Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Expanding integrated protection motivation theory and theory of planned behavior: The role of source of influence in flood and typhoon risk preparedness intentions in Quezon Province, Philippines","authors":"Maria Rossana D. de Veluz ,&nbsp;Ardvin Kester S. Ong ,&nbsp;Anak Agung Ngurah Perwira Redi ,&nbsp;Renato R. Maaliw ,&nbsp;Pitz Gerald Lagrazon ,&nbsp;Charlotte N. Monetiro","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Philippines is a country that has a high risk of climate-related calamities. The most frequent natural hazard in the nation is believed to be typhoons, and countries that experience numerous typhoons are vulnerable to floods. Quezon, one of the country’s provinces located in the eastern part of the Philippines, has had this critical problem. To comprehend how the source of influence affects disaster preparedness behavior, this study incorporated and extended the integrated theories of protection motivation and planned behavior. A total of 525 people responded to an online survey with 45 modified adapted questions that was carried out in the municipalities of Quezon. According to the structural equation modeling, the latent variables, including family and community, media information, and prior experiences, are all reflective of the source of influence. Additionally, the source of influence has a significant and direct impact on perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, attitude toward behavior, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms. It also indirectly affects the intention to evacuate. This study could not only broaden our understanding of how to prepare for typhoons and floods, but it also offers guidance for planning and managing natural hazard mitigation and disaster risk preparedness in Quezon, Philippines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100706"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive capacity management in municipalities in the Semiarid region of Brazil: Application of a composite index","authors":"Yonara Claudia dos Santos ,&nbsp;Zoraide Souza Pessoa","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The balance between urban growth and global environmental and climate challenges, as well as their local implications, is a fundamental contemporary concern, and often neglected in government agendas at a local scale. The integration of these issues into urban and territorial planning is still incipient in the Brazilian context, especially in smaller cities and in regions such as the Semiarid region of Brazil, where socioeconomic challenges are particularly sensitive to climate impacts. This study diagnoses the adaptive capacity of local management in the Brazilian Semiarid region, revealing high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity that reflect inadequate integration of socio-environmental and climatic issues, as assessed through the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA). The method used is based on data from the Municipal Basic Information Survey (Munic/IBGE) and operates on a scale from 0 to 1, segmented into five strata corresponding to classification levels ranging from classification levels ranging from “very low” to “very high”. The “very high” stratum indicates a more critical scenario in terms of threats and vulnerabilities, while the “very low” stratum indicates deficiencies in risk management and adaptive capacity. IGCA scores ranged from 0.137 to 0.442, with 76% of municipalities classified as having low adaptive capacity. The operationalization is conducted through weighted variables and the additive approach of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using GIS software to map threats, vulnerabilities and adaptive management measures to climate change. The results obtained in 21 municipalities in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, reveal a high exposure to climate threats, particularly in relation to social vulnerability. This vulnerability is evident not only in the studied municipalities but likely throughout the region. Given this scenario of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, significant efforts are needed to improve the adaptation and resilience capacity of these regions, including a more integrated approach to climate risk management, strengthening local governance and raising awareness of the importance of integrating climate and environmental issues in government policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100696"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate","authors":"Zhiting Chen ,&nbsp;Kimberley Clare O’Sullivan ,&nbsp;Rachel Kowalchuk Dohig ,&nbsp;Nevil Pierse ,&nbsp;Terence Jiang ,&nbsp;Mylène Riva ,&nbsp;Runa Das","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the health risks associated with indoor overheating and the impacts of cooling energy poverty during summer is becoming increasingly urgent as anthropogenic climate change intensifies heatwave events in many places. We report on results from a cross-sectional postal survey undertaken in Summer 2021/2022, conducted in five regions of New Zealand that typically experience some of the highest temperatures nationally. The study revealed that energy poverty is significant issue during summer, with 43% of the respondents identifying cost as a cooling restriction. Indoor overheating commonly affected the health and wellbeing of participants, with 63% reporting adverse health outcomes. Households citing cost as a cooling restriction were significantly more likely to report adverse health outcomes. Renters and indigenous Māori households were disproportionately affected by indoor overheating and the associated health and energy inequities. These findings highlight the growing health risks from indoor heat exposure in warming climatesparticularly in temperate countries like New Zealand, where inhabitants and infrastructure are not adequately prepared to handle heat-related risks. Relying solely on energy-intensive active cooling exacerbates energy poverty and injustice, increasing residential energy demand. Policy interventions should focus on promoting passive, energy-efficient, and sustainable cooling strategies to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related health disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100698"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does livelihood risk