Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"A systematic review of urban heat island and heat waves research (1991–2022)","authors":"Sorin Cheval ,&nbsp;Vlad-Alexandru Amihăesei ,&nbsp;Zenaida Chitu ,&nbsp;Alexandru Dumitrescu ,&nbsp;Vladut Falcescu ,&nbsp;Adrian Irașoc ,&nbsp;Dana Magdalena Micu ,&nbsp;Eugen Mihulet ,&nbsp;Irina Ontel ,&nbsp;Monica-Gabriela Paraschiv ,&nbsp;Nicu Constantin Tudose","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100603","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Heat Waves (HWs) are very important research topics as they have a strong impact on society and their synergies are not enough understood. Urbanisation and global warming are dynamic processes that amplify the UHI intensity and the HWs, as well as their synergies. In this context, it is not a surprise to see that the number of publications tackling the linkages between UHI and HWs has constantly increased in the last decades. The development of new instruments and technologies allowed for consistent improvements in the temporal and spatial resolution of the data that boosted both the monitoring and analysis of the UHI-HW. The use of satellite remote sensing was very limited at the beginning of the analysed period and has become common practice in the last decade. Last, but not least, the interdisciplinary approaches, including physical, social, and economic aspects are more frequent and support the integrated development of the urban areas. Such changes are captured in this review including more than 400 titles, covering the period 1991–2022, aiming to foster further research on emergent climate change risks at urban scales and contextualise the future urban planning. This review provides a comprehensive, accessible and structured overview of the UHI-HW topic as a support for a better understanding of the gaps to be addressed by future research.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000202/pdfft?md5=c7b73ab5f87ac0debca36214e1853006&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000202-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140141414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying overheating risk in English schools: A spatially coherent climate risk assessment","authors":"Laura C. Dawkins ,&nbsp;Kate Brown ,&nbsp;Dan J. Bernie ,&nbsp;Jason A. Lowe ,&nbsp;Theodoros Economou ,&nbsp;Duncan Grassie ,&nbsp;Yair Schwartz ,&nbsp;Daniel Godoy-Shimizu ,&nbsp;Ivan Korolija ,&nbsp;Dejan Mumovic ,&nbsp;David Wingate ,&nbsp;Emma Dyer","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Climate adaptation decision making can be informed by a quantification of current and future climate risk. This is important for understanding which populations and/or infrastructures are most at risk in order to prioritise adaptation action. When assessing the risk of overheating in buildings, many studies use advanced building models to comprehensively represent the vulnerability of the building to overheating, but often use a limited representation of the meteorological (hazard) information which does not vary realistically in space. An alternative approach for quantifying risk is to use a spatial risk assessment framework which combines information about hazard, exposure and vulnerability to estimate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for risk to be compared across different locations. Here we present a novel application of an open-source CLIMADA-based spatial risk assessment framework to an ensemble of climate projections to assess overheating risk in ∼20,000 schools in England. In doing so, we demonstrate an approach for bringing together the advantages of open-source spatial risk assessment frameworks, data science techniques, and physics-based building models to assess climate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for the prioritisation of adaptation action in this vulnerable young population. Specifically, we assess the expected number of days each school overheats (internal operative temperature exceeds a high threshold) in a school-year based on three global warming levels (recent past, 2 °C and 4 °C warmer than pre-industrial). Our results indicate an increase in this risk in future warmer climates, with the relative frequency of overheating at internal temperatures in excess of 35 °C increasing more than at 26 °C. Indeed, this novel demonstration of the approach indicates that the most at-risk schools could experience up to 15 school days of internal temperature in excess of 35 °C in an average year if the climate warms to 2 °C above pre-industrial. Finally, we demonstrate how the spatial consistency in the output risk could enable the prioritisation of high risk schools for adaptation action.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000196/pdfft?md5=549ab4b4718dd60604382634e6610a7a&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000196-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140153824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures","authors":"Frank Venmans ,&nbsp;Ben Carr","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100605","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios. Reviewing expert elicitations, abatement costs of scenarios, learning rates of technologies, fossil fuel supply side dynamics and geoengineering, we argue that scenarios with emissions largely beyond current/stated policy scenarios and largely below current pledge scenarios are relatively unlikely. Based on this, we develop a literature-informed evaluation of the likelihoods of future temperature for use in Value at Risk stress tests in 2030, 2050 and 2100.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000226/pdfft?md5=5086bcb2b2a2895491c7217349a89e36&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000226-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140550342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “The sacred and climate change: Local perceptions from KaNyaka island in Mozambique” [Clim. Risk Manage. 