Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Climate change risk perception as a catalyst for adaptive effect of ICT: The case in rural Eastern China","authors":"Yu Yang ,&nbsp;Yang Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiajun Zhou ,&nbsp;Yang Liu ,&nbsp;Linshan Lin ,&nbsp;Shijia Kang ,&nbsp;Gaofei Yang ,&nbsp;Johannes Sauer","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100697","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100697","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the mechanisms by which technological advancements like ICT influence adaptive actions is crucial for smallholder farmers confronting climate change. This study analyzes data from rural areas in China’s Yangtze River Delta to examine how ICT affects farmers’ adaptive investments. The findings reveal that ICT does not directly increase adaptive investments among smallholders. Instead, it indirectly influences these investments by enhancing farmers’ perceptions of climate risks, thereby addressing debates over ICT’s effectiveness in promoting adaptive actions. By categorizing smallholder farmers’ climate change risk perceptions into sixteen distinct subtypes and measuring them, we provide a understanding how ICT elevates risk awareness. This work extends the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC) by demonstrating that technological advancements influence climate change risk perception, expanding its scope from social discourse to include objective adaptive capacity. Practically, these findings underscore the critical role of risk perception in devising effective adaptation policies. By considering risk perception as a key factor in ICT policy formulation, policymakers can effectively enhance smallholders’ adaptive actions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100697"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expanding integrated protection motivation theory and theory of planned behavior: The role of source of influence in flood and typhoon risk preparedness intentions in Quezon Province, Philippines","authors":"Maria Rossana D. de Veluz ,&nbsp;Ardvin Kester S. Ong ,&nbsp;Anak Agung Ngurah Perwira Redi ,&nbsp;Renato R. Maaliw ,&nbsp;Pitz Gerald Lagrazon ,&nbsp;Charlotte N. Monetiro","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Philippines is a country that has a high risk of climate-related calamities. The most frequent natural hazard in the nation is believed to be typhoons, and countries that experience numerous typhoons are vulnerable to floods. Quezon, one of the country’s provinces located in the eastern part of the Philippines, has had this critical problem. To comprehend how the source of influence affects disaster preparedness behavior, this study incorporated and extended the integrated theories of protection motivation and planned behavior. A total of 525 people responded to an online survey with 45 modified adapted questions that was carried out in the municipalities of Quezon. According to the structural equation modeling, the latent variables, including family and community, media information, and prior experiences, are all reflective of the source of influence. Additionally, the source of influence has a significant and direct impact on perceived vulnerability, perceived severity, attitude toward behavior, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms. It also indirectly affects the intention to evacuate. This study could not only broaden our understanding of how to prepare for typhoons and floods, but it also offers guidance for planning and managing natural hazard mitigation and disaster risk preparedness in Quezon, Philippines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100706"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of social capital in strengthening community resilience against floods: A case study of Mumbai, India","authors":"Jaideep Visave ,&nbsp;Daniel P. Aldrich","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the role of social capital in shaping flood resilience within Mumbai’s Sahakar Nagar, a coastal community vulnerable to flooding. Through surveys of 100 residents, we find a positive correlation between trust in community members and the adoption of resilience strategies (r = 0.219, p &lt; 0.05). Trust in neighbors emerges as a key predictor of proactive coping (β = 1.23, p &lt; 0.001), seeking social support (β = 1.32, p &lt; 0.001), and positive reappraisal (β = 1.45, p &lt; 0.001). K-means clustering reveals three distinct community groups (“High Trust Proactive”, “Moderate Trust Networkers”, and “Low Trust Individualists”) exhibiting varying levels of social capital and resilience strategies, reflecting the community’s diverse socioeconomic context, with bimodal income peaks at INR 40,000 and INR 100,000. Social network analysis identifies 12 interconnected sub-communities, highlighting the importance of information hubs within the network. Our findings underscore the critical role of trust in fostering community resilience, suggesting that interventions aimed at building and strengthening trust can enhance flood preparedness and response in urban coastal communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100685"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does livelihood risk matter in disaster preparedness? Insights from flood risk areas of rural China","authors":"Wei Liu ,&nbsp;Pengfei Qi ,&nbsp;Jie Xu ,&nbsp;Marcus Feldman ,&nbsp;Dingde Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Farmers in flood-risk areas are exposed to disruptions in their daily production and livelihood operations. However, disaster preparedness can reduce risk and minimize household losses, thereby increasing livelihood sustainability for farming families. Although sustainable livelihoods and disaster preparedness of farmers have been categorized, few studies have explored the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. This study examines survey data from 540 farming