Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"The role of weather and climate information services to support in wildfire management in Northwestern Europe","authors":"H.A. Lambrechts ,&nbsp;C.R. Stoof ,&nbsp;M. del Pozo ,&nbsp;F. Ludwig ,&nbsp;S. Paparrizos","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate change intensifies, temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more frequent, leading to increased droughts and elevated wildfire risks. This trend is especially pronounced in with an emerging wildfire risk under climate change, including Northwestern Europe. This study evaluates the use and needs of climate information services (CIS) for supporting Integrated Fire Management in these regions. Employing a qualitative approach, an online survey was distributed to professional stakeholders in Northwestern Europe, focusing on their awareness and perception of preparedness for wildfires, their use of CIS, and their future needs for fire management.</div><div>Results indicate that while stakeholders are experiencing wildfires and although there is a high perception of preparedness for current wildfire conditions, their preparedness for future conditions is considerably lower. Most rely on short-term weather forecasts, yet there is a significant gap in the use and perceived need for long-term climate projections. Additionally, engagement with and awareness of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) are limited. The findings underscore the critical need for more detailed and locally relevant CIS that are salient, credible, and legitimate to foster proactive and adaptive management strategies. Enhancing stakeholder engagement and co-producing tailored CIS can contribute to improving prevention, preparedness, and resilience against the escalating threat of wildfires in Northwestern Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100672"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Artificial intelligence in support of weather warnings and climate adaptation","authors":"Tina-Simone Neset ,&nbsp;Katerina Vrotsou ,&nbsp;Lotta Andersson ,&nbsp;Carlo Navarra ,&nbsp;Fredrik Schück ,&nbsp;Magnus Mateo Edström ,&nbsp;Caroline Rydholm ,&nbsp;Clara Greve Villaro ,&nbsp;Kostiantyn Kucher ,&nbsp;Björn-Ola Linnér","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In October 2021, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) launched a novel national system for impact-based weather warnings, moving from the traditional format for meteorological, hydrological, and oceanographic warnings towards an assessment process that includes collaboration and consultation with regional stakeholders. For certain types of warnings, joint assessments of the potential impacts of weather events for a specific geographic area and time frame are made in collaboration with local and regional actors. As part of this new system, local and regional administrative efforts are made to create assessment-support documentation which are collated by practitioners at the municipal or organizational level, drawing on local knowledge, and subsequently compiled by the County Administrative Board. This process aims to support the collaborative decision-making processes ahead of the publication and in the evaluation of issued weather warnings.</div><div>This paper explores the potential of integrating long- and short-term perspectives in societal response to climate change impacts with focus on extreme weather events. We present a case of AI-based technology to support processes linked to the national system for impact-based weather warnings and its integration with local and regional climate adaptation processes. We explore opportunities to integrate an AI-based pipeline, employing AI-based image and text analysis of crowdsourced data, in the processes of the warning system, and analyse barriers and enablers identified by local, regional, and national stakeholders. We further discuss to what extent data and knowledge of historical extreme weather events can be integrated with local and regional climate adaptation efforts, and whether these efforts could bridge the divide between long-term adaptation strategies and short-term response measures related to extreme weather events. Thus, this study unfolds the existing and perceived barriers to this integration and discusses possible synergies and ways forward in risk management and climate adaptation practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100673"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures","authors":"Frank Venmans ,&nbsp;Ben Carr","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios. Reviewing expert elicitations, abatement costs of scenarios, learning rates of technologies, fossil fuel supply side dynamics and geoengineering, we argue that scenarios with emissions largely beyond current/stated policy scenarios and largely below current pledge scenarios are relatively unlikely. Based on this, we develop a literature-informed evaluation of the likelihoods of future temperature for use in Value at Risk stress tests in 2030, 2050 and 2100.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100605"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000226/pdfft?md5=5086bcb2b2a2895491c7217349a89e36&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000226-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140550342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring community heatwave resilience: A comprehensive framework and tool","authors":"Rubenstein Naomi ,&nbsp;Keating Adriana ,&nbsp;MacClune Karen ,&nbsp;Norton Rachel","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100662","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100662","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article presents the first comprehensive, multi-sector heatwave resilience measurement framework and associated tool, available for use at the community or city neighbourhood scale. The question of how to live in a rapidly urbanising, climate change impacted world with more frequent and intense heatwaves is more urgent than ever. Most cities and communities around the world are critically underprepared for the growing reality of heatwaves. This paper presents the system of systems that come together to generate heatwave risk and action in which can, in-turn, support community-level heatwave resilience: features of urban heatwave risk, heatwave vulnerabilities, and heatwave governance. We then present the heatwave version of the Climate Resilience Measurement for Communities: a systems-based approach for conceptualising and measuring disaster resilience. The framework was co-designed by researchers and practitioners and is based on the most widely applied community flood resilience measurement endeavor in the world. This is, to our knowledge, the only standardized and holistic, yet globally applicable, heatwave resilience measurement framework available.