Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"A review on machine learning models for drought monitoring and forecasting","authors":"Ahmedbahaaaldin Ibrahem Ahmed Osman ,&nbsp;Nouar AlDahoul ,&nbsp;Kai Lun Chong ,&nbsp;Yuk Feng Huang ,&nbsp;Jing Lin Ng ,&nbsp;Ahmed Elshafie ,&nbsp;Mohsen Sherif ,&nbsp;Ali Najah Ahmed","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100758","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100758","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Drought, driven by shifting climate patterns, increasingly threatens hydropower, agriculture, and water supply systems, necessitating robust early detection and forecasting frameworks. This review critically examines recent machine learning (ML) approaches to drought prediction, focusing on meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought types across diverse temporal and spatial scales. We analyze the influence of input variables, such as precipitation, streamflow, climate indices, and remote sensing data, on model performance, and identify key trends including the rise of hybrid and deep learning models for capturing nonlinear dependencies and long-term patterns. Unique contributions include a comparative evaluation of model interpretability, scalability, and data requirements, as well as the identification of persistent gaps such as limited regional transferability and underrepresentation of socio-environmental factors. By proposing a framework for selecting optimal models based on data availability, complexity, and operational constraints, this review offers actionable insights for researchers and policymakers seeking to develop adaptive, context-aware drought mitigation strategies that ensure long-term water sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100758"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145571457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expanding integrated protection motivation theory and theory of planned behavior: The role of source of influence in flood and typhoon risk preparedness intentions in Quezon Province, Philippines","authors":"Maria Rossana D. de Veluz ,&nbsp;Ardvin Kester S. Ong ,&nbsp;Anak Agung Ngurah Perwira Redi ,&nbsp;Renato R. Maaliw ,&nbsp;Pitz Gerald Lagrazon ,&nbsp;Charlotte N. Monetiro","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Philippines is a country that has a high risk of climate-related calamities. The most frequent natural hazard in the nation is believed to be typhoons, and countries that experience numerous typhoons are vulnerable to floods. Quezon, one of the country’s provinces located in the eastern part of the Philippines, has had this critical problem. To comprehend how the source of influence affects disaster preparedness behavior, this study incorporated and extended the integrated theories of protection motivation and planned behavior. A total of 525 people responded to an online survey with 45 modified adapted questions that was carried out in the municipalities of Quezon. According to the structural equation modeling, the latent variables, including family and community, media information, and prior experiences, are all reflective of the source of influence. Additionally, the source of influence has a significant and direct impact on perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, attitude toward behavior, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms. It also indirectly affects the intention to evacuate. This study could not only broaden our understanding of how to prepare for typhoons and floods, but it also offers guidance for planning and managing natural hazard mitigation and disaster risk preparedness in Quezon, Philippines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100706"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental justice lens as a necessity and an opportunity in relocation: The case of the Noordwaard and the Eferding Basin","authors":"Chloé ten Brink ,&nbsp;Idowu Ajibade ,&nbsp;Caroline Zickgraf","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100740","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100740","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental relocation presents a form of risk management that requires organized movement of communities but are complex to carry out and can have inequitable results. A careful examination of the ethical dimensions of relocation from planning to implementation to outcomes offers an avenue for understanding and addressing potential injustices. Using a deductive environmental justice framework, we analyzed two compensation-based relocations, also understood as buyouts: the 2013 Danube flood relocation in Austria’s Eferding Basin and the Noordwaard de-poldering in the Netherlands’ Room for the River program. We combined document analysis (n = 62) and semi-structured interviews (n = 20) to assess justice concerns, focusing on distributive, procedural, and ecological dimensions. Distributive justice was primarily addressed through financial compensation, offering 100 % market value in the Noordwaard and 80 % in the Eferding Basin, but non-monetary considerations were relatively neglected. Procedural justice, particularly transparency and citizen participation, were insufficient. Considerations of ecological justice were absent in the Eferding Basin but the Noordwaard’s use of nature-based solutions and prioritization of spatial quality led to multiple environmental benefits. Overall, this paper argues that justice should not be viewed simply as a criterion to be fulfilled, but rather as a guiding principle for addressing the broader, short and long-term impacts, and well-being related to relocation. By adopting this perspective, justice can be understood as an opportunity for positive transformation, allowing environmental relocation to be framed as a process with the potential for meaningful, beneficial change rather than solely a response to current or future flood risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100740"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144890460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From climate risk to action: Analysing adaptation decision robustness under uncertainty","authors":"Cecina Babich Morrow ,&nbsp;Laura Dawkins ,&nbsp;Francesca Pianosi ,&nbsp;Dennis Prangle ,&nbsp;Dan Bernie","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100751","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100751","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate adaptation decisions are made