Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans最新文献

{"title":"Upwelling Variability in the Western South China Sea Associated With Global Climate Change","authors":"Yineng Li,&nbsp;Shiqiu Peng,&nbsp;Enrique N. Curchitser","doi":"10.1029/2024JC022172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022172","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, the changes in interannual variability of upwelling in the Western South China Sea (SCS) from 1958 to 2015 and their relationships with climate variability are investigated using reanalysis data and numerical simulations. Our results show that the interannual variability of upwelling in the three main upwelling regions, that is, the East Coast of Vietnam (VE), Southwest of Hainan Island (HNW), and East of Hainan Island (HNE), has significantly changed after the 1990s, influenced by the changes in the variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Specifically, the variance of upwelling in VE and HNW has increased by over 20%, while that of HNE has decreased by 30% after the 1990s. The effects of ENSO and IOD on the upwelling in VE and HNW have significantly enhanced during both positive and negative phases after the 1990s, while their effects on upwelling in HNE have significantly weakened during negative phases. Wind and Ekman pumping anomalies are the primary forces driving the changes in upwelling. However, for the negative phase of ENSO, anomalies in large-scale circulation dominate the variability of upwelling after the 1990s. Our study highlights the complexity of the mechanisms driving the variability of upwelling in the SCS and the importance of ENSO and IOD in predicting their long-term changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143909193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fair-Weather Nearshore Surface Winds: Observational Insights and Gaussian Process Regression Analysis","authors":"Charlotte Benbow,&nbsp;Jamie MacMahan,&nbsp;Ed B. Thornton,&nbsp;Pat Collins,&nbsp;James Hlywiak,&nbsp;Milan Curcic,&nbsp;Jesus Ruiz-Plancarte,&nbsp;David D. Flagg,&nbsp;Qing Wang,&nbsp;Brian K. Haus","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021139","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;The fair-weather (wind speeds &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;&lt;&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${&lt; } $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;10 m/s), surface (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;z&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $z=$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; 4 m), nearshore wind field modification is examined with multiple cross-shore arrays spanning from the coastline to 40 km offshore, deployed within four-month-long field experiments, measuring winds and air-water temperatures. The over-water to coastline winds ratio, &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;R&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;U&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${R}_{U}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, was previously explored for offshore winds with limited observations and minimally for onshore and alongshore winds. Array observations provide a complete picture of the nearshore wind field for all wind orientations. The over-water wind and temperature are linearly related to coastline values near the coastline, with &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${r}^{2}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; decreasing with distance from shore, &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;X&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;W&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${X}^{W}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, with a decorrelation scale of 10 km. Mean &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;R&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;U&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${R}_{U}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; as a function of &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;X&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;W&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${X}^{W}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; differs per wind orientation, consistent with prior work. An &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;msub&gt;\u0000 &lt;mover&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;R","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC021139","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143909192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of Phosphorus Recycling in Sediments on the Primary Productivity of Phytoplankton in the Northern South China Sea","authors":"Meiqi Shen,&nbsp;Guanqiang Cai,&nbsp;Jie Lin,&nbsp;Xiaoyan Ruan,&nbsp;Xuejie Li,&nbsp;Yi Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021652","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The coupling relationship between sediment phosphorus (P) recycle processes and phytoplankton primary