Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans最新文献

{"title":"Spatially Resolved Salt Intrusion Mechanisms in a Tidal Estuary and the Impact of Channel Deepening","authors":"Karoline Rummel,&nbsp;Ulf Gräwe,&nbsp;Knut Klingbeil,&nbsp;Pia Kolb,&nbsp;Xiangyu Li,&nbsp;Lloyd Reese,&nbsp;Hans Burchard","doi":"10.1029/2024JC022073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022073","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The unique ecosystem of estuaries as well as their social and economic usage such as freshwater abstraction are highly dependent on local salinity. Shifts in salt intrusion can have severe consequences. The salinity dynamics are influenced by several natural factors, especially the river discharge and the tides but also by human activities such as channel deepening. A thorough understanding of salt transport mechanisms and their response to changing conditions is essential for assessing the effects of both natural variability and human activities on salt intrusion. This study applies a detailed salt transport decomposition method to a high-resolution numerical model of the North German Weser River Estuary. The analysis of the cross-channel integrated transport showed an alternating dominance of two up-estuary salt transport mechanisms: the subtidal shear transport, driven by estuarine circulation and the tidally correlated depth-averaged transport, such as tidal pumping. A novel decomposition method allowing for two-dimensional maps of salt transport is developed and implemented here to understand the local topographical impacts on the salt transport. Our results highlight that the cross-sectionally integrated transport can underestimate the strength of the resolved transport in specific areas, as opposing flows often occur between the channel and adjacent shoals. Furthermore, we investigate a potential future scenario involving channel deepening, finding that it increases subtidal shear transport, particularly in dredged areas. These findings offer new insights into the spatial complexity of salt dynamics and the impact of anthropogenic changes on estuarine environments.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC022073","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144299746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics and Temporal Variability of the North Atlantic Current in the Iceland Basin (2014–2022)","authors":"Tiago S. Dotto,&nbsp;N. Penny Holliday,&nbsp;Neil Fraser,&nbsp;Ben Moat,&nbsp;Yvonne Firing,&nbsp;Kristin Burmeister,&nbsp;Darren Rayner,&nbsp;Stuart Cunningham,&nbsp;Emma Worthington,&nbsp;William E. Johns","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021836","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021836","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The North Atlantic Current (NAC) is a major source of heat toward the subpolar gyre and northern seas. However, its variability and drivers are not well understood. Here, we evaluated 8 years of continuous daily measurements as part of the international program Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program to investigate the NAC in the Iceland Basin. We found that the NAC volume and freshwater anomaly transport and heat content (HC) were highly variable with significant variability at timescales of 16–120 days to annual. Intraseasonal to short interannual variability was associated with mesoscale and intermittent mesoscale features abundant in the region. Composites analysis revealed that strong NAC periods were associated with less eddy kinetic energy in the Iceland Basin, which was consistent with the presence of frontal-like structures instead of eddy-like structures. On longer timescales, the westward migration of the eastern boundary of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) gyre favors a stronger NAC volume transport and HC in the region. Stronger zonal wind stress triggers a fast response that piles water up between the SPNA and subtropical gyres, which increases the sea surface height gradient and drives the acceleration of the NAC. The strengthening of the NAC increases the heat and salt transport northward. During our study period, both heat and salt increased across the moorings. These observations are important for understanding the heat and freshwater variability in the SPNA, which ultimately impacts the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC021836","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144291903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Patterns of Ocean Acidification Emergence in the Hawaiian Islands Using Dynamically Downscaled Projections","authors":"L. Hošeková,&nbsp;T. Friedrich,&nbsp;B. S. Powell,&nbsp;C. Sabine","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021903","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021903","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study presents the first dynamically downscaled projections of ocean acidification (OA) for the Main Hawaiian Islands using coupled Regional Ocean Modeling System and Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry, and Lower Trophics models integrated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs from the Community Earth System Model 2. We analyze three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0) and introduce a climate novelty metric to assess the extent to