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100662"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142653604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A systematic review of urban heat island and heat waves research (1991–2022)","authors":"Sorin Cheval ,&nbsp;Vlad-Alexandru Amihăesei ,&nbsp;Zenaida Chitu ,&nbsp;Alexandru Dumitrescu ,&nbsp;Vladut Falcescu ,&nbsp;Adrian Irașoc ,&nbsp;Dana Magdalena Micu ,&nbsp;Eugen Mihulet ,&nbsp;Irina Ontel ,&nbsp;Monica-Gabriela Paraschiv ,&nbsp;Nicu Constantin Tudose","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100603","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Heat Waves (HWs) are very important research topics as they have a strong impact on society and their synergies are not enough understood. Urbanisation and global warming are dynamic processes that amplify the UHI intensity and the HWs, as well as their synergies. In this context, it is not a surprise to see that the number of publications tackling the linkages between UHI and HWs has constantly increased in the last decades. The development of new instruments and technologies allowed for consistent improvements in the temporal and spatial resolution of the data that boosted both the monitoring and analysis of the UHI-HW. The use of satellite remote sensing was very limited at the beginning of the analysed period and has become common practice in the last decade. Last, but not least, the interdisciplinary approaches, including physical, social, and economic aspects are more frequent and support the integrated development of the urban areas. Such changes are captured in this review including more than 400 titles, covering the period 1991–2022, aiming to foster further research on emergent climate change risks at urban scales and contextualise the future urban planning. This review provides a comprehensive, accessible and structured overview of the UHI-HW topic as a support for a better understanding of the gaps to be addressed by future research.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100603"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000202/pdfft?md5=c7b73ab5f87ac0debca36214e1853006&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000202-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140141414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying overheating risk in English schools: A spatially coherent climate risk assessment","authors":"Laura C. Dawkins ,&nbsp;Kate Brown ,&nbsp;Dan J. Bernie ,&nbsp;Jason A. Lowe ,&nbsp;Theodoros Economou ,&nbsp;Duncan Grassie ,&nbsp;Yair Schwartz ,&nbsp;Daniel Godoy-Shimizu ,&nbsp;Ivan Korolija ,&nbsp;Dejan Mumovic ,&nbsp;David Wingate ,&nbsp;Emma Dyer","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate adaptation decision making can be informed by a quantification of current and future climate risk. This is important for understanding which populations and/or infrastructures are most at risk in order to prioritise adaptation action. When assessing the risk of overheating in buildings, many studies use advanced building models to comprehensively represent the vulnerability of the building to overheating, but often use a limited representation of the meteorological (hazard) information which does not vary realistically in space. An alternative approach for quantifying risk is to use a spatial risk assessment framework which combines information about hazard, exposure and vulnerability to estimate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for risk to be compared across different locations. Here we present a novel application of an open-source CLIMADA-based spatial risk assessment framework to an ensemble of climate projections to assess overheating risk in ∼20,000 schools in England. In doing so, we demonstrate an approach for bringing together the advantages of open-source spatial risk assessment frameworks, data science techniques, and physics-based building models to assess climate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for the prioritisation of adaptation action in this vulnerable young population. Specifically, we assess the expected number of days each school overheats (internal operative temperature exceeds a high threshold) in a school-year based on three global warming levels (recent past, 2 °C and 4 °C warmer than pre-industrial). Our results indicate an increase in this risk in future warmer climates, with the relative frequency of overheating at internal temperatures in excess of 35 °C increasing more than at 26 °C. Indeed, this novel demonstration of the approach indicates that the most at-risk schools could experience up to 15 school days of internal temperature in excess of 35 °C in an average year if the climate warms to 2 °C above pre-industrial. Finally, we demonstrate how the spatial consistency in the output risk could enable the prioritisation of high risk schools for adaptation action.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100602"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000196/pdfft?md5=549ab4b4718dd60604382634e6610a7a&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000196-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140153824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “The sacred and climate change: Local perceptions from KaNyaka island in Mozambique” [Clim. Risk Manage. 