Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"Assessing leverage points for strengthening adaptive capacity in a Global South food system: A psychometric approach","authors":"Linda M. Rosengren ,&nbsp;Janne Kaseva ,&nbsp;Mila Sell ,&nbsp;Christopher M. Raymond","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite the burgeoning literature on adaptive capacity, there is a lack of psychometric approaches for assessing the determinants of adaptive capacity, particularly in food systems in the Global South. The study addressed this knowledge gap by investigating four determinants, previously identified as leverage points, for strengthening adaptive capacity: access to finance, access to and use of information and knowledge, social learning, and gender equality. Drawing on a survey (n = 1,271) of food system actors in Kisumu County, Kenya, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis, which yielded factors of moderate-high internal validity and reliability. We then used structural equation modelling to examine the causal effect of food system actors’ attitudes and beliefs towards the four leverage points with regards to their perceived adaptive capacity. Two factors, access to finance and social learning, were significant positive predictors of adaptive capacity. A third leverage point factor, gender equality, contributed to the respondents’ perceived adaptive capacity through the mediating factor of assets. The results reveal entry points for strategic adaptation planning and raise complexities related to gender norms and values. We discuss the implications of these findings for adaptive capacity and transformative adaptation theory in food systems in the Global South.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"44 ","pages":"Article 100592"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000093/pdfft?md5=9ab4e269e755113e678fbe6b85165c9e&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000093-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140057619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Barriers to climate adaptation in Norwegian building projects – Insights from moisture safety designers’ perspective","authors":"Jørn Emil Gaarder ,&nbsp;Runar Høien Clausen ,&nbsp;Robert Næss ,&nbsp;Tore Kvande","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100590","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100590","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To reduce the escalating maintenance costs for the Norwegian building stock, adapting new building designs to future climate changes becomes necessary. Currently, climate adaptation of moisture safety design by considering future climate loads is not mandatory in the Norwegian building code. This forces building designers to choose between adhering to existing standards and guidelines or investing additional efforts in adapting the building design to future climate change, at higher initial costs and with uncertain long-term benefits. This study aims to analyze the perceptions of Norwegian building physicists of future climate risks and their capacity to influence adaptation efforts in new construction projects. A thematic analysis of 15 semi-structured interviews with Norwegian building physicists from multiple companies and different regions of Norway is presented. The respondents recognize the need to adapt building designs to account for future climate loads more effectively; however, they lack the requisite influence and tools to implement the same. They look to authorities to establish requirements, and research institutes to develop tools that enable them to effectively fulfil their roles. Significant barriers for climate adaptation in building projects include lack of support from other project stakeholders, unavailability of efficient tools based on qualitative risk assessment for addressing climate adaptation, and insufficient focus on climate adaptation in building codes and guidelines. Development of methods for implementing climate adaptation in moisture safety design must reflect this, and quick-to-use robusteness assessment frameworks that treats these uncertainties in a non-quantitative manner are needed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100590"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209632400007X/pdfft?md5=5ae4b95de41a4ae0fe6fedbe6b5da53a&pid=1-s2.0-S221209632400007X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139914840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weather risks, crop losses, and risk proneness: An examination of evolving risk preferences of rice farmers in Bangladesh","authors":"W. Parker Wheatley ,&nbsp;Taznoore Khanam ,&nbsp;Valerien O. Pede ,&nbsp;Takashi Yamano","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100645","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100645","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Changing climate poses significant challenges for smallholder rice farmers. Weather-related deviations from longer-term patterns and crop losses due to abiotic hazards can affect farmer risk preferences and drive adaptive responses. In addition, farmers’ proneness to and past experiences with crop risks such as drought, submergence, and excess soil salinity can impact their baseline risk preferences and their response to changing risks. Using data for Bangladesh from two waves of the Rice Monitoring Survey, climate-related data (precipitation and temperature), farmer reports of crop losses, and measures of proneness to abiotic risks, this article estimates how weather deviations from longer-term trends, crop losses, and proneness to crop risks (submergence, drought, and soil salinity) affect elicited risk preferences over time. This research finds evidence in favor of the hypothesis that larger absolute seasonal deviations from past patterns of seasonal mean daily minimum temperature and seasonal total precipitation yield increased risk aversion. In addition, the research provides mixed evidence with respect to risk proneness and farmers’ change in risk preferences over time. Contrary to our original hypothesis, individuals with land more prone to soil salinity become more risk averse rather than less, but, consistent with our hypothesis, those with land more prone to crop submergence become more risk preferring over time. Because of differences in crop experiences and degrees of proneness to risk, risk preferences for farmers in different regions are predicted to evolve along different pathways. This article contributes to the literature on risk preference formation by considering the possibility that less significant deviations than shocks might also contribute to evolving risk preferences. In addition, the article emphasizes the regional heterogeneity of changing preferences. An ancillary finding of this work suggests that risk preferences are only weakly related over time, contrary to other findings in the literature on the stability of risk preferences. Of policy relevance, the differential experiences in weather variability at the regional and local levels yield important differences in changes in preferences and should give rise to careful, regional-level policies to support adaptation to changing weather.