平衡增长路径可能随时间变化时的经济增长分析

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI:10.1111/obes.12638

Andrew Mountford

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引用次数: 0

摘要

一个经济体人均收入增长路径的决定因素可能随时间而变化。在本文中，我们将非观测成分分析应用于经济增长动态的标准面板模型，从而使一个经济体的长期人均相对收入可以在任何时间点发生变化。我们将该模型应用于 1929-2021 年美国各州的数据和 1970-2019 年世界经济的数据。在这两个数据集中，一个经济体的初始人均相对收入可以很好地预测其长期人均相对收入。相对贫穷的经济体平均而言仍然相对贫穷。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Economic Growth Analysis When Balanced Growth Paths May Be Time Varying

The determinants of an economy's growth path for income per head may vary over time. In this paper, we apply unobserved components analysis to an otherwise standard panel model of economic growth dynamics so that an economy's long‐run relative income per head can change at any point of time. We apply this model to data for US states for 1929–2021 and the world economy for 1970–2019. In both datasets an economy's initial relative income per head is a good predictor of its long‐run relative income per head. Relatively poor economies on average remain relatively poor.

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来源期刊

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 管理科学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Whilst the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics publishes papers in all areas of applied economics, emphasis is placed on the practical importance, theoretical interest and policy-relevance of their substantive results, as well as on the methodology and technical competence of the research. Contributions on the topical issues of economic policy and the testing of currently controversial economic theories are encouraged, as well as more empirical research on both developed and developing countries.