which future OA conditions exceed historical variability by comparing the magnitude of projected changes to past variability. Our results indicate unprecedented levels of OA within the next three decades across all scenarios, with aragonite saturation state (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>Ω</mi>\u0000 <mi>A</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${{Omega }}_{A}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>), pH, and substrate-to-inhibitor ratio (bicarbonate to free hydrogen ions [HCO₃⁻]/[H⁺]) projected to decline significantly. By 2100, under SSP3-7.0, <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>Ω</mi>\u0000 <mi>A</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${{Omega }}_{A}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> novelty could exceed reference variability by a factor of 12. Spatial analysis reveals heterogeneous OA impacts, with windward coastlines consistently exhibiting higher novelty levels. Importantly, we find contrasting spatial patterns of OA indices due to varying sensitivities to temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon, resulting in higher <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>Ω</mi>\u0000 <mi>A</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${{Omega }}_{A}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> novelty in northern areas and higher pH and substrate-to-inhibitor ratio novelty in southern regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144281488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal Variability Observed in the Gulf Stream East of Cape Hatteras","authors":"A. Silver,&nbsp;A. Gangopadhyay,&nbsp;M. Andres,&nbsp;G. G. Gawarkiewicz","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021543","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Gulf Stream system is dominated by strong mesoscale variability that can obscure any seasonal signals in Gulf Stream strength. Nevertheless, seasonal variability of the Gulf Stream is important for local weather and climate and can influence amplification of hurricane intensity and storm tracks. We investigate seasonal variability of the speed of the Gulf Stream after it detaches from Cape Hatteras, using high-resolution along-track altimeter data. The altimeter data show a significant seasonal cycle in the Gulf Stream axis speed, peaking in summer. The seasonal variability in the Gulf Stream axis velocity is related to changes in the local wind stress curl and changes in the density difference across the Gulf Stream. Wind forcing affects the Gulf Stream year-round, while changes in the density difference have the largest impact in summer. Overall, changes in the wind stress curl and upper ocean density difference across the Gulf Stream can explain roughly 40% of the seasonal Gulf Stream speed variability in summer.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144281519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Differential Nonconservative Behaviors of Dissolved Black Carbon Along a Major River-Estuary-Shelf Continuum","authors":"Yin Fang,&nbsp;Guopei Huang,&nbsp;Dongyan Liu,&nbsp;Mengmeng Wu,&nbsp;Yujue Wang,&nbsp;Jing He,&nbsp;Chongtai Chen,&nbsp;Tian Lin,&nbsp;Shouye Yang,&nbsp;Yingjun Chen","doi":"10.1029/2025JC022432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022432","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Existing dual-carbon isotopic evidence suggests the nonconservative behaviors of dissolved black carbon (DBC) during its river-to-open ocean transport. Estuaries and shelves, characterized by highly dynamic and complex hydrological conditions, serve as pivotal transitional zones linking rivers and open ocean ecosystems, making them potential hotspots for DBC transfer and transformation. However, the nonconservative behaviors of DBC in the estuarine-shelf regimes remain poorly understood. In this study, we examined and elucidated the possible nonconservative behaviors of DBC and their underlying mechanisms along the globally representative major river Changjiang-Estuary-Shelf Continuum. Our findings reveal that the summertime DBC profiles were primarily shaped by the physical mixing between Changjiang Diluted Water and Taiwan Warm Current, which exhibited distinct DBC concentrations and compositions (as indicated by the molecular markers ratios of B6CA/B5CA). Despite this predominant control, differential nonconservative behaviors of DBC were found in subregions of the continuum. Specifically, DBC removal in the Changjiang River Channel was due to sorption onto resuspended sediments, while within the Changjiang River Estuary, it resulted from a combination of photoaging and Ca²⁺ bridging effects. In contrast, DBC addition in the East China Sea Shelf was driven by benthic diffusion, which represents an underappreciated yet significant DBC source to the coastal waters. Insights into the nonconservative behaviors of DBC within such a major river-estuary-shelf continuum enable a more robust assessment of the crucial roles of the relatively slow-cycling DBC component as a negative feedback mechanism in the global carbon cycle.