productivity (PP) on the spatial scale was investigated by characterizing the distributions of algal PP and P species in a total of 38 surface sediments from the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) to the outer shelf, northern South China Sea. Through analyzing the relationships among algal PP, phosphate concentrations (surface water and bottom water), and sediment bioavailable P species (Ex-P, OP, and Fe-P), our results revealed P exchange among sediment-bottom surface water, influencing the local PP. Specifically, in the PRE, an increased input of terrigenous nutrients resulted in high OP concentration and subsequent accumulation in sediments. However, our results revealed that the PP in the PRE was lower than that in the western coast, probably due to light restriction. In the western coast, different relationships between PP and P species were found, with a strong correlation in the upwelling zone, indicating the potential intensified recycling of P species, such as OP and Fe-P within the sediments released into the water column and further fertilizing PP. In the outer shelf, the weak correlations among Ex-P, OP, Fe-P, and PP suggested that P may no longer be a significant limiting factor. Our results highlight the influence of hydrodynamic condition on the P recycle processes in the water column, which has important implications for understanding organic carbon deposition and the P cycle under ocean anoxia in geological history.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143908962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Freshwater Variability in the Southern Part of the Indonesian Maritime Continent During Indo-Pacific Climate Anomalies, Revealed by High-Resolution OGCM","authors":"Amirotul Bahiyah,&nbsp;Yukio Masumoto,&nbsp;Anindya Wirasatriya,&nbsp;Wijaya Mardiansyah,&nbsp;Iskhaq Iskandar","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021654","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) exhibits fresher conditions during the northwest monsoon, particularly in its southern hemisphere component (hereafter, “IMC_sh”). The salinity budget formula is used to calculate the contributions of surface flux, river discharge, and advection to seasonal salinity patterns in the Banda Sea and its link to climatic events. The Banda Sea exhibits mild freshening in December and massive freshening in March. The December freshening is associated with surface flux caused by precipitation, and the March freshening with Java Sea zonal advection, with a modest contribution from surface flux. The Java Sea undergoes freshening during the early phase of the northwest monsoon, from November to December; this is dominated by surface flux, with a modest contribution from South China Sea (SCS) throughflow. This freshening is the major contributor to freshwater in the IMC_sh. From January to May, Java Sea salinity declines, owing primarily to river discharge, with oceanic precipitation having slight effect. The contribution of low-salinity water from the SCS to the Java Sea is smaller than that of surface flux. Comparing years, IMC_sh salinity is more closely associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and its current component with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Freshening in the Banda Sea is strongly correlated with ENSO, while that in the Java Sea is highly correlated to the IOD. Salinization in the Banda Sea in September–November affects IOD in the following February. These findings reveal that the northwest monsoon freshening is driven primarily by river discharge and advection (independent or coupled).</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolving El Niño Patterns and Their Potential to Transform California Market Squid (Doryteuthis opalescens) Fishing Environment","authors":"Yong-Fu Lin,&nbsp;Jin-Yi Yu,&nbsp;Chuen-Teyr Terng,&nbsp;Chau-Ron Wu,&nbsp;Yu-San Han,&nbsp;Min-Hui Lo,&nbsp;Jian-Ming Liau,&nbsp;Ting-Hui Lee,&nbsp;He-Ming Xiao","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021951","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The geographic center of El Niño has shifted from the tropical eastern Pacific (EP) in the 20th century to the tropical central Pacific (CP) in the 21st century. Analyzing data spanning 1948–2018, this study uncovers notable alterations in the impact of the changing El Niño patterns on California market squid (<i>Doryteuthis opalescens</i>) landings. While the traditional EP El Niño in the 20th century significantly reduces squid landings, this impact diminishes with the ascent of the CP type of El Niño in the 21st century. Remarkably, the CP-I type of El Niño, a specific variant where warming occurs predominantly in the central Pacific and is often less intense but more frequent than traditional El Niño events, can even amplify squid landings. These transformations stem from variations in sea surface temperature, trade winds, and Sverdrup transport associated with different El Niño types. These findings suggest that the fishery community should consider developing adaptive approaches to address the evolving impacts of El Niño.