Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate","authors":"Zhiting Chen ,&nbsp;Kimberley Clare O’Sullivan ,&nbsp;Rachel Kowalchuk Dohig ,&nbsp;Nevil Pierse ,&nbsp;Terence Jiang ,&nbsp;Mylène Riva ,&nbsp;Runa Das","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the health risks associated with indoor overheating and the impacts of cooling energy poverty during summer is becoming increasingly urgent as anthropogenic climate change intensifies heatwave events in many places. We report on results from a cross-sectional postal survey undertaken in Summer 2021/2022, conducted in five regions of New Zealand that typically experience some of the highest temperatures nationally. The study revealed that energy poverty is significant issue during summer, with 43% of the respondents identifying cost as a cooling restriction. Indoor overheating commonly affected the health and wellbeing of participants, with 63% reporting adverse health outcomes. Households citing cost as a cooling restriction were significantly more likely to report adverse health outcomes. Renters and indigenous Māori households were disproportionately affected by indoor overheating and the associated health and energy inequities. These findings highlight the growing health risks from indoor heat exposure in warming climatesparticularly in temperate countries like New Zealand, where inhabitants and infrastructure are not adequately prepared to handle heat-related risks. Relying solely on energy-intensive active cooling exacerbates energy poverty and injustice, increasing residential energy demand. Policy interventions should focus on promoting passive, energy-efficient, and sustainable cooling strategies to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related health disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100698"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying transformative decisions: A dual approach to adaptation pathways design using forward-exploration and backcasting","authors":"Noor ten Harmsen van der Beek ,&nbsp;Renske de Winter ,&nbsp;Esther van Baaren ,&nbsp;Ferdinand Diermanse ,&nbsp;Arno Nolte ,&nbsp;Marjolijn Haasnoot","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adaptation is needed to keep deltas and coastal zones liveable under changing climatic and socio-economic conditions. To date, adaptation is mostly small scale with incremental adaptation measures, while in some areas more fundamental transformative decisions are required in the future, such as changing objectives and land use. Here, we introduce an adaptation pathways method that uses forward-exploration and backcasting to study the impact of fundamental decisions on the solution space. For this, we extend the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) approach and refer to this as DAPP-Δ (DAPP-delta) with Δ representing the fundamental decisions. Following the traditional DAPP approach, we explore alternative sequences of adaptation measures to continue to achieve objectives under changing conditions. New to the method is the backcasting of critical implementation paths from different envisioned future states, including changes in land use. Additionally, we identify synergies and conflicts between the forward-looking pathways and backcasting implementation paths. We use the southwest of the Netherlands as an illustrative case study. In this region, multiple adaptation tipping points are projected due to sea-level rise and economic changes, while simultaneously large-scale investments in aging infrastructure are expected. The results show that the DAPP-Δ method a) helps to identify pivotal adaptation decisions that goes beyond incremental adaptation and includes transformative decisions; b) effectively reveals the risk of maladaptation; and c) illustrates the necessity to include multiple changes in the analysis, as they together determine investments in the area and with that the solution space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100716"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143899525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations","authors":"Douglas C. Jaks ,&nbsp;Ashish Shrestha ,&nbsp;Christopher M. Chini","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100718"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144241855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors affecting the application of protective measures before flood occurrence among local communities in Iran","authors":"Esmaiel Askari ,&nbsp;Moslem Savari ,&nbsp;Marzieh Rezaei","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100730","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100730","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods rank among the most destructive natural hazards, inflicting extensive damage on rural areas by compromising infrastructure, destroying crops, and undermining livelihoods. Beyond the immediate economic losses, such events often trigger rural outmigration and erode social cohesion. Effective flood prevention strategies are therefore critical and can be advanced through public awareness campaigns, the reinforcement of social capital, the development of flood-resilient infrastructure, and the implementation of integrated crisis management plans. Despite the importance of these measures, previous research has largely concentrated on assessing community vulnerability, with limited attention given to proactive protective factors. Addressing this gap, the present study aims to identify the determinants influencing the adoption of protective measures among rural communities in Iran prior to flood events. The statistical population of this study comprised all rural households in Shushtar County, located in Khuzestan Province, southwest Iran. A sample of 353 rural household heads was selected using the Krejcie and Morgan table, applying a multi-stage stratified sampling method to ensure representation across different villages. