Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"From climate risk to action: Analysing adaptation decision robustness under uncertainty","authors":"Cecina Babich Morrow ,&nbsp;Laura Dawkins ,&nbsp;Francesca Pianosi ,&nbsp;Dennis Prangle ,&nbsp;Dan Bernie","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100751","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100751","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate adaptation decisions are made under great uncertainty, arising from uncertainties about both the level of climate risk and the attributes of decision options. Decision-makers must understand how uncertainties in the input factors of risk assessment and decision models affect the ultimate adaptation decision, and whether the modelling yields a robust decision, i.e. one that is consistently identified as optimal over a range of uncertain input factors. Here, we present a framework for analysing the robustness of climate adaptation decisions. We apply a Bayesian Decision Analysis framework to determine the optimal output decision in a region based on both climate risk and decision-related attributes. Then, we present an approach for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the optimal adaptation decision itself to assess robustness and understand which input factors most influence the decision in a particular region. We demonstrate this framework on an idealised example of adaptation decision-making to mitigate the risk of heat-stress on outdoor physical working capacity in the UK. In this application, we find that regions with high uncertainty in climate risk can still exhibit greater robustness in the optimal decision, and the decision is often more sensitive to variations in decision-related attributes rather than risk-related attributes. Previous research often stops short at assessing uncertainty and sensitivity in climate risk alone. These results highlight the necessity of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the ultimate decision output itself in order to understand what factors drive decision robustness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100751"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145220403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How beneficial are seasonal climate forecasts for climate risk management? An appraisal for crop production in Tanzania","authors":"Jacob Emanuel Joseph ,&nbsp;K.P.C Rao ,&nbsp;Elirehema Swai ,&nbsp;Anthony M. Whitbread ,&nbsp;Reimund P. Rötter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding growing period conditions is crucial for effective climate risk management strategies. Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) are key in predicting these conditions and guiding risk management in agriculture. However, low SCF adoption rates among smallholder farmers are due to factors like uncertainty and lack of understanding. In this study, we evaluated the benefits of SCF in predicting growing season conditions, and crop performance, and developing climate risk management strategies in Kongwa district, Tanzania. We used sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) from the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions to predict seasonal rainfall onset dates using the k-nearest neighbor model. Contrary to traditional approaches, the study established the use of rainfall onset dates as the criterion for predicting and describing growing period conditions. We then evaluated forecast skills and the profitability of using SCF in crop management with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) coupled with a simple bio-economic model. Our findings show that SSTa significantly influences rainfall variability and accurately predicts rainfall onset dates. Onset dates proved more effective than traditional methods in depicting key growing period characteristics, including rainfall variability and distribution. Including SCF in climate risk management proved beneficial for maize and sorghum production both agronomically and economically. Not using SCF posed a higher risk to crop production, with an 80% probability of yield losses, especially in late-onset seasons. We conclude that while SCF has potential benefits, improvements are needed in its generation and dissemination. Enhancing the network of extension agents could facilitate better understanding and adoption by smallholder farmers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100686"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nexus of climate change adaptation and household wealth in climate risk hotspots – Insights from rural farm households of Pakistan","authors":"Shangao Wang ,&nbsp;Panhwar Ghulam Mustafa ,&nbsp;Gershom Endelani Mwalupaso ,&nbsp;Zhou Li","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100704","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100704","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agricultural sector is a cornerstone of economic development, particularly in low-income countries where smallholder farming supports livelihoods and food security. However, the increasing unpredictability of climatic factors poses significant challenges, threatening its capacity to bolster smallholder farmers’ household wealth through food production. While climate adaptation measures have been widely promoted, there remains a notable lack of empirical evidence establishing the relationship between climate adaptation and household wealth. Addressing this critical research gap, this study examines the relationship between climate adaptation and household wealth among 400 wheat smallholder farmers in Sindh province, Pakistan. Using endogenous switching regression (ESR) and propensity score matching (PSM) for robustness, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT). The results consistently show that climate adaptation significantly increases per capita household wealth, primarily through enhanced crop production. Counterfactual analysis reveals that non-adopting households could have reduced poverty severity by 15% and extreme poverty by 17% had they adopted adaptation measures. These findings provide compelling empirical evidence for policymakers to prioritize adaptation support frameworks—such as subsidized inputs or training programs—which are indispensable for safeguarding food production, reducing climate vulnerability, and lifting smallholders out of poverty. By demonstrating the dual benefits of adaptation—wealth accumulation and poverty alleviation—this study underscores the urgency of scaling up climate-resilient agricultural practices as a key strategy for reducing vulnerability and fostering sustainable livelihoods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100704"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143807720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Australian housing affordability trap – How environmental, institutional, and structural factors can immobilize Australian households in the face of extreme weather events – A case study on flooding","authors":"Julia Plass ,&nbsp;Jens