under great uncertainty, arising from uncertainties about both the level of climate risk and the attributes of decision options. Decision-makers must understand how uncertainties in the input factors of risk assessment and decision models affect the ultimate adaptation decision, and whether the modelling yields a robust decision, i.e. one that is consistently identified as optimal over a range of uncertain input factors. Here, we present a framework for analysing the robustness of climate adaptation decisions. We apply a Bayesian Decision Analysis framework to determine the optimal output decision in a region based on both climate risk and decision-related attributes. Then, we present an approach for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the optimal adaptation decision itself to assess robustness and understand which input factors most influence the decision in a particular region. We demonstrate this framework on an idealised example of adaptation decision-making to mitigate the risk of heat-stress on outdoor physical working capacity in the UK. In this application, we find that regions with high uncertainty in climate risk can still exhibit greater robustness in the optimal decision, and the decision is often more sensitive to variations in decision-related attributes rather than risk-related attributes. Previous research often stops short at assessing uncertainty and sensitivity in climate risk alone. These results highlight the necessity of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the ultimate decision output itself in order to understand what factors drive decision robustness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100751"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive capacity management in municipalities in the Semiarid region of Brazil: Application of a composite index","authors":"Yonara Claudia dos Santos ,&nbsp;Zoraide Souza Pessoa","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The balance between urban growth and global environmental and climate challenges, as well as their local implications, is a fundamental contemporary concern, and often neglected in government agendas at a local scale. The integration of these issues into urban and territorial planning is still incipient in the Brazilian context, especially in smaller cities and in regions such as the Semiarid region of Brazil, where socioeconomic challenges are particularly sensitive to climate impacts. This study diagnoses the adaptive capacity of local management in the Brazilian Semiarid region, revealing high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity that reflect inadequate integration of socio-environmental and climatic issues, as assessed through the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA). The method used is based on data from the Municipal Basic Information Survey (Munic/IBGE) and operates on a scale from 0 to 1, segmented into five strata corresponding to classification levels ranging from classification levels ranging from “very low” to “very high”. The “very high” stratum indicates a more critical scenario in terms of threats and vulnerabilities, while the “very low” stratum indicates deficiencies in risk management and adaptive capacity. IGCA scores ranged from 0.137 to 0.442, with 76% of municipalities classified as having low adaptive capacity. The operationalization is conducted through weighted variables and the additive approach of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using GIS software to map threats, vulnerabilities and adaptive management measures to climate change. The results obtained in 21 municipalities in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, reveal a high exposure to climate threats, particularly in relation to social vulnerability. This vulnerability is evident not only in the studied municipalities but likely throughout the region. Given this scenario of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, significant efforts are needed to improve the adaptation and resilience capacity of these regions, including a more integrated approach to climate risk management, strengthening local governance and raising awareness of the importance of integrating climate and environmental issues in government policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100696"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of remittances in building resilience through adaptive capacities amid environmental and socioeconomic vulnerabilities: A systematic literature review","authors":"Ikram Ullah ,&nbsp;Niraj Prakash Joshi ,&nbsp;Luni Piya","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100769","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100769","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This systematic review examines how financial and social remittances contribute to resilience under environmental and socioeconomic stress by synthesizing 79 peer-reviewed studies published between 2002 and 2025. Guided by a Disaster Resilience Integrated Framework for Transformation (DRIFT)-informed, stage-based framework, we analyze resilience before, during, and after disasters, linking each phase to capacities such as consumption smoothing, livelihood diversification, asset-based adaptation, social capital, and institutional empowerment. Remittance-resilience research expanded rapidly after 2020, with most studies focusing on Asia and Africa and fewer in Latin America, Europe, and Pacific Small Island Developing States. Financial remittances primarily support immediate stabilization and asset repair, whereas social remittances strengthen skills, networks, risk awareness, and collective action that underpin longer-term adjustment. Regional patterns differ: Asian cases emphasize consumption smoothing and housing upgrades, while African studies highlight diversification and institutional pathways. Our review contributes by mapping remittance roles across household, community, and system levels; linking micro-level mechanisms to governance and market conditions; and offering a comparative regional synthesis. Key constraints include dependency risks, unequal access by gender and income, and market or institutional volatility. Policy priorities include integrating remittances into national adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies, reducing transfer costs through digital rails, leveraging diaspora co-financing, and strengthening financial and digital literacy to enhance inclusive, shock-responsive resilience aligned with Sustainable Development Goals 11, 13, and 16.