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed by a panel of subject matter experts, while reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient. Data analysis was conducted in two phases—descriptive and inferential statistics—using SPSS and SmartPLS software. The findings demonstrated that the variables of psychological distance, social media use, place attachment, flood experience, social capital, and flood risk perception had significant and positive effects on protective behaviors prior to flooding. Collectively, these variables accounted for 76.3% of the variance in protective measures. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers seeking to enhance the resilience and safety of rural communities in flood-prone regions. By proactively addressing flood risks, such measures can contribute to the sustainability of rural livelihoods and the strengthening of local resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100730"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144685725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania","authors":"Jacob Emanuel Joseph ,&nbsp;K.P.C Rao ,&nbsp;Elirehema Swai ,&nbsp;Anthony M. Whitbread ,&nbsp;Reimund P. Rötter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100686"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nexus of climate change adaptation and household wealth in climate risk hotspots – Insights from rural farm households of Pakistan","authors":"Shangao Wang ,&nbsp;Panhwar Ghulam Mustafa ,&nbsp;Gershom Endelani Mwalupaso ,&nbsp;Zhou Li","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agricultural sector is a cornerstone of economic development, particularly in low-income countries where smallholder farming supports livelihoods and food security. However, the increasing unpredictability of climatic factors poses significant challenges, threatening its capacity to bolster smallholder farmers’ household wealth through food production. While climate adaptation measures have been widely promoted, there remains a notable lack of empirical evidence establishing the relationship between climate adaptation and household wealth. Addressing this critical research gap, this study examines the relationship between climate adaptation and household wealth among 400 wheat smallholder farmers in Sindh province, Pakistan. Using endogenous switching regression (ESR) and propensity score matching (PSM) for robustness, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT). The results consistently show that climate adaptation significantly increases per capita household wealth, primarily through enhanced crop production. Counterfactual analysis reveals that non-adopting households could have reduced poverty severity by 15% and extreme poverty by 17% had they adopted adaptation measures. These findings provide compelling empirical evidence for policymakers to prioritize adaptation support frameworks—such as subsidized inputs or training programs—which are indispensable for safeguarding food production, reducing climate vulnerability, and lifting smallholders out of poverty. By demonstrating the dual benefits of adaptation—wealth accumulation and poverty alleviation—this study underscores the urgency of scaling up climate-resilient agricultural practices as a key strategy for reducing vulnerability and fostering sustainable livelihoods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100704"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143807720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Australian housing affordability trap – How environmental, institutional, and structural factors can immobilize Australian households in the face of extreme weather events – A case study on flooding","authors":"Julia Plass ,&nbsp;Jens O. Zinn","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100713","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With climate change a growing number of increasingly severe hazards such as floods and bushfires affect populated regions in Australia. As a result, insurance premiums rise, and hazard-prone regions might even become uninsurable. Using the example of floods, this article examines how under conditions of the Australian housing crisis these risks affect households unequally. After major floods, un- and underinsured households often lack the capacity to recover. At the same time, they become immobilized because they cannot afford to move out of regions at risk. Based on 26 semi-structured interviews with (re-) insurance, legal, financial and urban planning experts conducted in 2022, the article provides empirical insights into the under-researched interconnection of household immobilization and vulnerability to extreme weather events from an expert perspective. The experts identify four factors which combine in producing vulnerability and at the same time immobilizing people: location and urban planning, the privatization of risk, socio-economic factors as well as awareness and the distribution of information. Current political strategies address the challenge of moving people out of at-risk locations but do neither sufficiently address the housing and insurance situation nor how people’s personal attachment to a region affects their housing decision.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100713"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143882445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate extremes are critical to maize yield and will be severer in North China","authors":"Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Yan-Jun Shen ,&nbsp;Shui Yu ,&nbsp;Xiaolong Zhang ,&nbsp;Dengpan Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100710","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100710","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With climate change, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes have increased significantly, exerting remarkable impacts on agricultural production in China. Irrigation, as an efficient agricultural management approach to maintaining the crop yield, was widely but unevenly implemented in China. Elucidating the impacts of climate change on maize yield and the role of irrigation in mitigating