The impact of climate change on household dietary diversity in Afghanistan

Abstract

Climate change adaptation policies and research have traditionally focused on dietary quantity, neglecting dietary quality, particularly in developing countries like Afghanistan. This study aims to identify how climate change affects household dietary diversity and whether the impacts are consistent across different food groups. To examine the impact of climate change on dietary diversity in Afghanistan, a climate change proxy variable (temperature) was created at the district level by calculating the difference from its long-term mean. Meanwhile, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) was obtained from three rounds of household survey data conducted between 2011 and 2017, which included information from 60,099 households. Negative binomial regression analysis reveals a positive association between climate change and HDDS. That is, higher temperatures would lead to the higher availability of diverse diets in Afghanistan. Interestingly, climate change appears to affect food groups heterogeneously. While staple food consumption frequency remains unaffected, non-staple food consumption increases with higher temperatures. The results remain consistent after incorporating precipitation and two lagged versions of temperature and precipitation into the model. Therefore, the climate adaptation policies of the government of Afghanistan should consider different policy implications for staple and non-staple foods. These findings have policy implications for achieving food security and climate change-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as SDG 2 (zero hunger) and SDG 13 (climate action).