Climate Risk Management最新文献

High-resolution spatiotemporal analysis and driver attribution of floods in Kazakhstan using SHAP and remote sensing integration 基于SHAP和遥感整合的哈萨克斯坦洪灾高分辨率时空分析及驱动因素归因

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100783

Yixuan Liu , Alim Samat , Peijun Du , Jin Chen , Jilili Abuduwaili , Kaiyue Luo , Enzhao Zhu , Dana Shokparova

{"title":"High-resolution spatiotemporal analysis and driver attribution of floods in Kazakhstan using SHAP and remote sensing integration","authors":"Yixuan Liu , Alim Samat , Peijun Du , Jin Chen , Jilili Abuduwaili , Kaiyue Luo , Enzhao Zhu , Dana Shokparova","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The escalating impacts of global climate change and extreme weather have intensified flood risks worldwide, including in arid and semi-arid regions traditionally considered low-risk. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood events across Kazakhstan from 2000 to 2024 by integrating remote sensing (RS) with machine learning (ML). Using Google Earth Engine (GEE), we address data gaps and cloud interference through spatiotemporal fusion (STARFM), denoising, smoothing, and sample transferring techniques. In addition, this study incorporates the Time-Disaggregated Water Frequency (TWF) method, which enables the identification of water bodies with temporal variability, eliminates permanent water bodies, and distinguishes flood from non-flood conditions in seasonal water bodies, thereby enhancing the accuracy of flood reconstruction and enabling precise delineation of flood inundation areas. Landsat and MODIS imagery are combined to produce high-resolution flood distribution maps, while spectral similarity indicators guide the transfer of samples from the Global Flood Database. A range of spectral, texture, environmental, and socioeconomic features is extracted, with flood classification performed using random forest (RF) and attribution analysis conducted via XGBoost and SHAP. Results highlight a high flood risk in northern, southwestern, and western Kazakhstan, primarily driven by changes in precipitation (PRE), temperature (TEM), soil moisture (SM), and land use. Floods occur most frequently in spring — especially in March and April — due to snowmelt and extreme precipitation. The ML models achieve over 80 % classification accuracy, demonstrating their reliability. This work improves flood monitoring and provides essential insights for climate adaptation and targeted flood risk management in Kazakhstan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100783"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145926013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bridging community resilience and local planning for climate justice 衔接社区复原力和地方气候正义规划

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100776

Kelsea Best , Qian He , Aaron B. Flores , Donghwan Gu , Junia Howell , David R. Johnson , Yanjun Liao , Allison C. Reilly , Andrew Rumbach , Tamara Sheldon , A.R. Siders , Gabrielle Wong-Parodi , Rachel Young , Deb Niemeier

引用次数: 0

Critical science for the next decade of climate risk management 未来十年气候风险管理的关键科学

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100770

Meg Parsons , Johanna Nalau , Veruska Muccione , Maarten van Aalst , Suraje Dessai , Tess Doeffinger , Xinyu Fu , Toshihiro Hasegawa , Danial Khojasteh , Rahwa Kidane , Benjamin L. Preston , Nicholas P. Simpson , Anita Wreford , Katharine J. Mach

{"title":"Critical science for the next decade of climate risk management","authors":"Meg Parsons , Johanna Nalau , Veruska Muccione , Maarten van Aalst , Suraje Dessai , Tess Doeffinger , Xinyu Fu , Toshihiro Hasegawa , Danial Khojasteh , Rahwa Kidane , Benjamin L. Preston , Nicholas P. Simpson , Anita Wreford , Katharine J. Mach","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100770","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100770","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Escalating climate-related risks make climate risk management more important than ever. While research on climate risk management has generated substantial useful information on its potential, the practice of climate risk management has not yet fully operationalized this knowledge, and it has simultaneously revealed new challenges. Especially as momentum around climate action wanes in some contexts, research on climate risk management has crucial opportunities to inform and unleash proactive, effective climate adaptation. Here, we reflect on the evolution of climate risk management over time, the lessons learned, and key research and policy issues underpinning the future of the field. Through this collective perspective, we encourage submissions on a range of interlocking themes—adaptation decision support and finance, climate security and justice, emerging technologies and evaluation, and portfolios of action—which together promise to advance both the science and practice of climate risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100770"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A method for tracking national progress towards climate change adaptation 一种跟踪国家适应气候变化进展的方法