the climate change impacts on maize yield is critical to enhance the resilience of the national food system. Here, the key growing period and the sensitive meteorological indicators to maize yield variation in two major maize producing regions of China were revealed using the multiple regression models. The results indicate that the reproductive growing period and the precipitation-related indicators are more prominent for the maize yield variation in the North China Plain, whereas in Northeast China Plain, the vegetative growing period and the temperature-related indices contribute more to the maize yield. Among all meteorological indicators, the heat degree days and the consecutive dry days are the most influential meteorological factors to maize yield, and the heat degree days are projected be increasing drastically in the future, bring more heat threats to the maize yield. Result show that agricultural irrigation could significantly mitigate the dependence of maize yields variation on climate change, the determination coefficients of climate indices on maize yield decreased by 0.10 and 0.15 for the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain as the irrigation intensity increased. Adaptable solutions concerning the impact of extreme climates and the construction of agricultural irrigation facilities should be taken into consideration to cope with climate change and ensure the food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100710"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143854384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of gender in firm-level climate change adaptation behaviour: Insights from small businesses in Senegal and Kenya","authors":"Kate Elizabeth Gannon ,&nbsp;Shaikh M.S.U. Eskander ,&nbsp;Antonio Avila-Uribe ,&nbsp;Elena Castellano ,&nbsp;Mamadou Diop ,&nbsp;Dorice Agol","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Literature on gender and climate change adaptation tends to propose that women are both especially vulnerable to climate change and especially valuable to climate change adaptation, but these ideas have been little considered in the context of adaptation within small businesses and have rarely been tested through quantitative empirical analysis. This paper responds to this gap within existing literature and explores how female representation in the ownership or management structures of micro and small businesses shapes firm-level adaptive capacity, as implied through adaptation behaviour. Using firm-level survey data from semi-arid regions of Senegal and Kenya, we employ a Poisson regression model to empirically investigate how female representation in ownership and management of micro and small businesses affects adoption of firm-level sustainable and unsustainable adaptation strategies, with increasing exposure to extreme weather events. Our results show that businesses with female leadership that faced a larger number of extreme events adopt more sustainable and fewer unsustainable strategies than those with only male leadership. We interpret this result recognising that unsustainable adaptation strategies, such as selling business assets, require a business to have access to business assets and resources and thus are an outcome of a business’ coping capacity. Consistent with literature, we then identify that adaptation assistance can mitigate some of the harmful effects of climate shocks and additionally support micro and small businesses with female leadership to adopt more adaptation strategies (both sustainable and unsustainable) – and to a greater extent than businesses with only male leadership. Results evidence the value and efficiency of developing an inclusive business enabling environment for adaptation that targets women entrepreneurs, not just for delivering on equitable climate justice agendas, but also for strategic upscaling of resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100699"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resilience as a Gateway: Private foundations and the financialization of disaster assistance","authors":"Gaélane Wolff","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International aid, including contributions from private foundations, assumes a pivotal role within the neoliberal framework, particularly in its utilization of resilience as a strategy for adapting to disasters exacerbated by climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters necessitate innovative responses, and private foundations inhabit a unique space that straddles the realms of the public and private sectors, blurring the lines between them. The discourse surrounding these foundations aligns closely with the concept of resilience, which regards disaster survivors as agents capable of catalyzing their own transformation. The concept of resilience might lead us to believe that non-state actors working on the ground are motivated by a desire to empower individuals in the face of such calamities. Examining the intricate interplay between private foundations, resilience, and the neoliberal system allows for an exploration of how disasters, particularly those driven by climate change, are perceived as opportunities for development within a neoliberal society. This research endeavors to answer the question: <strong>How does the instrumentalization of resilience by private foundations contribute to the development of financialization in disaster assistance?</strong> To address this inquiry, a discourse analysis of 200 documents from the year 2000 to the present, originating from two private foundations actively involved in disaster assistance, was conducted. Approximately thirty semi-structured interviews complete this analysis. The theoretical framework of this paper is rooted in the critical post-structuralist approach and provides a critical examination of post-humanitarianism within the context of the adaptive conception of resilience within contemporary neoliberal societies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100707"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}