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144273510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characteristic Velocity and Timescales of Nonphase-Locked Internal Tides in a Mesoscale Eddy Field","authors":"Matthew D. Rayson,&nbsp;Lachlan Astfalck,&nbsp;Aurelien L. S. Ponte,&nbsp;Andrew P. Zulberti,&nbsp;Nicole L. Jones","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021789","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present a new parametric auto-covariance kernel function for characterizing properties of the mesoscale eddy field and the nonphase-locked internal tide from ocean time series records. We demonstrate that the model captures the important spectral properties, namely the spectral roll-off of the mesoscale continuum and the broad spectral “cusps” centered around the tidal forcing frequencies. The spectral cusp model has three main parameters that characterize the nonphase-locked internal tide: the amplitude, a decorrelation timescale, and a shape parameter that captures the rate at which the cusp rolls away. Estimation of the third shape parameter is novel. We argue that an integral timescale is the most suitable characteristic timescale and show how it relates to the parametric decorrelation timescale. A key innovation of this work is that we estimate the parameters in the frequency domain using the debiased Whittle likelihood. We apply our spectral parameter estimation technique to outputs from idealized and realistic numerical experiments of internal tides propagating through a mesoscale eddy field. We demonstrate that the nonphase-locked internal tide integral timescale was 2–7 d, and is influenced by the Rossby number of the mesoscale flow field, which is linked to the eddy timescale, and is relatively constant in space. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the internal tide integral timescale is set by the global properties of the eddy field because internal waves have memory of past interactions. The intended use of our parametric kernel functions are for generating probabilistic predictions of ocean time series.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC021789","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144273408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extensive and Prolonged Cooling Effects of Tropical Storm Pabuk on the Southern South China Sea","authors":"Tana,&nbsp;Yue Fang,&nbsp;Bin Xiao,&nbsp;Baochao Liu,&nbsp;Yanliang Liu,&nbsp;Huiwu Wang,&nbsp;Azizan Abu Samah,&nbsp;Mohd Fadzil Mohd Akhir,&nbsp;Wee Cheah,&nbsp;Qinglei Su,&nbsp;Chao Li,&nbsp;Chunlin Ning","doi":"10.1029/2024JC022109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022109","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In January 2019, Tropical Storm Pabuk traversed the southern South China Sea, inducing significant upper-ocean cooling with a maximum temperature drop of 3.8°C lasting over three weeks. As the storm passed directly over the Bailong marine meteorological buoy (5.843°N, 104.208°E), high-frequency oceanic and atmospheric observations captured its immediate impact, providing valuable insights into air-sea interactions during extreme weather events. Analysis of buoy data and FIO-COM simulations reveals that Pabuk triggered a rapid sea surface temperature (SST) decline, initially driven by wind-driven vertical mixing and heat flux loss, followed by prolonged cooling sustained by cold advection. The latter was primarily controlled by changes in the Vietnam Coastal Current (VCC), whose intensity and structure were significantly altered by the storm. Additionally, near-inertial oscillations (NIOs) enhanced subsurface mixing contributing to the persistence of cooling, whereas winter monsoon winds further influenced post-storm SST evolution. The cooling response exhibited strong spatial variability: in deep offshore regions, vertical mixing dominated, entraining colder subsurface waters into the mixed layer; along the Vietnam coastal shelf, cold advection played a leading role; in shallow waters, heat flux loss initiated cooling with residual cold advection and NIO-driven subsurface mixing extending SST anomalies. These findings underscore the heightened sensitivity of shelf seas to tropical storms, where coastal currents, wind-driven mixing, and bathymetric constraints critically influence SST evolution. A more accurate representation of these localized processes in oceanographic and climate models is essential for improving storm impact assessments and upper-ocean thermal predictions.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC022109","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144273511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observations of Breaking Wave Dissipation and Their Relationship to Atmosphere-Ocean Energy Transfer","authors":"L. Hogan,&nbsp;C. J. Zappa,&nbsp;A. Cifuentes-Lorenzen,&nbsp;J. B. Edson,&nbsp;J. O’Donnell,&nbsp;D. S. Ullman","doi":"10.1029/2024JC022130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022130","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Energy is transferred from the atmosphere to the ocean primarily through ocean surface waves, and the majority is dissipated locally in the near-surface ocean. Observations of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the upper ocean have shown dissipation rates exceeding law-of-the-wall theory by an order of magnitude. The excess near-surface ocean TKE dissipation rate is thought to be driven primarily by wave breaking, which limits wave growth and transfers energy from the surface wave field to the wave-affected layer of the ocean. Here, the statistical