Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States: New Data for Business Cycle Analyses

Abstract

To date, only annual information on economic activity is published for the 16 German states, thus, preventing the measurement of inter-annual business cycle movements. We calculate quarterly regional real GDP estimates for the period between 1995 to 2021, thereby improving the database for Germany. We use the new data for an in-depth business cycle analysis including the discussion of regional business cycle characteristics, the factors explaining these features, and the first state-level output gap estimates at the quarterly frequency. The analysis reveals large heterogeneities in both the duration and amplitudes of state-specific fluctuations as well as in the degrees of cyclical concordance. Especially the sectoral mix significantly explains the differences across the states' business cycle amplitudes. We further observe heterogeneous output gap profiles across the German states that also correlate with the regional sectoral mix. In 2021, the states with negative output gaps were those with a large share in service activities, which is the sector most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.