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100800

Tia Brullo , Jon Barnett , Elissa Waters , Sarah Boulter

{"title":"A method for tracking national progress towards climate change adaptation","authors":"Tia Brullo , Jon Barnett , Elissa Waters , Sarah Boulter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100800","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adaptation tracking is now an important means to characterise, report, and monitor progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change. The means and methods for adaptation tracking are challenging and diverse due to differing purposes and sectors and scales of analysis, difficulties in classifying activities as adaptation of one kind or another, and challenges in defining and measuring progress. Here we report on the approach and method used to develop the Australian Adaptation Database. With 900 adaptation activities coded, the database is a repository for learning from the efforts of others, helps to track progress in adaptation activities across all sectors and scales in Australia, and helps responsible authorities to meet reporting obligations. The paper describes the method to develop the database and focusses on an approach to assess progress in adaptation within and between sectors and jurisdictions. We propose adaptation progress is the degree to which adaptation activities move towards interventions that affect changes intended to reduce vulnerability. This approach enables adaptation stocktakes to infer progress from the nature of adaptation activities, with those that are closer to the ‘intervention’ stage being closer to reducing vulnerability than those that are precursors to intervention. Though the nature of adaptation makes all such exercises imperfect, the result, we propose, is a framework and method that serves the purposes of characterising, reporting, and monitoring progress towards adaptation within a country.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100800"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146188134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating heatwaves in a temperate climate: barriers to behavioural adaptation in Dutch urban areas 在温带气候中导航热浪：荷兰城市地区行为适应的障碍

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100794

Istiaque Ahmed, Marjolein van Esch, Ana Petrović, Frank van der Hoeven

{"title":"Navigating heatwaves in a temperate climate: barriers to behavioural adaptation in Dutch urban areas","authors":"Istiaque Ahmed, Marjolein van Esch, Ana Petrović, Frank van der Hoeven","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100794","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100794","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves are no longer rare anomalies in temperate cities; they are lived, negotiated, and unevenly endured. Yet behavioural adaptation—a vital first line of defence—remains underexplored. Drawing on a sequential mixed-methods design integrating in-depth interviews (N = 21) and a nationwide survey (N = 1,849) across Dutch urban density gradients, this study shows that behavioural adaptation is less a matter of individual choice than of social, structural, and spatial constraint. Homeowners leveraged their control over private spaces to adopt both active and passive technological adjustments, achieving higher adaptation scores. Tenants, constrained by housing tenure, disproportionately relied on cultural adjustments rooted in social ties and experiential knowledge. Residents of very highly urbanised areas reported higher indoor temperatures and demonstrated the lowest adaptation scores, revealing density-driven limits to coping capacity. Gender and household composition further influenced adaptive capacity, with women and multi-person households displaying consistently stronger responses. By centring behavioural adaptation, the study identifies key barriers and exposes the mechanisms through which adaptation inequality takes shape in temperate urban settings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100794"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing climate change impacts on military academies: a comparative analysis of the United States Military Academy and the South African Military Academy 评估气候变化对军事学院的影响：美国军事学院和南非军事学院的比较分析

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784

Mark Read , Hennie Smit , Ivan Henrico , Babalwa Mtshawu , Lesley Welman

{"title":"Assessing climate change impacts on military academies: a comparative analysis of the United States Military Academy and the South African Military Academy","authors":"Mark Read , Hennie Smit , Ivan Henrico , Babalwa Mtshawu , Lesley Welman","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change poses growing challenges to military institutions, particularly academies where training, education, and infrastructure are co-located. This study assesses how climate change may affect the United States Military Academy (USMA) at West Point and the South African Military Academy (SAMA) in Saldanha, focusing on implications for training activities, academic programmes, and infrastructure resilience. USMA, located in New York’s Hudson Highlands, is experiencing a warming Humid Continental climate with rising temperatures, stronger tropical cyclones, increased precipitation, and heightened flood risk. SAMA, situated on South Africa’s West Coast, faces a hotter and drier Mediterranean climate, with projected declines in rainfall and sustained water scarcity. Using descriptive climatic data and institutional information, the study compares the climate-related pressures likely to affect each academy over coming decades. The analysis shows that although the academies face distinct climatic trajectories, both will need to adapt training protocols, strengthen infrastructure, and integrate climate resilience into defence education. The findings underscore the importance of coordinated planning and proactive adaptation measures to sustain mission readiness and ensure that future military leaders are adequately prepared for climate-related operational and strategic challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100784"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What if farmers had seen it coming? The retrospective potential of extended-range forecasts in managing the 2018 drought in Norwegian agriculture 如果农民们预见到了它的到来呢？扩展范围预测在管理2018年挪威农业干旱方面的回顾性潜力

