Climate Risk Management最新文献

{"title":"From climate change to dam construction: A multi-stressor analysis of global river water temperature change","authors":"Jin Gao,&nbsp;Jiawen Zhang,&nbsp;Yiwei Gong,&nbsp;Kaiming Yang,&nbsp;Weici Quan,&nbsp;Lu Li,&nbsp;Yuxi Wu,&nbsp;Rui Wang,&nbsp;Hongguang Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100778","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100778","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>River water temperature is a critical determinant of aquatic ecosystem health and water resource security. Understanding the compounded effects of climate change and human activities is therefore paramount. This review pioneers a quantitative synthesis of the research landscape, employing bibliometric analysis to move beyond narrative summaries and objectively map the field’s intellectual structure at a global scale. Our analysis confirms climate change as the principal driver of river warming, exacerbated by extreme events. Critically, we highlight the pervasive role of human activities, such as dam construction, urbanization, and land-use change, in modulating these thermal regimes through complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions. A key finding is that while dam operations can antagonistically buffer climate-driven warming by creating thermal lags, urbanization and reduced flows often synergistically amplify it. These multi-stressor dynamics exhibit significant regional and seasonal variation, with urban hotspots and latitudinal disparities being particularly evident. This data-driven mapping underscores the urgent need to shift research towards untangling these interactions. We conclude by advocating for enhanced monitoring, the development of advanced multi-source coupled models, and context-specific management strategies, such as optimized reservoir operations and riparian restoration, to mitigate compounded pressures and enhance ecosystem resilience under global change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100778"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145791423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reflections on delivering place-based climate risk data in support of local adaptation decisions","authors":"Adam J.P. Smith ,&nbsp;Asher Minns ,&nbsp;Robert J. Nicholls ,&nbsp;Anna Beswick ,&nbsp;Katie Jenkins ,&nbsp;Sandy Avrutin ,&nbsp;Craig Robson","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100701","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100701","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Strengthening the adaptive capacity of the UK, via national plans and local-scale interventions, requires easy access to climate risk information and adaptation scenarios. Stakeholder engagement can ensure the right balance between top-down prescriptive modelling, and bottom-up, solution-focussed and lived experience approaches. National-scale, spatially-explicit, integrated climate risk frameworks can help inform the needs of localised climate risk assessments, but there are barriers to local actors accessing the information.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100701"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143680996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of climate change and extreme weather warnings on ischemic heart disease mortality in the United States","authors":"Bao-Linh Tran,&nbsp;Wei-Chun Tseng,&nbsp;Chi-Chung Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100749","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100749","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To support adaptation strategies that reduce health risks from extreme climate exposure, it is essential to better understand the health impacts of temperature and evaluate the effectiveness of existing early warning systems. This study estimates the threshold effects of temperature and extreme weather warnings on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality, using U.S. panel data from 2015 to 2022. A panel threshold model was first applied to determine if temperature thresholds exist in the temperature-IHD mortality relationship, and Poisson Quasi-MLE was used to estimate the impacts of temperature and extreme weather warnings on IHD mortality across various temperature ranges. We found single temperature thresholds ranging from 16.4 °C (lag 1–4) to 17.6 °C (lag 0). Colder temperatures contribute to higher IHD mortality rates, with temperature decrease having a more adverse impact in warmer weather. Nationwide, increased IHD mortality is also associated with higher influenza prevalence, adverse COVID-19 hospitalizations, and increased air pressure in warm weather, as well as elevated <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>P</mi><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2.5</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> exposure in cold weather. The effectiveness of extreme weather warnings varies across temperature ranges and climate regions. Wind chill warnings (WCW) issuance is associated with an estimated 2–3 fewer IHD deaths per state per week nationwide and about 3–4 fewer IHD deaths per week in the Northwest and Southwest regions. Excessive heat warnings (EHW) had no protective impact nationwide but reduced mortality in the West. The study provides new insights into how climate factors and