properties of breaking wave dynamics in a coastal area are extracted from visible imagery and used to estimate TKE dissipation rates due to breaking waves. The statistical properties of whitecap dynamics are quantified with Λ(c), a distribution of total whitecap crest length per unit area as a function of crest speed, and used to compute energy dissipation by breaking waves, S_ds. S_ds approximately balances elevated subsurface dissipation in young seas but accounts for only a fraction of subsurface dissipation in older seas. The wind energy input is estimated from wave spectra from polarimetric imagery and laser altimetry. S_ds balances the wind energy input except under high winds. Λ(c)-derived estimates of TKE dissipation rates by breaking waves compare well with the atmospheric deficit in TKE dissipation, a measure of energy input to the wave field (Cifuentes-Lorenzen et al., 2024). These results tie the observed atmospheric dissipation deficit and enhancement in subsurface TKE dissipation to wave driven energy transport, constraining the TKE dissipation budget near the air-sea interface.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC022130","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144264628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Role of the Indian Ocean Wind-Driven Dynamics in the Indonesian Throughflow Variability","authors":"Rui Li,&nbsp;Yuanlong Li,&nbsp;Yilong Lyu,&nbsp;Janet Sprintall,&nbsp;Fan Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025JC022503","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022503","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) regulates heat and freshwater distributions over the Indo-Pacific Oceans and fundamentally affects the climate. The past decade has witnessed acute interannual variations in the volume transport within the Makassar Strait—the main ITF inflow passage—such as a decrease of ∼4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹) in 2015–2016 boreal winter and an enhancement of ∼3 Sv in 2017 autumn, relative to a mean transport of ∼12 Sv. The Pacific Ocean dynamics, dictated largely by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cannot fully explain these variations, and a quantitative understanding of the Indian Ocean (IO) dynamics involved in the ITF transport variability remains lacking. Here, by performing regional forcing experiments with a 0.1° ocean general circulation model, we reveal that the wind-driven IO dynamics have operated as a buffering effect for ∼56% of the time and a reinforcing effect for ∼44% of the time during the past decade. Notably, the IO dynamics buffered the weakened ITF by ∼2 Sv in 2015–2016 winter and contributed to the enhanced ITF by ∼0.5 Sv in 2017 autumn. The buffering effect of IO winds is commonly seen during strong ENSO events, while the reinforcing effect arises from Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events independent of ENSO. Our study aids in the prediction of the ITF strength under the amplifying ENSO and IOD variabilities expected in a warming climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144264626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diagnosing Regional Sea Level Change Over the Altimeter Era","authors":"Kristopher B. Karnauskas,&nbsp;R. Steven Nerem,&nbsp;John T. Fasullo,&nbsp;Ashley Bellas-Manley,&nbsp;Philip R. Thompson,&nbsp;Sloan Coats,&nbsp;Don P. Chambers,&nbsp;Benjamin D. Hamlington","doi":"10.1029/2024JC022100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022100","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since 1993, satellite altimeters have been mapping sea level changes globally, revealing both the global mean rate and detailed patterns of regional variations. The global mean rate is well studied, closely linked to global energy and water cycles, while regional patterns are influenced by a complex mix of internal climate dynamics and external factors like greenhouse gases and aerosols. Yet, a synthesis of these regional patterns using a comprehensive diagnostic approach has been lacking. Our research addresses this gap by integrating oceanic and atmospheric observations with large ensembles of state-of-the-art global climate models. This approach sheds new light upon the mechanisms behind basin-scale sea level patterns worldwide. A key finding is the dominant influence of wind forcing, particularly Ekman and Sverdrup dynamics, in shaping sea level changes from the tropics to higher latitudes. We find that the pattern of sea level rise since 1993 is primarily driven by wind-induced changes in ocean circulation, which can affect sea surface height through ocean mass and heat distribution. Interestingly, these wind-driven changes are not just products of internal climate variability; most of the observed patterns are recovered by global climate model projections driven by historical anthropogenic forcings, and single-forcing experiments provide further insight into which forcings are responsible for various features in the satellite altimetry record. Understanding the drivers of regional sea level rise, including differentiating anthropogenic signals from natural variability, is essential for effectively adapting to climate change impacts on global infrastructure and society.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144244716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}