matter in disaster preparedness? Insights from flood risk areas of rural China","authors":"Wei Liu ,&nbsp;Pengfei Qi ,&nbsp;Jie Xu ,&nbsp;Marcus Feldman ,&nbsp;Dingde Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Farmers in flood-risk areas are exposed to disruptions in their daily production and livelihood operations. However, disaster preparedness can reduce risk and minimize household losses, thereby increasing livelihood sustainability for farming families. Although sustainable livelihoods and disaster preparedness of farmers have been categorized, few studies have explored the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. This study examines survey data from 540 farming family households in the three counties Gaoxian, Jiajiang, and Yuechi, which are affected by floods. We consider four distinct types of livelihood risks faced by farmers and three categories of disaster preparedness in the study area and construct a Tobit regression model to test the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. The results show (1) a significant correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness among farmers; (2) health risk is positively correlated with farmers’ physical preparedness; (3) social risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ physical, knowledge and skills, and overall disaster preparedness; and (4) financial risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ overall disaster preparedness. Our findings may assist in disaster preparedness and in policy formulation pertaining to flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100705"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania","authors":"Jacob Emanuel Joseph ,&nbsp;K.P.C Rao ,&nbsp;Elirehema Swai ,&nbsp;Anthony M. Whitbread ,&nbsp;Reimund P. Rötter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100686"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nexus of climate change adaptation and household wealth in climate risk hotspots – Insights from rural farm households of Pakistan","authors":"Shangao Wang ,&nbsp;Panhwar Ghulam Mustafa ,&nbsp;Gershom Endelani Mwalupaso ,&nbsp;Zhou Li","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agricultural sector is a cornerstone of economic development, particularly in low-income countries where smallholder farming supports livelihoods and food security. However, the increasing unpredictability of climatic factors poses significant challenges, threatening its capacity to bolster smallholder farmers’ household wealth through food production. While climate adaptation measures have been widely promoted, there remains a notable lack of empirical evidence establishing the relationship between climate adaptation and household wealth. Addressing this critical research gap, this study examines the relationship between climate adaptation and household wealth among 400 wheat smallholder farmers in Sindh province, Pakistan. Using endogenous switching regression (ESR) and propensity score matching (PSM) for robustness, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT). The results consistently show that climate adaptation significantly increases per capita household wealth, primarily through enhanced crop production. Counterfactual analysis reveals that non-adopting households could have reduced poverty severity by 15% and extreme poverty by 17% had they adopted adaptation measures. These findings provide compelling empirical evidence for policymakers to prioritize adaptation support frameworks—such as subsidized inputs or training programs—which are indispensable for safeguarding food production, reducing climate vulnerability, and lifting smallholders out of poverty. By demonstrating the dual benefits of adaptation—wealth accumulation and poverty alleviation—this study underscores the urgency of scaling up climate-resilient agricultural practices as a key strategy for reducing vulnerability and fostering sustainable livelihoods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100704"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143807720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of climate change on household dietary diversity in Afghanistan","authors":"Jamshid Yolchi,&nbsp;Huaiyu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change adaptation policies and research have traditionally focused on dietary quantity, neglecting dietary quality, particularly in developing countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to identify how climate change affects household dietary diversity and whether the impacts are consistent across different food groups. To examine the impact of climate change on dietary diversity in Afghanistan, a climate change proxy variable (temperature) was created at the district level by calculating the difference from its long-term mean. Meanwhile, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) was obtained from three rounds of household survey data conducted between 2011 and 2017, which included information from 60,099 households. Negative binomial regression analysis reveals a positive association between climate change and HDDS. That is, higher temperatures would lead to the higher availability of diverse diets in Afghanistan. Interestingly, climate change appears to affect food groups heterogeneously. While staple food consumption frequency remains unaffected, non-staple food consumption increases with higher temperatures. The results remain consistent after incorporating precipitation and two lagged versions of temperature and precipitation into the model. Therefore, the climate adaptation policies of the government of Afghanistan should consider different policy implications for staple and non-staple foods. These findings have policy implications for achieving food security and climate change-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as SDG 2 (zero hunger) and SDG 13 (climate action).