Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"From fast to slow risks: Shifting vulnerabilities of flood-related migration in Lodwar, Kenya","authors":"Marina Korzenevica ,&nbsp;Philemon Ong'ao Ng'asike ,&nbsp;Mary Ngikadelio ,&nbsp;Didymus Lokomwa ,&nbsp;Peter Ewoton ,&nbsp;Ellen Dyer","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Migration triggered by climate variability or climate change is often a problematic yet nearly unavoidable adaptation measure, particularly due to the increasing severity of natural hazards. How relocation is negotiated, and risks are evaluated at different scales are still poorly understood. We discuss the temporality and complexity of risks, that are experienced and approached through socio-spatial differences of intersectional embodiment (<span>Sultana, 2020</span>). The study is based on two flood-related qualitative case studies in the small semi-arid and rapidly growing town of Lodwar in the poorest county of Kenya, Turkana. We propose the typology of fast and slow risks to understand the different strategies, negotiations, and priorities of different people involved. Due to political abstraction, three main slow risks were not addressed: concerning land, water, and income. Consequently, vulnerabilities deepened and shifted at different scales: along the axes of gender and able-bodiedness as women and particularly widows, ageing, sick, and single mothers were bearing the main hardship; but also, between communities as hazard risks were deliberately shifted onto a politically less affluent community. We argue that in the process of negotiations, people have been actively advocating for, trying to manage, and rethinking their slow risks. They have often been employing slow responses, particularly in the form of waiting and reimagining.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100584"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000019/pdfft?md5=a37f49386caa885982ad01bbf3d32946&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000019-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139398393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Establishing a methodology to measure vulnerability of unhoused populations to climate change in the United States","authors":"Harris R. Eisenhardt ,&nbsp;Thomas Peterson ,&nbsp;Michael Schwebel","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The interactions between climate change and homelessness in the United States are neither widely documented nor uniformly quantified. Individuals who experience homelessness are commonly not accounted for in community, state, or federal climate change adaptation planning or vulnerability assessment frameworks. Drawing on established vulnerability assessment publications, this review and analysis presents a standard approach to evaluate the climate vulnerability of an unhoused population, modeled at U.S. census tract granularity. The methodology features recommended steps to leverage modeling-, survey-, and evaluation-based indicators to measure exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to determine vulnerability of an unhoused population to relevant climate impact drivers. Standardizing a vulnerability assessment methodology that prioritizes unhoused populations can facilitate new opportunities for data compilation, enabling assessment practitioners to highlight urgent vulnerability gaps and undertake targeted interventions to improve resilience within an unhoused population.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100629"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000469/pdfft?md5=9ea31081d7d5041fc1ddc8036f818b65&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000469-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141482612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meteorological disasters, downside risk of grain yield and mitigation effect of high-standard farmland construction policy in China","authors":"Xue Gao ,&nbsp;Shengze Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The exploration of ways to reduce the downside risk of grain yield posed by meteorological disasters has become a primary task in China. This study employs a moment-based model to estimate the downside risks of maize, rice, and wheat yields. It further analyses the risk mitigation effects of implementing a high-standard farmland construction policy in China using a continuous difference-in-differences (DID) model and Chinese provincial data from 2005 to 2017. The results show that the downside risk of wheat yield but not of maize or rice yield increases when meteorological disasters are considered, implying that wheat is more vulnerable to the adverse effects of meteorological disasters than are maize and rice. China’s high-standard farmland construction policy can significantly mitigate the downside risk of wheat yield. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that provinces with higher education levels and lower population density benefit the most from the downside risk reduction due to the implementation of the high-standard farmland construction policy. To further mitigate the downside risk posed by meteorological disasters, China should accelerate the construction of high-standard farmland while simultaneously focusing on upgrading human capital and promoting urbanization in rural areas.