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Chinese Import Competition and Prices: Evidence from India* 中国进口竞争与价格：印度的证据*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12632
Pavel Chakraborty, Michael Henry, Rahul Singh
{"title":"Chinese Import Competition and Prices: Evidence from India*","authors":"Pavel Chakraborty,&nbsp;Michael Henry,&nbsp;Rahul Singh","doi":"10.1111/obes.12632","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12632","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How do output prices respond to trade shocks? Using detailed firm-product level data on sales and quantity between 1996 and 2007, we study the causal effect of Chinese import competition on prices for Indian manufacturing firms. We find that Chinese import competition induces a significant decline in firm-product prices. A 1 percentage point increase in the Chinese import penetration ratio reduces firm-product prices by 3.5%. Further, this decline in prices is driven by a decline in markup, conditional on costs, as opposed to the pass through of cost savings to prices – providing evidence for <i>pro-competitive effect</i>. This decline in prices and markup is less pronounced for firms owned by Business Groups compared to stand-alone, privately owned firms. We also document a large decrease in marginal costs and an increase in markup with no significant effect on prices for firms on account of increased access to imported Chinese inputs.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1484-1510"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141548101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Home‐Country Natural Disasters and Mental Health of Migrants* 母国自然灾害与移民的心理健康 *
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12631
Prashant Bharadwaj, Denise Doiron, Denzil G. Fiebig, Agne Suziedelyte
{"title":"Home‐Country Natural Disasters and Mental Health of Migrants*","authors":"Prashant Bharadwaj, Denise Doiron, Denzil G. Fiebig, Agne Suziedelyte","doi":"10.1111/obes.12631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12631","url":null,"abstract":"While natural disasters cause loss of life and worsen health in the local areas they impact, the overall health impacts of these disasters can be more widespread. Using linked administrative and survey data (the 45 and Up Study) from Australia, a country where one in four residents was born overseas, we show that migrant mental health is significantly affected by home‐country natural disasters. In the 3 months following a disaster, mental health related drug use and visits to mental health specialists increase by 7% and 34%, respectively. The effects persist for up to 12 months after the initial shock. To place these effects in context we provide suggestive comparisons to the impacts of home‐country terrorist attacks and macroeconomic shocks on mental health, and also compare the effects on mental health to physical health conditions of migrants.","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"171 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changes in Inflation Dynamics in Korea: Global Factor, Country Factor and Their Propagation* 韩国通货膨胀动态的变化：全球因素、国家因素及其传播*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12630
Yun Jung Kim, Noh-Sun Kwark
{"title":"Changes in Inflation Dynamics in Korea: Global Factor, Country Factor and Their Propagation*","authors":"Yun Jung Kim,&nbsp;Noh-Sun Kwark","doi":"10.1111/obes.12630","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12630","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the influence of global and country factors on inflation movements in Korea using a multi-level factor model. Our results indicate that country factors showed a more pronounced alignment with inflation in Korea up to the mid-2000s, having particularly strong impacts around the Asian financial crisis. Beyond the mid-2000s, global factors played a more influential role in shaping inflation. This increased influence of global factors on inflation became particularly apparent during the notable inflationary surge following the COVID-19 pandemic. We construct structural models to identify global and country shocks and find that the effect of global shocks persists for a longer period, whereas the immediate impact of country shocks is more pronounced. Global shocks have a greater influence on producer price index and import price index inflation compared to consumer price index (CPI) or core CPI inflation. We further find that energy prices closely correlate with global factors, while exchange rates are highly correlated with country factors in Korea.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1373-1408"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12630","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Should Developed Economies Manage International Capital Flows? An Empirical and Welfare Analysis* 发达经济体应否管理国际资本流动？实证与福利分析*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12628
Dennis Bonam, Gavin Goy, Emmanuel de Veirman
{"title":"Should Developed Economies Manage International Capital Flows? An Empirical and Welfare Analysis*","authors":"Dennis Bonam,&nbsp;Gavin Goy,&nbsp;Emmanuel de Veirman","doi":"10.1111/obes.12628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12628","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The literature on the effects of country risk premium shocks has largely focused on emerging market economies. We empirically show that in developed economies, risk premium shocks explain a non-trivial share of aggregate fluctuations and are key drivers of real activity during crises. Our empirical results and results from a two-country New Keynesian model indicate that an increase in the risk premium leads to a reduction in aggregate output under monetary union, but not so in countries with flexible exchange rates and independent monetary policy. Model simulations suggest that managing international capital flows enhances welfare in countries under monetary union.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1511-1538"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12628","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How Large is the Sovereign Greenium?* 主权绿ium 有多大？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12619
Sakai Ando, Chenxu Fu, Francisco Roch, Ursula Wiriadinata
