Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Risk archetypes for European airports: moving towards climate change adaptation","authors":"Esther Barrios-Crespo,&nbsp;Saúl Torres-Ortega,&nbsp;Pedro Díaz-Simal","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100717","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100717","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Critical infrastructures are potentially exposed elements to climate impacts, which implies consequences beyond the purely physical dimension, in the economic and social spheres. This study presents a multi-risk approach based on indicators that assesses multiple climate-related hazards, as well as the multiple dimensions of exposure and vulnerability, with European availability, under various climate change scenarios and time horizons. Based on this approach, an archetype-based critical infrastructure classification is proposed, which serves as a framework for designing adaptation strategies for these infrastructures. These archetypes facilitate the characterization of the different risk components —hazard, exposure, and vulnerability—individually, while maintaining a holistic perspective. Statistical and machine learning techniques are applied to the identification of patterns in the indicators defining the dimensions of risk and that characterize the risk archetypes. As a case study, this methodology is applied to airport infrastructures across Europe, resulting in an archetype-based classification that identifies 23 climate risk archetypes for European airports. The resulting archetypes not only enable the identification of analogous airports from a climate risk perspective but also highlight the primary sources of risk, serving as a valuable guide for adaptation decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100717"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144106092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Farmers’ climate change perceptions in central Colombia: A propensity score matching approach using protection motivation theory and psychological distance","authors":"Alexander Cano ,&nbsp;Bente Castro-Campos","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100720","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100720","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates how farmers’ experiences with extreme weather events, specifically landslides and droughts, shape their perceptions of climate change in central Colombia, and their implications for climate risk management. Using Protection Motivation Theory and psychological distance as frameworks, we surveyed 360 farmers in 2022–2023 to assess their perceptions of climate change severity, vulnerability, and proximity. To control for confounding factors, we employed propensity score matching, comparing farmers in villages affected by landslides and droughts with those in unaffected villages. Our findings reveal that while landslides do not significantly alter farmers’ perceptions, droughts heighten awareness of climate change, with statistically significant differences observed in 10 out of 16 perception categories. This suggests that the nature of extreme weather events plays a crucial role in shaping climate change perceptions. Notably, farmers affected by drought perceive climate change as more severe, feel more vulnerable, and report closer psychological distance to its impacts compared to those in landslide-affected areas. These results imply that climate risk management strategies should be tailored to the specific types of extreme weather events affecting a region. Furthermore, by comparing drought and landslide events, this study provides new insight into how different climatic shocks shape farmers’ perceptions, contributing to a more nuanced understanding of climate change adaptation. This research highlights how propensity score matching, by better balancing groups and reducing bias from confounding, offers a methodological improvement over conventional approaches in climate perception studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100720"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144288713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change risk perception as a catalyst for adaptive effect of ICT: The case in rural Eastern China","authors":"Yu Yang ,&nbsp;Yang Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiajun Zhou ,&nbsp;Yang Liu ,&nbsp;Linshan Lin ,&nbsp;Shijia Kang ,&nbsp;Gaofei Yang ,&nbsp;Johannes Sauer","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100697","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100697","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the mechanisms by which technological advancements like ICT influence adaptive actions is crucial for smallholder farmers confronting climate change. This study analyzes data from rural areas in China’s Yangtze River Delta to examine how ICT affects farmers’ adaptive investments. The findings reveal that ICT does not directly increase adaptive investments among smallholders. Instead, it indirectly influences these investments by enhancing farmers’ perceptions of climate risks, thereby addressing debates over ICT’s effectiveness in promoting adaptive actions. By categorizing smallholder farmers’ climate change risk perceptions into sixteen distinct subtypes and measuring them, we provide a understanding how ICT elevates risk awareness. This work extends the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC) by demonstrating that technological advancements influence climate change risk perception, expanding its scope from social discourse to include objective adaptive capacity. Practically, these findings underscore the critical role of risk perception in devising effective adaptation policies. By considering risk perception as a key factor in ICT policy formulation, policymakers can effectively enhance smallholders’ adaptive actions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100697"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expanding