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Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty 英国脱欧：贸易政策不确定性导致的贸易转移
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12606
Eduardo Gutiérrez, Aitor Lacuesta, César Martín-Machuca
{"title":"Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty","authors":"Eduardo Gutiérrez,&nbsp;Aitor Lacuesta,&nbsp;César Martín-Machuca","doi":"10.1111/obes.12606","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12606","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The paper quantifies how much of the reduction in Spanish trade flows with the UK after the 2016 Brexit referendum was diverted to other markets. To obtain reliable estimates of trade diversion we regress firm-level changes in flows with all markets except the UK on changes in flows with the UK. In order to solve the positive correlation of trade flows between different markets we use the Brexit referendum as part of our instrumental variable. We then treat firms as units subjected to differential uncertainty shocks according to their initial patterns of sector and trade specialization. In particular, the referendum date is interacted with potential sectoral tariffs and pre-referendum firm-level exposure to the UK. The paper shows a close to full trade diversion for exports, mostly to other European countries, for those firms more exposed to that particular market (above 10%) and a heterogeneous response on the part of Spanish firms with low exposure (below 10%). Trade diversion for imports is weaker but the results are less robust. Given a particular share of exposure to the UK market, trade diversion appears to be more limited for big companies in comparison to small companies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1058-1088"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140149926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revisiting the Phillips Curve: The Empirical Relationship Yet to be Validated* 重温菲利普斯曲线：有待验证的经验关系*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12605
Hoang-Phuong Do, Aris Spanos
{"title":"Revisiting the Phillips Curve: The Empirical Relationship Yet to be Validated*","authors":"Hoang-Phuong Do,&nbsp;Aris Spanos","doi":"10.1111/obes.12605","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12605","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Phillips curve began life in 1958 as a simple curve-fitted relationship between the rates of wage inflation and unemployment and went on to play a crucial role in the broader development of macroeconomics, giving rise to several controversies about its interpretation and role in policy-making. Recently, the traditional narrative about its theoretical underpinnings has been called into question as a sequence of ‘stories’ to provide support for particular theoretical perspectives on macroeconomics. The primary aim of this paper is to challenge the conventional wisdom relating to the Phillips curve being an attested empirical relationship, by showing that the empirical evidence of the most influential papers that helped to frame the traditional narrative is untrustworthy, in the sense that the probabilistic assumptions invoked by their inferences are invalid. That is, not only the traditional theory-driven narrative is misleading, but the empirical evidence used to corroborate it is untrustworthy.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"761-793"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140150140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Should the Fiscal Authority Avoid Implementation Lag? 财政管理局是否应避免执行滞后？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-03-03 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12604
Masataka Eguchi, Hidekazu Niwa, Takayuki Tsuruga
{"title":"Should the Fiscal Authority Avoid Implementation Lag?","authors":"Masataka Eguchi,&nbsp;Hidekazu Niwa,&nbsp;Takayuki Tsuruga","doi":"10.1111/obes.12604","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12604","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Implementation lags are a concern of policymakers as they may reduce the efficacy of fiscal policy. Using a standard New Keynesian model with an effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate, we compare the impacts of fiscal stimulus on output across various lengths of implementation lag. We show that despite concerns among policymakers, implementation lags may enhance the efficacy of government purchases on output when the economy is caught in a liquidity trap.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"856-870"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12604","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140037394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multivariate Trend-Cycle-Seasonal Decompositions with Correlated Innovations* 具有相关创新的多变量趋势-周期-季节分解 *
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-25 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12602
Jing Tian, Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Denise R. Osborn
{"title":"Multivariate Trend-Cycle-Seasonal Decompositions with Correlated Innovations*","authors":"Jing Tian,&nbsp;Jan P.A.M. Jacobs,&nbsp;Denise R. Osborn","doi":"10.1111/obes.12602","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12602","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Multivariate analysis can help to focus on important phenomena, including trend and cyclical movements, but any economic information in seasonality is typically ignored. The present paper aims to more fully exploit time series information through a multivariate unobserved component model for quarterly data that exhibits seasonality together with cross-variable component correlations. We show that economic restrictions, including common trends, common cycles and common seasonals can aid identification. The approach is illustrated using Italian GDP and consumption data.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1260-1289"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12602","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139967807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public Healthcare Financing during Counterinsurgency Efforts: Evidence from Colombia* 戡乱期间的公共医疗融资：哥伦比亚的证据*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12603
Samuel Lordemus, Noemi Kreif, Rodrigo Moreno-Serra
{"title":"Public Healthcare Financing during Counterinsurgency Efforts: Evidence from Colombia*","authors":"Samuel Lordemus,&nbsp;Noemi Kreif,&nbsp;Rodrigo Moreno-Serra","doi":"10.1111/obes.12603","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12603","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How do government counterinsurgency efforts affect local public health financing during civil conflicts? We investigate this question in the context of the protracted conflict in Colombia. Using data on antinarcotics operations and health transfers from the central government to municipal governments, we employ both panel estimations and an instrumental variable to address concerns of endogeneity. We first show evidence of a government discretionary power over the allocation of health transfers. We do not find evidence that counterinsurgency operations causally affect health transfers to municipalities. Our results rule out political alignment between mayors and the national governing party as an intermediary factor that could influence the flow of fiscal transfers in municipalities exposed to the conflict.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1230-1259"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12603","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139951509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What Drives House Prices in Europe? 是什么推动了欧洲的房价？
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-18 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12601
