大流行期间的休假和家庭财务困难*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-25 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12556
Christoph Görtz, Danny McGowan, Mallory Yeromonahos
{"title":"Furlough and Household Financial Distress during the COVID-19 Pandemic*","authors":"Christoph Görtz,&nbsp;Danny McGowan,&nbsp;Mallory Yeromonahos","doi":"10.1111/obes.12556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12556","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study how being furloughed affects household financial distress during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom. Furlough increases the probability of late housing and bill payments by 30% and 19%, respectively. At the aggregate level, furlough increases the incidence of financial distress by 3.38 percentage points. To offset furlough-induced income reductions, individuals significantly reduce consumption and spend savings. Relative to unemployment, the potential alternative in the absence of a furlough scheme, furlough reduces the incidence of financial distress by 95%. Estimates show an 80% government contribution to furloughed workers' wages minimizes the incidence of financial distress at the lowest cost to taxpayers.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 6","pages":"1157-1184"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12556","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134813976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Job Protection and Mortgage Conditions: Evidence from Italian Administrative Data* 工作保护和抵押条件:来自意大利行政数据的证据*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-19 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12558
Paolo Emilio Mistrulli, Tommaso Oliviero, Zeno Rotondi, Alberto Zazzaro
{"title":"Job Protection and Mortgage Conditions: Evidence from Italian Administrative Data*","authors":"Paolo Emilio Mistrulli,&nbsp;Tommaso Oliviero,&nbsp;Zeno Rotondi,&nbsp;Alberto Zazzaro","doi":"10.1111/obes.12558","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12558","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper combines administrative data from the Italian social security administration and proprietary data from a major Italian commercial bank to analyse the impact of job protection legislation on mortgage conditions. An exogenous change in the degree of job protection against individual dismissals of workers with open-ended contracts is identified by exploiting the labour market reform of 2015, the ‘Jobs Act’, which weakened the employment protection of new hires at medium-sized and large private firms. We find that the lessening of job security led to lower mortgage amounts and a fall in leveraging capacity, as measured by the loan-to-value ratio. The impact of job insecurity is mitigated by the presence of co-mortgagors; it is aggravated for young and low-income mortgagors.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 6","pages":"1211-1237"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12558","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45823308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Mixed Frequency BVAR for the Euro Area Labour Market* 欧元区劳动力市场的混合频率BVAR*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12555
Agostino Consolo, Claudia Foroni, Catalina Martínez Hernández
{"title":"A Mixed Frequency BVAR for the Euro Area Labour Market*","authors":"Agostino Consolo,&nbsp;Claudia Foroni,&nbsp;Catalina Martínez Hernández","doi":"10.1111/obes.12555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12555","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We introduce a Bayesian mixed frequency VAR model for the aggregate euro area labour market that features a structural identification via sign restrictions. The purpose of this paper is twofold: we aim at (i) providing reliable and timely forecasts of key labour market variables and (ii) enhancing the economic interpretation of the main movements in the labour market. We find satisfactory results in terms of nowcasting and forecasting, especially for employment growth. Furthermore, we look into the shocks that drove the labour market and macroeconomic dynamics from 2002 to 2022, with an insight also on the COVID-19 recession. While demand shocks were the main drivers during the Global Financial Crisis, technology and wage bargaining factors, reflecting the degree of lockdown-related restrictions and job retention schemes, have been important drivers of key labour market variables during the pandemic.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"1048-1082"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50135420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Job Polarization and the Declining Wages of Young Female Workers in the United Kingdom* 工作两极分化与英国年轻女工工资下降*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12557
Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli, Jay Rappaport
{"title":"Job Polarization and the Declining Wages of Young Female Workers in the United Kingdom*","authors":"Era Dabla-Norris,&nbsp;Carlo Pizzinelli,&nbsp;Jay Rappaport","doi":"10.1111/obes.12557","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12557","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine whether the decline of routine occupations contributed to rising wage inequality between young and prime-age non-college educated women in the UK over 2001-2019. We estimate age, period, and cohort effects for the likelihood of employment in different occupations and the wages earned therein. For recent generations, cohort effects indicate a higher likelihood of employment in low-paying manual jobs relative to high-paying abstract ones. Cohort effects also underpin falling wages for post-1980 cohorts across all occupations. We find that the latter channel, rather than job polarization, has been the main driver of rising inter-age inequality among non-college females.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 6","pages":"1185-1210"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41438240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects* 具有固定效应的动态面板数据模型的异方差-稳健标准误差*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12554