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100633"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000500/pdfft?md5=a3f8bcd990379483a5d3d32768faf868&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000500-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141539513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Perceptions of and adaptation to climate change in mountainous agro-pastoral communities: The case of the Afghan central highlands","authors":"Qurban Aliyar ,&nbsp;Marzieh Keshavarz ,&nbsp;Mohammad Wali Salari ,&nbsp;David Haro-Monteagudo ,&nbsp;Morteza Esmaelnejad ,&nbsp;Neil Collins","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100639","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100639","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for agro-pastoral families in the central highlands of Afghanistan. However, their livelihoods have been significantly affected by climate change. This study examines climate change perceptions, consequences, and adaptive capacity from agro-pastoral communities’ experiences and behaviours in the five central provinces of Afghanistan. A survey was conducted in 521 agro-pastoral households to collect data on socioeconomic factors, perceptions, and adaptation indicators. The results show how agro-pastoral communities are affected by climate change, how they adapt, and which factors influence their decision-making and challenges when using traditional knowledge in adaptation. The analysed data revealed perceptions of both the positive and negative consequences of climate change. Positive consequences include shorter cold seasons, fewer avalanches, improved accessibility, reduced fuel requirements for heating, and extended grazing seasons. However, the perceived negative consequences of climate change include recurrence of severe and sustained droughts, decreased snowfall, and reduced crop yields. Additionally, K-means cluster analysis revealed low, medium, and high levels of adaptation to climate change. Agro-pastoral families have adopted various strategies to improve their adaptation to climate change, including crop, soil, water, livestock, expenditure, and livelihood management. Furthermore, socio-demographic factors, drought severity, perceived climate change, and perceived climate change impacts were the main determinants of adaptation to climate change. This study outlines the main gaps and drivers to help future researchers, managers, and decision-makers prioritize their actions based on farmers’ concerns and their adaptive capacity to abate climate change impacts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100639"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000561/pdfft?md5=25080172c915840b1e654798023e6caa&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000561-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141932829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Building knowledge and capacity for climate change risk management in the health sector: The case of Queensland","authors":"Jean P. Palutikof ,&nbsp;Fahim N. Tonmoy ,&nbsp;Sarah L. Boulter ,&nbsp;Peter Schneider ,&nbsp;Rizsa Albarracin","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In 2019, the Queensland Department of Health and National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University co-produced three resources to support Queensland Hospital and Health Service (HHS) staff to identify and manage present-day and future risks from climate change. The first resource is two templates to be completed in order to develop a risk management plan: the high-level Scan Cycle template, and the Detailed Cycle template for evaluation of serious risks requiring urgent action. Second, the Guidelines lead the user through the process. Third, an Almanac provides supporting information and links to additional resources. Together, these resources deliver a comprehensive set of tools, known as the ‘Guidance’, to support and guide HHS staff to address their climate change risks. A programme of training workshops was carried out throughout Queensland, taking staff from all HHS sectors through the templates and providing opportunity for in-depth discussion of their risks. Some gaps in the Guidance were identified in the workshops, for example the need to include humidity in the climate scenarios for Queensland’s subtropical and tropical environments, and to consider system-wide interdependencies when identifying effective adaptation strategies for the highly complex HHSs. Some barriers to effective utilisation of the Guidance include, for example its complexity balanced against the time available to staff. The Guidance is an effective tool to promote and guide adaptation action, but in itself is insufficient – it requires senior management support and financing, and possibly regulatory reporting requirements, in order to properly fulfil its role.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100644"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000615/pdfft?md5=bf3ad242c67f53bdbe242a043bb31de2&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000615-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142058468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors associated with smallholders’ uptake of intercropping in Southeast Asia: A cross-country analysis of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia","authors":"Thanh Mai Ha ,&nbsp;Pisidh Voe ,&nbsp;Sayvisene Boulom ,&nbsp;Thi Thanh Loan Le ,&nbsp;Cong Duan Dao ,&nbsp;Fu Yang ,&nbsp;Xuan Phi Dang ,&nbsp;Thi Thai Hoa Hoang ,&nbsp;Assem Abu Hatab ,&nbsp;Helena Hansson","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While previous studies acknowledge intercropping as a climate-smart agricultural practice and confirm its prominence in developing countries, behavioral factors underlying farmers’ decision in intercropping adoption remain poorly understood. This study assesses and compares the heterogeneity in adoption of intercropping among smallholder farmers in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, through the lens of climate change adaptation. A sample of 1017 smallholder farmers was recruited for a household survey across the three countries using a convenient sampling approach. Principle component analysis (PCA) was performed to identify the main dimensions of farmers’ perception towards climate change and adaptation. Next, generalized order logit regressions were employed to assess the association between farmers’ adoption tendency of intercropping and their perception of climate change and