integrated protection motivation theory and theory of planned behavior: The role of source of influence in flood and typhoon risk preparedness intentions in Quezon Province, Philippines","authors":"Maria Rossana D. de Veluz ,&nbsp;Ardvin Kester S. Ong ,&nbsp;Anak Agung Ngurah Perwira Redi ,&nbsp;Renato R. Maaliw ,&nbsp;Pitz Gerald Lagrazon ,&nbsp;Charlotte N. Monetiro","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Philippines is a country that has a high risk of climate-related calamities. The most frequent natural hazard in the nation is believed to be typhoons, and countries that experience numerous typhoons are vulnerable to floods. Quezon, one of the country’s provinces located in the eastern part of the Philippines, has had this critical problem. To comprehend how the source of influence affects disaster preparedness behavior, this study incorporated and extended the integrated theories of protection motivation and planned behavior. A total of 525 people responded to an online survey with 45 modified adapted questions that was carried out in the municipalities of Quezon. According to the structural equation modeling, the latent variables, including family and community, media information, and prior experiences, are all reflective of the source of influence. Additionally, the source of influence has a significant and direct impact on perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, attitude toward behavior, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms. It also indirectly affects the intention to evacuate. This study could not only broaden our understanding of how to prepare for typhoons and floods, but it also offers guidance for planning and managing natural hazard mitigation and disaster risk preparedness in Quezon, Philippines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100706"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of social capital in strengthening community resilience against floods: A case study of Mumbai, India","authors":"Jaideep Visave ,&nbsp;Daniel P. Aldrich","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the role of social capital in shaping flood resilience within Mumbai’s Sahakar Nagar, a coastal community vulnerable to flooding. Through surveys of 100 residents, we find a positive correlation between trust in community members and the adoption of resilience strategies (r = 0.219, p &lt; 0.05). Trust in neighbors emerges as a key predictor of proactive coping (β = 1.23, p &lt; 0.001), seeking social support (β = 1.32, p &lt; 0.001), and positive reappraisal (β = 1.45, p &lt; 0.001). K-means clustering reveals three distinct community groups (“High Trust Proactive”, “Moderate Trust Networkers”, and “Low Trust Individualists”) exhibiting varying levels of social capital and resilience strategies, reflecting the community’s diverse socioeconomic context, with bimodal income peaks at INR 40,000 and INR 100,000. Social network analysis identifies 12 interconnected sub-communities, highlighting the importance of information hubs within the network. Our findings underscore the critical role of trust in fostering community resilience, suggesting that interventions aimed at building and strengthening trust can enhance flood preparedness and response in urban coastal communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100685"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does livelihood risk matter in disaster preparedness? Insights from flood risk areas of rural China","authors":"Wei Liu ,&nbsp;Pengfei Qi ,&nbsp;Jie Xu ,&nbsp;Marcus Feldman ,&nbsp;Dingde Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Farmers in flood-risk areas are exposed to disruptions in their daily production and livelihood operations. However, disaster preparedness can reduce risk and minimize household losses, thereby increasing livelihood sustainability for farming families. Although sustainable livelihoods and disaster preparedness of farmers have been categorized, few studies have explored the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. This study examines survey data from 540 farming family households in the three counties Gaoxian, Jiajiang, and Yuechi, which are affected by floods. We consider four distinct types of livelihood risks faced by farmers and three categories of disaster preparedness in the study area and construct a Tobit regression model to test the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. The results show (1) a significant correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness among farmers; (2) health risk is positively correlated with farmers’ physical preparedness; (3) social risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ physical, knowledge and skills, and overall disaster preparedness; and (4) financial risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ overall disaster preparedness. Our findings may assist in disaster preparedness and in policy formulation pertaining to flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100705"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive capacity management in municipalities in the Semiarid region of Brazil: Application of a composite index","authors":"Yonara Claudia dos Santos ,&nbsp;Zoraide Souza Pessoa","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The balance between urban growth and global environmental and climate challenges, as well as their local implications, is a fundamental contemporary concern, and often neglected in government agendas at a local scale. The integration of these issues into urban and territorial planning is still incipient in the Brazilian context, especially in smaller cities and in regions such as the Semiarid region of Brazil, where socioeconomic challenges are particularly sensitive to climate impacts. This study diagnoses the adaptive capacity of local management in the Brazilian Semiarid region, revealing