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Averaging Estimation for Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression 工具变量量化回归的平均估算
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12612
Xin Liu
{"title":"Averaging Estimation for Instrumental Variables Quantile Regression","authors":"Xin Liu","doi":"10.1111/obes.12612","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12612","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes two averaging estimation methods to improve the finite-sample efficiency of the instrumental variables quantile regression (IVQR) estimator. I propose using the usual quantile regression for averaging to take advantage of cases when endogeneity is not too strong. I also propose using two-stage least squares to take advantage of cases when heterogeneity is not too strong. The first averaging method is to apply a recent proposal for GMM averaging to the IVQR model based on this proposed intuition. My implementation involves many computational considerations and builds on recent developments in the quantile literature. The second averaging method is a new bootstrap model averaging method that directly averages among IVQR, quantile regression, and two-stage least squares estimators. More specifically, I find the optimal weights from bootstrapped samples and then apply the bootstrap-optimal weights to the original sample. The bootstrap method is simpler to compute and generally performs better in simulations, but uniform dominance results have not been formally proved. Simulation results demonstrate that in the multiple-regressors/instruments case, both the GMM averaging and bootstrap estimators have uniformly smaller risk than the IVQR estimator across data-generating processes with a variety of combinations of different endogeneity levels and heterogeneity levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1290-1312"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12612","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140830487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Occupational Mobility of Routine Workers 常规工人的职业流动性
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-24 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12610
Terhi Maczulskij
{"title":"Occupational Mobility of Routine Workers","authors":"Terhi Maczulskij","doi":"10.1111/obes.12610","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12610","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper demonstrates that the decline in routine occupations and concurrent rise in abstract occupations are largely due to workers changing jobs. The reduction in routine manual tasks is further explained by workers transitioning to unemployment or retirement. In contrast, the increase in non-routine manual occupations is primarily driven by the entry of young or unemployed individuals into the workforce. Plant closure information is used to identify involuntary job separations. These findings indicate that routine cognitive workers can adjust to smaller employment disruptions compared to routine manual workers among women. However, a contrasting pattern is observed for men.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1198-1229"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12610","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140800845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Semi-parametric Panel Data Model with Common Factors and Spatial Dependence 具有共同因素和空间依赖性的半参数面板数据模型
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12609
Alexandra Soberon, Antonio Musolesi, Juan M. Rodriguez-Poo
{"title":"A Semi-parametric Panel Data Model with Common Factors and Spatial Dependence","authors":"Alexandra Soberon,&nbsp;Antonio Musolesi,&nbsp;Juan M. Rodriguez-Poo","doi":"10.1111/obes.12609","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12609","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the analysis of the Griliches' knowledge capital production function, previous works pointed out the relevance of incorporating slope heterogeneity in the technological parameters, cross-sectional dependence arising simultaneously from common factors and spillovers, and possible nonlinear effects of relevant common observed variables. In order to solve the above problems, in this article we introduce a semi-parametric model in a partially linear form that copes simultaneously with all the previous specification issues. The asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are obtained and the theoretical findings are further supported for small samples via several Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"905-927"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12609","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140560135","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Self-employment Pay? The Role of Unemployment and Earnings Risk 自营职业是否赚钱？失业和收入风险的作用
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12608
Joaquín García-Cabo, Rocio Madera
{"title":"Does Self-employment Pay? The Role of Unemployment and Earnings Risk","authors":"Joaquín García-Cabo,&nbsp;Rocio Madera","doi":"10.1111/obes.12608","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12608","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper documents the role of unemployment and earnings risk in reconciling evidence in payoff differentials between self-employment and paid-employment. Using Spanish administrative data, we characterize the distribution and dynamics of earnings and document lower and less dispersed earnings in self-employment. We consider alternative hypotheses and highlight the role of lower unemployment risk in self-employment. We decompose earnings risk dynamics by estimating a life-cycle earnings process. Indeed, the self-employed experience lower returns but also face lower volatility and persistence of shocks throughout their life-cycle. Our results challenge the conventional view that self-employment necessarily entails higher risk and highlight that accounting for differences in labour earnings risk is important to reconcile the payoff differentials between self-employment and paid-employment.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1163-1197"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140560158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Balancing Study and Work: Heterogeneous Impact of the Bologna Reform on the Labour Market 兼顾学习与工作：博洛尼亚改革对劳动力市场的不同影响
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-24 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12607
Stanislav Avdeev
{"title":"Balancing Study and Work: Heterogeneous Impact of the Bologna Reform on the Labour Market","authors":"Stanislav Avdeev","doi":"10.1111/obes.12607","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12607","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Bologna reform, the largest European education reform, was implemented in Russia in 2011. The reform shortened the duration of some undergraduate programmes by 1 year and compressed their curricula. Using a difference-in-differences design, I find that the reform had no short- or medium-term adverse effects on employment. However, I find that null average effects on wages mask considerable heterogeneity. I find that female students with high relative returns worked less during their studies, invested in their human capital, and secured stable wages. In contrast, male students with low relative returns underinvested in human capital and experienced a decline in wages.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"87 1","pages":"252-286"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12607","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140298734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty 英国脱欧：贸易政策不确定性导致的贸易转移
