Adaptive capacity management in municipalities in the Semiarid region of Brazil: Application of a composite index

Abstract

The balance between urban growth and global environmental and climate challenges, as well as their local implications, is a fundamental contemporary concern, and often neglected in government agendas at a local scale. The integration of these issues into urban and territorial planning is still incipient in the Brazilian context, especially in smaller cities and in regions such as the Semiarid region of Brazil, where socioeconomic challenges are particularly sensitive to climate impacts. This study diagnoses the adaptive capacity of local management in the Brazilian Semiarid region, revealing high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity that reflect inadequate integration of socio-environmental and climatic issues, as assessed through the Adaptive Capacity Management Index (IGCA). The method used is based on data from the Municipal Basic Information Survey (Munic/IBGE) and operates on a scale from 0 to 1, segmented into five strata corresponding to classification levels ranging from classification levels ranging from “very low” to “very high”. The “very high” stratum indicates a more critical scenario in terms of threats and vulnerabilities, while the “very low” stratum indicates deficiencies in risk management and adaptive capacity. IGCA scores ranged from 0.137 to 0.442, with 76% of municipalities classified as having low adaptive capacity. The operationalization is conducted through weighted variables and the additive approach of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using GIS software to map threats, vulnerabilities and adaptive management measures to climate change. The results obtained in 21 municipalities in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu River basin, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, reveal a high exposure to climate threats, particularly in relation to social vulnerability. This vulnerability is evident not only in the studied municipalities but likely throughout the region. Given this scenario of high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, significant efforts are needed to improve the adaptation and resilience capacity of these regions, including a more integrated approach to climate risk management, strengthening local governance and raising awareness of the importance of integrating climate and environmental issues in government policies.