What Drives House Prices in Europe?

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-02-18 DOI:10.1111/obes.12601

Federica Ciocchetta, Elisa Guglielminetti, Alessandro Mistretta

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Boom-and-bust cycles in the housing market pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability, thus calling for a timely assessment of imbalances. This work sheds light on the drivers of house price dynamics in some euro area economies, investigating the risks of overheating. We show that an Error-Correction-Model (ECM) featuring a long-run relationship between house prices and income and short-run effects of interest rates and housing supply fits the data well in most cases. We then propose a novel model-based misalignment indicator and find that extrapolative house price expectations play an important role in the build-up of speculative bubbles.

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是什么推动了欧洲的房价？

房地产市场的繁荣与萧条循环对宏观经济和金融稳定构成威胁，因此需要及时评估失衡问题。这项研究揭示了欧元区一些经济体房价动态的驱动因素，调查了过热的风险。我们的研究表明，以房价和收入之间的长期关系以及利率和住房供应的短期影响为特征的误差修正模型（ECM）在大多数情况下都能很好地匹配数据。然后，我们提出了一个新颖的基于模型的错位指标，并发现外推的房价预期在投机泡沫的形成过程中发挥了重要作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.