42 (2023) 100564]","authors":"Marlino Eugénio Mubai ,&nbsp;Salomão Olinda Bandeira ,&nbsp;Dadivo José Combane ,&nbsp;Tim Daw ,&nbsp;Taís Gonzalez ,&nbsp;Elizabeth Maria Drury O'Neill ,&nbsp;Maria Mancilla Garcia","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100610","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100610","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000275/pdfft?md5=520554b5949910584e8c63452a87da50&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000275-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140840949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Patterns of hurricane induced displacement in The Bahamas: Building equitable resilience in small island developing states","authors":"Stacy-ann Robinson","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The extent and severity of disaster displacement in small island developing states (SIDS) often go unreported or underreported in global assessments due to the total number of affected people falling below established thresholds. Additionally, post-disaster assessments prepared by various international relief agencies often present conflicting evidence, and largely do not offer substantial insights into national and subnational spatial and temporal patterns of displacement, particularly with respect to the disproportionate risk that certain localities, communities and populations face over time. This article is a case study of hurricane induced displacement in a Caribbean SIDS – The Bahamas. It triangulates data from a publicly-available global disaster database, weather and post-disaster reports from national government departments and agencies, and newspaper articles. Its qualitative-dominant synthesis represents the best available evidence of hurricane risk across the archipelago between 2004 and 2019, organized according to hazard (winds, storm surge, flooding), exposure (people, livelihoods, assets etc. adversely affected), and vulnerability (the propensity or predisposition for adverse impacts). It finds that 11 hurricanes across three periods caused displacement in one or more of the 17 major islands. In identifying the emerging spatial and temporal patterns, it proposes two alternative core-periphery models for The Bahamas. These models not only provide a more accurate account of the islands’ exposure and sensitivity to hurricanes, but also highlight the geographical factors that should be considered as the basis for future plans, actions, strategies or policies that seek to build equitable resilience to these and other climate-amplified hydrometeorological events in SIDS.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000512/pdfft?md5=59d01340561b1fc4f1b164d419091b46&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000512-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141577545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing climate risks from satellite imagery with machine learning: A case study of flood risks in Jakarta","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100651","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100651","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Consistent and timely assessment of climate risks is crucial for planning disaster mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the local community level. This article presents an automatized method for monitoring climate risks with machine learning on satellite imagery, specially targeting riverine and coastal floods. Our research demonstrates that disaster-related risk measurement becomes more comprehensive and multi-faceted by including the following components: hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Our model first maps hazard-related risks with geo-spatial data, then extends the model to incorporate exposure and vulnerability. In doing so, we adopt a clustering-based supervised algorithm to sort satellite images to produce the climate risk scores at a grid-level. The developed model was tested over multiple ground-truth datasets on flood risks in the region of Jakarta, Indonesia. Results confirm that our model can assess climate risks in a granular scale and further capture potential risks in the marginalized areas (e.g., slums) that were previously hard to predict. We discuss how computational methods like ours can support humanitarian projects for developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000688/pdfft?md5=afa68c0566457d76eda0fe2ad1db09a8&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000688-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142312406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-designing a just resilience balance scorecard with experts in islands and coastal cities","authors":"Priscila Carvalho,&nbsp;Catalina Spataru","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2023.100577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2023.100577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The growing focus on enhancing resilience in international humanitarian communities and vulnerable regions underscores the need for advancing theoretical and empirical tools. This research introduces a balance scorecard co-developed with users to monitor justice in disaster risk reduction and resilience (DR3) with a specific emphasis on floods, droughts and heatwaves. The goal is facilitating the integration of risk reduction, climate adaptation, and sustainability into development planning across various locations. The participatory design of the balance scorecard engages 71 stakeholders in vulnerable emerging market economies in the Global South. We take a nexus approach towards critically linked resources (water, energy, land, food, materials), global agendas (Climate Change Adaptation, Sustainable Development Goals and Sendai Framework), vulnerability factors (hazard, exposure and capabilities) and environmental justice dimensions (distribution, participation, capabilities and recognition). Stakeholders confirm the findings from literature that disaster risk governance tends to be more responsive than preventive. The research contributes by introducing temporal dimensions into the balance scorecard, covering anticipation, assessment, prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. This enhances the granularity of pre-emergency phases in risk management, enabling a dynamic analysis of justice considerations given the unique challenges faced by different communities at each stage of the risk management cycle.