O. Zinn","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100713","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100713","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With climate change a growing number of increasingly severe hazards such as floods and bushfires affect populated regions in Australia. As a result, insurance premiums rise, and hazard-prone regions might even become uninsurable. Using the example of floods, this article examines how under conditions of the Australian housing crisis these risks affect households unequally. After major floods, un- and underinsured households often lack the capacity to recover. At the same time, they become immobilized because they cannot afford to move out of regions at risk. Based on 26 semi-structured interviews with (re-) insurance, legal, financial and urban planning experts conducted in 2022, the article provides empirical insights into the under-researched interconnection of household immobilization and vulnerability to extreme weather events from an expert perspective. The experts identify four factors which combine in producing vulnerability and at the same time immobilizing people: location and urban planning, the privatization of risk, socio-economic factors as well as awareness and the distribution of information. Current political strategies address the challenge of moving people out of at-risk locations but do neither sufficiently address the housing and insurance situation nor how people’s personal attachment to a region affects their housing decision.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100713"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143882445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards wildfire risk reduction goals and targets for Europe – Opportunities and challenges","authors":"C. Berchtold ,&nbsp;K. Petersen ,&nbsp;M. Kaskara ,&nbsp;M.L. Pettinari ,&nbsp;J. Vinders ,&nbsp;J. Schlierkamp ,&nbsp;N. Kalapodis ,&nbsp;G. Sakkas ,&nbsp;P. Brunet ,&nbsp;J. Soldatos ,&nbsp;A. Lazarou ,&nbsp;D. Casciano ,&nbsp;K. Chandramouli ,&nbsp;T. Deubelli ,&nbsp;A. Scolobig ,&nbsp;H. Silva ,&nbsp;E. Plana ,&nbsp;M. Garofalo","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100744","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100744","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of wildfires is increasing worldwide. The root causes of these effects are manifold, encompassing among others climate change and the accumulation of fuels and increasing settlements in wildland-urban interfaces (WUI). Reports and initiatives to better understand and govern these developments have been launched and call for more integrated approaches to wildfire risk management, including the use of targets or Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).</div><div>However, despite some examples such as Portugal, wildfire risk management targets are still mainly lacking in Europe. This is surprising since they find wider application in the U.S. and are also more widely applied for flooding in Europe.</div><div>This perspective hence takes a closer look at the use of targets in reducing disaster risk for different hazards worldwide and reflects about the opportunities and challenges for wildfire risk reduction targets for Europe. It concludes with some suggestions for the application of wildfire risk reduction targets for Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100744"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ex-ante and ex-post adaptation: Farmers’ fertilizer strategies for extreme weather events in China","authors":"Yueqing Ji,&nbsp;Yongyi Fu,&nbsp;Liping Kong,&nbsp;Price M. Amanya,&nbsp;Zongyao Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100745","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100745","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates farmers’ fertilizer strategies as ex-ante and ex-post adaptations to extreme weather events in China. Using plot-level data from 778 maize farmers across three provinces collected in 2015 and 2018, we employ two-way fixed effects models to analyze how farmers adjust fertilizer quantity both before and during the growing season in response to floods, droughts, and windstorms. The results show that farmers increase ex-ante fertilizer application under flood risk but reduce input when anticipating drought and windstorm risks. After disaster shocks, they supplement fertilizer as an ex-post coping strategy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that smallholders and nitrogen fertilizers are more sensitive to extreme weather, and that the effects of disaster severity are nonlinear and vary by disaster type. Mechanism analysis suggests that ex-ante fertilizer use can mitigate flood risk but may increase vulnerability to drought and windstorms, whereas ex-post use broadly aids recovery. Extended analysis uncovers a substitution effect between public interventions and private adaptation. These findings provide micro-level empirical evidence and policy insights for balancing food security and environmental sustainability amid rising extreme weather.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100745"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145099473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate extremes are critical to maize yield and will be severer in North China","authors":"Yan Wang ,&nbsp;Yan-Jun Shen ,&nbsp;Shui Yu ,&nbsp;Xiaolong Zhang ,&nbsp;Dengpan Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100710","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100710","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With climate change, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes have increased significantly, exerting remarkable impacts on agricultural production in China. Irrigation, as an efficient agricultural management approach to maintaining the crop yield, was widely but unevenly implemented in China. Elucidating the impacts of climate change on maize yield and the role of irrigation in mitigating the climate change impacts on maize yield is critical to enhance the resilience of the national food system. Here, the key growing period and the sensitive meteorological indicators to maize yield variation in two major maize producing regions of China were revealed using the multiple regression models. The results indicate that the reproductive growing period and the precipitation-related indicators are more prominent for the maize yield variation in the North China Plain, whereas in Northeast China Plain, the vegetative growing period and the temperature-related indices contribute more to the maize yield. Among all meteorological indicators, the heat degree days and the consecutive dry days are the most influential meteorological factors to maize yield, and the heat degree days are projected be increasing drastically in the future, bring more heat threats to the maize yield. Result show that agricultural irrigation could significantly mitigate the dependence of maize yields variation on climate change, the determination coefficients of climate indices on maize yield decreased by 0.10 and 0.15 for the North China Plain and