adaptation, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of intercropping, and socio-demographic characteristics. The study shows that perceived climate severity was negatively associated with intercropping adoption tendency in Vietnam and Laos (p &lt; 0.001). In all studied countries, farmers who perceived a higher level of climate change impact were less interested in intercropping. Perceived ease and perceived usefulness of intercropping were positively related to farmers’ adoption of intercropping in the three countries (p &lt; 0.001). Information acquisition on climate change adaptation reduced the willingness to intercrop in Vietnam (p &lt; 0.001) but increased the adoption readiness in Laos (p &lt; 0.001) and Cambodia (p &lt; 0.1). Informal social support hampered readiness to adopt intercropping only in Vietnam (p &lt; 0.001). Lastly, households with a home garden were more willing to adopt intercropping in Laos (p &lt; 0.1) and Cambodia (p &lt; 0.001), compared to households without a home garden. Policies focused on enhancing the perceived ease and benefits of intercropping, alongside improving the access and usability of information on climate change and adaptation, could incentivize adoption of intercropping among smallholder farmers,therefore strengthening their resilience against the impacts of climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100646"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000639/pdfft?md5=e846cacf68b2a62b6e04377e4bf04e93&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000639-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142122961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Linking the interplay of resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation to long-term changes in metropolitan spaces for climate-related disaster risk management","authors":"Chih-Hsuan Hung ,&nbsp;Hung-Chih Hung ,&nbsp;Mu-Chien Hsu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accelerated urbanization and development in disaster-prone areas have prompted urban authorities to adopt adaptation strategies to improve resilience and vulnerability to climate change and related disasters. Therefore, assessing resilience, vulnerability and their evolution over time becomes crucial in comprehending the dynamics of interactions between resilience, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and urban spatial changes. Using an empirical study in Taipei Metropolis, Taiwan, we developed a Framework for Metropolitan Resilience-Vulnerability-Adaptation Assessments. This framework integrated spatial statistics with multicriteria decision-making analyses to assess overall resilience and capacities to tackle climate-related disaster risks, as well as their dynamics between the years 2001 and 2016. Our approach further employed resilience and vulnerability change models to explore the connections between adaptive capacities and improvements in resilience and vulnerability over time. Results indicate that low-resilience and high-vulnerability areas are significantly clustered and continue to deteriorate, particularly in fast-growing <em>peri</em>-urban and old-downtown communities. Moreover, comparing the effects of adaptive factors shows that increasing investments in transportation networks, public lands, and infrastructure does not lead to the improvements in resilience and vulnerability in the long-term. This implies that conflicts and trade-offs may exist between certain adaptation options and resilience building efforts. Numerous disaster-proof, public facilities and emergency responses may simply provide short-term benefits and potentially lead to maladaptive outcomes. They create a way to encourage large-scale land development and urban space changes, thereby locking in adaptation pathways focused on short-term resilience improvement, while strengthening the vulnerability loops in the long-term. Our findings provide metropolitan governors and stakeholders valuable insights into formulating more effective adaptive policies that reconcile resilience and vulnerability. They also broaden the scope for urban land use policy-making and metropolitan governance, providing opportunities to mitigate climate-related disaster risks more effectively.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100618"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000354/pdfft?md5=dc13d41cce0323e4609344bf554da994&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000354-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141053056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment: Identifying climate risk interdependencies within the infrastructure and built environment system for effective climate adaptation","authors":"Lygia Romanach ,&nbsp;Fanny Boulaire ,&nbsp;Aysha Fleming ,&nbsp;Tim Capon ,&nbsp;Sonia Bluhm ,&nbsp;Brenda B. Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100670","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100670","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, there are unavoidable impacts of climate change that are occurring now and will continue to unfold into the future. As the frequency and intensity of climate disasters increase, improving our understanding of climate risks will be critical for developing effective national climate adaptation actions. In recognition of the need for greater interdisciplinary and cross-sector collaboration to improve our understanding of systemic climate risks, a broad range of decision-makers across government and non-government organisations were engaged to identify Australia’s nationally significant risks through Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA). In this paper, we describe the collaborative process developed for Australia’s NCRA and highlight the climate risk interdependencies identified for the infrastructure and built environment (I&amp;BE) system. The I&amp;BE system was chosen to illustrate the need to consider climate risk interdependencies, as