extreme weather warnings affect IHD mortality across temperature ranges, proposing enhanced proactive measures to adapt to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100749"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating farmers’ perceptions and climate change related apprehensions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan","authors":"Tehseen Javed ,&nbsp;Anni Deng ,&nbsp;Xinyi Chen ,&nbsp;Ning Yao ,&nbsp;Atif Zahoor ,&nbsp;Rahman Ullah","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100746","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100746","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Humanity’s future on Earth faces significant challenges due to the impacts of climate change. Pakistan is exceptionally vulnerable to the ongoing repercussions of climate change, due to its arid and semi-arid climate, which is further exacerbated by inadequate management of natural resources. Recognizing this global phenomenon is of utmost importance for farmers, as it significantly influences their adaptation strategies. This research examined farmers’ perceptions, encompassing their beliefs and concerns about climate change, as well as their perspectives on adapting to various challenges. Using structured interviews, data were collected from a randomly selected sample of 52 farmers across the Kohat, Hangu, and Karak districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The outcomes revealed that farmers primarily attribute climate change to human activities. A notable focus on the negative consequences of climate variations encompassed issues such as water scarcity, insect invasions, crop diseases, and increased thermal stress. The research also highlighted noteworthy barriers impeding adjustments, including limited awareness of effective coping strategies and inadequate state and financial support. The non-parametric assessment revealed minimal notable differences in farmers’ attitudes, anxieties regarding climate fluctuations, and views on the difficulties associated with adaptation when examined based on their demographic traits. Based on these discoveries, the government is advised to initiate capacity-building programs to enhance farmers’ ability to adapt to changing conditions. Furthermore, offering financial incentives wherever necessary could encourage the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, ultimately contributing to the establishment of a resilient national food system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100746"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145099472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Silos to Synergy: Conceptualizing an integrated infrastructure design for climate resilience in Rotterdam","authors":"Angela Ordóñez Llancce ,&nbsp;Yirang Lim ,&nbsp;Theresa Audrey O. Esteban ,&nbsp;Joep van Leeuwen ,&nbsp;Johan Ninan","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100691","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100691","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, municipalities have been recognised for their crucial role in protecting cities from climate change impacts by adopting mitigative and adaptive strategies to enhance climate resilience. However, anchoring these strategies demands multiple interventions, which are often hindered by the current siloed organization of departments and disciplines. An integrated infrastructure design approach (IIDA) can co-create a process that converges sectors, disciplines, and actors’ interests to tackle this challenge. To this end, this research explores how municipalities can effectively implement IIDA to enhance climate-resilient infrastructures. The city of Rotterdam served as a case study involving a thematic analysis of 21 interviews with internal actors of the municipality. This study identified 19 key factors influencing a municipality’s effectiveness in using an integrated design approach to enhance climate resilience. These influential factors belong to six different dimensions: Human Capacity, Organisational Culture, Governance, Communication, Project Development Process and Finance. The findings suggest that it is essential that actors within municipalities have soft skills such as proactivity and open-mindedness for collaboration. Furthermore, it is necessary to foster an innovative and collaborative culture to enable the development of pilot projects. This, in turn, helps update standards and scale up implementation by aligning integration at the three management levels: strategic, program, and project. Based on the findings, we recommend establishing a multi-dimensional baseline, setting up a communication strategy and tools, build human and institutional capacity through pilots and living labs. This can help municipalities implement an integrated infrastructure design in their organisation, offering a promising future in designing climate-resilient infrastructures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100691"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Householdś willingness to accept compensation for water supply interruptions caused by Wildfires: Evidence from Valparaíso, Chile","authors":"Fernanda Cepeda ,&nbsp;Luis Maldonado ,&nbsp;María Molinos-Senante","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100765","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100765","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wildfires