Northeast China Plain as the irrigation intensity increased. Adaptable solutions concerning the impact of extreme climates and the construction of agricultural irrigation facilities should be taken into consideration to cope with climate change and ensure the food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100710"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143854384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of gender in firm-level climate change adaptation behaviour: Insights from small businesses in Senegal and Kenya","authors":"Kate Elizabeth Gannon ,&nbsp;Shaikh M.S.U. Eskander ,&nbsp;Antonio Avila-Uribe ,&nbsp;Elena Castellano ,&nbsp;Mamadou Diop ,&nbsp;Dorice Agol","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Literature on gender and climate change adaptation tends to propose that women are both especially vulnerable to climate change and especially valuable to climate change adaptation, but these ideas have been little considered in the context of adaptation within small businesses and have rarely been tested through quantitative empirical analysis. This paper responds to this gap within existing literature and explores how female representation in the ownership or management structures of micro and small businesses shapes firm-level adaptive capacity, as implied through adaptation behaviour. Using firm-level survey data from semi-arid regions of Senegal and Kenya, we employ a Poisson regression model to empirically investigate how female representation in ownership and management of micro and small businesses affects adoption of firm-level sustainable and unsustainable adaptation strategies, with increasing exposure to extreme weather events. Our results show that businesses with female leadership that faced a larger number of extreme events adopt more sustainable and fewer unsustainable strategies than those with only male leadership. We interpret this result recognising that unsustainable adaptation strategies, such as selling business assets, require a business to have access to business assets and resources and thus are an outcome of a business’ coping capacity. Consistent with literature, we then identify that adaptation assistance can mitigate some of the harmful effects of climate shocks and additionally support micro and small businesses with female leadership to adopt more adaptation strategies (both sustainable and unsustainable) – and to a greater extent than businesses with only male leadership. Results evidence the value and efficiency of developing an inclusive business enabling environment for adaptation that targets women entrepreneurs, not just for delivering on equitable climate justice agendas, but also for strategic upscaling of resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100699"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143643075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Resilience as a Gateway: Private foundations and the financialization of disaster assistance","authors":"Gaélane Wolff","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100707","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100707","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International aid, including contributions from private foundations, assumes a pivotal role within the neoliberal framework, particularly in its utilization of resilience as a strategy for adapting to disasters exacerbated by climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters necessitate innovative responses, and private foundations inhabit a unique space that straddles the realms of the public and private sectors, blurring the lines between them. The discourse surrounding these foundations aligns closely with the concept of resilience, which regards disaster survivors as agents capable of catalyzing their own transformation. The concept of resilience might lead us to believe that non-state actors working on the ground are motivated by a desire to empower individuals in the face of such calamities. Examining the intricate interplay between private foundations, resilience, and the neoliberal system allows for an exploration of how disasters, particularly those driven by climate change, are perceived as opportunities for development within a neoliberal society. This research endeavors to answer the question: <strong>How does the instrumentalization of resilience by private foundations contribute to the development of financialization in disaster assistance?</strong> To address this inquiry, a discourse analysis of 200 documents from the year 2000 to the present, originating from two private foundations actively involved in disaster assistance, was conducted. Approximately thirty semi-structured interviews complete this analysis. The theoretical framework of this paper is rooted in the critical post-structuralist approach and provides a critical examination of post-humanitarianism within the context of the adaptive conception of resilience within contemporary neoliberal societies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100707"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143874776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of climate change on household dietary diversity in Afghanistan","authors":"Jamshid Yolchi,&nbsp;Huaiyu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100687","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change adaptation policies and research have traditionally focused on dietary quantity, neglecting dietary quality, particularly in developing countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to identify how climate change affects household dietary diversity and whether the impacts are consistent across different food groups. To examine the impact of climate change on dietary diversity in Afghanistan, a climate change proxy variable (temperature) was created at the district level by calculating the difference from its long-term mean. Meanwhile, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) was obtained from three rounds of household survey data conducted between 2011 and 2017, which included information from 60,099 households. Negative binomial regression analysis reveals a positive association between climate change and HDDS. That is, higher temperatures would lead to the higher availability of diverse diets in Afghanistan. Interestingly, climate change appears to affect food groups heterogeneously. While staple food consumption frequency remains unaffected, non-staple food consumption increases with higher temperatures. The results remain consistent after incorporating precipitation and two lagged versions of temperature and precipitation into the model. Therefore, the climate adaptation policies of the government of Afghanistan should consider different policy implications for staple and non-staple foods. These findings have policy implications for achieving food security and climate change-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as SDG 2 (zero hunger) and SDG 13 (climate action).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100687"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}