this system’s sectors are heavily interconnected and fundamental to the functioning of critical infrastructure, essential services and supply chains. Using data collected through Australia’s NCRA, we illustrate how climate hazards create risks to individual I&amp;BE sectors and how such risks aggregate, compound and/or cascade to form systemic risks. These systemic risks impact not only the I&amp;BE system but also other systems, such as defence and national security, health and social support, and economy, trade and finance. Due to the high interdependencies of climate risks across sectors and systems, cross-sector collaboration is critical to address the interconnectedness of the systems and to develop effective climate adaptation strategies. A systemic approach to address climate risks will allow for response strategies that benefit multiple sectors simultaneously and reduce the likelihood of unforeseen negative compounding and cascading risks and maladaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100670"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Visiting urban green space as a climate-change adaptation strategy: Exploring push factors in a push–pull framework","authors":"Gwendolyn K.L. Wong ,&nbsp;Anson T.H. Ma ,&nbsp;Lewis T.O. Cheung ,&nbsp;Alex Y. Lo ,&nbsp;C.Y. Jim","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100589","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100589","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban green space (UGS) offers users multiple ecosystem services and amenities. This study investigated whether residents used UGS visitation in summer as a sustainable measure to tackle hot weather and associated climate-change impacts in humid-subtropical Hong Kong. Attributes of the indoor residential environment, seldom examined in park-visitation studies, were evaluated as push factors to visit UGS through a push–pull theoretical framework. A questionnaire survey of 483 respondents targeted urban park users. The results indicated that UGS visit frequency and stay duration were relatively low in hot summer. Ordinal multiple regression showed that indoor living conditions, residence location, living routine, and habit and personal health impacts were significantly correlated with UGS visits. Interdependence between push and pull factors was detected, demonstrating that intrinsic UGS environmental conditions could constrain UGS visits despite the motivations of push factors. The results indicated the need to improve the microclimate-regulating function in UGS. It could be achieved mainly by optimizing the nature-based design to promote UGS as an adaptive measure to combat the thermal stress brought by climate change. The findings yielded hints to shape visiting habits and suggestions to improve UGS management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100589"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000068/pdfft?md5=45d357ea4f9521c3c99e64daca4f163b&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000068-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139914839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergies of CGE and IAM modelling for climate change implications on WEFE nexus in the Mediterranean","authors":"Orna Raviv ,&nbsp;Ruslana Rachel Palatnik ,&nbsp;Marta Castellini ,&nbsp;Camilla Gusperti ,&nbsp;Sergio Vergalli ,&nbsp;Julia Sirota ,&nbsp;Mordechai Shechter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Mediterranean Sea Basin (MSB) is experiencing increasing pressure on its natural resources due to climate change (CC) and demographic growth, posing challenges to water and food sustainability. In line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) nexus, this study projects shifts in welfare and food security under various climatic conditions. Agriculture, a sector that is highly vulnerable to climate variability, depends predominantly on rainfed croplands, which constitute 70-100% of agricultural land in most MSB countries. The remaining areas are irrigated by climate-dependent water bodies such as rivers and aquifers.</p><p>A comprehensive analysis of the WEFE nexus is essential for a coherent examination of climate policy and future pathways for the economy and the natural environment. Using a dual-modeling approach, this research assesses the impacts of alternative water sources and irrigated agriculture within the MSB amidst uncertainties of CC-driven extreme events. A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, based on the GTAP framework, was used to examine inter-sectoral and inter-regional impacts. In tandem, the Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) based on the RICE-99 framework quantifies the uncertainties related to future extreme climatic events. This synergistic approach provides a comprehensive assessment of CC impacts, integrating adaptation strategies for alternative water sources and irrigated agriculture, as well as mitigation strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from energy production.</p><p>The focus on cross-sectoral and multi-scale management of water, ecosystems, and food in the MSB was embedded into the economic models - CGE GTAP-AW and IAM RICE-MED, to analyze the impacts of CC adaptation and mitigation strategies on the WEFE nexus. The results indicate a reduced impact of CC on food production, and provide a comprehensive overview of potential adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce food security risks in the MSB. These findings are crucial for policymakers to promote sustainable water and agricultural practices in the face of a changing climate.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100608"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000251/pdfft?md5=f3277dea48cd895c0f3359dd16ce97de&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000251-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140757536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}