family households in the three counties Gaoxian, Jiajiang, and Yuechi, which are affected by floods. We consider four distinct types of livelihood risks faced by farmers and three categories of disaster preparedness in the study area and construct a Tobit regression model to test the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. The results show (1) a significant correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness among farmers; (2) health risk is positively correlated with farmers’ physical preparedness; (3) social risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ physical, knowledge and skills, and overall disaster preparedness; and (4) financial risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ overall disaster preparedness. Our findings may assist in disaster preparedness and in policy formulation pertaining to flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100705"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive capacity management in municipalities in the Semiarid region of Brazil: Application of a composite index","authors":"Yonara Claudia dos Santos ,&nbsp;Zoraide Souza Pessoa","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The balance between urban growth and global environmental and climate challenges, as well as their local implications, is a fundamental contemporary concern, and often neglected in government agendas at a local scale. The integration of these issues into urban and territorial planning is still incipient in the Brazilian context, especially in smaller cities and in regions such as the Semiarid region of Brazil, where socioeconomic challenges are particularly sensitive to climate impacts. This study diagnoses the adaptive capacity of local management in the Brazilian Semiarid region, revealing high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity that reflect inadequate integration of socio-environmental and climatic issues, as assessed through the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA). The method used is based on data from the Municipal Basic Information Survey (Munic/IBGE) and operates on a scale from 0 to 1, segmented into five strata corresponding to classification levels ranging from classification levels ranging from “very low” to “very high”. The “very high” stratum indicates a more critical scenario in terms of threats and vulnerabilities, while the “very low” stratum indicates deficiencies in risk management and adaptive capacity. IGCA scores ranged from 0.137 to 0.442, with 76% of municipalities classified as having low adaptive capacity. The operationalization is conducted through weighted variables and the additive approach of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using GIS software to map threats, vulnerabilities and adaptive management measures to climate change. The results obtained in 21 municipalities in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, reveal a high exposure to climate threats, particularly in relation to social vulnerability. This vulnerability is evident not only in the studied municipalities but likely throughout the region. Given this scenario of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, significant efforts are needed to improve the adaptation and resilience capacity of these regions, including a more integrated approach to climate risk management, strengthening local governance and raising awareness of the importance of integrating climate and environmental issues in government policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100696"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate","authors":"Zhiting Chen ,&nbsp;Kimberley Clare O’Sullivan ,&nbsp;Rachel Kowalchuk Dohig ,&nbsp;Nevil Pierse ,&nbsp;Terence Jiang ,&nbsp;Mylène Riva ,&nbsp;Runa Das","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the health risks associated with indoor overheating and the impacts of cooling energy poverty during summer is becoming increasingly urgent as anthropogenic climate change intensifies heatwave events in many places. We report on results from a cross-sectional postal survey undertaken in Summer 2021/2022, conducted in five regions of New Zealand that typically experience some of the highest temperatures nationally. The study revealed that energy poverty is significant issue during summer, with 43% of the respondents identifying cost as a cooling restriction. Indoor overheating commonly affected the health and wellbeing of participants, with 63% reporting adverse health outcomes. Households citing cost as a cooling restriction were significantly more likely to report adverse health outcomes. Renters and indigenous Māori households were disproportionately affected by indoor overheating and the associated health and energy inequities. These findings highlight the growing health risks from indoor heat exposure in warming climatesparticularly in temperate countries like New Zealand, where inhabitants and infrastructure are not adequately prepared to handle heat-related risks. Relying solely on energy-intensive active cooling exacerbates energy poverty and injustice, increasing residential energy demand. Policy interventions should focus on promoting passive, energy-efficient, and sustainable cooling strategies to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related health disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100698"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying transformative decisions: A dual approach to adaptation pathways design using forward-exploration and backcasting","authors":"Noor ten Harmsen van der Beek ,&nbsp;Renske de Winter ,&nbsp;Esther van Baaren ,&nbsp;Ferdinand Diermanse ,&nbsp;Arno Nolte ,&nbsp;Marjolijn Haasnoot","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adaptation is needed to keep deltas and coastal zones liveable under changing climatic and socio-economic conditions. To date, adaptation is mostly small scale with incremental adaptation measures, while in