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100645"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000627/pdfft?md5=8d852f8962abaa3bb138ae0afd6c766f&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000627-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142083847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Behind the floodwaters: Violence against women, and disaster management capacities in flood-affected areas of Pakistan","authors":"Wahid Ullah ,&nbsp;Dong Haijun ,&nbsp;Ashfaq Ahmad Shah ,&nbsp;Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ,&nbsp;Abdur Rauf","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100653","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100653","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the experiences of violence women faced during and after climate-induced migration in Pakistan, focusing on the context of floods. Through in-depth interviews, the study explores the specific forms of violence experienced by women, the underlying factors contributing to their vulnerability, their coping strategies employed in flood-affected areas, and the disaster management abilities of women in Pakistan. The findings of the study indicate that the economic hardships and poverty, displacement and gender disparities, overcrowded living conditions in relief camps, breakdown of law and order during disasters, and limited access to healthcare services stand out as noticeable reasons for gender-based violence. Key informants reported an increase in domestic violence incidence. However, women’s role as caretakers, their ability to livelihood diversification, and their knowledge of local conditions were among the dominant coping measures in the study area. Therefore, the study suggests implementing gender-sensitive disaster management strategies that prioritize women’s safety, access to resources, strengthening legal protections against gender-based violence, and promoting women’s leadership in disaster preparedness and response efforts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100653"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000706/pdfft?md5=0f46dca1ad9127a4152fa4d3a41ab8c4&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000706-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142239572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate-resilient strategy planning using the SWOT methodology: A case study of the Japanese wind energy sector","authors":"Lisa Bachmann ,&nbsp;Ricarda Lex ,&nbsp;Florian Regli ,&nbsp;Saira Vögeli ,&nbsp;Evelyn Mühlhofer ,&nbsp;Jamie W. McCaughey ,&nbsp;Susanne Hanger-Kopp ,&nbsp;David N. Bresch ,&nbsp;Chahan M. Kropf","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100665","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100665","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate change leads to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, industry stakeholders and policymakers must assess their business strategies, practices, and entire sector policies under these uncertain conditions. Much recent research has integrated quantitative climate risk modeling into frameworks to engage policymakers and inform adaptation decisions in a general way, but relatively little attention has been devoted to extending this to strategic business and investment decisions. This falls short of identifying economic opportunities and threats in a wider socio-economic context, such as the development of new technologies or evolving political and regulatory environments. Here, a methodology is developed to integrate quantitative climate risk modeling with SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) which is commonly used in business and investment strategic planning. This moves the focus from avoidance of negative outcomes to prospective planning in an evolving environment. This methodology is illustrated with a case study of the Japanese wind energy sector, using open-access data and the open-source climate risk-assessment platform CLIMADA. This Climate risk assessment indicates threats from increasing damages to the wind energy infrastructure, as well as the profitability of typhoon-resistant wind turbines under present and future climate. Expert interviews and extensive literature research on opportunities and threats, however, also show that the transition towards renewable energies faces restrictive market dynamics, political and social hurdles, which set external conditions surpassing physically-informed dimensions. Beyond this illustrative case study, the methodology developed here bridges established concepts in climate risk modeling and strategic management and thus can be used to identify industry-centric ways forward for climate-resilient planning across a wide range of economic sectors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100665"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142702061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of livelihood capitals on farmers’ adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices: Evidence from rice production in the Jianghan Plain, China","authors":"Qingmeng Tong ,&nbsp;Xinyuan Yuan ,&nbsp;Lu Zhang ,&nbsp;Junbiao Zhang ,&nbsp;Wenjing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2023.100583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2023.100583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>As the relationship between climate change and agricultural production increasingly gains attention, the FAO recommends the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices (CSAPs) to ensure the stable development of agriculture amidst changing climatic conditions. However, the adoption rate of CSAPs remains low and the effects of livelihood capitals have received little attention. Based on the survey data for 916 farmers in the Jianghan Plain of China, this paper adopts a multivariate Probit model to examine the impact of farmers’ livelihood capitals which are measured by an entropy-TOPSIS approach on their adoption of CSAPs. Our results demonstrate that different livelihood capitals exert various influence on the adoption of CSAPs. Specifically, human, financial, physical, and social capital have positive relationships with pesticide-oriented CSAPs such as integrated pest management (IPM). Natural capital has a positive relationship with seed- and water- oriented CSAPs like tolerant rice varieties (TRV). Natural capital positively relates to soil-oriented CPSPs including rice straw mulching (RSM) while physical capital has a negative effect. Natural and physical capitals have positive relationships with fertilizer-oriented CSAPs like deep placement of fertilizer (DPF). Social and natural capitals have positive relationships with soil-oriented CSAPs such as no-tillage direct seeding (NTDS) while financial capital has a negative effect. Climate factors are also important in the adoption of CSAPs such as TRV and RSM. Finally, policy recommendations are suggested to enhance household livelihood capitals to promote the adoption of each type of CSAP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"43 ","pages":"Article 100583"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096323001092/pdfft?md5=c5f9671d418d3c3f6a506fe748ec3423&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096323001092-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139071619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Editorial