high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity that reflect inadequate integration of socio-environmental and climatic issues, as assessed through the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA). The method used is based on data from the Municipal Basic Information Survey (Munic/IBGE) and operates on a scale from 0 to 1, segmented into five strata corresponding to classification levels ranging from classification levels ranging from “very low” to “very high”. The “very high” stratum indicates a more critical scenario in terms of threats and vulnerabilities, while the “very low” stratum indicates deficiencies in risk management and adaptive capacity. IGCA scores ranged from 0.137 to 0.442, with 76% of municipalities classified as having low adaptive capacity. The operationalization is conducted through weighted variables and the additive approach of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using GIS software to map threats, vulnerabilities and adaptive management measures to climate change. The results obtained in 21 municipalities in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, reveal a high exposure to climate threats, particularly in relation to social vulnerability. This vulnerability is evident not only in the studied municipalities but likely throughout the region. Given this scenario of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, significant efforts are needed to improve the adaptation and resilience capacity of these regions, including a more integrated approach to climate risk management, strengthening local governance and raising awareness of the importance of integrating climate and environmental issues in government policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100696"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate","authors":"Zhiting Chen ,&nbsp;Kimberley Clare O’Sullivan ,&nbsp;Rachel Kowalchuk Dohig ,&nbsp;Nevil Pierse ,&nbsp;Terence Jiang ,&nbsp;Mylène Riva ,&nbsp;Runa Das","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the health risks associated with indoor overheating and the impacts of cooling energy poverty during summer is becoming increasingly urgent as anthropogenic climate change intensifies heatwave events in many places. We report on results from a cross-sectional postal survey undertaken in Summer 2021/2022, conducted in five regions of New Zealand that typically experience some of the highest temperatures nationally. The study revealed that energy poverty is significant issue during summer, with 43% of the respondents identifying cost as a cooling restriction. Indoor overheating commonly affected the health and wellbeing of participants, with 63% reporting adverse health outcomes. Households citing cost as a cooling restriction were significantly more likely to report adverse health outcomes. Renters and indigenous Māori households were disproportionately affected by indoor overheating and the associated health and energy inequities. These findings highlight the growing health risks from indoor heat exposure in warming climatesparticularly in temperate countries like New Zealand, where inhabitants and infrastructure are not adequately prepared to handle heat-related risks. Relying solely on energy-intensive active cooling exacerbates energy poverty and injustice, increasing residential energy demand. Policy interventions should focus on promoting passive, energy-efficient, and sustainable cooling strategies to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related health disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100698"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying transformative decisions: A dual approach to adaptation pathways design using forward-exploration and backcasting","authors":"Noor ten Harmsen van der Beek ,&nbsp;Renske de Winter ,&nbsp;Esther van Baaren ,&nbsp;Ferdinand Diermanse ,&nbsp;Arno Nolte ,&nbsp;Marjolijn Haasnoot","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adaptation is needed to keep deltas and coastal zones liveable under changing climatic and socio-economic conditions. To date, adaptation is mostly small scale with incremental adaptation measures, while in some areas more fundamental transformative decisions are required in the future, such as changing objectives and land use. Here, we introduce an adaptation pathways method that uses forward-exploration and backcasting to study the impact of fundamental decisions on the solution space. For this, we extend the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) approach and refer to this as DAPP-Δ (DAPP-delta) with Δ representing the fundamental decisions. Following the traditional DAPP approach, we explore alternative sequences of adaptation measures to continue to achieve objectives under changing conditions. New to the method is the backcasting of critical implementation paths from different envisioned future states, including changes in land use. Additionally, we identify synergies and conflicts between the forward-looking pathways and backcasting implementation paths. We use the southwest of the Netherlands as an illustrative case study. In this region, multiple adaptation tipping points are projected due to sea-level rise and economic changes, while simultaneously large-scale investments in aging infrastructure are expected. The results show that the DAPP-Δ method a) helps to identify pivotal adaptation decisions that goes beyond incremental adaptation and includes transformative decisions; b) effectively reveals the risk of maladaptation; and c) illustrates the necessity to include multiple changes in the analysis, as they together determine investments in the area and with that the solution space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100716"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations","authors":"Douglas C. Jaks ,&nbsp;Ashish Shrestha ,&nbsp;Christopher M. Chini","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100718"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}