Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Communicating the risk of erosion: the effects of map-based communication on risk perception and affect","authors":"Naud Aude ,&nbsp;Navarro Oscar ,&nbsp;Chotard Manon ,&nbsp;Juigner Martin ,&nbsp;Robin Marc ,&nbsp;Chadenas Céline ,&nbsp;Fleury-Bahi Ghozlane","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100738","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100738","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study firstly aims to understand the impacts of map representations of coastal erosion on risk perception and affects of lay citizens. Secondly, it aims to study the effect of differing design of cartographic features on observation and interpretation of the message conveyed by different maps. Seven maps were presented to the participants (N = 50), varying according endogenous (abstraction, regalian cartridge) and exogenous characteristics (background, colours). A questionnaire interrogated risk perception and affect before and after observation, while eye-tracking data were recorded during the observation of each map. This experiment shows that communicating erosion risk by maps reduces perceived knowledge of risk but also reduces fear of the risk. The abstraction level significantly impacts observation patterns: correlation maps seem to guide visual attention in a more relevant way and to convey the message more clearly and effectively than other types of maps. But there is no influence of the other characteristics even if interviews show that colours seem to influence the message interpretation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100738"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental justice lens as a necessity and an opportunity in relocation: The case of the Noordwaard and the Eferding Basin","authors":"Chloé ten Brink ,&nbsp;Idowu Ajibade ,&nbsp;Caroline Zickgraf","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100740","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100740","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental relocation presents a form of risk management that requires organized movement of communities but are complex to carry out and can have inequitable results. A careful examination of the ethical dimensions of relocation from planning to implementation to outcomes offers an avenue for understanding and addressing potential injustices. Using a deductive environmental justice framework, we analyzed two compensation-based relocations, also understood as buyouts: the 2013 Danube flood relocation in Austria’s Eferding Basin and the Noordwaard de-poldering in the Netherlands’ Room for the River program. We combined document analysis (n = 62) and semi-structured interviews (n = 20) to assess justice concerns, focusing on distributive, procedural, and ecological dimensions. Distributive justice was primarily addressed through financial compensation, offering 100 % market value in the Noordwaard and 80 % in the Eferding Basin, but non-monetary considerations were relatively neglected. Procedural justice, particularly transparency and citizen participation, were insufficient. Considerations of ecological justice were absent in the Eferding Basin but the Noordwaard’s use of nature-based solutions and prioritization of spatial quality led to multiple environmental benefits. Overall, this paper argues that justice should not be viewed simply as a criterion to be fulfilled, but rather as a guiding principle for addressing the broader, short and long-term impacts, and well-being related to relocation. By adopting this perspective, justice can be understood as an opportunity for positive transformation, allowing environmental relocation to be framed as a process with the potential for meaningful, beneficial change rather than solely a response to current or future flood risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100740"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144890460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of social capital in strengthening community resilience against floods: A case study of Mumbai, India","authors":"Jaideep Visave ,&nbsp;Daniel P. Aldrich","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the role of social capital in shaping flood resilience within Mumbai’s Sahakar Nagar, a coastal community vulnerable to flooding. Through surveys of 100 residents, we find a positive correlation between trust in community members and the adoption of resilience strategies (r = 0.219, p &lt; 0.05). Trust in neighbors emerges as a key predictor of proactive coping (β = 1.23, p &lt; 0.001), seeking social support (β = 1.32, p &lt; 0.001), and positive reappraisal (β = 1.45, p &lt; 0.001). K-means clustering reveals three distinct community groups (“High Trust Proactive”, “Moderate Trust Networkers”, and “Low Trust Individualists”) exhibiting varying levels of social capital and resilience strategies, reflecting the community’s diverse socioeconomic context, with bimodal income peaks at INR 40,000 and INR 100,000. Social network analysis identifies 12 interconnected sub-communities, highlighting the importance of information hubs within the network. Our findings underscore the critical role of trust in fostering community resilience, suggesting that interventions aimed at building and strengthening trust can enhance flood preparedness and response in urban coastal communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100685"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The correlates of climate change concern in Guatemala","authors":"Ludovico Feoli ,&nbsp;Moisés Arce ,&nbsp;Tofigh Maboudi ,&nbsp;Todd Eisenstadt ,&nbsp;Felipe Girón","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100747","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100747","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change concern is believed to promote environmentally friendly behavior and the support of ameliorative environmental policies. Understanding the causes of this concern is therefore a precondition for its mobilization in favor of ameliorative