increasingly threaten drinking water supply systems, leading to service interruptions that challenge water utilities. This study assesses the willingness to accept compensation (WTAC) for water supply interruptions due to wildfires in the Valparaíso region, Chile. Using a choice experiment methodology, we assess public preferences for compensation under two governance scenarios: interruptions managed by the water utility versus those managed by the municipality. Results indicate a strong rejection (70.19%) of increased service interruptions, even with financial compensation, highlighting consumer preference for reliability over cost savings. Frequency of interruptions emerged as the most influential factor, suggesting that reducing the number of disruptions is more critical than minimizing their duration or cost implications. Furthermore, respondents demonstrated greater trust in the water company compared to municipal management with an average WTAC of 0.744 US$/hour and 0.680 US$/hour, respectively. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for infrastructure investment, transparent governance, and alternative compensation approaches. Future research should explore regional variations, psychological and social dimensions, and long-term shifts in public attitudes toward WTAC in the face of climate-induced water challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100765"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145571454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Developing multi-risk DRM pathways — Lessons from four European case studies","authors":"Julius Schlumberger ,&nbsp;Andrew Warren ,&nbsp;Anne Sophie Daloz ,&nbsp;David Geurts ,&nbsp;Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler ,&nbsp;Lin Ma ,&nbsp;Noemi Padrón-Fumero ,&nbsp;Karina Reiter ,&nbsp;Robert Šakić Trogrlić ,&nbsp;Sharon Tatman ,&nbsp;Vanessa Banks ,&nbsp;Julia Crummy ,&nbsp;Jaime Díaz-Pacheco ,&nbsp;Pedro Dorta Antequera ,&nbsp;Sara García-González ,&nbsp;Abel López-Díez ,&nbsp;Tamara Lucía Febles Arévalo ,&nbsp;David Romero-Manrique ,&nbsp;Nikita Strelkovskii ,&nbsp;Silvia Torresan ,&nbsp;Marleen C. de Ruiter","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100753","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100753","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of climate change and socioeconomic developments, disaster risk is intensifying, driven not only by more frequent and severe hazard events but also by complex interactions between these events and underlying vulnerabilities. These interactions can amplify impacts and trigger cascading failures across sectors. Using the Canary Islands, the Danube Region, the North Sea, and Scandinavia as four case study regions, this research explores how the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for Multi-Risk (DAPP-MR) framework can support the development of integrated, adaptive disaster risk management (DRM) strategies to reduce risk while addressing these complex interactions. We examine how DAPP-MR enables a deeper understanding of multi-risk systems, facilitates stakeholder engagement, and structures the development of robust, cross-sectoral DRM pathways in these four qualitative applications. The findings indicate that DAPP-MR enables integrated, cross-sectoral thinking and encourages balancing short-term priorities and long-term needs. This research demonstrates that DAPP-MR offers a structured approach to unravelling the complex dynamics between hazards and sectors, while maintaining flexibility in analytical focus. This flexibility allows context-specific priorities to guide the analysis, but it can also make comparing outcomes across different applications more challenging. This study further underscores the need for additional tools to manage and explore the information to support the development and evaluation of multi-risk DRM pathways.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100753"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145361615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate and weather services can enhance Ethiopian farmers’ resilience to climate change: Economy-wide impact analysis","authors":"Seneshaw Tamru ,&nbsp;James Hansen ,&nbsp;Stephen Zebiak ,&nbsp;Abonesh Tesfaye ,&nbsp;Bart Minten ,&nbsp;Teferi Demissie ,&nbsp;Maren Radeny ,&nbsp;Kindie Tesfaye ,&nbsp;Dawit Solomon","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100725","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Weather and climate services (WCS) are particularly important in Sub-Saharan Africa, where weather-dependent agriculture is the main source of livelihood, and where erratic weather patterns and extreme weather events have major impacts on rural livelihoods and food security. However, despite their importance, their effects on the agriculture sector and the overall economy are not well understood. For the case of Ethiopia, we use a computable general equilibrium modeling approach with the latest Ethiopian social accounting matrix data to estimate the potential contribution of WCS to macroeconomic variables, including growth in gross domestic product nationally and by sector. The analysis incorporates results of a separate econometric analysis of household survey data from five major regions in Ethiopia, which showed WCS use is associated with