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100687"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of gender in firm-level climate change adaptation behaviour: Insights from small businesses in Senegal and Kenya","authors":"Kate Elizabeth Gannon ,&nbsp;Shaikh M.S.U. Eskander ,&nbsp;Antonio Avila-Uribe ,&nbsp;Elena Castellano ,&nbsp;Mamadou Diop ,&nbsp;Dorice Agol","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Literature on gender and climate change adaptation tends to propose that women are both especially vulnerable to climate change and especially valuable to climate change adaptation, but these ideas have been little considered in the context of adaptation within small businesses and have rarely been tested through quantitative empirical analysis. This paper responds to this gap within existing literature and explores how female representation in the ownership or management structures of micro and small businesses shapes firm-level adaptive capacity, as implied through adaptation behaviour. Using firm-level survey data from semi-arid regions of Senegal and Kenya, we employ a Poisson regression model to empirically investigate how female representation in ownership and management of micro and small businesses affects adoption of firm-level sustainable and unsustainable adaptation strategies, with increasing exposure to extreme weather events. Our results show that businesses with female leadership that faced a larger number of extreme events adopt more sustainable and fewer unsustainable strategies than those with only male leadership. We interpret this result recognising that unsustainable adaptation strategies, such as selling business assets, require a business to have access to business assets and resources and thus are an outcome of a business’ coping capacity. Consistent with literature, we then identify that adaptation assistance can mitigate some of the harmful effects of climate shocks and additionally support micro and small businesses with female leadership to adopt more adaptation strategies (both sustainable and unsustainable) – and to a greater extent than businesses with only male leadership. Results evidence the value and efficiency of developing an inclusive business enabling environment for adaptation that targets women entrepreneurs, not just for delivering on equitable climate justice agendas, but also for strategic upscaling of resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100699"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate extremes are critical to maize yield and will be severer in North China","authors":"Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Yan-Jun Shen ,&nbsp;Shui Yu ,&nbsp;Xiaolong Zhang ,&nbsp;Dengpan Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100710","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100710","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With climate change, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes have increased significantly, exerting remarkable impacts on agricultural production in China. Irrigation, as an efficient agricultural management approach to maintaining the crop yield, was widely but unevenly implemented in China. Elucidating the impacts of climate change on maize yield and the role of irrigation in mitigating the climate change impacts on maize yield is critical to enhance the resilience of the national food system. Here, the key growing period and the sensitive meteorological indicators to maize yield variation in two major maize producing regions of China were revealed using the multiple regression models. The results indicate that the reproductive growing period and the precipitation-related indicators are more prominent for the maize yield variation in the North China Plain, whereas in Northeast China Plain, the vegetative growing period and the temperature-related indices contribute more to the maize yield. Among all meteorological indicators, the heat degree days and the consecutive dry days are the most influential meteorological factors to maize yield, and the heat degree days are projected be increasing drastically in the future, bring more heat threats to the maize yield. Result show that agricultural irrigation could significantly mitigate the dependence of maize yields variation on climate change, the determination coefficients of climate indices on maize yield decreased by 0.10 and 0.15 for the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain as the irrigation intensity increased. Adaptable solutions concerning the impact of extreme climates and the construction of agricultural irrigation facilities should be taken into consideration to cope with climate change and ensure the food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100710"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143854384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resilience as a Gateway: Private foundations and the financialization of disaster assistance","authors":"Gaélane Wolff","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International aid, including contributions from private foundations, assumes a pivotal role within the neoliberal framework, particularly in its utilization of resilience as a strategy for adapting to disasters exacerbated by climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters necessitate innovative responses, and private foundations inhabit a unique space that straddles the realms of the public and private sectors, blurring the lines between them. The discourse surrounding these foundations aligns closely with the concept of resilience, which regards disaster survivors as agents capable of catalyzing their own transformation. The concept of resilience might lead us to believe that non-state actors working on the ground are motivated by a desire to empower individuals in the face of such calamities. Examining the intricate interplay between private foundations, resilience, and the neoliberal system allows for an exploration of how disasters, particularly those driven by climate change, are perceived as opportunities for development within a neoliberal society. This research endeavors to answer the question: <strong>How does the instrumentalization of resilience by private foundations contribute to the development of financialization in disaster assistance?</strong> To address this inquiry, a discourse analysis of 200 documents from the year 2000 to the present, originating from two private foundations actively involved in disaster assistance, was conducted. Approximately thirty semi-structured interviews complete this analysis. The theoretical framework of this paper is rooted in the critical post-structuralist approach and provides a critical examination of post-humanitarianism within the context of the adaptive conception of resilience within contemporary neoliberal societies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100707"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}