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Sediment Dynamics on the Inner Shelf of the East China Sea: Path-Specific Effects and Superposition Analysis","authors":"Shuai Cong,&nbsp;Xiao Wu,&nbsp;Jianzhong Ge,&nbsp;Naishuang Bi,&nbsp;Yunhai Li,&nbsp;Yunpeng Lin,&nbsp;Houjie Wang","doi":"10.1029/2025JC022526","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022526","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical cyclones (TCs), as highly dynamic and spatially asymmetric synoptic events, can trigger distinct responses in regional sediment dynamics due to their diverse paths. Using numerical modeling, we systematically compared sediment dynamics on the inner shelf of the East China Sea (ECS) under varying TC path categories. Via statistics from three best-track archives, six primary clusters of TCs impacting the inner shelf were identified, most of which induce notable asymmetric sediment dynamic responses. Based on the relationship between TC paths and sediment redistribution patterns, these clusters can be further categorized into three groups. The first group, exerting the most significant impact, triggers substantial downwind sediment transport southwestward along the shelf and seaward south of 28°N, resulting in offshore deposition between 26 and 28°N. The second group transports sediment along the shelf within the 30-m isobaths and deposits it near the Taiwan Strait. The last group, characterized by a single TC path but occurring most frequently, redistributes sediment southward from the muddy belt center with limited impacts in the northern regions. Based on path superposition analysis, we illustrated that TCs can cause severe erosion within the 30-m isobaths and form offshore deposition between 26 and 28°N. The TC-induced sediment redistribution could be the primary driver of cross-shelf transport near 27°N, aligning well with the offshore depocenter south of the ECS muddy belt. This study highlights the critical role of TC paths in sediment dynamics and provides insights into their impacts on the formation and subsequent evolution of muddy deposits on continental shelves.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Particulate Organic Carbon in the Banda Sea","authors":"Yijia Jia,&nbsp;Zhenyan Wang,&nbsp;Xinling Song,&nbsp;Wenjian Li,&nbsp;Meihan Zhao,&nbsp;Yujie Fu","doi":"10.1029/2025JC022520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022520","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Banda Sea is the center of the global “Coral Triangle” characterized by high productivity. As the “mix master” of Indonesian throughflow and part of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, the Banda Sea is sensitive to climate variability events. However, few studies has been focused on seasonal and interannual variability and control mechanism of surface particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Banda Sea. Using 19 years of satellite data (2003–2021), this study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of surface POC. A self-organizing map was applied to analyze interannual anomalies. The POC time-series follows a bimodal seasonal cycle, primarily driven by monsoon-controlled upwelling and surface currents. Concentrations of POC are higher in the east during the southeast monsoon (SEM), controlled by the eastern upwelling driven by the southeastwardly wind. POC concentrations are highest in the southwest during the northwest monsoon (NWM), influenced by the South China Sea throughflow. The interannual anomalies in the Banda Sea are controlled mainly by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During +IOD/El Niño, the POC anomaly was positive during SEM, and the POC anomaly was negative during NWM; the reverse occurs during −IOD/La Niña. Excessive precipitation during the multiyear La Niña from 2010 to 2013 led to negative POC anomaly. The 2009–2010 El Niño Modoki caused westerly wind anomaly over the Banda Sea, resulting in opposite situation to the traditional El Niño. This study explores the remote control mechanism of surface POC in the Banda Sea by climate variability events.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Formation and Circulation of Dense Water From a Two-Year Moored Record in the Northwestern Iceland Sea","authors":"Stefanie Semper,&nbsp;Kjetil Våge,&nbsp;Ilker Fer,&nbsp;Linda Latuta,&nbsp;Silje Skjelsvik","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021691","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021691","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The recent sea-ice retreat in the western Nordic Seas has exposed the ocean to the atmosphere in winter, thereby facilitating dense-water formation. Here, we present a 2-year long record (2016–2018) of ocean stratification and currents from the northwestern Iceland Sea, which was obtained from a mooring deployed in Eggvin Offset, an approximately 1,500 m deep passage between the Greenland and Iceland Seas. The trajectory of an Argo float deployed in winter 2017/2018 indicates a connection between Eggvin Offset and the slope north of Iceland, where the boundary currents that supply the overflows east and west