Drivers of Water Mass Volume Changes in the Nordic Seas (2005–2020)

The Nordic Seas are integral parts of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a key region for the global climate. In this study, we combine observational products, largely derived from the Argo array, to examine the changes affecting ocean conditions in the different regions of the Nordic Seas from 2005 to 2020. Significant warming and deepening of isopycnal surfaces have been found across all regions since 2013, resulting in a volume increase of the surface layer above the σ₀ < 27.8 kg m⁻³ isopycnal. A volume budget over three isopycnal layers is built to disentangle the relative roles played by the atmospheric forcing that results in local water mass transformation and large-scale advection. In eastern basins, an increase in both the advection of Atlantic water and surface water mass transformation led to an expansion of the surface layer after 2012. In contrast, changes found in the Greenland Sea result primarily from a decrease in transport convergence and changes in the surface forcing that ventilates all layers of the region. Our analysis also highlights that an improved sampling of the region, including toward greater depths and on the East Greenland shelves, is required to reduce uncertainties in the water mass transformation budget of the Nordic Seas and to better understand the mechanisms at play.