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100792

Manuel Hempel , Erik W. Kolstad

{"title":"What if farmers had seen it coming? The retrospective potential of extended-range forecasts in managing the 2018 drought in Norwegian agriculture","authors":"Manuel Hempel , Erik W. Kolstad","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate variability and extreme weather events pose substantial challenges to global agriculture, threatening food security and self-sufficiency. In Norway, these impacts are anticipated to intensify with climate change. Extended-range weather forecasts, which predict conditions several weeks ahead, have emerged as powerful tools for enhancing agricultural decision-making and climate risk management.</div><div>The 2018 drought in Norway, the most severe agricultural crisis in decades, starkly highlighted the sector’s vulnerability to climate risks. This study investigates the potential benefits of extended-range forecasts, which were not available to farmers during the drought. We focused on whether these forecasts could have accurately predicted the drought and how they might have been leveraged by the agricultural sector.</div><div>Our findings reveal a high user demand and forecast relevance; however, significant gaps in communication, interpretation, and decision-making capacity were evident. Even if they had had access to the forecasts, individual farmers would have faced limited options to avert low yields due to the lack of adaptive infrastructure like irrigation systems. Yet, at the organizational level, there was substantial potential to enhance crisis management through improved communication strategies and decision-making frameworks.</div><div>Investments in resilient agricultural practices and infrastructure, combined with these improved strategies, would enable the agriculture sector to better leverage extended-range forecasts, resulting in better crisis management and mitigation of future extreme weather events.</div><div>The broader implication is clear: integrating reliable climate forecasts into agricultural decision-making processes can enhance resilience, by improving preparedness for increasing climate threats, thereby helping to secure food self-sufficiency in Norway and beyond.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100792"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146038022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Extreme weather events and pathways to mental health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review 撒哈拉以南非洲极端天气事件和通往精神卫生结果的途径：系统回顾

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100797

G. Nduku Wambua , Julia F. Corvetto , Frederick Murunga Wekesah , Aditi Bunker , Nondumiso Mthiyane , Alberto Muanido , Vasco Cumbe , Evans Omondi , Xanthe Hunt , Collins Iwuji

{"title":"Extreme weather events and pathways to mental health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review","authors":"G. Nduku Wambua , Julia F. Corvetto , Frederick Murunga Wekesah , Aditi Bunker , Nondumiso Mthiyane , Alberto Muanido , Vasco Cumbe , Evans Omondi , Xanthe Hunt , Collins Iwuji","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has led to more frequent and intense extreme weather events (EWEs) globally, with sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) being disproportionately affected. Given the region’s socioeconomic vulnerability and strong reliance on agriculture for subsistence, EWEs have the potential to affect the local population’s mental health. The present systematic review synthesizes evidence on the impacts of EWEs on mental health in SSA, examining moderators and the pathways by which EWEs affect mental health, and identifying particularly vulnerable populations. In accordance with the PRISMA guidelines, we searched the PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases and grey literature sources for relevant publications up to June 2024. Of the 3242 initially identified articles, 15 peer-reviewed journal articles from seven countries met the inclusion criteria. Studies examined floods (n = 8), droughts (n = 7), and heavy rainfall (n = 1) as EWEs, and reported psychological distress, anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as mental health outcomes. Findings indicate that EWEs affect mental health through both direct pathways, reflecting immediate psychological trauma from exposure, and indirect pathways, operating through displacement, economic instability, and water and food insecurity. Moderators included protective factors such as social support and religion, as well as risk factors such as being an adolescent, being female, and being economically disadvantaged. There were few longitudinal studies, a limited examination of heatwaves, and a lack of culturally sensitive strategies for mental health support, indicating evidence gaps. As the incidence of EWEs increases across SSA, there is an urgent need for expanded research, improved health systems, and targeted interventions for vulnerable populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100797"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