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100769"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145617731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors affecting the application of protective measures before flood occurrence among local communities in Iran","authors":"Esmaiel Askari ,&nbsp;Moslem Savari ,&nbsp;Marzieh Rezaei","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100730","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100730","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods rank among the most destructive natural hazards, inflicting extensive damage on rural areas by compromising infrastructure, destroying crops, and undermining livelihoods. Beyond the immediate economic losses, such events often trigger rural outmigration and erode social cohesion. Effective flood prevention strategies are therefore critical and can be advanced through public awareness campaigns, the reinforcement of social capital, the development of flood-resilient infrastructure, and the implementation of integrated crisis management plans. Despite the importance of these measures, previous research has largely concentrated on assessing community vulnerability, with limited attention given to proactive protective factors. Addressing this gap, the present study aims to identify the determinants influencing the adoption of protective measures among rural communities in Iran prior to flood events. The statistical population of this study comprised all rural households in Shushtar County, located in Khuzestan Province, southwest Iran. A sample of 353 rural household heads was selected using the Krejcie and Morgan table, applying a multi-stage stratified sampling method to ensure representation across different villages. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed by a panel of subject matter experts, while reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. Data analysis was conducted in two phases—descriptive and inferential statistics—using SPSS and SmartPLS software. The findings demonstrated that the variables of psychological distance, social media use, place attachment, flood experience, social capital, and flood risk perception had significant and positive effects on protective behaviors prior to flooding. Collectively, these variables accounted for 76.3% of the variance in protective measures. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers seeking to enhance the resilience and safety of rural communities in flood-prone regions. By proactively addressing flood risks, such measures can contribute to the sustainability of rural livelihoods and the strengthening of local resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100730"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144685725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations","authors":"Douglas C. Jaks ,&nbsp;Ashish Shrestha ,&nbsp;Christopher M. Chini","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100718"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate","authors":"Zhiting Chen ,&nbsp;Kimberley Clare O’Sullivan ,&nbsp;Rachel Kowalchuk Dohig ,&nbsp;Nevil Pierse ,&nbsp;Terence Jiang ,&nbsp;Mylène Riva ,&nbsp;Runa Das","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the health risks associated with indoor overheating and the impacts of cooling energy poverty during summer is becoming increasingly urgent as anthropogenic climate change intensifies heatwave events in many places. We report on results from a cross-sectional postal survey undertaken in Summer 2021/2022, conducted in five regions of New Zealand that typically experience some of the highest temperatures nationally. The study revealed that energy poverty is significant issue during summer, with 43% of the respondents identifying cost as a cooling restriction. Indoor overheating commonly affected the health and wellbeing of participants, with 63% reporting adverse health outcomes. Households citing cost as a cooling restriction were significantly more likely to report adverse health outcomes. Renters and indigenous Māori households were disproportionately affected by indoor overheating and the associated health and energy inequities. These findings highlight the growing health risks from indoor heat exposure in warming climatesparticularly in temperate countries like New Zealand, where inhabitants and infrastructure are not adequately prepared to handle heat-related risks. Relying solely on energy-intensive active cooling exacerbates energy poverty and injustice, increasing residential energy demand. Policy interventions should focus on promoting passive, energy-efficient, and sustainable cooling strategies to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related health disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100698"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does livelihood risk matter in disaster preparedness? Insights from flood risk areas of rural China","authors":"Wei Liu ,&nbsp;Pengfei Qi ,&nbsp;Jie Xu ,&nbsp;Marcus Feldman ,&nbsp;Dingde Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Farmers in flood-risk areas are exposed to disruptions in their daily production and livelihood operations. However, disaster preparedness can reduce risk and minimize household losses, thereby increasing livelihood sustainability for farming families. Although sustainable livelihoods and disaster preparedness of farmers have been categorized, few studies have explored the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. This study examines survey data from 540 farming family households in the three counties Gaoxian, Jiajiang, and Yuechi, which are affected by floods. We consider four distinct types of livelihood risks faced by farmers and three categories of disaster preparedness in the study area and construct a Tobit regression model to test the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. The results show (1) a significant correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness among farmers; (2) health risk is positively correlated with farmers’ physical preparedness; (3) social risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ physical, knowledge and skills, and overall disaster preparedness; and (4) financial risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ overall disaster preparedness. Our findings may assist in disaster preparedness and in policy formulation pertaining to flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100705"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}