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12606
Eduardo Gutiérrez, Aitor Lacuesta, César Martín-Machuca
{"title":"Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty","authors":"Eduardo Gutiérrez,&nbsp;Aitor Lacuesta,&nbsp;César Martín-Machuca","doi":"10.1111/obes.12606","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12606","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper quantifies how much of the reduction in Spanish trade flows with the UK after the 2016 Brexit referendum was diverted to other markets. To obtain reliable estimates of trade diversion we regress firm-level changes in flows with all markets except the UK on changes in flows with the UK. In order to solve the positive correlation of trade flows between different markets we use the Brexit referendum as part of our instrumental variable. We then treat firms as units subjected to differential uncertainty shocks according to their initial patterns of sector and trade specialization. In particular, the referendum date is interacted with potential sectoral tariffs and pre-referendum firm-level exposure to the UK. The paper shows a close to full trade diversion for exports, mostly to other European countries, for those firms more exposed to that particular market (above 10%) and a heterogeneous response on the part of Spanish firms with low exposure (below 10%). Trade diversion for imports is weaker but the results are less robust. Given a particular share of exposure to the UK market, trade diversion appears to be more limited for big companies in comparison to small companies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1058-1088"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140149926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting the Phillips Curve: The Empirical Relationship Yet to be Validated* 重温菲利普斯曲线：有待验证的经验关系*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12605
Hoang-Phuong Do, Aris Spanos
{"title":"Revisiting the Phillips Curve: The Empirical Relationship Yet to be Validated*","authors":"Hoang-Phuong Do,&nbsp;Aris Spanos","doi":"10.1111/obes.12605","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12605","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Phillips curve began life in 1958 as a simple curve-fitted relationship between the rates of wage inflation and unemployment and went on to play a crucial role in the broader development of macroeconomics, giving rise to several controversies about its interpretation and role in policy-making. Recently, the traditional narrative about its theoretical underpinnings has been called into question as a sequence of ‘stories’ to provide support for particular theoretical perspectives on macroeconomics. The primary aim of this paper is to challenge the conventional wisdom relating to the Phillips curve being an attested empirical relationship, by showing that the empirical evidence of the most influential papers that helped to frame the traditional narrative is untrustworthy, in the sense that the probabilistic assumptions invoked by their inferences are invalid. That is, not only the traditional theory-driven narrative is misleading, but the empirical evidence used to corroborate it is untrustworthy.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"761-793"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140150140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Should the Fiscal Authority Avoid Implementation Lag? 财政管理局是否应避免执行滞后？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-03 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12604
Masataka Eguchi, Hidekazu Niwa, Takayuki Tsuruga
{"title":"Should the Fiscal Authority Avoid Implementation Lag?","authors":"Masataka Eguchi,&nbsp;Hidekazu Niwa,&nbsp;Takayuki Tsuruga","doi":"10.1111/obes.12604","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12604","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Implementation lags are a concern of policymakers as they may reduce the efficacy of fiscal policy. Using a standard New Keynesian model with an effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, we compare the impacts of fiscal stimulus on output across various lengths of implementation lag. We show that despite concerns among policymakers, implementation lags may enhance the efficacy of government purchases on output when the economy is caught in a liquidity trap.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"856-870"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12604","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140037394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multivariate Trend-Cycle-Seasonal Decompositions with Correlated Innovations* 具有相关创新的多变量趋势-周期-季节分解 *
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-25 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12602
Jing Tian, Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Denise R. Osborn
{"title":"Multivariate Trend-Cycle-Seasonal Decompositions with Correlated Innovations*","authors":"Jing Tian,&nbsp;Jan P.A.M. Jacobs,&nbsp;Denise R. Osborn","doi":"10.1111/obes.12602","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12602","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Multivariate analysis can help to focus on important phenomena, including trend and cyclical movements, but any economic information in seasonality is typically ignored. The present paper aims to more fully exploit time series information through a multivariate unobserved component model for quarterly data that exhibits seasonality together with cross-variable component correlations. We show that economic restrictions, including common trends, common cycles and common seasonals can aid identification. The approach is illustrated using Italian GDP and consumption data.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1260-1289"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12602","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139967807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public Healthcare Financing during Counterinsurgency Efforts: Evidence from Colombia* 戡乱期间的公共医疗融资：哥伦比亚的证据*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12603
Samuel Lordemus, Noemi Kreif, Rodrigo Moreno-Serra
{"title":"Public Healthcare Financing during Counterinsurgency Efforts: Evidence from Colombia*","authors":"Samuel Lordemus,&nbsp;Noemi Kreif,&nbsp;Rodrigo Moreno-Serra","doi":"10.1111/obes.12603","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12603","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How do government counterinsurgency efforts affect local public health financing during civil conflicts? We investigate this question in the context of the protracted conflict in Colombia. Using data on antinarcotics operations and health transfers from the central government to municipal governments, we employ both panel estimations and an instrumental variable to address concerns of endogeneity. We first show evidence of a government discretionary power over the allocation of health transfers. We do not find evidence that counterinsurgency operations causally affect health transfers to municipalities. Our results rule out political alignment between mayors and the national governing party as an intermediary factor that could influence the flow of fiscal transfers in municipalities exposed to the conflict.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1230-1259"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12603","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139951509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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