Risk archetypes for European airports: moving towards climate change adaptation

Abstract

Critical infrastructures are potentially exposed elements to climate impacts, which implies consequences beyond the purely physical dimension, in the economic and social spheres. This study presents a multi-risk approach based on indicators that assesses multiple climate-related hazards, as well as the multiple dimensions of exposure and vulnerability, with European availability, under various climate change scenarios and time horizons. Based on this approach, an archetype-based critical infrastructure classification is proposed, which serves as a framework for designing adaptation strategies for these infrastructures. These archetypes facilitate the characterization of the different risk components —hazard, exposure, and vulnerability—individually, while maintaining a holistic perspective. Statistical and machine learning techniques are applied to the identification of patterns in the indicators defining the dimensions of risk and that characterize the risk archetypes. As a case study, this methodology is applied to airport infrastructures across Europe, resulting in an archetype-based classification that identifies 23 climate risk archetypes for European airports. The resulting archetypes not only enable the identification of analogous airports from a climate risk perspective but also highlight the primary sources of risk, serving as a valuable guide for adaptation decision-making.