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096323001031/pdfft?md5=86b8c9d941782290c1d44e8c451692d6&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096323001031-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138532757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-criteria decision approach for climate adaptation of cultural resources along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States: Application of AHP method","authors":"Abu SMG Kibria ,&nbsp;Erin Seekamp ,&nbsp;Xiao Xiao ,&nbsp;Soupy Dalyander ,&nbsp;Mitchell Eaton","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100587","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100587","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were then merged into three categories: 1) Maximize retention of historic character and condition (HCC); 2) Foster heritage awareness (HA); and 3) Maximize financial benefits (FB). We facilitated two AHP exercise sessions, both individually and in groups, to seek consensus on the relative importance of the objectives. The AHP process created a space for stakeholders (government agencies and local citizens) to consider and present arguments that we used to contextualize their trade-offs between the objectives. The stakeholders' top priority was to maximize the HCC. This objective was prioritized more than HA and FB in the individual trade-off choices, while HA was given nearly equal priority to FB. The consensus priority vectors of two management objectives (HCC and HA) differ significantly from FB, but the difference between HCC and HA is slight and not statistically different. FB and HA had larger changes in consensus priority vectors among the three objectives relative to individual priority vectors. For HCC, the difference between individual and consensus priority vectors was the smallest and nearly equal. Moreover, very high levels of consistency were found in consensus priority trade-off discussions and AHP application. Our research highlights the advantage of using a two-step AHP process in climate adaptation planning of vulnerable resources to enhance robustness in decision making. Coupling this approach with future efforts to develop management priorities would help estimate indices to determine the order in which adaptation treatments are applied to vulnerable cultural resources.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000044/pdfft?md5=9d30bbe3eda3578b6fd3fa5bb8b151d7&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000044-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139714421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Disparities between climate change facts and farmer’s awareness and perception in an arid region: A case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River Basin in northwest China","authors":"Benli Liu ,&nbsp;Wanyue Peng ,&nbsp;Yunhua Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100588","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100588","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Arid areas are sensitive and vulnerable to climate change and may face more climate risks in the future under the background of global warming. The adaptability of society to future climate change impacts relies heavily on the awareness and perception of local populations. This study focuses on the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River, which is the second-largest inland river in China, and examine the temperature and precipitation changes from 1981 to 2020, employing the Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis method. The local farmers and herdsmen were interviewed, and their variations in awareness and perception regarding climate change were assessed. The results show that local residents are highly sensitive to climate warming but not to precipitation increases, indicating that the communities faces substantial constraints imposed by limited water resources. Residents of the downstream desert area feel a wetter climate than those of the mountain and oasis areas in the middle reach, suggesting a greater water scarcity pressure in the latter. The increased allocation of ecological water to the downstream portion of the Heihe river, as implemented by the “97″ water distribution plan in 2000, may be a contributing factor to this phenomenon. The disparities in the fact and residents’ awareness and perception of climate change are different among the mountainous, oasis, and desert regions, which are influenced by regional differences in climate change, agricultural production conditions, and water policies. The government should consider these factors when formulating water policies to ensure successful and balanced development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000056/pdfft?md5=391720232dbf7d3bf146c0e565ac51b6&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000056-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139919778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of outdoor heat adaptation on indoor thermal conditions – Combining microscale urban climate and building performance simulation","authors":"Christoph Schünemann ,&nbsp;Tim Felix Kriesten ,&nbsp;Uta Moderow ,&nbsp;Astrid Ziemann","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To what extent can outdoor heat adaptation measures in urban districts help to reduce high indoor temperatures in buildings and thus enhance indoor thermal conditions? To answer this question microscale meteorological simulation (MMS) and building performance simulation (BPS) are combined in a model chain approach. Two existing residential German districts with different urban designs are modelled in the MMS tool ENVI-met. For both districts, a representative residential building (one from the Wilhelminian period and one large panel construction type) is modelled using the BPS tool IDA-ICE. Different scenarios of heat adaptation measures are applied to analyse how changes in urban and building design (e.g. white (cool) roofs (high albedo), white traffic areas (high albedo), intensive green roofs, urban trees, facade insulation or facade greening) affect outdoor and indoor temperatures. The MMS results highlight that the district from the Wilhelminian period is less heat resilient and that the efficacy of heat adaptation measures on heat reduction in open space depends on the urban design and the daytime. Regarding the efficacy of heat adaptation measures on indoor thermal conditions, our findings indicate that the larger share of the indoor cooling effect is not caused by the outdoor air temperature reduction by the outdoor heat adaptation measures but by the change of the building physics in the BPS model (e.g. changing the surface reflectance of the white roofs). White roofs and intensive green roofs show the largest cooling effect by reducing the operative room temperature by more than 1 Kelvin. Our findings also demonstrate that facade insulation can act as both, climate adaptation and mitigation measures.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000329/pdfft?md5=1cc41bd0813e2c7bbb3232470132b1d7&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000329-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140950056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}