environmental practices. This paper leverages empirical findings from a nationally representative survey to explore the correlates of climate change concern in Guatemala. It finds that direct and indirect experiences with climate impacts are the main correlates of climate change concern. Low levels of public trust and a sense of agency in reacting to disasters also contribute to concern levels. Measures taken to increase the linkage of weather impacts and anthropogenic actions to climate change, and to foster a sense of climate agency in citizens, can help highly vulnerable countries like Guatemala confront the challenges of climate change by contributing to create conditions that are more conducive to pro-environmental behavior and policy change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100747"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145109520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does livelihood risk matter in disaster preparedness? Insights from flood risk areas of rural China","authors":"Wei Liu ,&nbsp;Pengfei Qi ,&nbsp;Jie Xu ,&nbsp;Marcus Feldman ,&nbsp;Dingde Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100705","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Farmers in flood-risk areas are exposed to disruptions in their daily production and livelihood operations. However, disaster preparedness can reduce risk and minimize household losses, thereby increasing livelihood sustainability for farming families. Although sustainable livelihoods and disaster preparedness of farmers have been categorized, few studies have explored the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. This study examines survey data from 540 farming family households in the three counties Gaoxian, Jiajiang, and Yuechi, which are affected by floods. We consider four distinct types of livelihood risks faced by farmers and three categories of disaster preparedness in the study area and construct a Tobit regression model to test the correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness. The results show (1) a significant correlation between livelihood risk and disaster preparedness among farmers; (2) health risk is positively correlated with farmers’ physical preparedness; (3) social risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ physical, knowledge and skills, and overall disaster preparedness; and (4) financial risk is negatively correlated with farmers’ overall disaster preparedness. Our findings may assist in disaster preparedness and in policy formulation pertaining to flood risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100705"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Adaptive capacity management in municipalities in the Semiarid region of Brazil: Application of a composite index","authors":"Yonara Claudia dos Santos ,&nbsp;Zoraide Souza Pessoa","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100696","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The balance between urban growth and global environmental and climate challenges, as well as their local implications, is a fundamental contemporary concern, and often neglected in government agendas at a local scale. The integration of these issues into urban and territorial planning is still incipient in the Brazilian context, especially in smaller cities and in regions such as the Semiarid region of Brazil, where socioeconomic challenges are particularly sensitive to climate impacts. This study diagnoses the adaptive capacity of local management in the Brazilian Semiarid region, revealing high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity that reflect inadequate integration of socio-environmental and climatic issues, as assessed through the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA). The method used is based on data from the Municipal Basic Information Survey (Munic/IBGE) and operates on a scale from 0 to 1, segmented into five strata corresponding to classification levels ranging from classification levels ranging from “very low” to “very high”. The “very high” stratum indicates a more critical scenario in terms of threats and vulnerabilities, while the “very low” stratum indicates deficiencies in risk management and adaptive capacity. IGCA scores ranged from 0.137 to 0.442, with 76% of municipalities classified as having low adaptive capacity. The operationalization is conducted through weighted variables and the additive approach of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using GIS software to map threats, vulnerabilities and adaptive management measures to climate change. The results obtained in 21 municipalities in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, reveal a high exposure to climate threats, particularly in relation to social vulnerability. This vulnerability is evident not only in the studied municipalities but likely throughout the region. Given this scenario of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, significant efforts are needed to improve the adaptation and resilience capacity of these regions, including a more integrated approach to climate risk management, strengthening local governance and raising awareness of the importance of integrating climate and environmental issues in government policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100696"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate","authors":"Zhiting Chen ,&nbsp;Kimberley Clare O’Sullivan ,&nbsp;Rachel Kowalchuk Dohig ,&nbsp;Nevil Pierse ,&nbsp;Terence Jiang ,&nbsp;Mylène Riva ,&nbsp;Runa Das","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the health risks associated with indoor overheating and the impacts of cooling energy poverty during summer is becoming increasingly urgent as anthropogenic climate change intensifies heatwave events in many places. We report on results from a cross-sectional postal survey undertaken in Summer 2021/2022, conducted in five regions of New Zealand that typically experience some of the highest temperatures nationally. The study revealed that energy poverty is significant issue during summer, with 43% of the respondents