Federica Ciocchetta, Elisa Guglielminetti, Alessandro Mistretta
{"title":"What Drives House Prices in Europe?","authors":"Federica Ciocchetta,&nbsp;Elisa Guglielminetti,&nbsp;Alessandro Mistretta","doi":"10.1111/obes.12601","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12601","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Boom-and-bust cycles in the housing market pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability, thus calling for a timely assessment of imbalances. This work sheds light on the drivers of house price dynamics in some euro area economies, investigating the risks of overheating. We show that an Error-Correction-Model (ECM) featuring a long-run relationship between house prices and income and short-run effects of interest rates and housing supply fits the data well in most cases. We then propose a novel model-based misalignment indicator and find that extrapolative house price expectations play an important role in the build-up of speculative bubbles.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1089-1121"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139918436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of Grandmothers' Proximity on Mothers' Labour Force Participation* 祖母就近对母亲劳动力参与的影响*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12600
Pelin Akyol, Zeynep Yılmaz
{"title":"Effects of Grandmothers' Proximity on Mothers' Labour Force Participation*","authors":"Pelin Akyol,&nbsp;Zeynep Yılmaz","doi":"10.1111/obes.12600","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12600","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the causal effects of grandmothers' geographical proximity on labour supply decisions of married women with young children by leveraging a novel data set from Turkey. We deal with the reverse causality and endogeneity problems arising from mothers' and grandmothers' joint location and labour supply decisions by implementing a two-stage least squares estimation method using the number of alive grandmothers as an instrument. We argue that grandmothers' proximity can increase mothers' labour supply through their free and flexible childcare services. On the other hand, geographically close grandmothers can reduce mothers' labour supply by imposing the traditional gender norms prevalent in Turkey or requiring them to take on elderly caregiving duties. The overall effect depends on the relative size of these opposing factors. Our findings suggest that living in the same neighbourhood as grandmothers increases the probability of labour force participation and the employment rates of women with young children by 18.2 ppt and 16.4 ppt, respectively. These results are mostly driven by the non-village sample. The ‘traditional gender norm’ channel explains the insignificant impact of grandmothers' proximity on the labour market outcomes of mothers who have been raised in villages.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 5","pages":"1122-1162"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139758374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Paper of How: Estimating Treatment Effects Using the Front-Door Criterion* 如何的论文：使用前门标准估算治疗效果*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12598
Marc F. Bellemare, Jeffrey R. Bloem, Noah Wexler
{"title":"The Paper of How: Estimating Treatment Effects Using the Front-Door Criterion*","authors":"Marc F. Bellemare,&nbsp;Jeffrey R. Bloem,&nbsp;Noah Wexler","doi":"10.1111/obes.12598","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12598","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We illustrate the use of Pearl's (1995) front-door criterion with observational data with an application in which the assumptions for point identification hold. For identification, the front-door criterion leverages exogenous mediator variables on the causal path. After a preliminary discussion of the identification assumptions behind and the estimation framework used for the front-door criterion, we present an empirical application. In our application, we look at the effect of deciding to share an Uber or Lyft ride on tipping by exploiting the algorithm-driven exogenous variation in whether one actually shares a ride conditional on authorizing sharing, the full fare paid, and origin–destination fixed effects interacted with two-hour interval fixed effects. We find that most of the observed negative relationship between choosing to share a ride and tipping is driven by customer selection into sharing rather than by sharing itself. In the Appendix, we explore the consequences of violating the identification assumptions for the front-door criterion.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"951-993"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12598","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139657236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Spatial Sample Selection Model* 空间样本选择模型*
IF 1.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-01-27 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12599
Yong Bao, Gucheng Li, Xiaotian Liu
{"title":"A Spatial Sample Selection Model*","authors":"Yong Bao,&nbsp;Gucheng Li,&nbsp;Xiaotian Liu","doi":"10.1111/obes.12599","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12599","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper presents a sample selection model with spatial correlation in the selection and outcome variables and studies the maximum likelihood method of estimation. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator are established by the spatial near-epoch dependent properties of the variables. Monte Carlo simulations show its good finite-sample performance. This model is used to examine the impact of climate change on cereal yields in Southeast Asia and projects that climate change may cause a reduction in cereal yields by <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>7</mn>\u0000 <mo>%</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ 7% $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>31</mn>\u0000 <mo>%</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ 31% $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) in the minimum-change (maximum-change) scenario.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 4","pages":"928-950"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139578201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does Stress Shorten Your Life? Evidence from Parental Bereavement 压力会缩短寿命吗？父母丧亲的证据
IF 2.5 3区 经济学
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/obes.12596
Bernhard Schmidpeter
{"title":"Does Stress Shorten Your Life? Evidence from Parental Bereavement","authors":"Bernhard Schmidpeter","doi":"10.1111/obes.12596","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12596","url":null,"abstract":"<p>I study the impact of stress resulting from the unexpected death of a child on parents' mortality risk. Using a flexible approach and allowing for time-varying treatment effects, I find no impact on the short-run mortality risk. However, I estimate a substantial increase in the long-run, particularly among men. I provide evidence that this group likely resorts to risky health behaviours such as heavy smoking and drinking as coping mechanisms. Assessing the possible protective effects of mental health support, I find evidence that it lowers the mortality risk for women. Mental health support has a smaller impact for men. I show that this is likely due to underutilization by those who would benefit the most. Finally, I present robustness of my results to specific departure from my identifying assumptions.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 3","pages":"485-518"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12596","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139481075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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