some areas more fundamental transformative decisions are required in the future, such as changing objectives and land use. Here, we introduce an adaptation pathways method that uses forward-exploration and backcasting to study the impact of fundamental decisions on the solution space. For this, we extend the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) approach and refer to this as DAPP-Δ (DAPP-delta) with Δ representing the fundamental decisions. Following the traditional DAPP approach, we explore alternative sequences of adaptation measures to continue to achieve objectives under changing conditions. New to the method is the backcasting of critical implementation paths from different envisioned future states, including changes in land use. Additionally, we identify synergies and conflicts between the forward-looking pathways and backcasting implementation paths. We use the southwest of the Netherlands as an illustrative case study. In this region, multiple adaptation tipping points are projected due to sea-level rise and economic changes, while simultaneously large-scale investments in aging infrastructure are expected. The results show that the DAPP-Δ method a) helps to identify pivotal adaptation decisions that goes beyond incremental adaptation and includes transformative decisions; b) effectively reveals the risk of maladaptation; and c) illustrates the necessity to include multiple changes in the analysis, as they together determine investments in the area and with that the solution space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100716"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania","authors":"Jacob Emanuel Joseph ,&nbsp;K.P.C Rao ,&nbsp;Elirehema Swai ,&nbsp;Anthony M. Whitbread ,&nbsp;Reimund P. Rötter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100686"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nexus of climate change adaptation and household wealth in climate risk hotspots – Insights from rural farm households of Pakistan","authors":"Shangao Wang ,&nbsp;Panhwar Ghulam Mustafa ,&nbsp;Gershom Endelani Mwalupaso ,&nbsp;Zhou Li","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agricultural sector is a cornerstone of economic development, particularly in low-income countries where smallholder farming supports livelihoods and food security. However, the increasing unpredictability of climatic factors poses significant challenges, threatening its capacity to bolster smallholder farmers’ household wealth through food production. While climate adaptation measures have been widely promoted, there remains a notable lack of empirical evidence establishing the relationship between climate adaptation and household wealth. Addressing this critical research gap, this study examines the relationship between climate adaptation and household wealth among 400 wheat smallholder farmers in Sindh province, Pakistan. Using endogenous switching regression (ESR) and propensity score matching (PSM) for robustness, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT). The results consistently show that climate adaptation significantly increases per capita household wealth, primarily through enhanced crop production. Counterfactual analysis reveals that non-adopting households could have reduced poverty severity by 15% and extreme poverty by 17% had they adopted adaptation measures. These findings provide compelling empirical evidence for policymakers to prioritize adaptation support frameworks—such as subsidized inputs or training programs—which are indispensable for safeguarding food production, reducing climate vulnerability, and lifting smallholders out of poverty. By demonstrating the dual benefits of adaptation—wealth accumulation and poverty alleviation—this study underscores the urgency of scaling up climate-resilient agricultural practices as a key strategy for reducing vulnerability and fostering sustainable livelihoods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100704"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143807720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Australian housing affordability trap – How environmental, institutional, and structural factors can immobilize Australian households in the face of extreme weather events – A case study on flooding","authors":"Julia Plass ,&nbsp;Jens O. Zinn","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100713","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With climate change a growing number of increasingly severe hazards such as floods and bushfires affect populated regions in Australia. As a result, insurance premiums rise, and hazard-prone regions might even become uninsurable. Using the example of floods, this article examines how under conditions of the Australian housing crisis these risks affect households unequally. After major floods, un- and underinsured households often lack the capacity to recover. At the same time, they become immobilized because they cannot afford to move out of regions at risk. Based on 26 semi-structured interviews with (re-) insurance, legal, financial and urban planning experts conducted in 2022, the article provides empirical insights into the under-researched interconnection of household immobilization and vulnerability to extreme weather events from an expert perspective. The experts identify four factors which combine in producing vulnerability and at the same time immobilizing people: location and urban planning, the privatization of risk, socio-economic factors as well as awareness and the distribution of information. Current political strategies address the challenge of moving people out of at-risk locations but do neither sufficiently address the housing and insurance situation nor how people’s personal attachment to a region affects their housing decision.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100713"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143882445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}