Chirok Han, Hyoungjong Kim
{"title":"Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects*","authors":"Chirok Han,&nbsp;Hyoungjong Kim","doi":"10.1111/obes.12554","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12554","url":null,"abstract":"<p>For linear panel data models with fixed effects, cluster-robust covariance estimation does not use variability over time. The extant heteroskedasticity-robust methods available under strict exogeneity do not generalize to dynamic models. We propose novel robust covariance estimators under a strong version of serial uncorrelatedness, where serial uncorrelatedness is required to identify dynamic panel models. Asymptotics are established, and simulations verify theoretical findings. The estimator can apply to the popular dynamic IV-GMM estimators and be a sharper alternative for cluster-robust covariance estimators in panel data models with limited cross-sectional information.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"1135-1155"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41943779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation for VAR Models with Explosive Roots* 具有爆炸根的VAR模型的似无关回归估计
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12551
Ye Chen, Jian Li, Qiyuan Li
{"title":"Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation for VAR Models with Explosive Roots*","authors":"Ye Chen,&nbsp;Jian Li,&nbsp;Qiyuan Li","doi":"10.1111/obes.12551","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12551","url":null,"abstract":"<p>For VAR models with common explosive root, the OLS estimator of the autoregressive coefficient matrix is inconsistent (refer to Nielsen, 2009 and Phillips and Magdalinos, 2013). Although Phillips &amp; Magdalinos (2013) proposed using the future observations as the instrumental variable for removing the endogeneity from VAR models, type I error occurs when testing for a common explosive root from the distinct explosive roots before the implementation of IV estimation. Such error creates bias and variance in the estimate and further causes incorrect inference in the structural analysis such as forecast error decomposition (FEVD). Hence, we propose using of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation for VAR models with explosive roots. Our SUR estimator is consistent in the case of both distinct explosive roots and common explosive root. We also consider models with drift in the system for generalization. Simulations show that the SUR estimate performs better than OLS and IV estimate in the case of both a common explosive root and distinct explosive roots case. In structural FEVD analysis, simulations show that SUR yields a different result from OLS and IV. We demonstrate the use of SUR in FEVD for agricultural commodity markets between 3 July 2010, and 29 January 2011.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 4","pages":"910-937"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43039061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models* 测试基于研发的内生增长模型*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-10 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12552
Peter K. Kruse-Andersen
{"title":"Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models*","authors":"Peter K. Kruse-Andersen","doi":"10.1111/obes.12552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12552","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines US productivity growth through the lens of R&amp;D-based growth models. A general R&amp;D-based model, nesting different model varieties, is developed. These varieties are tested using a novel cointegrating relationship and US data for the period 1953–2018. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and support for other varieties including the semi-endogenous variety. Further, the results are systematically consistent with the presence of fishing-out effects in knowledge production, implying that productivity-enhancing innovations become increasingly harder to achieve as technologies become more advanced. Forecasts suggest that the US productivity growth slowdown continues over the coming decades.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"1083-1110"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12552","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50127164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-sectional Gravity Models, PPML Estimation, and the Bias Correction of the Two-Way Cluster-Robust Standard Errors* 横截面重力模型、PPML估计和双向聚类稳健标准误差的偏差校正*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12553
Michael Pfaffermayr
{"title":"Cross-sectional Gravity Models, PPML Estimation, and the Bias Correction of the Two-Way Cluster-Robust Standard Errors*","authors":"Michael Pfaffermayr","doi":"10.1111/obes.12553","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12553","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In cross-section gravity models the two-way cluster-robust standard errors of the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimates tend to be considerably downward biased. However, two-way clustering can be avoided if intra-cluster correlation is induced by country-specific trade shocks with uniform pass through (equi-correlation) and the gravity model includes exporter and importer country fixed effects. In this case the pseudo-within-transformation of the PPML estimator projects out the corresponding components of the disturbances. In Monte Carlo simulations the Pustejovsky and Tipton (2018) bias correction for independent disturbances (i.e. ignoring clustering) reveals just a small downward bias of the estimated standard errors and confidence intervals with nearly correct coverage rates. Under deviations from equi-correlation the bias is somewhat larger, but still comparable to the bias of the cluster-robust standard errors with Pustejovsky and Tipton (2018) bias correction.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"85 5","pages":"1111-1134"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12553","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42278446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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