{"title":"How Large is the Sovereign Greenium?*","authors":"Sakai Ando,&nbsp;Chenxu Fu,&nbsp;Francisco Roch,&nbsp;Ursula Wiriadinata","doi":"10.1111/obes.12619","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12619","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper assembles a comprehensive sovereign green bond database and estimates the sovereign <i>greenium</i>. The development of green bond markets has been one of the most important financial breakthroughs in the domain of sustainable finance during the last 15 years. A central pecuniary benefit for green bond issuers has been that these bonds exhibit a positive green premium (<i>greenium</i>), that is, a lower yield relative to a similar conventional bond. Yet, issuances at the sovereign level have been relatively recent and not well documented in the literature. We find that green bonds are issued at a relatively small premium (4 basis points on average) in Advanced Economies. Yet, importantly, the <i>greenium</i> is growing over time and is considerably larger (11 basis points on average) for Emerging Market Economies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1472-1483"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions 需求和供给驱动的经济衰退中的欧元区政府支出乘数
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12626
Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta, Emanuel Gasteiger, Giovanni Melina
{"title":"The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions","authors":"Mario Di Serio,&nbsp;Matteo Fragetta,&nbsp;Emanuel Gasteiger,&nbsp;Giovanni Melina","doi":"10.1111/obes.12626","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12626","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ - $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1342-1372"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141272371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Kick for the GDP: The Effect of Winning the FIFA World Cup 为 GDP 踢一脚赢得国际足联世界杯的影响
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12627
Marco Mello
{"title":"A Kick for the GDP: The Effect of Winning the FIFA World Cup","authors":"Marco Mello","doi":"10.1111/obes.12627","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12627","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper uses OECD data to examine whether winning the men's FIFA World Cup boosts GDP growth, as claimed by analysts and media outlets concomitantly with every edition of this football competition. By implementing both an event-study design and a synthetic difference-in-difference strategy, the analysis shows that winning the World Cup increases year-over-year GDP growth by at least 0.48 percentage points in the two subsequent quarters. This result seems primarily driven by enhanced export growth, which is consistent with a greater appeal enjoyed by national products and services on the global market after victory in a major sporting event.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1313-1341"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12627","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141190501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demographics and Emissions: The Life Cycle of Consumption Carbon Intensity 人口与排放：消费碳强度的生命周期
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-25 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12617
Henrique S. Basso, Richard Jaimes, Omar Rachedi
{"title":"Demographics and Emissions: The Life Cycle of Consumption Carbon Intensity","authors":"Henrique S. Basso,&nbsp;Richard Jaimes,&nbsp;Omar Rachedi","doi":"10.1111/obes.12617","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12617","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The consumption carbon intensity – defined as the carbon emissions per unit of consumption – varies with age: it is hump-shaped over the life cycle, but becomes flatter at high levels of income. We document this novel fact using US household-level consumption data. This relationship holds not only at the individual level, but also at the aggregate: we leverage information across US states and countries all around the world to show that the carbon intensity of the economy depends on the population age structure. Consequently, policy changes that alter carbon prices affect relatively more middle-age individuals, and especially so in low-income economies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1409-1437"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141152958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter* 用新凯恩斯主义菲利普斯曲线预测通货膨胀：频率问题*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12618
Manuel M. F. Martins, Fabio Verona
{"title":"Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter*","authors":"Manuel M. F. Martins,&nbsp;Fabio Verona","doi":"10.1111/obes.12618","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12618","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We forecast US inflation with a new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. Our method consists of decomposing the time series of inflation and its NKPC predictors into several frequency bands, forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation, and then summing up those forecasts to obtain the forecast for aggregate inflation. We find that (i) accurately forecasting the low frequency of inflation is, on average, crucial to successfully forecast inflation; (ii) our NKPC low-frequency forecast model consistently and significantly outperforms the time-series NKPC and standard benchmark models; (iii) the low frequencies of inflation expectations and unemployment are the key predictors; and (iv) optimally switching on / off the forecasts of each frequency components of inflation at each period allows to outstandingly track inflation and show that all frequencies of inflation matter.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"811-832"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141104480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID-19 Pandemic* 预测 COVID-19 大流行后经济衰退概率的新方法*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12616
Maximo Camacho, Salvador Ramallo, Manuel Ruiz
{"title":"A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID-19 Pandemic*","authors":"Maximo Camacho,&nbsp;Salvador Ramallo,&nbsp;Manuel Ruiz","doi":"10.1111/obes.12616","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12616","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Standard recession forecasting based on economic indicators has become unsettled due to COVID-19 pandemic's limited but influential data. This paper proposes a new non-parametric approach to computing predictive probabilities of future recessions that is robust to influential observations and other data irregularities. The method simulates forecasts using past data histories embedded into a symbolic space. Then, the forecasts are converted into probability statements, which are weighted by the forecast probabilities of their respective symbols. Using GDP data from G7, our proposal outperforms other parametric approaches in classifying future national business cycle phases, especially including data from 2020 in the sample.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"833-855"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12616","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140978733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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