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The Implications of Routine-Biased Technological Change on Hours Worked Fluctuations* 偏重常规的技术变革对工时波动的影响*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12637
Sébastien Bock, Idriss Fontaine
{"title":"The Implications of Routine-Biased Technological Change on Hours Worked Fluctuations*","authors":"Sébastien Bock,&nbsp;Idriss Fontaine","doi":"10.1111/obes.12637","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12637","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Technological change has been biased towards replacing routine labour over the past four decades. We study the implications of those shifts in the task composition of labour demand on hours worked fluctuations. We build quarterly time series on hours worked and task premiums from the CPS and assess the effects of routine-biased technological change by estimating a VAR model with long-run exclusion and sign restrictions. The results indicate that the decline in total hours worked is driven by routine-biased technology shocks through a decline in routine hours. These shocks generate recognizable aggregate fluctuations pointing out to their potential relevance for business cycles.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"195-251"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12637","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142206157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bayesian Estimation of Fixed Effects Models with Large Datasets* 大型数据集固定效应模型的贝叶斯估计*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12641
Hang Qian
{"title":"Bayesian Estimation of Fixed Effects Models with Large Datasets*","authors":"Hang Qian","doi":"10.1111/obes.12641","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12641","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In hierarchical prior longitudinal models, random effects are estimated by the Gibbs sampler. We show that fixed effects can be handled by a similar Gibbs sampler under a diffuse prior on the unobserved heterogeneity. The dummy variable approach for fixed effects is computationally intensive and has the out-of-memory risk, while the Gibbs sampler can reproduce the dummy variable estimator without creating dummy variables, and therefore avoids the memory burden. Compared to alternating projections and other classical approaches, our method simplifies both inference and estimation of the limited dependent variable models with fixed effects. The proposed method is applied to a real-world mortgage dataset for classification with three-way fixed effects on banks, regions, and loan purposes.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"185-194"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142206159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan 超低利率环境下的货币政策有效性：来自日本收益率曲线动态的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12635
Shigenori Shiratsuka
{"title":"Monetary Policy Effectiveness under the Ultra-Low Interest Rate Environment: Evidence from Yield Curve Dynamics in Japan","authors":"Shigenori Shiratsuka","doi":"10.1111/obes.12635","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12635","url":null,"abstract":"<p>I examine the effectiveness of monetary policy under the ultra-low interest rate environment in Japan through the lens of yield curve dynamics. To that end, I employ the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model with time-varying parameters, thereby computing indicators for tracing monetary easing effects. I show that the estimation performance of the yield curve models is sufficiently improved even under the ultra-low interest rate environment by extending the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model to allow a loading parameter to vary over time, in addition to three factors of yield curve dynamics: level, slope, and curvature. However, I also demonstrate that the identification of the level and loading parameters is critical in assessing monetary policy effects. I reveal that monetary easing effects under the Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) are produced by flattening the yield curve in the ultra-long-term maturity zone over 10 years, while monetary easing effects from maturities shorter than ten years remain almost unchanged. Monetary policy fails to produce sufficient monetary easing effects within the time frame of the standard macroeconomic stabilization policy, even with the full-fledged implementation of unconventional monetary policy measures under the ultra-low interest rate environment in Japan.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"98-121"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12635","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Economy 信贷供应冲击的实际影响：新兴经济体的证据
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12634
Aleksei Kiselev, Daria Kolesnik, Mikhail Mamonov, Anna Pestova
{"title":"The Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Economy","authors":"Aleksei Kiselev,&nbsp;Daria Kolesnik,&nbsp;Mikhail Mamonov,&nbsp;Anna Pestova","doi":"10.1111/obes.12634","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12634","url":null,"abstract":"<p>What role do credit supply shocks (CSS) play in macroeconomic dynamics in emerging economies? We exploit Russia's setting, including the 2014 Western sanctions, and show that a negative CSS normalized to 0.5 p.p. increase in the lending rate leads to a decrease of 2 p.p. in the output growth rate, 1.5 p.p. in the consumption growth rate and 5 p.p. in the investment growth rate within a quarter. The heterogeneity of the household and firm responses to CSS is driven by debt-to-income and leverage ratios, with indebted poorer households and larger firms being more sensitive to fluctuations in credit conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"64-97"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141770463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Firm Technology on Carbon Disclosure: The Critical Role of Stakeholder Pressure 企业技术对碳信息披露的影响：利益相关者压力的关键作用
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12633
Morakinyo O. Adetutu, Kayode A. Odusanya, Eleni Stathopoulou, Thomas G. Weyman-Jones
{"title":"The Impact of Firm Technology on Carbon Disclosure: The Critical Role of Stakeholder Pressure","authors":"Morakinyo O. Adetutu,&nbsp;Kayode A. Odusanya,&nbsp;Eleni Stathopoulou,&nbsp;Thomas G. Weyman-Jones","doi":"10.1111/obes.12633","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12633","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The demand for transparency about the microeconomic sources of environmental pollution has surged recently, causing carbon disclosure to rise to the top of the global climate change discourse. In this study, we empirically investigate how the environmental performance of firm production technologies shapes their voluntary carbon disclosure behaviour and how key stakeholders influence the performance-disclosure relationship. Using a panel of 1,547 firms across 24 countries covering 2006–20, we find that firms with the most efficient technologies for reducing emissions tend to disclose their carbon impact, especially when they face more stringent environmental regulations. These high-performing firms demonstrate a tendency for non-disclosure when faced with intense shareholder and environmental activist pushback against pollution. Our findings also highlight the existence of a profitability penalty for transparent high-efficiency firms relative to comparable firms that adopt strategic silence.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1438-1471"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12633","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141642161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chinese Import Competition and Prices: Evidence from India* 中国进口竞争与价格：印度的证据*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12632