China’s rural-urban climate education divide: addressing environmental justice in climate literacy 中国城乡气候教育鸿沟：在气候素养中解决环境正义问题

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100799

Joshua Ampofo, Jiacheng Li, Weiwei Zhu

{"title":"China’s rural-urban climate education divide: addressing environmental justice in climate literacy","authors":"Joshua Ampofo, Jiacheng Li, Weiwei Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100799","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2026.100799","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><div>China’s rapid urbanization has created unprecedented disparities in climate education between rural and urban populations, posing a critical environmental justice challenge with global implications.</div></div><div><h3>Objective</h3><div>This study investigates rural–urban disparities in climate education across China, examining implications for environmental justice and national climate preparedness.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>A convergent mixed-methods approach analyzed 2,847 participants (1,523 rural, 1,324 urban) across 12 provinces using standardized climate literacy assessments and 89 semi-structured interviews. Multilevel models employed restricted maximum likelihood estimation to account for the nested data structure.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>Substantial climate literacy disparities exist between rural (mean = 42.3/100, SD = 12.1) and urban populations (mean = 71.8/100, SD = 9.8, <em>p</em> < 0.001; Cohen’s <em>d</em> = 2.7). Rural areas have 73% lower digital access, 68% fewer qualified environmental educators, and 85% less curriculum integration (percentages relative to the urban baseline = 100%). Multilevel modeling revealed community-level factors (teacher qualifications, technology infrastructure, curriculum) explained substantial variance beyond rural–urban status (marginal <em>R<sup>2</sup></em> = 0.52 to 0.64). Qualitative analysis identified interconnected violations of justice across the distribution, recognition, and participation dimensions.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>China’s rural–urban climate education divide raises significant environmental justice concerns and presents barriers to national climate resilience. While a cross-sectional design limits causal inference, converging evidence indicates that systematic disparities warrant urgent policy intervention through phased reforms that address infrastructure, teacher capacity, and structural inequalities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100799"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate-adaptive prediction of wind erosion risks for earthen heritage under multi-scenario futures 未来多情景下土质遗产风蚀风险的气候适应性预测

IF 5 2区环境科学与生态学

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100763

Qiong Wang , Jun Xiao , Anrong Dang , Xiuyun Xu , Jingxiong Huang , Ruihua Zhang

{"title":"Climate-adaptive prediction of wind erosion risks for earthen heritage under multi-scenario futures","authors":"Qiong Wang , Jun Xiao , Anrong Dang , Xiuyun Xu , Jingxiong Huang , Ruihua Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100763","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100763","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Earthen heritage sites are vital components of global cultural assets, yet face intensifying wind erosion driven by more frequent extreme wind events. Accurate erosion prediction is critical to preserve structural integrity and guide climate-adaptive management under UNESCO’s climate action framework. However, current methods rely on simplified geometry models or limited wind simulations, producing insufficient spatial resolution and overlooking differential mass loss among components. Temporally, projections based on linear extrapolation from typical years neglect long-term, non-stationary trends. This study developed an integrated prediction framework combining centimeter-scale LiDAR modeling, high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and CMIP6 multi-scenario climate data. Applied to the representative Chinese earthen heritage site Xixia Imperial Tombs, the framework produces site-wide risk maps and identifies localized high-risk zones. Results quantify nonlinear erosion responses to wind speed gradients, extending conventional initiation thresholds with acceleration inflection points. Temporal resampling refines wind-speed resolution, producing annual projections of cumulative erosion metrics (mass, depth, volume) through 2100 under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. The intermediate SSP2–4.5 pathway shows higher interannual variability and greater mean cumulative erosion than the high-forcing SSP5–8.5 scenario, indicating elevated long-term degradation risk under moderate climate forcing. Both scenarios displayed wide uncertainty ranges, suggesting a substantial likelihood of extreme erosion outcomes beyond mean projections. By integrating high-precision simulation with scenario-sensitive climate data, this framework advances predictive modeling of climate-driven hazards in the built environment and supports resilient planning and conservation of earthen heritage in arid regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100763"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145658602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0