42 (2023) 100564]","authors":"Marlino Eugénio Mubai ,&nbsp;Salomão Olinda Bandeira ,&nbsp;Dadivo José Combane ,&nbsp;Tim Daw ,&nbsp;Taís Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Elizabeth Maria Drury O'Neill ,&nbsp;Maria Mancilla Garcia","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100610","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100610","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100610"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000275/pdfft?md5=520554b5949910584e8c63452a87da50&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000275-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140840949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the spatial and temporal changes of compound disasters: A case study in Gaoping River, Taiwan","authors":"Tzu-Ling Chen,&nbsp;Ting-Xuan Chen,&nbsp;Jin-Cheng Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100617","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Global climate change has resulted in unusual climatic events of increasing intensity and frequency with severe impacts. An individual disaster is often coupled with another at the same time or in the form of a cascade. Major issues discussed in disaster management range from risks, environmental vulnerability, and resiliency, to the identification of human disaster-inducing land uses and their locations across a region, particularly in watersheds. The accurate identification of these disaster-inducing areas – that is, those locations of land use that may cause or contribute to making downstream impacts worse than they would be in the absence of such land uses – would be of assistance for disaster management agencies in order to mitigate disasters in advance. This study applies spatial autocorrelation statistics to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics associated with compound disasters. The study then utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to calculate runoff volume and sediment discharge to identify the locations of human disaster-inducing land uses. Our modeling outcomes show that there are various kinds of spatial and temporal clusters among compound disasters, and that certain areas are affected by similar disasters regularly while other locations might be the cause of these regular disasters.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100617"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000342/pdfft?md5=a97c168dacfc3e9e2bb197395c48d55a&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000342-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140924453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing climate risks from satellite imagery with machine learning: A case study of flood risks in Jakarta","authors":"Jeasurk Yang ,&nbsp;Donghyun Ahn ,&nbsp;Junbeom Bahk ,&nbsp;Sungwon Park ,&nbsp;Nurrokhmah Rizqihandari ,&nbsp;Meeyoung Cha","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100651","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100651","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Consistent and timely assessment of climate risks is crucial for planning disaster mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the local community level. This article presents an automatized method for monitoring climate risks with machine learning on satellite imagery, specially targeting riverine and coastal floods. Our research demonstrates that disaster-related risk measurement becomes more comprehensive and multi-faceted by including the following components: hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Our model first maps hazard-related risks with geo-spatial data, then extends the model to incorporate exposure and vulnerability. In doing so, we adopt a clustering-based supervised algorithm to sort satellite images to produce the climate risk scores at a grid-level. The developed model was tested over multiple ground-truth datasets on flood risks in the region of Jakarta, Indonesia. Results confirm that our model can assess climate risks in a granular scale and further capture potential risks in the marginalized areas (e.g., slums) that were previously hard to predict. We discuss how computational methods like ours can support humanitarian projects for developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100651"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000688/pdfft?md5=afa68c0566457d76eda0fe2ad1db09a8&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000688-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142312406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Key design considerations for flood risk pooling facilities at the sub-national level","authors":"Kamleshan Pillay","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100671","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100671","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Disaster or catastrophe risk pooling refers to the sharing of risk by entities facing common risk exposure to an individual hazard or set of hazards over a geographical area. Risk pooling members can gain risk diversification benefits such as lower premium costs while facilities based on parametric insurance policies are able to provide timely post-disaster payouts to members. The topic of sub-national catastrophe risk pools is relatively unexplored. Sub-national risk pools are advantageous as they can overcome politicised issues of compromised sovereignty and joint decision-making while enhancing insurance access for smaller, rural sub-national authorities. This research represents a starting point on design considerations for developing a sub-national flood risk pool (SNFRP). The operation of an SNFRP may result in greater spatial correlation. This may affect the financial stability of SNFRPs or diminish the risk diversification benefits over time. The balancing of fully risk-based pricing and affordability is also likely to be a significant challenge for SNFRPs, especially those operating in emerging and developing economies (EMDE). Means-based subsidies can overcome this challenge; however, donor access may be limited. In addition to donor partnerships, SNFRPs require engagements with reinsurers and national government actors to assist with risk transfer and seed capitalisation, respectively. In EMDEs, an SNFRP focused on response and relief will likely be based on parametric insurance policies. Issues such as index selection, geographical basis risk, and data and modelling needs must be carefully considered during the design of flood parametric insurance policies. Geographic basis risk may be amplified in an SNFRP operating at smaller spatial scales as flood events are not restricted to the administrative boundaries of sub-national authorities. Other issues that could influence the implementation of a sub-national facility include gaining political buy-in; access to reinsurance markets; and risk reduction incentivisation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100671"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}