for climate risk management, special issue: Building resilience in communities confronted with contaminated land, disasters, and changing environmental conditions","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100631","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100631"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000482/pdfft?md5=f7343688ab49a71292b2fad00905b547&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000482-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141508269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Organisational perceptions of adapting to a changing climate","authors":"Denyse S. Dookie ,&nbsp;Declan Conway ,&nbsp;Suraje Dessai ,&nbsp;Evan Oliner","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Organisations, in the private, public and third sectors, are critical stakeholders and actors in the governance of climate change adaptation. Understanding organisational perceptions of preparedness, risk and response to climate change is important for effective climate adaptation-focused actions and policy design. Our study focuses on two research questions: what factors influence adaptation actions by organisations?, and what do organisations mean by the term ‘adaptation’? To address these, we developed and analysed a national survey of UK-based organisations’ perceptions of adapting to a changing climate, administered in spring 2021 (<em>n</em> = 2,429). Our findings confirm that awareness matters: respondents who reported that their organisation had high levels of concern about climate change risk or threat, and which had greater integration of adaptation within processes, are more likely to take adaptation action. In addition, we find a positive relationship between the occurrence and type of extreme event experienced and increased adaptation action by organisations. However, when asked about specific adaptation measures taken by organisations, examples of mitigation are more frequently mentioned compared to adaptation-type actions. Whether this may signal confusion or conflation of adaptation and mitigation by organisations requires further study. These findings offer critical insights into the perceptions of organisations as pivotal leaders of enacting responses to climate change. A renewed focus on organisational experiences, awareness, attitudes and capacity regarding adaptation can assist in better understanding how organisations can facilitate improved climate-resilient decision-making.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100637"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096324000548/pdfft?md5=876ed49e7333f9c77993275e188580e3&pid=1-s2.0-S2212096324000548-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141852504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Artificial intelligence in support of weather warnings and climate adaptation","authors":"Tina-Simone Neset ,&nbsp;Katerina Vrotsou ,&nbsp;Lotta Andersson ,&nbsp;Carlo Navarra ,&nbsp;Fredrik Schück ,&nbsp;Magnus Mateo Edström ,&nbsp;Caroline Rydholm ,&nbsp;Clara Greve Villaro ,&nbsp;Kostiantyn Kucher ,&nbsp;Björn-Ola Linnér","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In October 2021, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) launched a novel national system for impact-based weather warnings, moving from the traditional format for meteorological, hydrological, and oceanographic warnings towards an assessment process that includes collaboration and consultation with regional stakeholders. For certain types of warnings, joint assessments of the potential impacts of weather events for a specific geographic area and time frame are made in collaboration with local and regional actors. As part of this new system, local and regional administrative efforts are made to create assessment-support documentation which are collated by practitioners at the municipal or organizational level, drawing on local knowledge, and subsequently compiled by the County Administrative Board. This process aims to support the collaborative decision-making processes ahead of the publication and in the evaluation of issued weather warnings.</div><div>This paper explores the potential of integrating long- and short-term perspectives in societal response to climate change impacts with focus on extreme weather events. We present a case of AI-based technology to support processes linked to the national system for impact-based weather warnings and its integration with local and regional climate adaptation processes. We explore opportunities to integrate an AI-based pipeline, employing AI-based image and text analysis of crowdsourced data, in the processes of the warning system, and analyse barriers and enablers identified by local, regional, and national stakeholders. We further discuss to what extent data and knowledge of historical extreme weather events can be integrated with local and regional climate adaptation efforts, and whether these efforts could bridge the divide between long-term adaptation strategies and short-term response measures related to extreme weather events. Thus, this study unfolds the existing and perceived barriers to this integration and discusses possible synergies and ways forward in risk management and climate adaptation practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100673"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of weather and climate information services to support in wildfire management in Northwestern Europe","authors":"H.A. Lambrechts ,&nbsp;C.R. Stoof ,&nbsp;M. del Pozo ,&nbsp;F. Ludwig ,&nbsp;S. Paparrizos","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2024.100672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate change intensifies, temperatures rise and extreme weather events become more frequent, leading to increased droughts and elevated wildfire risks. This trend is especially pronounced in with an emerging wildfire risk under climate change, including Northwestern Europe. This study evaluates the use and needs of climate information services (CIS) for supporting Integrated Fire Management in these regions. Employing a qualitative approach, an online survey was distributed to professional stakeholders in Northwestern Europe, focusing on their awareness and perception of preparedness for wildfires, their use of CIS, and their future needs for fire management.</div><div>Results indicate that while stakeholders are experiencing wildfires and although there is a high perception of preparedness for current wildfire conditions, their preparedness for future conditions is considerably lower. Most rely on short-term weather forecasts, yet there is a significant gap in the use and perceived need for long-term climate projections. Additionally, engagement with and awareness of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) are limited. The findings underscore the critical need for more detailed and locally relevant CIS that are salient, credible, and legitimate to foster proactive and adaptive management strategies. Enhancing stakeholder engagement and co-producing tailored CIS can contribute to improving prevention, preparedness, and resilience against the escalating threat of wildfires in Northwestern Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100672"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}