identifying cost as a cooling restriction. Indoor overheating commonly affected the health and wellbeing of participants, with 63% reporting adverse health outcomes. Households citing cost as a cooling restriction were significantly more likely to report adverse health outcomes. Renters and indigenous Māori households were disproportionately affected by indoor overheating and the associated health and energy inequities. These findings highlight the growing health risks from indoor heat exposure in warming climatesparticularly in temperate countries like New Zealand, where inhabitants and infrastructure are not adequately prepared to handle heat-related risks. Relying solely on energy-intensive active cooling exacerbates energy poverty and injustice, increasing residential energy demand. Policy interventions should focus on promoting passive, energy-efficient, and sustainable cooling strategies to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related health disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100698"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying transformative decisions: A dual approach to adaptation pathways design using forward-exploration and backcasting","authors":"Noor ten Harmsen van der Beek ,&nbsp;Renske de Winter ,&nbsp;Esther van Baaren ,&nbsp;Ferdinand Diermanse ,&nbsp;Arno Nolte ,&nbsp;Marjolijn Haasnoot","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adaptation is needed to keep deltas and coastal zones liveable under changing climatic and socio-economic conditions. To date, adaptation is mostly small scale with incremental adaptation measures, while in some areas more fundamental transformative decisions are required in the future, such as changing objectives and land use. Here, we introduce an adaptation pathways method that uses forward-exploration and backcasting to study the impact of fundamental decisions on the solution space. For this, we extend the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) approach and refer to this as DAPP-Δ (DAPP-delta) with Δ representing the fundamental decisions. Following the traditional DAPP approach, we explore alternative sequences of adaptation measures to continue to achieve objectives under changing conditions. New to the method is the backcasting of critical implementation paths from different envisioned future states, including changes in land use. Additionally, we identify synergies and conflicts between the forward-looking pathways and backcasting implementation paths. We use the southwest of the Netherlands as an illustrative case study. In this region, multiple adaptation tipping points are projected due to sea-level rise and economic changes, while simultaneously large-scale investments in aging infrastructure are expected. The results show that the DAPP-Δ method a) helps to identify pivotal adaptation decisions that goes beyond incremental adaptation and includes transformative decisions; b) effectively reveals the risk of maladaptation; and c) illustrates the necessity to include multiple changes in the analysis, as they together determine investments in the area and with that the solution space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100716"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations","authors":"Douglas C. Jaks ,&nbsp;Ashish Shrestha ,&nbsp;Christopher M. Chini","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100718"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors affecting the application of protective measures before flood occurrence among local communities in Iran","authors":"Esmaiel Askari ,&nbsp;Moslem Savari ,&nbsp;Marzieh Rezaei","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100730","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100730","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods rank among the most destructive natural hazards, inflicting extensive damage on rural areas by compromising infrastructure, destroying crops, and undermining livelihoods. Beyond the immediate economic losses, such events often trigger rural outmigration and erode social cohesion. Effective flood prevention strategies are therefore critical and can be advanced through public awareness campaigns, the reinforcement of social capital, the development of flood-resilient infrastructure, and the implementation of integrated crisis management plans. Despite the importance of these measures, previous research has largely concentrated on assessing community vulnerability, with limited attention given to proactive protective factors. Addressing this gap, the present study aims to identify the determinants influencing the adoption of protective measures among rural communities in Iran prior to flood events. The statistical population of this study comprised all rural households in Shushtar County, located in Khuzestan Province, southwest Iran. A sample of 353 rural household heads was selected using the Krejcie and Morgan table, applying a multi-stage stratified sampling method to ensure representation across different villages. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed by a panel of subject matter experts, while reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. Data analysis was conducted in two phases—descriptive and inferential statistics—using SPSS and SmartPLS software. The findings demonstrated that the variables of psychological distance, social media use, place attachment, flood experience, social capital, and flood risk perception had significant and positive effects on protective behaviors prior to flooding. Collectively, these variables accounted for 76.3% of the variance in protective measures. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers seeking to enhance the resilience and safety of rural communities in flood-prone regions. By proactively addressing flood risks, such measures can contribute to the sustainability of rural livelihoods and the strengthening of local resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100730"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144685725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}