Pavel Chakraborty, Michael Henry, Rahul Singh
{"title":"Chinese Import Competition and Prices: Evidence from India*","authors":"Pavel Chakraborty,&nbsp;Michael Henry,&nbsp;Rahul Singh","doi":"10.1111/obes.12632","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12632","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How do output prices respond to trade shocks? Using detailed firm-product level data on sales and quantity between 1996 and 2007, we study the causal effect of Chinese import competition on prices for Indian manufacturing firms. We find that Chinese import competition induces a significant decline in firm-product prices. A 1 percentage point increase in the Chinese import penetration ratio reduces firm-product prices by 3.5%. Further, this decline in prices is driven by a decline in markup, conditional on costs, as opposed to the pass through of cost savings to prices – providing evidence for <i>pro-competitive effect</i>. This decline in prices and markup is less pronounced for firms owned by Business Groups compared to stand-alone, privately owned firms. We also document a large decrease in marginal costs and an increase in markup with no significant effect on prices for firms on account of increased access to imported Chinese inputs.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1484-1510"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141548101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Home-Country Natural Disasters and Mental Health of Migrants* 母国自然灾害与移民的心理健康 *
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12631
Prashant Bharadwaj, Denise Doiron, Denzil G. Fiebig, Agne Suziedelyte
{"title":"Home-Country Natural Disasters and Mental Health of Migrants*","authors":"Prashant Bharadwaj,&nbsp;Denise Doiron,&nbsp;Denzil G. Fiebig,&nbsp;Agne Suziedelyte","doi":"10.1111/obes.12631","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12631","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While natural disasters cause loss of life and worsen health in the local areas they impact, the overall health impacts of these disasters can be more widespread. Using linked administrative and survey data (the 45 and Up Study) from Australia, a country where one in four residents was born overseas, we show that migrant mental health is significantly affected by home-country natural disasters. In the 3 months following a disaster, mental health related drug use and visits to mental health specialists increase by 7% and 34%, respectively. The effects persist for up to 12 months after the initial shock. To place these effects in context we provide suggestive comparisons to the impacts of home-country terrorist attacks and macroeconomic shocks on mental health, and also compare the effects on mental health to physical health conditions of migrants.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 2","pages":"287-309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changes in Inflation Dynamics in Korea: Global Factor, Country Factor and Their Propagation* 韩国通货膨胀动态的变化：全球因素、国家因素及其传播*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12630
Yun Jung Kim, Noh-Sun Kwark
{"title":"Changes in Inflation Dynamics in Korea: Global Factor, Country Factor and Their Propagation*","authors":"Yun Jung Kim,&nbsp;Noh-Sun Kwark","doi":"10.1111/obes.12630","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12630","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the influence of global and country factors on inflation movements in Korea using a multi-level factor model. Our results indicate that country factors showed a more pronounced alignment with inflation in Korea up to the mid-2000s, having particularly strong impacts around the Asian financial crisis. Beyond the mid-2000s, global factors played a more influential role in shaping inflation. This increased influence of global factors on inflation became particularly apparent during the notable inflationary surge following the COVID-19 pandemic. We construct structural models to identify global and country shocks and find that the effect of global shocks persists for a longer period, whereas the immediate impact of country shocks is more pronounced. Global shocks have a greater influence on producer price index and import price index inflation compared to consumer price index (CPI) or core CPI inflation. We further find that energy prices closely correlate with global factors, while exchange rates are highly correlated with country factors in Korea.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1373-1408"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12630","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumption Responses to Income Shocks through Lottery Winning: Evidence from Older Adults in Singapore
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12629
Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh
{"title":"Consumption Responses to Income Shocks through Lottery Winning: Evidence from Older Adults in Singapore","authors":"Seonghoon Kim,&nbsp;Kanghyock Koh","doi":"10.1111/obes.12629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12629","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study the effects of lottery winning on consumption spending using household survey data of older individuals aged 50–70 years in Singapore. We find strong consumption responses to a transitory income shock from lottery wins, and lottery winners spend about half of their prizes within 12 months of winning. We show that consumption responses are stronger among households with more binding liquidity constraints. The strong consumption response suggests that fiscal stimulus policies or other public transfer programmes could effectively boost consumption spending in the short run.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"1-25"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143116119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Should Developed Economies Manage International Capital Flows? An Empirical and Welfare Analysis* 发达经济体应否管理国际资本流动？实证与福利分析*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12628
Dennis Bonam, Gavin Goy, Emmanuel de Veirman
{"title":"Should Developed Economies Manage International Capital Flows? An Empirical and Welfare Analysis*","authors":"Dennis Bonam,&nbsp;Gavin Goy,&nbsp;Emmanuel de Veirman","doi":"10.1111/obes.12628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12628","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The literature on the effects of country risk premium shocks has largely focused on emerging market economies. We empirically show that in developed economies, risk premium shocks explain a non-trivial share of aggregate fluctuations and are key drivers of real activity during crises. Our empirical results and results from a two-country New Keynesian model indicate that an increase in the risk premium leads to a reduction in aggregate output under monetary union, but not so in countries with flexible exchange rates and independent monetary policy. Model simulations suggest that managing international capital flows enhances welfare in countries under monetary union.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 6","pages":"1511-1538"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12628","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142641766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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