increased agricultural productivity. We estimate that increased agricultural productivity associated with WCS contributes to overall economic growth of more than 6 %, with a likely positive effect on farmers’ resilience to climate variability and change. The positive impact of WCS on agricultural productivity propagate to the overall economy, as evidenced by the considerable positive effect on GDP especially from the more climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"49 ","pages":"Article 100725"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144562980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Livelihood diversification among women farmers in Nigeria’s flood-resilient drylands","authors":"Ummi Khalthum Mohammed ,&nbsp;Nicola Favretto","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100708","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100708","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Jigawa State, Nigeria, faces increasing vulnerability to recurrent floods, highlighting the need for alternative socio-economic strategies to enhance livelihood diversification and strengthen the resilience of the most vulnerable groups, particularly women farmers. This study explores the role of livelihood diversification in flood resilience through three key questions: (1) How frequent are floods in northern Nigeria, and what are their perceived impacts? (2) What livelihood diversification strategies do women farmers employ? and (3) What factors enable or hinder the adoption of diversified livelihoods? Data was collected via focus group discussions with women farmers from three communities, supplemented by semi-structured interviews with community leaders and institutional stakeholders, and analysed using coding and content analysis. Results on reported perceptions show that from 2013 to 2023 communities experienced an average of seven flood events, causing significant damage to homes and farmland. Women farmers diversify livelihoods by rotating fast-growing crops (e.g., beans, tomatoes, cassava), planting economic trees, raising livestock, and engaging in off-farm activities like petty trading. Enabling factors include building farmer and institutional stakeholders’ capacity, improving climate data access, supporting alternative income activities, strengthening agricultural extension, and providing infrastructural and financial support. However, barriers such as limited access to capital, agricultural insurance, and inequalities in resource distribution among women, along with cultural dynamics and conflicts, hinder progress. Awareness-raising and capacity-building are essential to overcoming these challenges and addressing social barriers. Additionally, limited institutional coordination and inadequate budgetary allocations exacerbate difficulties in achieving effective livelihood diversification for flood resilience. By revealing the factors influencing the resilience and vulnerability of rural women amid recurring floods in dryland Africa, the lessons learned help bridge key knowledge gaps and highlight essential enablers for strengthening adaptive capacities in flood-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"48 ","pages":"Article 100708"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143837829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Industry-focused and co-developed marine heatwave response plans are needed for enhancing climate resilience: Application to a vulnerable abalone industry","authors":"Melinda A. Coleman ,&nbsp;Matt J. Nimbs ,&nbsp;Curtis Champion","doi":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.crm.2025.100771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing strength and frequency of marine heatwaves is threatening the viability of vulnerable fisheries. Industry-focused marine heatwave response plans can reduce sensitivity and enhance the adaptive capacity of fisheries to climate extremes, but few such plans exist globally. Stakeholder knowledge elicitation is a core pillar of industry-focused marine heatwave response plans to ensure they are fit-for-purpose and are readily adopted by industry. We present the first marine heatwave response plan for an abalone industry; the eastern Australian abalone industry, that was co-developed in consultation with stakeholders whose knowledge of previous impacts of extreme thermal events and existing autonomous adaptation actions guided key components of the plan. This plan encompasses five core components: an early warning system, a response level assessment, example response actions and communications and capacity building strategies. Engagement with fisheries managers identified key capacity building pathways for incorporating marine heatwave preparedness into formal regulatory processes including harvest strategies and quota setting. We also present lessons learnt from the first enactment of this plan and recommendations for adapting this plan for other climate-vulnerable industries. This response plan for a climate-vulnerable industry demonstrates the capacity for co-developed, industry-focused plans to facilitate targeted and effective responses to marine heatwave events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54226,"journal":{"name":"Climate Risk Management","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100771"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}