of Iceland originate. However, the low transport of potential overflow water (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>σ</mi>\u0000 <mi>θ</mi>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 <mo>≥</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sigma }_{theta }ge $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 27.8 kg m⁻³) through Eggvin Offset demonstrates that it is not a major passage for the exchange of dense water. Dense-water formation occurred during both winter 2016/2017 and winter 2017/2018; the mixed layer cooled and deepened mainly as an integrated response to a succession of cold-air outbreaks. Greater turbulent heat fluxes and a more even distribution of cold-air outbreaks at the mooring site in winter 2016/2017 resulted in mixed-layer depths reaching a maximum of approximately 450 m, compared to 350 m the following winter. The water formed in Eggvin Offset those recent winters attained densities similar to those of water formed in the central Iceland Sea four decades ago. This supports the notion that in a warming climate, the locus of dense-water formation has shifted from the interior basin to the western Iceland Sea.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonably Variable Estuarine Exchange Through Interconnected Channels in the Salish Sea","authors":"Camryn Stang,&nbsp;Susan E. Allen","doi":"10.1029/2024JC022003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022003","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Salish Sea is a semi-enclosed estuary whose largest basin (Strait of Georgia (SoG)) is connected to the north-eastern Pacific Ocean through regions with tight constructions and sills that cause intense tidal mixing. The estuarine circulation is complicated through the tidally mixed region around the San Juan and Gulf Islands, which consists of three different straits: Haro Strait, Rosario Strait, and San Juan Channel (SJC). Haro Strait, as the largest and deepest of the channels, is the dominant pathway; however, we determine that Rosario Strait also has an important influence in this region. To examine the differences in water transport through the different channels, Lagrangian particle tracking experiments were performed for a 4-year hindcast (from 2018 to 2022) using the 3-dimensional numerical model SalishSeaCast. While Haro Strait has southward surface flow and northward deep flow, the flux making it through Rosario Strait and SJC is primarily southward. The proportion of the total southward flux through these two channels is higher from May to October and this increase is attributed to the influence of both the Fraser River and the river discharge from Puget Sound. Rosario Strait is the dominant pathway of southward exchange from the SoG to Puget Sound, while the majority of deep northward flux to the SoG is through Haro Strait.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC022003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Robust Sea-Level Projections for Singapore by 2100 and 2150","authors":"Trina Ng,&nbsp;Gregory Garner,&nbsp;Jennifer H. Weeks,&nbsp;Peter Hogarth,&nbsp;Matthew D. Palmer,&nbsp;Tanghua Li,&nbsp;Aurel Moise,&nbsp;Benjamin P. Horton","doi":"10.1029/2024JC021840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC021840","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rising sea levels pose a critical challenge for low-lying countries such as Singapore, highlighting the need for accurate projections to inform adaptation strategies. However, data limitations, climate model uncertainties, and regional deviations complicate these projections. Here, we evaluate relative sea-level rise (RSLR) projections for Singapore by 2100 and 2150 based on Singapore's Second National Climate Change Study (V2), UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), and new V3 projections. Projections are provided under low (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) and high (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios at six tide gauges across Singapore. The V3 projections reflect a correction to the erroneous tide-gauge record at Sembawang, which affected the contribution of vertical land movement (VLM) to the IPCC AR6 projections. The correction shows VLM adds 0.14 m by 2100 and 0.21 m by 2150 to RSLR at Sembawang. By 2100, V3 projections indicate a RSLR of 0.42 m (likely range: 0.26–0.63 m) under low emissions increasing to 0.67 m (0.38–1.07 m) by 2150. Under high emissions, RSLR is 0.75 m (0.58–1.04 m) by 2100, increasing to 1.32 m (0.9–1.95 m) by 2150. We find that ocean sterodynamics is the largest contributor to RSLR (∼40%) although uncertainties related to Antarctic ice sheet contributions are greater. Our findings highlight the need for accurate data especially from historical archives to improve the robustness of VLM and RSLR projections in Singapore and elsewhere.</p>","PeriodicalId":54340,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans","volume":"130 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JC021840","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143897115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}